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WTI-OIL

WTI OIL targeting 123.00WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a 4 day green 1D candle streak, the longest it has been in a month and is trading above above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see the pattern has been a Channel Up since the March 25 High as the market is attempting to recover the War high (129.50) of March 08. This time the price hasn't just rebounded on the bottom of the Channel Up but also on the longer-term Higher Lows trend-line that started after the December 02 2021 Low. A break below should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but until then we should continue buying towards the top of the Channel. A weekly closing above the 129.50 Resistance should be a long-term extension to the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at 145.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3
Oil and gas producers have come to a dead endLast Friday WTI crude NYMEX:CL1! dropped together with the broader equity markets and closed almost 7% lower at $107.99, slightly below the 50 days moving average. Earlier in the month the oil was still trying to break and stay above $120 however the hype cooled down quickly, partly due to the sharp 75 basis points rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday. This recent round of oil rally actually started in late Dec-2021 when the oil price tested the 250 days moving average, failed then reversed back to the upside. In late Jan-2022, the global inflation concern pushed the commodity across the major resistance at $86. And by late Feb-2022, fueled by the “special military operation” initiated by Russia against Ukraine, WTI crude went through the $100 handle and never looked back again. With the recent more affirmative backdrop of global recession, as well as the increasing political cost for the current government allowing inflation to worsen, last week's drop might officially mark the end of the 6 months long oil rally. There are 2 ways you can capitalize the idea. One is to short the commodity directly. Two is to short those who produce the commodity . In the following scenario analysis, we believe the second seems to be a more profitable way, even if oil price continue to rally. 1. Oil Price Up Although it’s unlikely, there are still factors on both the demand and supply side that might drive up oil price, such as extreme weather and military conflict. Another wild card is OPEC. But in any case, one thing for sure for the US government is that the oil companies are making a lot of money. The US president Joe Biden even directly pointed out “Exxon made more money than God last year” in a recent event in Los Angeles. With Britain recently announcing a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers, the white house is even more motivated to join “Robin Hood” to rob the rich (whether to give to the poor is another matter, lol). The windfall tax essentially is setting a profitability ceiling for oil companies. Even if the oil price goes higher, they will not be able to pocket more money. 2. Oil Price Down (Supply Side) This is likely to be a continuation of the windfall tax narrative. One option the producers can choose instead of paying more tax is to increase capex, i.e. increase oil production by drilling more crude, and expand refinery facilities. In fact, raising capex is the last thing the producers want to do given the global carbon zero commitment and the shift in consumer behavior such as shifting from traditional fossil fuel vehicles to EV. Hence if the oil companies at the end really compromised, their profit and distributable cash would definitely be harmed. 3. Oil Price Down (Demand Side) In the market economy we trust, even without government intervention, the market itself has an in-built feedback mechanism to neutralize any imbalance. When oil price is too high, demand will naturally be depressed (e.g. drive less, work from home more, take more public transport). Less demand in turn will pull down the price until demand-supply equilibrium is restored. If we look at the latest release of companies Q1 result, the economic slowdown is no longer a slogan but has already materialized. The demand downward spiral has actually taken place in the US, and it is only one trigger away to set this into motion for the oil market as well. For the oil producers, it means selling less oil at lower price, double whammy for their profitability. Now it should be clearer why no matter how the oil price moves from this point onward, oil companies have all reached a dead end. Trading Plan Instead of hand picking which producers to short, one can directly short oil & gas theme ETF, effectively shorting the whole bucket of companies in the sector to avoid tail risk from individual companies. I would recommend AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XOP for this operation, for their larger market cap and better liquidity. The best time to short was actually 2 weeks ago when oil price was still above $120 and there was a divergence between oil price and the major equity indexes. I placed my first short position in AMEX:XOP on Jun-10 at $161. Last week the drop was faster than I expected. In fact all the nearby resistances were taken down one by one without much consolidations: 20 days moving average: Jun-15 50 days moving average: Jun-16 Lower bound of bollinger bands from 20-days moving average: Jun-17 For those who are looking to raise their short exposure, I would recommend to wait until it rebounds back to one of the above resistance levels, place the short when the buying momentum dries and the selling force becomes dominant again . That translates to price levels around 140-155. For those who are looking to buy (Note: profit taking only, not buying in anticipation of new highs), the following levels are the major supports of this round of rally: May support: $123.5 Feb pre-war peak turned support: $115.2 250 days moving average: ~$110 Last note I want to share this week is, never rush into a trade. Any last minute rush means your preparation is inadequate. If you missed a trade it's not because you were not decisive enough to rush in, but because you did not do your homework. So stop overthinking about what you have missed, focus on the next, and make sure you win when you are right. I wish you all a happy and prosperous trading week ahead!
AMEX:XOPShort
by geoffreyip523
OIL WONT BE COMING DOWN ANYTIME SOONThe war in Ukraine caused a chain reaction in lifting energy and commodity prices, following the decision of the West to reduce and eventually ban Russian imports of crude oil, natural gas, coal and a number of other raw materials. As a result of this, there continues to be a shortage in oil supply in the global markets. The fact that there is underinvestment in this sector and falling inventories continue to allude to a tighter market in general. Throw in the fact that Russia supplies are being phased out with little to no immediate substitutes, the tighter market outlook is going to stay for longer. The capacity shortage and the fact that OPEC+ is also not doing much more than they are now isn't going to help alleviate sentiment on that front either. Significantly higher prices of energy and raw materials caused a rise in prices of final products that contributed to the second cause of rising inflation – cost-push inflation, while the strong rise in prices, accompanied by persisting supply disruptions, resulted in the shortage of products that pushed their prices higher and pointed to the third cause of strong prices growth – demand-pull inflation. This sparked a rise in food prices, electricity and many other essential items that contributed to the enormous increase in the cost of living, further pressuring households and businesses. The West is working with Venezuela and Iran to bring back their oil to the global markets to boost supply but after Iran turned off 27 cameras of the International Atomic Bomb Agency, which monitors compliance of uranium-rich countries to a peaceful application of nuclear energy to promote peace, health and prosperity, it looks unlikely that a deal with Iran will be reached soon. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Citibank and other major banks forecast that oil will likely break its all-time high price of $127 per barrel on 8th March, 2022 and rise towards $135 per barrel. So brace yourselves folks as we ride this oil roller coaster.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Joshua_Naabu
Crude Oil UP ah!For the past month or so, been talking about higher Crude prices in the making. Here we are closer to that... The Weekly chart closed at a monthly high, and with such gusto that it is the most bullish looking candle in the past 6 weeks! This came after many indications and warnings from weekly candlestick patterns and daily technicals as outlined previously in the last couple of weeks. So, now the weekly technical indicators are showing a bullish turn. The daily chart have a late week Crude Oil price spike, that is meeting a gap resistance, and the coming week should break through... this is supported by the RPM and MACD technicals. 125 then 155... and this is an off-cycle surge, so am expecting a quick surge really.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Oil Volatility - Trading the ChannelOil is moving higher in a $10-20 channel for the past 3 months. The respect of the downside trendline support in the past few weeks has led to a reliable rally if we hold lows. The similar situation on the topside with multiple rallies above 110 failing in recent weeks. The current strategy is to follow Oil from downside to topside support and resistance and vice versa. Once a big support or resistance holds the turnaround has been clean and once Oil starts to move its becomes fairly aggressive in that new direction. This means use a stop and more importantly TP on every trade as the reversals are so sharp you can not manually exit at the right level. easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based o n a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
EASYMARKETS:OILUSDShort
by easyMarkets
Oil Huge Trendline Support Held for nowThe big consolidation wedge from the last 12 months continues to support on the downside and so far capped topside. As we bounce here we look for key resistances levels and different scenarios. Buy Level #1 pullback to this zone 100.538 - 101.419 Buy Level #2 R/S Flip of 102.827 and holding of 50EMA (red line) easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
EASYMARKETS:OILUSDLong
by easyMarkets
WTI @ Crispy PotatoThe forecast for week 2 of May 2022 is a higher probability of Bulls. This assessment in no way considered financial advice. The week produced a Bull candle with a solid finish to the week because there is a teeny small tail at the top. During the week, there was a Bear move attempt but it was rejected. The candle did close above the previous week's high, this increases the probability of a Bull candle this week. The volume was still decent but marginally down from the previous week, although the candle body was decent, so easy gains for little trading indicate demand. The OBV has begun to trend upward. The probability is for the Bulls this Week chart. Onto the Day Chart, the candles Mon and Tues were minimal and dormant, Wed it burst into life sparking a movement, and it broke a weak down-trending resistance line. The Bull candles continued on Thur and Fri with an increase in volume. With that resistance line now broken the Bull will have to challenge the next two horizontal points at 116 and 125. The OBV is trending upward, another piece of pieces of evidence that pretty much gives a clean sweep for a Bull week.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by eatmycrispypotato
Crude Oil continues upward momentumAs projected previously, Crude Oil prices are spiking and momentum continue to suggest that it is on track, and just might accelerate. Weekly chart closed with bullish momentum pattern and above average of the recent weeks. Long lower tails and close near the weekly tops suggest bullish momentum (also picking up?) The daily chart is now holding above a consolidation range, and technicals support the upward push to the next higher level. Closing above 120 will firmly put 165 in the target zone.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
1
⭐️BRENT: forecast for May 2-May 6➡️ The volatility of the oil market remains high, which is due to the aggravation of the energy crisis in Europe against the backdrop of the first precedents for stopping the supply of Russian hydrocarbons to some EU countries. The Wall Street Journal news agency reported yesterday that German officials withdrew their objections to a total embargo on Russian energy supplies, asking only for time to find alternative suppliers. Recall that the position of Germany was the main obstacle to the introduction of such an embargo in the EU. The United States and Great Britain have already refused to buy Russian oil. The change in the rhetoric of German representatives was a reaction to the suspension of natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, since these countries refused to pay for deliveries in rubles. This raised concerns that the Russian Federation could stop deliveries to other European countries. Meanwhile, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday that Russia's oil production could fall by 17% this year due to sanctions. Market participants seriously admit that a very likely decision on a complete embargo on the supply of Russian energy resources may provoke a shock scenario, as a result of which the shortage of oil and petroleum products on the world market will increase to 3 million barrels per day. This news background completely offset the prevailing effect on prices, which was previously caused by concerns about the prospects for global economic growth due to anti-COVID restrictions in China. Investors are concerned about the spread of COVID-19 in Beijing, which could force the Chinese government to impose a general lockdown on the city. The prolonged lockdown in Shanghai, China's largest city and commercial hub, has already weighed on the oil market, undermining demand expectations. Considering all of the above, it is most likely more profitable to hold oil longs. Technical analysis just supports this rhetoric. The chart shows two long entry points. The conservative target for this week is the 110$ level, it makes sense to also consider the 115$ level. 🔥 BRENT Forecast Results 🔥 ☑️BRENT: small update 👉 +590 points ✅: ⭐️BRENT: forecast for Apr 25-Apr 29 👉 +531 points ✅: ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 👍 Thanks for your comments and likes 👍 👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
TVC:UKOILLong
by TradePlus-Fx
2
USOIL Potential for Bearish Dip | 28th AprilWe are expecting price to dip from sell entry level of 102.73 in line with 50% fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 97.82 in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below Ichimoku cloud indicator. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
TVC:USOILShort
by FXCM
BRENT CRUDE OIL BULLISH PREDICTIONSBoth WTI and BRENT Crude Oil benchmarks rose in price on Tuesday (26th of April) after China announced that it will support its economy in case of a lockdown and the fears of diminishing demand have been eased. If the rally continues it will most likely test its previous high at 109.5, in the opposite scenario, the price might test its support at 99.3 MACD and RSI are showing a slow down of the bullish trend from the last few hours, but with eased lack of demand fears the price might return its momentum. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by legacyFXofficial
Bearish WTIHello Traders On Saturday I posted this idea already The price did not break out of the big triangle yet (as I mentioned in the last idea), but there is a smaller triangle I did not mention where the price did break out last week. Friday night the price was testing the triangle resistance and pushed down. Yesterday it broke out off the bearish flag and is now testing the resistance at 9700 again, plus a hidden bearish divergence on H1 has emerged. It looks like the price will close under the H1 100 EMA. If, then there is a big chance for more downside momentum. A close below the big triangle bottom will give more downside pressure till 8800 maybe till 7600 if it breaks through the support at 8800. Here are some fundamentals: - Chinese Covid woes. The lockdown in Shanghai (China’s largest city) is putting a cloud over oil’s demand prospects. - US production is expected to slowly but surely increase over the coming months. Traders should continue to monitor global inventory levels, production and the situation in Shanghai. Good trades!
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by Alternative_ALF