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WTI-OIL

Trade the Price! Hold Long Until Trend BreakWTI Jun18 CL1! 20 Apr $68.06 May closed Friday with a final OI of 3.7k contracts. June volume was down 140k on the day and OI reduced 3.1k Generally volume will trade lower for the remainder of this month then start to pick up early May and increase leading into contract close on May 22. So I would expect price to fade during this month, in the absence of an event, and then rally during May, but remember everything is relative. So fades and rallies will be around significant support and resistance and what price is doing - Not supposed to do. Right now, the uptrend is holding. My drawn rectangle is the activity area. Price needs to break and close below the uptrend line to suggest down side. Otherwise it is still up. It is dangerous to pre-empt a change in trend! Don't do it! wait until the upward sloping line breaks with a close. If it does break, first support is at $66.60 then the swing low at $65.56. Fibs are at (69.56 - 61.81):= 7.75 * 0.5 := $65.68; $64.77; $66.60 which align with Supports. Above major resistance is at a stratospheric $73.75, with secondary resistance at $69.70 and a significant $71.30 I favour the downside initially, but for once, I will follow my own advice. I have outlined our trading strategy and plans in an earlier post - trade the channel. Now you know what I know. Trade using your brains and what you see, not emotion nor opinion. ... just another 2c worth ..
NYMEX:CL1!
by Oh_If_Only
Recoil Incomplete Retracement Short then Longny journey is normally predetermined with some planning (what time is my bus, flight, train?, what time should I leave home, hotel?, where will I get fuel, accommodation, meals etc). All sensible trading should have similar plans, and back up plans. Lately I have noticed considerable ES activity outside US trading hours. This must scare some traders when they are spilling their morning coffee, and they see their long/short is 150 pts against them and their market hasn't even opened! So today I thought I would share my plans for my oil journey. Of particular note are three visible patterns: The ascending (flat topped) triangle at $66 (Resistance), the rising chanel, which we have been trading of late, and the Support line at $63. Ascending triangles are considered consolidation patterns. They normally like three or more hits (about 2/3 length) before penetration, BUT it is NOT a triangle until after it has broken out. In our case our lower channel boundary is the upward sloping radian, and the intersection occurs late May. So we will buy on: Pullback to our support line at $63; and/or the lower upward sloping radian (between $62 and $63 until Apr 20). Beware this date - it is Contract Expiry (CL1! ... rem this chart is CL2!) so expect churn during the preceeding week. Our Stop is the swing Low of Apr 6 - a few pts below (say) $61.70 Post Apr 20 our Stop will sit a few pts below our $63 support or any higher swing lows that occur subsequently. Our initial target is overhead Resistance at $66 Our Risk Reward becomes (66-63):(63-61.70) or 3 : 1.30 Watch for a coil to reverse a low on an incomplete retrace towards the lower channel line. Upside breech and close above this Resistance then puts the triangle in play. Normall breech is followed by a pullback retest of the break out price. So we would buy $66 Stop will be any swing low close below this breakout price Target becomes the Resistance - radian low + Resistance (66-58)+66 or $74 but lets gets the break out first then we will concentrate on the next leg of our journey.
NYMEX:CL2!Long
by Oh_If_Only
CL2! WTI Wedge wobble then LongHello Supporters, Followers and General Interest Sideliners, Ok my rectangle got hit and we are sitting on major support. Take Short profit now. This price action is now taking on a developing wedge appearance. I believe price will wobble here for a few days then break to the up side. Take a Long position if the Red indicator line gets above 40 then rolls over. Ideally wait for a second lower peak and then a move down for entry - similar to a divergence. Also watch the MACD Histogram for higher trough bars. I will update with price targets over the week end. I will also provide my view on possible down side breaks indicating $60 is the new target. Thank you for support and interest in my views. ... just my 2c worth
NYMEX:CL2!
by Oh_If_Only
5
CL2! Jun18 WTI Short UpdateOk the small wedge I described in my post of Apr 03 ($65.11) penetrated and broke to the downside. My target was $62.06 which was achieved on Apr 04. Previous support at $64 was broken and the next 2 days were spent testing that level which was now providing resistance and this has held. This suggests further downside bounded my the downtrend line (resistance) and a major uptrend line at low $60's. I expect this to be tested within the next day or so. I expect it to be penetrated to the downside into my green rectangle, then to recover. Failure to recover, opens up the next support area at $60 But one step at a time. Plan A: Add to short on retest of current resistance at $63.80 Close everything on break close above recent swing high $64.15 (including slippage). This will get me out with a small profit on my original position. Ride the short to the uptrend line circa $62.40 and WAIT. Continue breathing. On break close below trend add to short and ride into the rectangle. Plan B : If trend holds and bar moves higher, look for an exit, (pull back, pause etc.) Remember you still have a nice little profit. On to the Silver charts ... Warnings: Pin Bar, MACH Histogram forms a higher low, ADX Redline forms a lower high. That trend line I have drawn connecting High of Feb 26 and Low of Apr 4. I believe that is going to be hit and that is my prime exit point! Ok Help this helps with my concepts of classic technical analysis. Thank you for your consideration and support ... just another 2c worth ...
NYMEX:CL2!Short
by Oh_If_Only
2
WTI short - only if you believe market is fractalWTI has made an interesting pattern recently. It is almost identical to the one made at the beginning of wave 2. See the blue highlighted box on the chart. The larger box is a measurement of wave 2 correction, as I expect wave 4 correction to take a similar amount of time. Interestingly it suggests that WTI is likely to be in correction for the next 10 months. In any case, from this point forward, if my analysis is correct, the only way from here is down. As a measured move, I believe it is likely to go to $57-58 area. The risk reward here is very attractive as stops can be placed above wave 3 high. I believe the market is not expected to move very much in the short term due to Easter break so this idea should be valid until the end of next week. Simply sharing my opinion, this is not a trade call. If you find this idea useful, why not give a like, comment or share it with others. Thanks.
FX:USOILShort
by WaqasRaja
WTI Daily Update (6/2/18)Wait for a break before a trade. Price is sitting at the support zone now. No break no trade. Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable for your own financial situation. SonicR Mastery team is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by sonicrmastery
Technical Analysis WTI January 9th 2018After an upside rally since June 2017, the WTI found a "two year" resistance (May-June 2015) at 62.50. If the price breaks above this resistance zone, it is a good opportunity to "buy and hold" expecting to find the next resistance level at 67. Otherwise we can sell short, expecting the quote make a retracement at the fibonacci level 0.236 at 57.70 (previous: resistance-support zone) as a first bearish target, at this level my recommendation is to wait for confirmation to buy (keeping the bull trend), if the price breaks below this point, our next target is the fibonacci level 0.382 at 55 (previous: resistance-support zone).
TVC:USOIL
by reembegil
3