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WTI-OIL

WTI June Oil CLM7 Short/NeutralHello Supporters and Viewers, Here is new month Oil chart. Currently there is an "in-neck" bar forming which suggests further downside. Indicators are also suggesting more downside, as is the bulk of TV opinion. Looking at the main players, this view may be borne out. Call volumes are sitting 55-57 with a weekly change of +13k. Put volumes are at 50-52 with a weekly change of 33k. These will expire circa May 17. Futures volume is rising +300k OI with MM at net 277k long basis April 11 and Commercials net 244k short. Contrary to other TV opinion, I do not believe recent geopolitical events have had much impact on Oil. Syria does not produce much, and China, Korea and Japan are all importers. Oil needs supply interruption (OPEC) to start moving around, so nothing much to see here. If I was short, then I would look at sub 52 to 51.50 over the next 2 weeks and see if this pattern develops into a flag/triangle. ... just my 2c worth .
NYMEX:CLM2017
by Oh_If_Only
May WTI CL K LongFeb 17 18:00 AEDT March Futures expire next week hence I am using "K" May 17. As at Feb 7 Net Long CoT Managed Money stood at 360k open interest. (Source CME Group) I commented on the Weekly Chart last week, but thought I would add my view on the Daily, since I am now long oil. I believe this chart shows a bull flag on the late Nov 2016 rise. I have an up sloping channel, with support at 53.10, 53.43 and 53.74. The 53.10 support is formed from the breakout and now re-test on the Jun and Oct highs. The lower flag boundary met good volume on Feb 8 .. 10 as did Jan 11. The last four displayed bars is consolidation of that volume push, and at the time of writing this my 53.50 area is holding. I have observed that breakouts generally never reach their last extrema, but commence mid channel, therefore I will accept a move down to my marked 53.10 line and add positions at my support levels. The long upper pins (Dec 12 and Jan 3) indicate heavy selling pressure, but validates that boundary as a resistance level and profit target. A valid Flag upside breakout will add $8.30 targeting $60+ from the Flag low ... whatever that turns out to be. It then needs to take out the 54.76 and 54.97 pivot points. So this is contrary to the current bearish view, but that is my current view and ... just my 2c worth
NYMEX:CLK2017Long
by Oh_If_Only
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