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WTI-OIL

USOIL - Expecting one more down moveWTI has completed a 3-wave move forming the WXY structure between mid June to early August; and price has since pushed lower from the high of 50.41 to the recent low at 46.48. According to our analysis, the price of WTI has been developing in a corrective nature since the recent low was established. This gives us the reason to believe that there is a very high probability that price can still make one more low before any potential up move. While price may not reach our expected target, we will not be rushing into longing WTI at the moment. Short term wise, we would prefer to stick with the sell side on WTI.
TVC:USOILShort
by KarYong
UK data update signals a boost from export may fade soonPreliminary data has been released on British economy which revealed little to no positive surprises for Pound investors. The country's GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter, but export growth slowed to 0.7% despite a 1% forecast. This suggests that the devaluation of the pound that occurred after the country left the European Union has exhausted itself as a driver for the export sector, since the national currency has since been able to win back a significant share of losses. The increase in business investment has not changed compared to the first quarter, what indicates that the burden of economic growth shifts back to consumers whose budgets has squeezed out in purchasing power due to the deterioration of the inflation front. The government has taken up the matter by increasing fiscal support to the economy. In the second quarter, budget expenditures increased by 0.6% with a forecast of 0.3%. Increased intervention indicates that the government is worried about the economic situation in the country. The pound climbed to positive territory after the release of data on economic growth, but the outlook remains bearish, as there are no visible fundamental reasons for strengthening the economy while investors are building up short positions on the British currency. On August 18, the net position on the pound was -31K positions, declining for the fourth consecutive week. Pressure on the British currency, however, may be offset with peaceful tone of central banks bosses of the United States and Europe, who will discuss key issues of the development of monetary policy in Jackson Hole on Friday. Markets are preparing for the event by reducing positions on risky instruments. US stock exchanges finished Wednesday in the red, Asian stocks picked up pessimism, but it was not transferred to European markets, which hold quite solid. Europe's main stock markets DAX, Stoxx 50 and CAC 40 tempered gains, emerging markets are also pretty brave in the eyes of great uncertainty in the form of speeches by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. The US dollar retreated after yesterday's decline, the dynamics of gold show that now the asset is in a state of equilibrium (all major economic and political events are priced in) and the future depends on the signals from Jackson Hole. Oil quotes cut growth, meeting with relief the bullish EIA report yesterday. Traders looking for signals from the oil market should pay attention to the marginal productivity of the shale rigs, which is falling very fast, the pace of introduction of new ones, as well as the dynamics of debt financing of shale companies, since 2015-2016 turned out to be unprofitable for them and now they need to borrow to strike the balance sheet. Political crises, such as in Venezuela and instability in North Africa and the Middle East, can also give an idea of the changes in world output.
by Tickmill
OPEC cuts backfire as shale firms thwart rebalance goalsThe future of OPEC's output cut deal will be determined at a meeting in November, said the Oil minister of Kuwait. This news was a signal that members of the cartel may revise quotas for production earlier than expected. In May, the members of the organization decided to extend the agreement for another nine months, until March 2018, but pressure from the shale producers may force OPEC to re-join the price fight. So far, the cartel is responsible for monitoring compliance with the agreements, which by the way, were taken fairly tepid. So in Iraq, production decreased by only 28% from the proposed quota, while in other countries the fulfillment of obligations fell to 75%. The outcome of a technical meeting of OPEC in St. Petersburg was the introduction of quota for Nigeria at 1.8M barrels. The country has not yet reached this limit. Both good and bad implications foroil market sentiments had the news that decision of the world's largest mining company BHP Billiton to sell shale business in the US. It should be noted that a number of shareholders of the concern, such as Elliott Management Corp. And Tribeca Investment Partners repeatedly called on the leadership to take such a step, which could be dictated by the increased risks in the future for this industry. Probably the company decided to protect itself in advance from the difficulties of fighting for a market share with OPEC producers, foreseeing a limited potential for growth. This version is very plausible, given that the last fiscal year the concern ended up with a profit of $5.89 billion. Today, oil prices continue to retrace, although less pronounced than on Monday. Reports API and EIA on Wednesday likely will not be able to realize their capabilities of market catalysts, given the decline in US inventories due to seasonal increased fuel consumption. On Friday, an assessment of the prospects for global growth by the heads of the Central Bank at the symposium in Jackson Hole may be reflected in oil quotations, as the supply side dilemma forced participants to pay attention to the sentiments on demand side. Economic expectations in the euro area have deteriorated slightly, the ZEW poll showed. The index fell from 17.5 to 10 points in August, the average forecast was 15.0 points. The US currency recoups after a massive sell-off on Monday, but futures on the federal funds rate continue to show pessimism in anticipation of Yellen's peaceful remarks on Friday. However, given the overheating of the US stock market, strong consumer sentiment and demographic changes hindering inflation (which is beyond the control of the Fed), the regulator's head will probably indicate that monetary policy will be conducted according to the planned rate. Arthur Idiatulin, Tickmill Market Analyst
TVC:USOILShort
by Tickmill
1
WTI Short OpportunityWhen the market bounced from the uptrend line, we could expect an upward movement to the up border of a price channel. Now price is in a possible reversal zone formed by the downtrend line, 50.00 resistance level and the up border of the channel. It's short opportunity. When we get a confimed reversal signal, we'll have to open short trades. Stop orders for these trades must be placed above the local swing high and the downtrend line. Profit target should be at 47.00 level. A reversal signal will be confirmed when we see a bearish candle or a reversal candlestick pattern near the downtrend line and RSI reversal in the overbought zone.
FX:USOILShort
by DLavrov
4
WTI: a bit higher before fallingWTI is going to set higher and fulfill a lower top in the long term chart. The momentum is going to cross below the zero level. Investors are doubting and the potential upside for the Bollinger Band indicator is null. The main indicator continues its declining path and suggests that a trend reversal is unrealistic. After completing the ABC Wave of the Elliot Wave, the oil prices can explore lower levels. The start of a deeper correction to maximum 39 - 40 dollars can be confirmed by falling trough the uptrend in the momentum of Chaikin. After hitting the 39-40 dollar range, the price can recover to maximum 45 dollars and close at a level of 42 dollars. On the long term I'm still very negative due to the oversupplies which oil companies and OPEC leaders are facing with. On the long term an oil price of 30 dollars is not unrealistic... - So: long on the short term and short on the long term !
TVC:USOILShort
by beursfanaat
WTI Symmetrical Triangle The symmetrical triangle usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. But sometimes it can give trend reversal signals. We can see the downt trend and price reversal from 42.00 support level. We should expect that the market breaks the uptrend line and we'll see continuation of the down trend. But at the same time we must be ready if price breaks the downtrend line and it will be a signal for possible upward movement. We have to use pending orders for entry. Place sell-stop orders below the uptrend line and 44.00 support level. Stop orders for short trades must be higher than 46.50 level. Profit targets can be near 42.00, 41.00 and 39.00 support levels. Place buy-stop orders above 46.00 level with stop orders below 43.50 level. Profit target for long trades can be 48.00, 49.00 and 50.00 resistance levels.
FX:USOIL
by DLavrov
4
WTI Short OpportunityPrice reversed from Kijun line and moved lower. RSI confirmes price reversal. DMI confirms trend market conditions and allows trading. We have short opportunity. Sell below 44.50 level with stop above 47.50 local high. Profit target should be at 42.00 support level. Also pay attention to a bullish divergence formed by price and RSI. It can be a signal that the market can start upward movement. Trading volume for such short trades must be small and you should use trailing stop orders for quick exit if the market starts moving against your trades.
FX:USOILShort
by DLavrov
5
WTI Long OpportunityPrice broke Moving Averages with period 100 and we got a trend reversal signal. After that price moved up and reached 47.00 level. This level could stop and reverse the market. When price dropped from 47.00 level to Moving Average with period 50 we got a buy signal. We could open long trades higher than 46.00 level with stop below 44.50 level. If you did not open the long trades based on this buy signal, the next possible level for buying will be above 47.35. We should place buy-stop orders at this entry level and stop order below the local swing low. If price breaks 47.00 level, probably we'll have up movement to 50.00 level. This resistance level will be good for closing long trades in profit. As for indicators, MACD histogram confirms up movement and DMI allows open long trades.
FX:USOILLong
by DLavrov
11