Get started

WTI

Oil, Up or Down?On the daily chart, it can be observed that crude oil has rejected the crucial 71.67 resistance as sellers entered the market to position for a drop back towards the 65 level. For the buyers, they will require the price to break above this resistance in order to start targeting the major trendline around the 76 level. Interesting enough, there are two banks given contradictory forecast, MKTNews reports, RABOBANK: OIL PRICES EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $70 NEXT YEAR DUE TO EMERGING SUPPLY SURPLUS UBS: OIL PRICES EXPECTED TO REBOUND ABOVE $80 PER BARREL AS INVENTORIES DECLINE
CFI:WTI
by Tekapo-Invest
4
China's policies, Middle East developments support oilWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL reached over 72 USD/barrel supported by the Chinese Government's lightning-fast policy support for the economy and the situation in the Middle East is very tense. All of these geopolitical factors are driving oil prices even higher. In addition, natural conditions also threaten supply from the US, the world's largest crude oil producer, pushing oil prices up. China's massive stimulus policy Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced a series of stimulus measures at a press conference in Beijing today (Tuesday), a clear sign of the broadest effort yet by the Policymakers aim to achieve an annual growth target of around 5% this year. This is the largest stimulus measure since the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic. The measures announced today include: boosting bank lending to consumers and businesses and cutting the People's Bank of China's key short-term interest rate, which will support growth and energy demand in the world's largest oil importer. New developments in the Middle East Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese authorities said air strikes killed 492 people and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes. Oil prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts because this region (Lebanon) plays an important role in oil production. The attack risks bringing OPEC oil producer Iran, which backs Hezbollah, closer to a conflict with Israel and could trigger a wider war in the Middle East region, which in turn could continues to push for support for crude oil as supply is threatened. In particular, this conflict could completely involve Iran, a major member of OPEC, and could further disrupt crude oil supplies from the Middle East. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is showing the initial conditions for a bull run with the RSI steeply upward sloping past 50, along with price activity moving upwards. the 21-day moving average which acted as resistance previously. However, WTI crude oil will need to temporarily break the 72.65 USD level to fully confirm the technical conditions for a bullish cycle with a short-term target level of around 74.39 USD. In the short term, the trend of WTI crude oil is more inclined towards price increases with notable positions listed as follows. Support: 70.90 – 70.49 – 69.37USD Resistance: 72.65 – 74.39USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: US Election Oil Play1. Introduction The 2024 US Presidential Election could have a significant impact on global markets, especially energy sectors like crude oil. With key policies and geopolitical tensions hinging on the outcome, many traders are eyeing a potential price surge in WTI Crude Oil futures. Our prior article (linked below) presented a potential opportunity for crude oil prices to rise by over 40% within a year following the election. This could bring WTI Crude Oil Futures (CLZ2025) from its current price of 67.80 to around 94.92. To capitalize on this potential opportunity, a strategic options play can be used to leverage this potential move, providing not only a chance to profit from a bullish breakout but also some protection against downside risk. This article explores a Breakout Booster Play using options on the December 2025 WTI Crude Oil futures contract (CLZ2025), designed to benefit from a possible post-election oil price surge. 2. Technical Overview In analyzing the December 2025 WTI Crude Oil Futures (CLZ2025), a strong support level is identified. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligns perfectly with a UFO support zone at 55.62, suggesting a significant area where buying interest could emerge if prices fall to this level. The current price of CLZ2025 is 67.80, and the technical analysis points to the possibility of a substantial bullish move following the 2024 US Presidential Election. The projected price increase of 40% could push crude oil prices up to 94.92 over the next year. However, even a more conservative target of 20% (around 81.36) could offer considerable upside potential. This analysis provides the foundation for constructing an options strategy that not only takes advantage of the potential upside but also offers a buffer zone against downside risk by capitalizing on key support levels. 3. The Options Strategy The options strategy we'll use here is a Breakout Booster Play designed to take advantage of the expected rise in crude oil prices. Here's how the strategy is constructed: 1. Sell 2 Puts at the 55 Strike: Expiring on November 17, 2025, these puts are sold to collect a premium of approximately 3.27 points per contract. By selling 2 puts, we collect a total of 6.54 points. This creates a buffer zone, allowing us to take on some downside risk while still profiting if prices remain above 55. 2. Buy 1 Call at the 71 Strike: Also expiring on November 17, 2025, the call is purchased for 6.28 points. This call gives us the potential for unlimited upside if crude oil prices rise above 71. Net Cost: The net cost of this strategy is minimal, with the collected premium from the puts (6.54) offsetting most of the cost of the call (6.28). The result is a credit of 0.26 points, meaning the trader gets paid to enter this position. Break-Even Points: The position would lose money only if crude oil falls below 54.87 (factoring in the premium collected). Profit potential becomes significant if crude oil rises above 71, with large gains expected if the projected move to 81.36 or 94.92 materializes. This strategy effectively positions the trader to profit from an upward breakout while maintaining a buffer against downside risk. If crude oil drops, losses are limited unless it falls below 54.87, at which point the trader would be required to take delivery of 2 crude oil futures contracts (long). 4. Profit and Risk Analysis Profit Potential: The key advantage of this options strategy is its profit potential on the upside. If crude oil prices rise above 71, the purchased call will start gaining value significantly. If crude oil reaches 94.92 (a 40% increase from the current price), the long call will be deep in the money, resulting in substantial profits. Even if the price rises more conservatively to 81.36 (a 20% increase), the strategy still allows for meaningful gains as the call appreciates. Since the net entry cost is essentially zero (with a small credit of 0.26 points), the potential profit is high, and it becomes especially powerful above 71, with unlimited upside. Risk Management: This strategy comes with a 19% buffer before any losses occur at expiration, as the break-even point is 54.87. However, it is important to note that if the trade is closed before expiration, losses could be realized if crude oil prices have dropped, even if the price is above 55. Risk Pre-Expiration: If crude oil prices fall sharply, especially before expiration, the trader could face significant losses. The risk is theoretically unlimited because, as the market moves against the sold puts, their value could rise dramatically. If a trader needs to close the position early, those puts could be worth significantly more than the premium initially collected, resulting in losses. Potential Margin Calls: If crude oil drops far enough, the trader may receive a margin call on the short puts. This could happen well before the price reaches 54.87, depending on the speed and size of the drop. If not managed properly, this could force the trader to close the position at a significant loss. While there is a built-in buffer, this trade requires active monitoring, particularly if crude oil prices start to decline. Risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders, rolling options, or hedging, should be considered to mitigate losses in case the market moves unexpectedly. 5. Contract Specs and Margins WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) Tick Size: The minimum price fluctuation is 0.01 per barrel. Tick Value: Each 0.01 movement equals $10 per contract. Margin Requirement: Approximately $6,100 per contract (subject to change based on market volatility). Micro Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Tick Value: Each 0.01 movement equals $1 per contract. Margin Requirement: Approximately $610 per contract, offering a lower capital requirement for smaller positions. Why Mention Both? Traders with larger capital allocations may prefer using standard WTI Crude Oil futures contracts, given their greater exposure and tick value. However, for smaller or more conservative traders, Micro Crude Oil Futures (MCL) provide a more accessible way to enter the market while maintaining the same exposure ratios in a smaller size. 6. Summary and Conclusion This options strategy provides a powerful way to capitalize on a potential post-election rally in crude oil prices, while offering downside protection. The combination of selling 2 puts at the 55 strike and buying 1 call at the 71 strike, all expiring on November 17, 2025, creates a structured approach to profit from a bullish breakout. With current analysis based on machine learning suggesting a potential 40% increase in crude oil prices over the next year, the long call offers unlimited profit potential above 71. At the same time, the sale of the puts at the 55 strike gives the strategy a 19% buffer, with the break-even point at expiration being 54.87. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CLZ2025Education
by traddictiv
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - 230 ticks surprise downside by the bears but bulls prevented the ugly daily bar, which leaves us with a neutral bear bar. Market closed above the daily ema and right at the bull trend line that was broken earlier. Selling was strong enough to expect a second leg but anything below 69 would surprise me. comment: Finally some decent selling again. Bears need to keep it below 71 to trap many late bulls buying too high. I have a measured move target around 67.2 but for now I doubt we get that low. Selling today was strong enough to expect a second leg. Given the fast move upwards, I would not look to buy this dip and wait until market has found a better bottom than 69.5. current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart key levels: 69.5 - 72 bull case : Bulls bought the lows but need to get above 70.60 to stay inside the bull channel. They would also need to close the current bear gap to 70.8ish to have better arguments to trade back up. They prevented the worst by closing above the daily ema and not letting the bear bar looking too good so market is pretty neutral going into tomorrow. Above 70.7 I favor the bulls for 71 or 72 again. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears want a second leg down to 68 or lower. If they can generate strong follow through tomorrow, many bulls could cover their longs and the selling might accelerate. For now it’s low probability and more likely is more sideways movement and some oscillating around the daily ema. Invalidation is above 70.7. short term: Neutral between 70-71, bearish below 69.5 and bullish above 70.7. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade: None trade of the day : I was in denial of the strength of the selling. 2m ema was not touched and that could have been the trade of the month. Bar 41+42 formed a double top with the bars 2-4 and bar 43 was strong enough to flip market always in short. Very bad trading on my end to not take it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI CRUDE OIL: Last short term buy.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 51.729, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 25.961) as it pulled back to the 4H MA50 intra day. The fact that it held, suggests that it remains the short term support of this uptrend that is targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 72.50) where so far we have had three straight rejections since August. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
1
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 70.11 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 68.26 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 73.00 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
2
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Daily bars looking weak but it does not matter, it’s a small pullback bull trend and it’s going higher. Not a single bar went below the previous so we are max bullish. 72 is very likely get hit on Monday and the first bigger target is 73. There market decides if this bigger bear trend is still alive or we have found a credible bottom at 64. Quote from last week: comment: Selling the 4h ema on Tuesday was as perfect as it gets. Bulls bought the lows again and 65 held. Neutral around 68 because both sides have reasonable arguments. But also this: Given the max bearish sentiment that everyone and their dog is writing about on x, I favor the bulls to trap late bears much more than I expect continued selling but as long as bears are below the daily ema, they are in control of the market. comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 64-74 bull case: 4h tf. Look at it. Every touch is bought. Until that stops, only look for longs. Bulls are only making higher lows and higher highs. Their next target is the obvious bear trend line around 73.5/73.7. Even if bears come around and print something below 70, bulls would most likely buy it for a retest of 71.5 or 72. Invalidation is below 68.5. bear case: Bears who sold below 67 were trapped and market just keeps going higher. Bears gave up completely on Thursday and Friday was most likely bulls taking profits and opex things why we stalled. Until bears print something below 69, they have no arguments as of now. Sure we are still inside the bear channel but the upper trend line is still almost 400 ticks away. Best they can probably get is sideways movement 70-72. Invalidation is above 72. outlook last week: short term: Neutral around 68. I have alerts and wait for one side to clearly take control again. Slightly favoring the bulls if they stay above 68 and get momentum going again. → Last Sunday we traded 68.65 and now we are at 71. Bad outlook. Bulls took over completely. I still think it was a surprise since market did not even retest anything below 67. Would give the outlook again. short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bull trend lines from the 4h tf.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
1
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to overlap supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 70.11 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 68.26 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 73.00 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback support at 50% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 68.63 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 65.05 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support. Take profit is at 73.00 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
2
2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Strong second leg up (daily tf) and bulls even tried to break above the bear flag but for now I doubt the breakout will be succesful. We are right in the middle of the broad bear channel and odds are 50/50 for either side. Above 72 odds rise for the bulls and below 69.5 I favor the bears again. comment: In my weekly outlook I wrote that if 65 holds, bulls are favored for 73 or 74. High today was 71.92. I doubt bulls are strong enough to break above the bull channel and make the pullback even steeper. 50% pullback from the selloff since 77 is around 71.5, so we are right in the middle of the broad bear channel. Odds favor the bears to test the lower bull channel around 70.5 again. If bulls fail there and bears can break below, we will likely see a retest of 67 or 66. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 66 - 74 bull case: Bulls got decent follow through and they want an endless pullback for the bears and keep going until they hit the upper bear trend line around 74.5. They are trading above the 4h 20ema and every touch of it is bought. As long as they keep it above 70, higher prices are expected. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears see this bear flag with 3 pushes up as done and the 50% pb is high enough to try for a continuation of the bear trend. Don’t be among the first to join them. Confirmation would be a 15m bar close below 70 and a break below the bull channel. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral around the 50% pb 71.5. Bearish below 70 and bullish above 72. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Buying the 4h 20ema is profitable again.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
A New President's Potential Impact on Oil Prices1. Introduction The U.S. presidential election in 2024 is set to bring new leadership, with a new president guaranteed to take office. As history has shown, political transitions often have a profound effect on financial markets, and crude oil is no exception. Traders, investors and hedgers are now asking the critical question: how will WTI Crude Oil futures react to this change in leadership? While there is much speculation about how a Democrat versus a Republican might shape oil policy, data-driven insights provide a more concrete outlook. Using a machine learning model based on key U.S. economic indicators, we’ve identified potential movements in crude oil prices, spanning short, medium, and long-term timeframes. 2. Key Machine Learning Predictions for Crude Oil Prices Short-Term (1 Week to 1 Month): Based on the machine learning model, the immediate market reaction within the first week following the election is expected to be minimal, with predicted price changes below 2% for both a Republican and Democratic win. The one-month outlook also suggests additional opportunity. Medium-Term (1 Quarter to 1 Year): The model shows a significant divergence in crude oil prices over the medium term, with a potential sharp upward movement one year after the election. Regardless of which party claims the presidency, WTI crude oil prices could potentially rise by over 40%. This is in line with historical trends where significant price shifts occurred one year post-election, driven by economic recovery, fiscal policies, and broader market sentiment. Long-Term (4 Years): Over the course of the full four-year presidential term, the model predicts more moderate growth, averaging around 15%. The data suggests that, while short-term market movements may seem reactive, the long-term outlook is more balanced and less influenced by the winning party. Instead, economic conditions, such as interest rates and industrial activity, will have a more sustained impact on crude oil prices. 3. Feature Importance: The Drivers Behind Crude Oil Price Movements The machine learning model's analysis highlights that crude oil price movements, especially one year after the election, are primarily driven by economic indicators, rather than the political party in power. Below are the top features influencing crude oil prices: Top Economic Indicators Influencing Crude Oil: Fed Funds Rate: The most significant driver of crude oil prices, as interest rate policies affect everything from borrowing costs to overall economic growth. Changes in the Fed Funds Rate can signal shifts in economic activity that directly impact oil demand apart from the US Dollar itself. Labor Force Participation Rate: A critical indicator of economic health, a higher participation rate suggests a stronger labor market, which supports increased industrial activity and energy consumption, including crude oil. Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI reflects inflation at the producer level, impacting the cost of goods and services, including oil-related industries. Consumer Sentiment Index: A measure of the general public's outlook on the economy, which indirectly influences energy demand as consumer confidence affects spending patterns. Unit Labor Costs: An increase in labor costs can signal inflationary pressures, which could lead to changes in oil prices as businesses pass on higher costs to consumers. This study exclusively uses U.S. economic data, excluding oil-related fundamentals such as OPEC+ supply and demand information, in order to focus on the election’s direct impact through domestic economic channels. Minimal Influence of Political Party on Price Movements: Interestingly, the machine learning model suggests that the political party of the newly elected president has a relatively low impact on crude oil prices. The performance of WTI crude oil appears to be more closely tied to macroeconomic factors, such as employment data and inflation, than the specific party in power. These findings emphasize the importance of focusing on economic fundamentals when analyzing crude oil price movements for longer term exposures, rather than solely relying on political outcomes. 4. Historical Analysis of Crude Oil Price Reactions to U.S. Elections Looking back over the last two decades, the performance of crude oil post-election has varied, depending on global conditions and the economic policies of the newly elected president. Notable Historical Movements: George W. Bush (Republican): In his 2000 election, crude oil dropped nearly 50% within a year, reflecting the broader economic fallout from the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the events of 9/11. In contrast, his 2004 re-election saw oil prices climb 21.5% within a year, driven by the Iraq War and increasing global demand for energy. Barack Obama (Democratic): After his 2008 election, crude oil prices surged by 33.8% within one year, partly due to economic recovery efforts following the global financial crisis. His 2012 re-election saw more modest growth, with an 8.3% rise over the same period. Donald Trump (Republican): His election in 2016 coincided with a moderate 23.8% increase in crude oil prices over one year, as the U.S. ramped up energy production through fracking, contributing to global supply increases. Joe Biden (Democratic): Most recently, crude oil prices skyrocketed by over 100% in the year following Biden’s 2020 victory, driven by post-pandemic economic recovery and supply chain disruptions that affected global energy markets. 5. WTI Crude Oil Contracts: CL and MCL Explained When trading crude oil futures, the two most popular contracts offered by the CME Group are WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) and Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL). Both contracts offer traders a way to speculate or hedge on the price movements of crude oil, but they differ in size, margin requirements, and ideal use cases. WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL): Price Fluctuations: The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $10 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: As of recent estimates, the margin requirement for trading a CL contract is around $6,000, though this can fluctuate depending on market volatility. Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL): Price Fluctuations: 10 times less. The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $1 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: 10 times less, around $600 per contract. Practical Application: During periods of heightened market volatility—such as the lead-up to and aftermath of a U.S. presidential election—traders can use both CL and MCL contracts to navigate expected price fluctuations. Larger traders might use CL to hedge against or capitalize on significant price movements, while retail traders may prefer MCL for smaller, controlled exposure. 6. Conclusion As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, crude oil traders are watching closely for market signals. While political outcomes can cause short-term volatility, the machine learning model’s predictions emphasize that broader economic factors will drive crude oil prices more significantly over the medium and long term. Whether a Democrat or Republican wins, crude oil prices are expected to see a potential increase, particularly one year after the election. This surge, driven by factors such as interest rates, labor market health, and inflation, suggests that traders should focus on these economic indicators rather than placing too much weight on which party claims the presidency. 7. Risk Management Reminder Navigating market volatility, especially during a presidential election period, requires careful risk management. Crude oil traders, whether trading standard WTI Crude Oil futures (CL) or Micro WTI Crude Oil futures (MCL), should be mindful of the following strategies to mitigate potential risks: Use of Stop-Loss Orders: Setting predefined exit points, traders can avoid significant drawdowns if the market moves against their position. Leverage and Margin Control: Overexposure can lead to margin calls and forced liquidation of positions in volatile markets. Position Sizing: Adjusting position sizes according to risk tolerance is vital especially during uncertain periods like elections. Hedging Strategies: Traders might consider hedging their crude oil positions with other instruments, such as options or spreads, to protect against unexpected market moves. Monitoring Economic Indicators: Keeping a close watch on key U.S. economic data can provide valuable clues to future crude oil futures price movements. By using these risk management tools effectively, traders can better navigate the expected volatility surrounding the 2024 U.S. election and protect themselves from significant market swings. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
5
US OIL / WTI Bullish Money Heist Plan on Long SideHola ola My Dear, Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, This is our master plan to Heist US OIL / WTI based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 1H timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan.....
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Thief_Trader
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 71.80 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 74.58 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 68.63 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?USOUSD is falling towards the support level that is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 67.83 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 66.26 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 70.43 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDLong
by VantageMarkets