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WTI-OIL

WTI (CRUDEOIL) – Finally bombed…Hello everyone, the count is gone and I was not on the right side. So good so far, but I do not give up reading the chart and share my ideas here. So, there is another count in the chart… I think, that the whole structure since the low in Feb 2016 at 26$ is corrective, because WTI has destroyed the impulsive count yesterday. In 2016 I felt not good, because the structure of the first movements up didn’t look impulsive rather corrective, but WTI was starting to new highs, so I changed my opinion. That eventually was wrong! Superordinate I now see a subordinate ABC-correction-pattern, which will lead us down to under 26$! Yes, under 26$. It may sound sick, but this is absolutely possible! And yes, there is a chance for new highs – absolutely. We should keep an eye on the structure of the movement up, which started today. I think this will be only a corrective wave 2 up, which I will use for a short-entry, if my actual count is right. The blue circle in the chart may be the sore point form where we have to make a decision: up for a final uptrend, or down for a massive downfall. Don’t hesitate to contact me, if you have any questions or other ideas! Take care tgo
TVC:USOIL
by HK-Capital-Management
LONG UGA @ $28.50 for Gasoline Futures bounce from $1.64Gasoline Futures (RBOB Gasoline Futures) likely counter trend bounce here off 200weekSMA support at $1.66 to reclaim long-term moving average support of 50monthSMA at $1.70, then rally to test 100weekSMA resistance at $1.80. Technical Analysis: - Gasoline Futures (RBOB Gasoline Futures) now testing long-term support of 200weekSMA at $1.66. - $1.66 also strong price support from Feb 2018 for potential double bottom pattern - Daily & Weekly RSI extremely oversold - Daily MACD record lows - 50monthSMA long-term support sitting at $1.70 to continue uptrend from 2016 lows - Potential bottom hammer candle on hourly chart today at $1.66 Fundamental Analysis: Over recent weeks, we have seen an almost perfect bearish storm in the Crude Oil market that sent the price of futures from a high of $76 to low of $61, a decline of about 19% in less than one month. Rising production, increasing inventories, a strong dollar, concerns over trade, and the realization that the sanctions on Iran include some exceptions, all led the price of the energy commodity lower in a dramatic corrective move. These factors have had a greater impact on its bi-product Gasoline, which is also undergoing a seasonal bearish period during the winter months. However, we feel this move has been overextended to the downside as there are still 3 fundamental reasons why oil is close to low and could spark a counter trend rally in Gasoline. - Turmoil in the Middle East could result in a decrease in production and rapid price increase - OPEC expected to cut production at their bi-annual meeting Dec. 6th - Pullback of USD from highs due to US election results could relieve some of the bearish weight on commodity prices - Demand for the energy commodity remains strong with increasing population and rising heating oil cracks
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by CashFlo_Trading
USOIL Trend pullbackApologies for late post here... WTI testing the multi month trend line. Recent move higher in oil was due to strong global growth and demand for oil and after US-administration confirmed they would impose sanctions on Iranian exports, the price of oil began to rally in fears of supply risk. As such traders pushed price higher ahead of the November deadline pricing in ahead of time. (buy the rumor sell the fact). Since then profit taking has occurred and then risk sentiment turned negative as US equities sold off sharply. Now were hearing fears that 2019 global growth will slow, China is slowing, EU growth is non existent and now the US may potentially slow too, this affecting demand side for oil. However none of this has actually happened yet. Looking at demand side: Global growth is still strong... On friday we get the latest US GDP figures for Q3 and currently in the midst of earnings season (the busiest week with 150 SP components reporting this week including (AMZN). Supply side: Iranian sanctions and not enough spare capacity to fill the shortfall left by the sanctions. Theres also the kashoggi case, where by the US are not going to be happy if the Saudis are caught red handed in the assassination, if the US then decided to punish Saudi Arabia, will the Saudis retaliate by putting an embargo on oil, driving the oil price alot higher, most unlikely scenario but could happen. Technically, WTI is testing multi month trendline support and 200DMA is close below. Bullish bias on oil off of this trendline back towards October high based on strong global demand and tightening supply. If the SP recovers, global risk sentiment improves, with a solid GDP print on Friday could be enough to send oil higher... However, as always if the trendline breaks and risk sentiment continues to worsen, I wouldnt hesitate to take a short position in this market on a re test of the trendline from the backside.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by AlexClarkFX