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WTI-OIL

Resistance is located at 92.00 and should cap gains on WTICOUSWTI - Intraday - We look to Sell at 91.78 (stop at 95.24) The medium term bias remains bearish. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 92.00 and should cap gains to this area. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 84.10 and 82.00 Resistance: 92.00 / 100.00 / 112.00 Support: 84.00 / 68.00 / 50.00 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by OANDA
1
WTI OIL heavily bearish eyeing a level untouched since Dec 2021!WTI CRUDE OIL (USOIL) eventually followed the rough projection we made three weeks ago and made a Lower Low as it failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again: This has created a new Channel Down on the medium-term, which after closing below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it is now eyeing the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) for the first time since December 02 2021! As we outlined in our previous analysis though, the downtrend is unlikely to stop there and most likely will hit the November 2020 Higher Lows trend-line around 82.00 - 83.00 before giving a relief (at least) rally. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
1
WTI crude oil (US Oil): Bearish channel testing key supportIt seems like only yesterday when oil prices were surging on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and analysts were predicting that the commodity could rise to $200 in short order. Since those fearful days in March however, supply has incrementally come into the market and demand has slackened, due in no small part to the high prices themselves. Looking at the chart of WTI (US Oil), prices have definitively broken below the bullish trend line the characterized the entire uptrend through the first half of the year and indeed formed a new bearish channel since the start of June. The commodity is now testing a critical support level at 94.00; a close below this area would mark the lowest since February and pave the way for a deeper retracement toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $88 next. Meanwhile, bulls would need to see prices bounce from support at $94 and break out of the current bearish channel to grow more optimistic on oil remaining sustainably in the triple digits as we head into August. One way or another, crude oil should get a clear technical break in the coming days!
TVC:USOIL
by FOREXcom
1
WTI OIL hit its 1D MA200 first time in 2022! Bottom can be lowerWTI Crude Oil (USOIL) touched today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 2022, more specifically since December 21 2021! This strong selling on the market has come after successive Lower Highs since June 14 and a rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the March 08 market High, this may look as the start of a multi-year Bear Cycle but the fall isn't that dramatic yet, as excluding the June 14 High, the market has been ranging sideways (high volatility nonetheless) within a Rectangle pattern since the March drop. This is a make or break moment for the pattern. A break below the Support and naturally the 1D MA200, should seek the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) which priced the markets last Low on December 02 2021, before the mega rally started. A rebound on the Support should test the 1D MA50 on the short-term at least as a Resistance. The most important indicator on this chart though is the RSI, which is displayed on the 1W time-frame. As you see, there is a Channel Down pattern involved, which (with the exception of the March war extreme) has price all of WTI's Highs and Lows since the March 08 2021 High! The best long-term buy on the market can be taken exactly on the Channel's Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line, whether that's on the 1D MA300 or one of the lower Higher Lows trend-lines involved. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
3
WTI -5/7/2022-• April-June period prices were contained inside an ascending channel • After peaking in June, prices broke the channel support and started trading inside a bearish descending trend line • Long term support trend line holding since Dec 2021 still intact • As the worldwide economic picture is worsening, outlook is slowly turning negative for the oil's demand • Bears are targeting trend line support, today at 104 • Below 104, next target is 100 psychological figure
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
WTI -2/6/2022-• After rallying for more than a week, bulls failed to break above 116 resistance level • Oil prices have been trading lower for the past 2 sessions but still within an ascending bullish channel • Next target to the downside comes at a level between 110-111 (trend line support) • A break of the bullish channel signals fading bullish power and targets 103, 100 and 92.6 respectively • Longs recommended while still inside the channel with stops below 110 • Shorts to be executed on a successful breakdown from the channel with stops just above the lower trend line and targets listed above Good luck
BLACKBULL:WTI
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
#WTI expected to pop again#WTI crude oil looks like it wants to bust above the channel again. It did just that recently but got shot back down. MACD histogram on its way to green, lines curling up for a bullish MACD cross. and RSI has already tested 50 and appears to be holding, signifying strength. I'm long oil, but it will be volatile with all these wacky headlines every day that drag it every which way. Fundamental side: EU is considering banning Russian oil and now has a deal with Qatar. Russia's energy dominance is ending. Still an imbalance between excess demand and not enough supply. Bullish for crude oil. The lack of new drills and exploration will fuel the imbalance. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own DD. But for the record Tiger is basically a pro when it comes to oil and the vix.
FX:USOILLong
by EBITDAtiger
WTI OIL targeting 123.00WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a 4 day green 1D candle streak, the longest it has been in a month and is trading above above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see the pattern has been a Channel Up since the March 25 High as the market is attempting to recover the War high (129.50) of March 08. This time the price hasn't just rebounded on the bottom of the Channel Up but also on the longer-term Higher Lows trend-line that started after the December 02 2021 Low. A break below should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but until then we should continue buying towards the top of the Channel. A weekly closing above the 129.50 Resistance should be a long-term extension to the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at 145.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3
Oil and gas producers have come to a dead endLast Friday WTI crude NYMEX:CL1! dropped together with the broader equity markets and closed almost 7% lower at $107.99, slightly below the 50 days moving average. Earlier in the month the oil was still trying to break and stay above $120 however the hype cooled down quickly, partly due to the sharp 75 basis points rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday. This recent round of oil rally actually started in late Dec-2021 when the oil price tested the 250 days moving average, failed then reversed back to the upside. In late Jan-2022, the global inflation concern pushed the commodity across the major resistance at $86. And by late Feb-2022, fueled by the “special military operation” initiated by Russia against Ukraine, WTI crude went through the $100 handle and never looked back again. With the recent more affirmative backdrop of global recession, as well as the increasing political cost for the current government allowing inflation to worsen, last week's drop might officially mark the end of the 6 months long oil rally. There are 2 ways you can capitalize the idea. One is to short the commodity directly. Two is to short those who produce the commodity . In the following scenario analysis, we believe the second seems to be a more profitable way, even if oil price continue to rally. 1. Oil Price Up Although it’s unlikely, there are still factors on both the demand and supply side that might drive up oil price, such as extreme weather and military conflict. Another wild card is OPEC. But in any case, one thing for sure for the US government is that the oil companies are making a lot of money. The US president Joe Biden even directly pointed out “Exxon made more money than God last year” in a recent event in Los Angeles. With Britain recently announcing a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers, the white house is even more motivated to join “Robin Hood” to rob the rich (whether to give to the poor is another matter, lol). The windfall tax essentially is setting a profitability ceiling for oil companies. Even if the oil price goes higher, they will not be able to pocket more money. 2. Oil Price Down (Supply Side) This is likely to be a continuation of the windfall tax narrative. One option the producers can choose instead of paying more tax is to increase capex, i.e. increase oil production by drilling more crude, and expand refinery facilities. In fact, raising capex is the last thing the producers want to do given the global carbon zero commitment and the shift in consumer behavior such as shifting from traditional fossil fuel vehicles to EV. Hence if the oil companies at the end really compromised, their profit and distributable cash would definitely be harmed. 3. Oil Price Down (Demand Side) In the market economy we trust, even without government intervention, the market itself has an in-built feedback mechanism to neutralize any imbalance. When oil price is too high, demand will naturally be depressed (e.g. drive less, work from home more, take more public transport). Less demand in turn will pull down the price until demand-supply equilibrium is restored. If we look at the latest release of companies Q1 result, the economic slowdown is no longer a slogan but has already materialized. The demand downward spiral has actually taken place in the US, and it is only one trigger away to set this into motion for the oil market as well. For the oil producers, it means selling less oil at lower price, double whammy for their profitability. Now it should be clearer why no matter how the oil price moves from this point onward, oil companies have all reached a dead end. Trading Plan Instead of hand picking which producers to short, one can directly short oil & gas theme ETF, effectively shorting the whole bucket of companies in the sector to avoid tail risk from individual companies. I would recommend AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XOP for this operation, for their larger market cap and better liquidity. The best time to short was actually 2 weeks ago when oil price was still above $120 and there was a divergence between oil price and the major equity indexes. I placed my first short position in AMEX:XOP on Jun-10 at $161. Last week the drop was faster than I expected. In fact all the nearby resistances were taken down one by one without much consolidations: 20 days moving average: Jun-15 50 days moving average: Jun-16 Lower bound of bollinger bands from 20-days moving average: Jun-17 For those who are looking to raise their short exposure, I would recommend to wait until it rebounds back to one of the above resistance levels, place the short when the buying momentum dries and the selling force becomes dominant again . That translates to price levels around 140-155. For those who are looking to buy (Note: profit taking only, not buying in anticipation of new highs), the following levels are the major supports of this round of rally: May support: $123.5 Feb pre-war peak turned support: $115.2 250 days moving average: ~$110 Last note I want to share this week is, never rush into a trade. Any last minute rush means your preparation is inadequate. If you missed a trade it's not because you were not decisive enough to rush in, but because you did not do your homework. So stop overthinking about what you have missed, focus on the next, and make sure you win when you are right. I wish you all a happy and prosperous trading week ahead!
AMEX:XOPShort
by geoffreyip523
OIL WONT BE COMING DOWN ANYTIME SOONThe war in Ukraine caused a chain reaction in lifting energy and commodity prices, following the decision of the West to reduce and eventually ban Russian imports of crude oil, natural gas, coal and a number of other raw materials. As a result of this, there continues to be a shortage in oil supply in the global markets. The fact that there is underinvestment in this sector and falling inventories continue to allude to a tighter market in general. Throw in the fact that Russia supplies are being phased out with little to no immediate substitutes, the tighter market outlook is going to stay for longer. The capacity shortage and the fact that OPEC+ is also not doing much more than they are now isn't going to help alleviate sentiment on that front either. Significantly higher prices of energy and raw materials caused a rise in prices of final products that contributed to the second cause of rising inflation – cost-push inflation, while the strong rise in prices, accompanied by persisting supply disruptions, resulted in the shortage of products that pushed their prices higher and pointed to the third cause of strong prices growth – demand-pull inflation. This sparked a rise in food prices, electricity and many other essential items that contributed to the enormous increase in the cost of living, further pressuring households and businesses. The West is working with Venezuela and Iran to bring back their oil to the global markets to boost supply but after Iran turned off 27 cameras of the International Atomic Bomb Agency, which monitors compliance of uranium-rich countries to a peaceful application of nuclear energy to promote peace, health and prosperity, it looks unlikely that a deal with Iran will be reached soon. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Citibank and other major banks forecast that oil will likely break its all-time high price of $127 per barrel on 8th March, 2022 and rise towards $135 per barrel. So brace yourselves folks as we ride this oil roller coaster.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Joshua_Naabu