Market Average vs. Energy Average Performance How the AVERAGE of SPY, QQQ, IWM &DIA and the AVERAGE of CL1! & NG1! have performed against one another.
WTI-OIL
wti shortafter the opening of trading is to wait for the pullback, and then open a short position
stop-loss 41.27
The first is very likely target 37.5
and so the price can for 1-2 weeks to fall to 32 or lower
wti shortOverextended move on no fundamentals, not calling a top in but at least a small correction, either from the top or on a break down to a lower part of the channel
Bottom for WTI on the next weeksAfter reach 38, wti will probably resume fall and get to around 20$, wich in my analysis can be a bottom zone from where the Oil will surge to a larger recuperation.
Clear SELL signalCrude oil failed to close above 200, 100 and 55 MA plus it also failed to cross previous high of 34.79
The only support is between 31.5-31.9 , Closing below 31.5 will fade the up run from 26.03 to 34.66
USoil. Short here (30.60) - Target 23Hello friends!
We are in a last wave down.
Lets catch it!
Entry 30.60
Stop 31.51
Target 23.00
Risk/reward 1:8
Best wishes!
Aibek
Usoil will go downOil has a big outset and now it on top, This week, I think, it will go to bottom his outset
MayBe a better SetUps as we all can`t imagine it35.80 USD: 2.Target (292 Chance)
33.97 USD: 1.Target (109 Chance)
32.88 USD: last Price
32.21 USD: last Support (67 Risk)
You can use the support levels as stop-loss price level.
And both targets also even as take profit price leves too, if you want.
But take care! Think about it - and create your own opinion! It`s your own decision...
Change/Risk Ratios are 1.63 C/R Ratio (1st) & 4.36 C/R Ratio (2nd)
Change/Risk Ratio = 1.Target/Support & 2.Target/Support
Best regards!
Aaron
Oil (WTI) LongTrading this on 4hr time frame but restrictions done allow me to publish that chart.
Long at 30.63, SL 29.33, TP 37.00
4hrly stochastic sub 20
4hrly seeding pattern (2 higher high and higher lows)
USOIL. Buy on break up. Sell and Reverse on top of E.Hello friends!
Looks like US oil is shaping ABCDE triangle in wave 4 of (III).
Here is the tactics for trading on the chart.
Best wishes, Aibek
WTI medium term corrective patternOil is in the middle of medium term Elliott wave 4 corrective range (flat) pattern. As the wave (a) unfolded in to 3 (abc) pattern it have high probability to be the ranged 3-3-5 pattern with a possible break out up side in the last wave (c) to reach at least Fibonacci retracement level 38.2%.
As the previous time periods and Fibonacci time extensions match in close range it is possible for medium term corrective wave 4 to end near March 7-8d.
As the corrective pattern of wave 4 is mostly hard to predict the best would be to wait for it to end and look for beginning of the Elliott wave 5 pattern signs.
There may still be a shot for the USOILUSOIL is in the consolidation zone. Therefore, before it goes deep down, there still can be a correction or two which can be grabbed.
For today´s trade the pattern worked 100%
Please feel free to discuss and specially to criticize as this is my first idea.
Thank you for watching!
OIL SetupCrude oil now coming back to its Trend Resistance ... So selling in current conditions might be risky ...
WTI Oil bounced off the YS1 pivotYesterday, CL oil futures bounced off its YearlyS1 pivot point. We recommended cover shorts there and to look for new long opportunities >$30 at PivotalPivots.com
Oil - Waiting for possible short re-entriesSo the August low around 38 has been quite clearly broken, which is the main reason my overall bias is still short. In addition, we have the following fundamentals supporting shorts:
- Saudi Arabia's fighting a war for global power by trying to ruin competing shale oil companies. They know they need to be forceful with this, a bit like ripping off a bandaid. It's cheaper in the long run to be really strong now rather than continually having to scare those companies.
- Storage is high.
- Production hasn't been cut, quite the opposite, the ceiling has been raised.
In light of this, I favour shorts and am looking for good re-entry points. I think the August low point around 38 might be good and it's also a POC that has held a couple of days now. I'm basically using recent POCs as possible re-entry points, so 36.80, 37.50, 38.00 and if it overshoots a bit 38.50. Anything above that would force me to reassess.
The possible Fed rate hike might of course through a wrench in my plans, but for now I simply don't see a ton of reasons to go long. People kind of expect a rate hike and I don't expect this to change anything in the long run for oil. I might be tempted to take a few short term longs around 35ish SHOULD I get a strong signal though. In that case, If that move has strength, I'd still look for shorts around 40 even if it's strong.
OIL-WTI - Bullish Butterfly Pattern (34 Zone .. If not 29 Zone)OIL - WTI
Waiting for Bullish Signs around 34 Zone. If not, wait for Bullish Signs around 29 Zone
MACRO VIEW: WTI OIL UPDATE: BREAKDOWN FROM THE RANEFollowing the OPEC decision to avoid cutting their oil production, WTI Oil has again broken down from its relevant range border, this time it looks like for good.
Price is now significantly below both 1-year and 1-quater distribution, trading above below 1st standard deviations from 1-year and 1-quarter mean - signaling more downside probability.
The move will be fully confirmed by WTI Oil breaking below its 2015 low at 37.70 (lowest point since 2008/9 crisis)
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: BREAKOUT FROM THE RANGEAfter the WTI Oil has confirmed its breakdown from its relevant range, USDRUB reacted accordingly - by breaking out from its range it has been in since September.
Price is now above both 1-year and 1-quater distribution, trading above upper 1st standard deviations from 1-year and 1-quarter mean - signaling more upside probability.
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: THE RANGE NARROWSUSDRUB continues to trade within borders we defined in our last update, however the range has narrowed. (see related idea)
As volatility compresses, and the price is trading between upper 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean and lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean, there current range now is 62-66.5
USDRUB is very correlated to WTI Oil, which is also now range-bound, so it is very likely that the Ruble will break away from its range when WTI Oil makes the first move
