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WTI-OIL

WTI medium term corrective patternOil is in the middle of medium term Elliott wave 4 corrective range (flat) pattern. As the wave (a) unfolded in to 3 (abc) pattern it have high probability to be the ranged 3-3-5 pattern with a possible break out up side in the last wave (c) to reach at least Fibonacci retracement level 38.2%. As the previous time periods and Fibonacci time extensions match in close range it is possible for medium term corrective wave 4 to end near March 7-8d. As the corrective pattern of wave 4 is mostly hard to predict the best would be to wait for it to end and look for beginning of the Elliott wave 5 pattern signs.
FX:USOIL
by venckusarunas
Oil - Waiting for possible short re-entriesSo the August low around 38 has been quite clearly broken, which is the main reason my overall bias is still short. In addition, we have the following fundamentals supporting shorts: - Saudi Arabia's fighting a war for global power by trying to ruin competing shale oil companies. They know they need to be forceful with this, a bit like ripping off a bandaid. It's cheaper in the long run to be really strong now rather than continually having to scare those companies. - Storage is high. - Production hasn't been cut, quite the opposite, the ceiling has been raised. In light of this, I favour shorts and am looking for good re-entry points. I think the August low point around 38 might be good and it's also a POC that has held a couple of days now. I'm basically using recent POCs as possible re-entry points, so 36.80, 37.50, 38.00 and if it overshoots a bit 38.50. Anything above that would force me to reassess. The possible Fed rate hike might of course through a wrench in my plans, but for now I simply don't see a ton of reasons to go long. People kind of expect a rate hike and I don't expect this to change anything in the long run for oil. I might be tempted to take a few short term longs around 35ish SHOULD I get a strong signal though. In that case, If that move has strength, I'd still look for shorts around 40 even if it's strong.
FX:USOILShort
by TradeApe
2
MACRO VIEW: WTI OIL UPDATE: BREAKDOWN FROM THE RANEFollowing the OPEC decision to avoid cutting their oil production, WTI Oil has again broken down from its relevant range border, this time it looks like for good. Price is now significantly below both 1-year and 1-quater distribution, trading above below 1st standard deviations from 1-year and 1-quarter mean - signaling more downside probability. The move will be fully confirmed by WTI Oil breaking below its 2015 low at 37.70 (lowest point since 2008/9 crisis)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Killy_Mel
3
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: THE RANGE NARROWSUSDRUB continues to trade within borders we defined in our last update, however the range has narrowed. (see related idea) As volatility compresses, and the price is trading between upper 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean and lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean, there current range now is 62-66.5 USDRUB is very correlated to WTI Oil, which is also now range-bound, so it is very likely that the Ruble will break away from its range when WTI Oil makes the first move
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VEIW: WTI OIL UPDATE: THE RANGE HOLDSWTI Oil continues to trade within the its relevant range, marked by the 1st standard deviations from 66 day (quarterly mean). So far it held 2 breakout attempts and has stopped compressing since our last update (see related idea). The eventual break from the range is very likely to be powerful, as the longer the price sits within it, the more energy it has for a potential move away from the mean. Problem is, we will know the direction of the break only when it actually is confirmed...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Killy_Mel
2
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: INTO THE LATERAL RANGEUSDRUB has finally managed to end its upward trend, started the begining of June 2015 The price level has shifted - before uptrend USDRUB was trading about 55, now it is trading north of 60. The end of the uptrend was marked by the price falling below quarterly mean and within 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean. Thus currently the pair is range-bound, with the range borders are as marked on the chart. For further developments one should closely monitor WTI Oil (related idea), as the Ruble is closely correlated to it.
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: WTI OIL SEVERE COMPRESSION: EXPLOSIVE MOVE AHEADIt is a very interesting and highly explosive situation now on WTI OIL market Price has been trending laterally since the start of September, causing volatility on quarterly basis to contract unusually tight (measured by 1.25 standard deviations from quarterly (66 day) mean) It means that when price eventually breaks from the 1st standard deviation, a move in that direction will have a lot of energy to release - in other words, it will be a significant and very possibly a sharp move. At this point from a technical point of view it is impossible to tell which direction it will break, but what will help us is to monitor the compressing range, marked by the same 1st standard deviations from quarterly mean. A breakdown below 42 will hint us about downward direction and a breakout above 52 - about upward direction of the high-potential move.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB HOLDS UPTREND TEST DESPITE OILUSDRUB held uptrend test on 1-year and quarterly basis (bounced back from 1st standard deviations from 1-year (264 days) and quarterly (66 days) means). What is strange, Russian Ruble continues to fall despite downtrend in WTI oil has failed recently. (see related) If price continues to trend upwards (above 66) - likely target is 80, a level outlined by Russian Central Bank today as the price at which it will raise interest rates again. Failure of USDRUB uptrend will be confirmed only when price tags quarterly mean (at 60 now)
Long
by Killy_Mel
USDCAD Pauses as Crude Gains Over 20 Percent from LowsThe USDCAD pauses as crude gains over 20 percent from the recent lows, while having the best three-day gain in nearly 30 years. Upward momentum in crude prices will help the Canadian dollar rebound slightly, but the fundamentals still remain bearish. In all reality, $47 per barrel will not rid the bearish fundamentals within the energy space. While keeping it all in perspective, the pop in crude prices is due to a series of headline factors as crude traded near levels not seen since the financial crisis. First, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude production declined in July. Falling a to a mere 9.3 million barrels, production is roughly 300,000 barrels from the peak. For the first half of 2015, an average of 9.4 million barrels were produced. That's not that optimistic. There was also a headline suggesting that OPEC may have a meeting with producers to determine a "fair" price for crude. What do I expect? twitter.com Speculators try to front-run such events hoping to ride the momentum. These momentum pops tend to be self-sustaining as traders begin to cover their levered-shorts. The market saw the same thing earlier in the year only to engage in another "transitory" breakdown. The USDCAD is up big, and price action will likely test the consolidation channel, which will act as the first line of support. If price action closes underneath it, look for the pair to test support at 1.3090/1.31. The speculative ride could last near-term, where the 200-4H EMA would be a great downside target. The 4H +/- DMI is showing a possible bearish convergence that would further suggest more downside. Key resistance levels will act as upside target is crude begins to unwind, considering that USDCAD does not completely unravel. Minor trend support looks to be broken, and bulls will have to attempt to get back over that hump.
by CommoditiesTrader
7
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB IS TESTING ITS UPTREND!Following WTI OIL downtrend failure last Friday, USDRUB tagging its relevant uptrend border first time since it started its descend back in July, marked by lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) mean (@65). If the price manages to break below the border, chances are the uptrend is over (or at least current leg of it). Full stop of the uptrend, however, can only be declared when the price trades above the quarterly mean (@59).
Short
by Killy_Mel