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WTI-OIL

USDCAD h4 chart setup idea for next weeks long at 1.2520Buy it on pullback around the ma50 at 1.2520 and the down bull T-line of the chanel place your stop under the Chanel T-line and the ma50 around 1.2465 the risk reward very interresting. With the last Data with got it lest week it up the % of fed rates hike in december and 3 hike in 2018 especially the average earning per hours (wage picked up,that want the fed)=inflation on good way +all ISM nearly at record high The NFP number e not care much as US get the storm so is a non event the earning was more important this time and also 4.2% in non-umployment buy at 1.2520 target at 1.2665 SL at 1.2470 so is 145 pips gains against 50 pips lost RR= 1/3.0
Long
by corsicasia
WTI Relative value to G4 currencies: aka Krümels Voodoo chart . So this is an attempt to show my "Relative Value" chart, and why currency spreads can help both identify max/min ranges, and when WTI couples with other G4 currency. Question /Scenario: You own an oil company. You store, buy & sell locally. You have locations in all major countries. You buy in any (G4) currency, but mostly in the currency of the actual sale country. You do not transport, except locally. At the EOD (hour, sec) you need a single number that represents the value in US. Dollar of " ALL " your inventory. What amount is that? What is that value in dollars? Understand that matrix and you understand my Relative Values.. So the basic premise is Dollar is base. Oil is priced in dollars. BUT its value to Dxy changes. If no WTI was bought or sold for two hours.. but Dollar traded and moved.. so would the price of oil. Not tic for tic.. ( remember oil not trading in example ) but when oil did open to trade it would balance to DXY (assuming no other currencies in this pretend market). That spread is the base measurement . Unfortunately it is not as simple as Dollar moves up so oil moves down (or up). Oil is priced and sold in other currencies around the world. So (for example) 100 barrels trade in 70% USD, 30% ERU.. then it would stand to reason that the Value of oil is somewhere Between those two values, but closer to US dollar (in this example). This happens all day long.. but because we have multiple currencies, those spreads are all different. I use the main currencies listed Eur, Dxy, yen, pound. (G4 ). *Read*. Most important.. (where most people have a problem) is oil has it's own fate. . that is to say if some big whale dumps oil, it will move down on that.. and that will not couple with any spread. That is a true value change of oil, and spreads need to be realigned/ calibrated. The problem is TV only gives you (2) two scales. (Left & Right) If the left is raw Dxy no equations, right is raw WTI no equations.. the 2nd, 3rd, etc.. currencies will be off screen. So you must normalize them to fit left scale. I have screwed with this normalization the most. You can't just say x=2, y=10, so I'll just take -8 from y to balance both at 2. Because you removed 80% of Y. The Y wave needs to scale with DXY(over 60min). Dxy down=Pound up (for example) you'll know you have it right when you can align the symmetric Lastly it is a work in progress.. (over 1yr) and I still don't have all answers but it is much better than when I started. Ok... preamble done. Let's add a currency. We will start with Pound for example. (Just because today that is the couple). Oil right -DXY left , no equations. Scaled. Add Pound - normalized Add Yen - normalized Add EUR- normalized Add S&P - normalized* (more on S&P next note) ALL currencies – normalized All - normalized, scaled, and tweaked.. (aka the Tea Leaves ) More on next post... Good Luck! *note & question. If I over explain, if I'm over simple in the steps I use, I use a wrong term, and/or it seems elementary , I apologize. I get A lot of questions.. not everyone is at same level, (most are above me..lol). Also because this is not a system used by many (any?) there is no web page description or known indicator like RSI, Fibs, or MACD to point too.
TVC:USOIL
by BigEz
4
US OIL (WTI) - 1W - Bolling Band SupportIf you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment! Underlying: USOIL (WTI) Time frame: 1W Last week I posted about oil continuing on its up trend. Although last week was a declining week I am still looking at it to increase in price over the long term. Why? The Bolling Bands Centre Line is acting like it does when it becomes support. You see a break of the centre line which has already happened, you then see a "re-test" as the line makes a "level off" print. And then from there we will see a further increase. I have also shown on the MACD how I believe it will act, now that oil it starting to pass through the centre line and historic averages, most of the time is does not tend to change direction during the cross over. Again, this week you might see a further sell off but it will be to the bollinger band centre line at 47.75.
TVC:USOIL
by SocialTrading
USOIL - Expecting one more down moveWTI has completed a 3-wave move forming the WXY structure between mid June to early August; and price has since pushed lower from the high of 50.41 to the recent low at 46.48. According to our analysis, the price of WTI has been developing in a corrective nature since the recent low was established. This gives us the reason to believe that there is a very high probability that price can still make one more low before any potential up move. While price may not reach our expected target, we will not be rushing into longing WTI at the moment. Short term wise, we would prefer to stick with the sell side on WTI.
TVC:USOILShort
by KarYong
UK data update signals a boost from export may fade soonPreliminary data has been released on British economy which revealed little to no positive surprises for Pound investors. The country's GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter, but export growth slowed to 0.7% despite a 1% forecast. This suggests that the devaluation of the pound that occurred after the country left the European Union has exhausted itself as a driver for the export sector, since the national currency has since been able to win back a significant share of losses. The increase in business investment has not changed compared to the first quarter, what indicates that the burden of economic growth shifts back to consumers whose budgets has squeezed out in purchasing power due to the deterioration of the inflation front. The government has taken up the matter by increasing fiscal support to the economy. In the second quarter, budget expenditures increased by 0.6% with a forecast of 0.3%. Increased intervention indicates that the government is worried about the economic situation in the country. The pound climbed to positive territory after the release of data on economic growth, but the outlook remains bearish, as there are no visible fundamental reasons for strengthening the economy while investors are building up short positions on the British currency. On August 18, the net position on the pound was -31K positions, declining for the fourth consecutive week. Pressure on the British currency, however, may be offset with peaceful tone of central banks bosses of the United States and Europe, who will discuss key issues of the development of monetary policy in Jackson Hole on Friday. Markets are preparing for the event by reducing positions on risky instruments. US stock exchanges finished Wednesday in the red, Asian stocks picked up pessimism, but it was not transferred to European markets, which hold quite solid. Europe's main stock markets DAX, Stoxx 50 and CAC 40 tempered gains, emerging markets are also pretty brave in the eyes of great uncertainty in the form of speeches by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. The US dollar retreated after yesterday's decline, the dynamics of gold show that now the asset is in a state of equilibrium (all major economic and political events are priced in) and the future depends on the signals from Jackson Hole. Oil quotes cut growth, meeting with relief the bullish EIA report yesterday. Traders looking for signals from the oil market should pay attention to the marginal productivity of the shale rigs, which is falling very fast, the pace of introduction of new ones, as well as the dynamics of debt financing of shale companies, since 2015-2016 turned out to be unprofitable for them and now they need to borrow to strike the balance sheet. Political crises, such as in Venezuela and instability in North Africa and the Middle East, can also give an idea of the changes in world output.
by Tickmill
OPEC cuts backfire as shale firms thwart rebalance goalsThe future of OPEC's output cut deal will be determined at a meeting in November, said the Oil minister of Kuwait. This news was a signal that members of the cartel may revise quotas for production earlier than expected. In May, the members of the organization decided to extend the agreement for another nine months, until March 2018, but pressure from the shale producers may force OPEC to re-join the price fight. So far, the cartel is responsible for monitoring compliance with the agreements, which by the way, were taken fairly tepid. So in Iraq, production decreased by only 28% from the proposed quota, while in other countries the fulfillment of obligations fell to 75%. The outcome of a technical meeting of OPEC in St. Petersburg was the introduction of quota for Nigeria at 1.8M barrels. The country has not yet reached this limit. Both good and bad implications foroil market sentiments had the news that decision of the world's largest mining company BHP Billiton to sell shale business in the US. It should be noted that a number of shareholders of the concern, such as Elliott Management Corp. And Tribeca Investment Partners repeatedly called on the leadership to take such a step, which could be dictated by the increased risks in the future for this industry. Probably the company decided to protect itself in advance from the difficulties of fighting for a market share with OPEC producers, foreseeing a limited potential for growth. This version is very plausible, given that the last fiscal year the concern ended up with a profit of $5.89 billion. Today, oil prices continue to retrace, although less pronounced than on Monday. Reports API and EIA on Wednesday likely will not be able to realize their capabilities of market catalysts, given the decline in US inventories due to seasonal increased fuel consumption. On Friday, an assessment of the prospects for global growth by the heads of the Central Bank at the symposium in Jackson Hole may be reflected in oil quotations, as the supply side dilemma forced participants to pay attention to the sentiments on demand side. Economic expectations in the euro area have deteriorated slightly, the ZEW poll showed. The index fell from 17.5 to 10 points in August, the average forecast was 15.0 points. The US currency recoups after a massive sell-off on Monday, but futures on the federal funds rate continue to show pessimism in anticipation of Yellen's peaceful remarks on Friday. However, given the overheating of the US stock market, strong consumer sentiment and demographic changes hindering inflation (which is beyond the control of the Fed), the regulator's head will probably indicate that monetary policy will be conducted according to the planned rate. Arthur Idiatulin, Tickmill Market Analyst
TVC:USOILShort
by Tickmill
1
WTI Short OpportunityWhen the market bounced from the uptrend line, we could expect an upward movement to the up border of a price channel. Now price is in a possible reversal zone formed by the downtrend line, 50.00 resistance level and the up border of the channel. It's short opportunity. When we get a confimed reversal signal, we'll have to open short trades. Stop orders for these trades must be placed above the local swing high and the downtrend line. Profit target should be at 47.00 level. A reversal signal will be confirmed when we see a bearish candle or a reversal candlestick pattern near the downtrend line and RSI reversal in the overbought zone.
FX:USOILShort
by DLavrov
4
WTI: a bit higher before fallingWTI is going to set higher and fulfill a lower top in the long term chart. The momentum is going to cross below the zero level. Investors are doubting and the potential upside for the Bollinger Band indicator is null. The main indicator continues its declining path and suggests that a trend reversal is unrealistic. After completing the ABC Wave of the Elliot Wave, the oil prices can explore lower levels. The start of a deeper correction to maximum 39 - 40 dollars can be confirmed by falling trough the uptrend in the momentum of Chaikin. After hitting the 39-40 dollar range, the price can recover to maximum 45 dollars and close at a level of 42 dollars. On the long term I'm still very negative due to the oversupplies which oil companies and OPEC leaders are facing with. On the long term an oil price of 30 dollars is not unrealistic... - So: long on the short term and short on the long term !
TVC:USOILShort
by beursfanaat