USDRUB continues to trade within borders we defined in our last update, however the range has narrowed. (see related idea)
As volatility compresses, and the price is trading between upper 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean and lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean, there current range now is 62-66.5
USDRUB is very correlated to WTI Oil, which is...
WTI Oil continues to trade within the its relevant range, marked by the 1st standard deviations from 66 day (quarterly mean).
So far it held 2 breakout attempts and has stopped compressing since our last update (see related idea).
The eventual break from the range is very likely to be powerful, as the longer the price sits within it, the more energy it has for...
After breaking the USD44,20 the likelihood of falls to USD41.80 and USD39.70 it is the most likely scenario. But if the price breaks the USD44.20 upward, it could advance to USD47.50 and USD50 .
WTI Oil continues to trade within the tightening range that we covered earlier, with recent attempt to break above it failed - price is back at the mean.
Since our previous overview the range tightened down to 48.5-42, making the potential break from it even more powerful, as the longer the price sits within it, the more energy it has for a potential move away...
USDRUB has finally managed to end its upward trend, started the begining of June 2015
The price level has shifted - before uptrend USDRUB was trading about 55, now it is trading north of 60.
The end of the uptrend was marked by the price falling below quarterly mean and within 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean.
Thus currently the pair is range-bound, with...
It is a very interesting and highly explosive situation now on WTI OIL market
Price has been trending laterally since the start of September, causing volatility on quarterly basis to contract unusually tight (measured by 1.25 standard deviations from quarterly (66 day) mean)
It means that when price eventually breaks from the 1st standard deviation, a move in...
USDRUB attempts 2nd time to break its quarterly downtrend, started back in June by breaking below the 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66-days)
However only the tag of the mean itself (now at 61.05) will declare the end of the uptrend
USDRUB held uptrend test on 1-year and quarterly basis (bounced back from 1st standard deviations from 1-year (264 days) and quarterly (66 days) means).
What is strange, Russian Ruble continues to fall despite downtrend in WTI oil has failed recently. (see related)
If price continues to trend upwards (above 66) - likely target is 80, a level outlined by Russian...
The USDCAD pauses as crude gains over 20 percent from the recent lows, while having the best three-day gain in nearly 30 years.
Upward momentum in crude prices will help the Canadian dollar rebound slightly, but the fundamentals still remain bearish. In all reality, $47 per barrel will not rid the bearish fundamentals within the energy space.
While keeping it...
Following WTI OIL downtrend failure last Friday, USDRUB tagging its relevant uptrend border first time since it started its descend back in July, marked by lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) mean (@65).
If the price manages to break below the border, chances are the uptrend is over (or at least current leg of it).
Full stop of the uptrend,...
EURUSD has broken above 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days) amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from quarterly mean)
Upside probability is apparent, and the closes target is 1 year mean (264 days) at 1.1685. Move is confirmed when price breaks above relevant highs (1.1485)
Stop level is quarterly mean (at...
if trade WTI, this could be a really good trade.
as you can see we have a falling wedge. macd is showing divergence right in the period of the wedge and also since 20 days ago.
price could keep making the wedge. so if price break up side, i will be buying oil.
if this trade goes good, put break even when price just go through 48.5. and took half of your...
Since mid-summer 2014 the 10-Year Treasury Yield started correlating with WTI Crude Oil, which can be seen on the image below:
The correlation was established as a result of dynamics of oil prices, when falling oil was perceived as a risk to inflation. Expectations of lower inflation have driven the 10-Year Yield down with the WTI Oil. Market has perceived...
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USDCAD & OIL are both boxed between support and resistance levels. By looking at the wedge being formed by ROC, a breakout is imminent by the end of May.
WTI has played out fundamentally, and the fundamentals (along with sentiment) still remain to the downside. Traders love to pick out bottoms by catching falling knifes, and they're usually cut up in the process.
On a risk:reward basis, sure WTI may seem like it's at a nice area to buy. Yet, I think it is still to early. Crude will likely find support at the...
I've seen a lot of people looking at oil's long-term trendline for a speculative buy opportunity this past couple of weeks. While oil prices should remain relatively low as markets work to establish a demand-supply equilibrium in 2015, I agree with the hypothesis of at least a technical bounce once WTI and Brent prices test their trendlines (around $47 for WTI and...
