Strifor || UKOIL-10/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: After the rally in oil, prices are most likely ready for a correction. The downward correction is expected to continue. Positions are considered from current prices with a view to approaching level 88. Presumably, after which there will be a pause and a likely continuation of the fall.
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WTI-OIL
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOUSD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially reverse from here to bounce higher towards our take profit target.
Entry: 88.108
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 86.519
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 91.890
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level
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TradePlus-Fx|BRENT: now on sell💬 Description: Oil remains one of the most interesting instruments at the moment, which is due to the aggravated geopolitical background. Metals are the same story.
In our previous trading idea for oil, we assumed entering a long position with the goal of reaching level 91 . This happened, but the main idea and the more promising one - sell. At the moment, a good context has been formed to enter the short, as we need. One can consider a dynamic set of positions, since a false breakout upward cannot be ruled out, after which the price will fall even more rapidly. The target of the trade is located at the gap formation level, that is, at level 85 .
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Strifor || UKOIL-10/09/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Monday's oil gap surprised everyone, but given this geopolitical background, this is not surprising in principle. The strengthening of oil is most likely short-term and a fall can be expected soon. Most likely it will be in the middle of this week. The goal of the fall will, of course, be closing the gap, and even moving lower.
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Stagflation might push energy prices higherMajor economies are facing a risk of stagflation and with that comes the risk of energy prices going up. At the moment, the oil price has not done any significant move reflecting the upcoming risk that major economies are facing but if I wanted to play the scenario where we see energy prices going higher during this Q4, this is where I would place myself on Oil.
WTI OIL Huge Cup and Handle?WTI Oil (USOIL) hit and broke last week the 93.75 Resistance (which was the October 10 & November 07 2022 Highs) but failed to stay above it and got aggressively rejected back below it. This emphatic rejection indicates that as long as the price doesn't close a 1W candle above the Resistance, the short-term trend has more probabilities of being bearish.
** Cup and Handle **
We often like to view our financial assets on a more long-term scale using larger time-frames. We can claim that the recent Channel Up since June has completed a Cup formation. What technically follows within this pattern is the formation of the Handle. If Oil is indeed trading on the Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern, then once the bottom of the Channel Up breaks (assuming we keep closing below the 93.75 level), it can start the formation of the Handle part.
** The importance of the MA levels **
This 1W chart shows also the important that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) have been having in the past year or so. They act as Supports until broken and move to the next one and similarly as Resistances. As you can see the current bull run since June started after the 1W MA200 held repeatedly (closed above it 7 candles despite hitting and breaking it), then broke above the 1W MA50 that was holding since August 2022 and 1W MA100 that was holding since November 2022.
** So what's the target? Fibs in play? **
So as long as the conditions mentioned above are met and Oil starts forming the Handle, you can use the 1W MA100 (closing below it) as the break-out sell signal and target the 1W MA50 at $80.00. This is marginally above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which has its own fair share of importance. Notice that the 1W RSI is just below the 70.00 overbought barrier.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Sharp correction to the MA50 (1d).WTI Crude Oil got rejected a little after crossing over Resistance (1) that was the double top of Nov 7th and Oct 10th 2022.
The trend remains bullish but that calls for a standard correction to the Rising Support and the MA50 (1d).
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 86.00 (MA50 (1d) and Rising Support).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on a Falling Resistance while the price trading under a Rising Resistance, flashing a big bearish divergence. This can be the signal that breaks the Falling Support to the downside.
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Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to 38.2% Fibonacci 183.36. Dear colleagues, I assume that the price has completed wave 1. Correctional movement is inevitable. The nearest target is the area of 38.2% Fibonacci 183.36.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
✅CRUDE OIL WILL GO UP|LONG🚀
✅CRUDE OIL is trading in an uptrend
Along the rising support line
Which makes me bullish biased
And the price is about to retest the rising support
Thus, a rebound and a move up is expected
With the target of retesting the level above at 84.00$
LONG🚀
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#Gasoil UpdateThe Gasoil chart also has several alternatives to how it can shape the end of the uptrend. I indicated them on the chart below. Black labels mark the alternative scenario. Probability is not much different from each other. In summary, we have to prepare for a volatile environment which would be difficult to orientate until it is over and wave of X is formed.
✅WTI OIL SWING SHORT🔥
✅WTI OIL will be retesting a resistance level of 83.29$
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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WTI UpdateThe price appears to bounce back as expected, with OPEC+ output curbs finally biting. Russia announced a voluntary decrease of 500 kbd that will remain through the end of August.
The technical context entails an acceleration in wave [ 3] of iii.
Most ElliottWave traders aim for a third of the third when the price moves a considerable distance with no noticeable pullback.
I don't have any alternative options now, but given how difficult it was to pick the bottom, I won't celebrate until the end of the move.
The larger picture stays unchanged. Either a triangle as wave Y of (X) that will last until the end of 2023 or a more sharp rally as wave C of (X) (black labels).
I'll reiterate that waves wxy of (b) and [ w] [ x] [ y] of wave ii are a little complex, which is typically a bad sign. However, I'm struggling to come up with an immediate bearish scenario.
Long WTIUSD (OIL)This is a quick short-term bet on the bottoming of the oil price-action based on a price action behaviour. It is possible that the price has bottomed as it has been consolidating and creating a triangle shape in the lower time-frames (see 1H chart).
The RR ratio is looking very positive (above 3) for a trade, assuming price will rebound from this level and not break triangle resistance.
It is a trade that requires active monitoring and management, with adjustment of SL to break-even if price runs bullish and breaks the tirangle resistance to avoid any news related major counter moves, which in this market is always a major possibility.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Short term buy as the 4H MA50 held.WTI Crude Oil rebounded yesterday upon hitting the 4H MA50 and as the 4H technicals turned bullish (RSI = 55.674, MACD = 0.250, ADX = 26.371), this is a buy opportunity on the short term. We are targeting the 1D MA100 (TP = 73.50), where we will place the first medium term short (TP = 68.00). The maximum technical extension for this year has been the 1D MA200, so if the 1D MA100 breaks, we will place our second short at 77.00 for an even higher return trade (again TP = 68.00).
Prior idea:
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Pivot level separates sell from buy trade.WTI Crude Oil got rejected today exactly on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the pivot level we have identified that determines the short term trade. The medium term pattern is a Megaphone and with both the 1D and 4H timeframes neutral (RSI = 52.099, MACD = -0.100, ADX = 28.689), we can easily realize that the price is exactly in the middle of the pattern, hence the Pivot.
We will buy if a 4H candle closes over the Pivot (71.05) and target the 1D MA100 (TP = 74.00). Similarly we will be selling as long as the candle closes under the Pivot and target S2 (TP = 64.00).
The RSI is trading inside a Triangle, whose top and bottom can help you take profit earlier if needed.
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