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WTI-OIL

OIL - Waiting for a break (5/12/17)There could be signs of weakness coming in. Waiting for a break of 57.2 Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable for your own financial situation. SonicR Mastery team is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by sonicrmastery
Hedge funds don't buy into OPEC cutsUS Dollar Greenback gradually turns into an offensive although a buildup of longs on US currency looks quite cautious showed a pullback during the Asian session. Futures for the dollar index are planning a march to the level of 93.50 thanks to the efforts of Republicans to pass the fiscal bill and slightly biased in the positive side US data. Macro figures shows steady pickup in US manufacturing sector and some subsidence of the consumer sector, but the first is more legible in tracking economic effects, demonstrating the sustainability of the country's economic growth. Republicans of the Senate and the House of Representatives have to reconcile their versions of the tax reform and the market believes that it won’t be a problem. A large part of tax cuts intended for corporations is postponed until 2019, so investors are increasingly skeptical about stimulating effect of the reform. For example, Goldman Sachs considered that the continuation of global recovery next year will lead to capital flows into emerging markets with higher yields that will become a hard test for the dollar. To offset an appeal of foreign markets, the Fed will have to accelerate the rate of increase in borrowing costs, but inflation below the target level of two percent ties hands to the regulator. According to Trump's plan, the dollar should be cheaper to stimulate exports, making US products abroad cheaper. Therefore, in long-term rally of the dollar there is more and more doubt and investors are in no hurry to price into the dollar a more aggressive Fed next year. US trade deficit in October was the highest in last nine months due to rising oil prices, as well as a failure in competitiveness with major trading partners - China and Mexico. And this is despite the fact that US exports to these two countries have reached a peak of three years. Donald Trump has more and more arguments to enforce his protectionist initiatives, which is a time bomb in US political relations with trading partners. According to the report of US government, foreign trade accounted for 0.43 percentage points from the growth of 3.3 percent of GDP in the third quarter. According to the Trump administration, eliminating the skew in trade together with tax breaks can bring the rate of GDP growth to a stable trajectory of 3%. British pound The British currency has sharply lost a bullish aim, as news on progress of talks on the EU deal last week was again replaced by reports of sticky dissent. Moreover, on Wednesday the British TV channel reported that the police could prevent an attempt on Prime Minister Teresa May, which indicates that the course taken by the conservatives to find trade-off with the European Union can have a strong opposition. Bearish pressure led the GBPUSD pair to the level of 1.3370, and a breakdown at 1.3350 would likely signal a signal for further decline. The oil market Optimism after OPEC has come to naught and now investors are shifting focus to the dynamics of American production, which has already reached parity with Saudi Arabia and Russia. The emergence of a third major player in the market that does not contact OPEC creates depressing prospects for a global supply, so investors are trying to analyze the demand side for positioning. Brent and WTI lost more than half a percent on Wednesday and are likely to find support somewhat lower before investors consider long positions. The API report released on Tuesday showed mixed dynamics - crude oil stocks fell sharply, while reserves of gasoline and distillate rose, which indirectly speaks of saturation of the domestic market after a shortage due to natural disasters. Arthur Idiatulin
FX:USOILShort
by Tickmill
Markets try to make light of US fiscal reform Greenback US Dollar reinforced position on Monday against major peers as Republicans in Senate released their version of the tax reform, which now will need to be discussed with the House of Representatives.The vote in the Senate on Saturday had a positive outcome for the Trump fiscal initiative, which provides sharp tax cuts for firms from 35% to 20%, as well as tax incentives for individuals. Reaching agreement on the bill in the Upper House where Republicans retain a small majority sharply increased chances of passing the bill. However, as I said earlier, the Senate is likely to propose a "soft version" of the reform that is already priced in the market, so stock markets and greenback response is likely to be low-key. In addition, the tax reduction project for companies has a deferred nature, so that the fiscal momentum turns out to be a bit stretched in time, which also keeps investors from building hopes for further expansion of the economy. December rate increase is almost 100% likely to be priced in the market while little is known about next year hikes except from vague Fed comments on the normalization cycle. As expected, the regulator will move the rate 3 to 4 times in next year. Dollar index maintains a balance near the level of 93.00. The data from ISM was a bit disappointing on Friday as it turned out to be worse than the forecasts, but now investors' focus remains on potential surprises in the implementation of the tax cuts. Rig count back to growth Oil prices started the week with a decline, as the report of Baker Hughes showed last week that the drilling activity of shale companies gained further momentum. Rig count increased from 923 to 929, stoking fears that US oil companies will use OPEC's trade-offs to increase market share. British Pound The British pound also fixes losses, but remains tuned to growth amid notable success of the British government in the deal with European Union. The main interest is the meeting between Prime Minister Teresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on the further settlement of differences in the draft "divorce" of Britain with the bloc. Bitcoin Bitcoin again updated its highs on the weekend, reaching a record high after last week CFTC approved bitcoin trading on the largest stock exchanges of CME Group derivatives and CBOE Global Markets. The price jumped Sunday to a record $ 11,800, but later dipped to $ 10,300 before winning back part of it gains. Arthur Idiatulin
Long
by Tickmill
OIL IN FRAME 4 H (STILL SHORT)OIL , They Have 3 Wolfe wave (x,y,c) all this Wave its Bearish & may any Wave Correction for any Fibo Resistant , I would Say the price can bullish to (54.55 in the daily frame and go Down) In 4 Hours Frame all the Target in Chart , and Good Entry To Sell after 52.89 T1 @ 52.17 T2 @50.66 T3 @ 49.22 Note that there is saturation of my purchase and be careful may Will take one Target and the price Go up # My Idea wait the price Down To buy From price ( 51-49) for large Capital
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Alrawe
USDCAD h4 chart setup idea for next weeks long at 1.2520Buy it on pullback around the ma50 at 1.2520 and the down bull T-line of the chanel place your stop under the Chanel T-line and the ma50 around 1.2465 the risk reward very interresting. With the last Data with got it lest week it up the % of fed rates hike in december and 3 hike in 2018 especially the average earning per hours (wage picked up,that want the fed)=inflation on good way +all ISM nearly at record high The NFP number e not care much as US get the storm so is a non event the earning was more important this time and also 4.2% in non-umployment buy at 1.2520 target at 1.2665 SL at 1.2470 so is 145 pips gains against 50 pips lost RR= 1/3.0
Long
by corsicasia
WTI Relative value to G4 currencies: aka Krümels Voodoo chart . So this is an attempt to show my "Relative Value" chart, and why currency spreads can help both identify max/min ranges, and when WTI couples with other G4 currency. Question /Scenario: You own an oil company. You store, buy & sell locally. You have locations in all major countries. You buy in any (G4) currency, but mostly in the currency of the actual sale country. You do not transport, except locally. At the EOD (hour, sec) you need a single number that represents the value in US. Dollar of " ALL " your inventory. What amount is that? What is that value in dollars? Understand that matrix and you understand my Relative Values.. So the basic premise is Dollar is base. Oil is priced in dollars. BUT its value to Dxy changes. If no WTI was bought or sold for two hours.. but Dollar traded and moved.. so would the price of oil. Not tic for tic.. ( remember oil not trading in example ) but when oil did open to trade it would balance to DXY (assuming no other currencies in this pretend market). That spread is the base measurement . Unfortunately it is not as simple as Dollar moves up so oil moves down (or up). Oil is priced and sold in other currencies around the world. So (for example) 100 barrels trade in 70% USD, 30% ERU.. then it would stand to reason that the Value of oil is somewhere Between those two values, but closer to US dollar (in this example). This happens all day long.. but because we have multiple currencies, those spreads are all different. I use the main currencies listed Eur, Dxy, yen, pound. (G4 ). *Read*. Most important.. (where most people have a problem) is oil has it's own fate. . that is to say if some big whale dumps oil, it will move down on that.. and that will not couple with any spread. That is a true value change of oil, and spreads need to be realigned/ calibrated. The problem is TV only gives you (2) two scales. (Left & Right) If the left is raw Dxy no equations, right is raw WTI no equations.. the 2nd, 3rd, etc.. currencies will be off screen. So you must normalize them to fit left scale. I have screwed with this normalization the most. You can't just say x=2, y=10, so I'll just take -8 from y to balance both at 2. Because you removed 80% of Y. The Y wave needs to scale with DXY(over 60min). Dxy down=Pound up (for example) you'll know you have it right when you can align the symmetric Lastly it is a work in progress.. (over 1yr) and I still don't have all answers but it is much better than when I started. Ok... preamble done. Let's add a currency. We will start with Pound for example. (Just because today that is the couple). Oil right -DXY left , no equations. Scaled. Add Pound - normalized Add Yen - normalized Add EUR- normalized Add S&P - normalized* (more on S&P next note) ALL currencies – normalized All - normalized, scaled, and tweaked.. (aka the Tea Leaves ) More on next post... Good Luck! *note & question. If I over explain, if I'm over simple in the steps I use, I use a wrong term, and/or it seems elementary , I apologize. I get A lot of questions.. not everyone is at same level, (most are above me..lol). Also because this is not a system used by many (any?) there is no web page description or known indicator like RSI, Fibs, or MACD to point too.
TVC:USOIL
by BigEz
4
US OIL (WTI) - 1W - Bolling Band SupportIf you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment! Underlying: USOIL (WTI) Time frame: 1W Last week I posted about oil continuing on its up trend. Although last week was a declining week I am still looking at it to increase in price over the long term. Why? The Bolling Bands Centre Line is acting like it does when it becomes support. You see a break of the centre line which has already happened, you then see a "re-test" as the line makes a "level off" print. And then from there we will see a further increase. I have also shown on the MACD how I believe it will act, now that oil it starting to pass through the centre line and historic averages, most of the time is does not tend to change direction during the cross over. Again, this week you might see a further sell off but it will be to the bollinger band centre line at 47.75.
TVC:USOIL
by SocialTrading
USOIL - Expecting one more down moveWTI has completed a 3-wave move forming the WXY structure between mid June to early August; and price has since pushed lower from the high of 50.41 to the recent low at 46.48. According to our analysis, the price of WTI has been developing in a corrective nature since the recent low was established. This gives us the reason to believe that there is a very high probability that price can still make one more low before any potential up move. While price may not reach our expected target, we will not be rushing into longing WTI at the moment. Short term wise, we would prefer to stick with the sell side on WTI.
TVC:USOILShort
by KarYong
UK data update signals a boost from export may fade soonPreliminary data has been released on British economy which revealed little to no positive surprises for Pound investors. The country's GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter, but export growth slowed to 0.7% despite a 1% forecast. This suggests that the devaluation of the pound that occurred after the country left the European Union has exhausted itself as a driver for the export sector, since the national currency has since been able to win back a significant share of losses. The increase in business investment has not changed compared to the first quarter, what indicates that the burden of economic growth shifts back to consumers whose budgets has squeezed out in purchasing power due to the deterioration of the inflation front. The government has taken up the matter by increasing fiscal support to the economy. In the second quarter, budget expenditures increased by 0.6% with a forecast of 0.3%. Increased intervention indicates that the government is worried about the economic situation in the country. The pound climbed to positive territory after the release of data on economic growth, but the outlook remains bearish, as there are no visible fundamental reasons for strengthening the economy while investors are building up short positions on the British currency. On August 18, the net position on the pound was -31K positions, declining for the fourth consecutive week. Pressure on the British currency, however, may be offset with peaceful tone of central banks bosses of the United States and Europe, who will discuss key issues of the development of monetary policy in Jackson Hole on Friday. Markets are preparing for the event by reducing positions on risky instruments. US stock exchanges finished Wednesday in the red, Asian stocks picked up pessimism, but it was not transferred to European markets, which hold quite solid. Europe's main stock markets DAX, Stoxx 50 and CAC 40 tempered gains, emerging markets are also pretty brave in the eyes of great uncertainty in the form of speeches by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. The US dollar retreated after yesterday's decline, the dynamics of gold show that now the asset is in a state of equilibrium (all major economic and political events are priced in) and the future depends on the signals from Jackson Hole. Oil quotes cut growth, meeting with relief the bullish EIA report yesterday. Traders looking for signals from the oil market should pay attention to the marginal productivity of the shale rigs, which is falling very fast, the pace of introduction of new ones, as well as the dynamics of debt financing of shale companies, since 2015-2016 turned out to be unprofitable for them and now they need to borrow to strike the balance sheet. Political crises, such as in Venezuela and instability in North Africa and the Middle East, can also give an idea of the changes in world output.
by Tickmill