Oil looks to be repeating itself... Bullish fundamentals are potentially setting up 'higher-for-longer' oil prices.
I think we might see a retrace down to the trend-line area given how far we have extended. Although, in any case be ready to jump on a bullish move.
If we start creating downtrend structure then sentiment might have shifted, noting US / EURO growth rates / interest rates are also being looked at by institutions as key demand factors.
WTI
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 85.03 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 83.60 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 88.12 which is a pullback resistance.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Oil: Thoughts and analysis Today's focus: Oil
Pattern – Continuation?
Support – 85.38
Resistance – 87.37
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at oil on the daily.
After a surge from the USD caught a lot of attention yesterday, we are watching oil after it rejected a push lower by sellers and continues to hold in a potential continuation type set-up.
Do you think that price is showing signs of a continuation? Could a close above yesterday's high signal a new move higher that could test resistance at 87.37?
Watch out for a new move lower that tests the 85.50 area, as that could be a sign that sellers have more numbers than first thought.
Good trading.
Wti 90 Strike is On Sale!There is something insightable happening with WTI oil.
90 strike and trade volume are attracting attention.
Check out Monday's trading data below. But to properly interpret it, we need to look at the data in the context of how the price of the asset has moved.
Comparing when the highest option trading activity was at the 90 strike and how the asset moved, the question becomes why the 90 option strike is being handoffed as prices move higher.
It's critical to note that open interest at the 90 strike did not increase, but the option flow from previous owners to new owners did (the amount of open interest did not increase, it actually decreased slightly).
Someone started buying at the 90 strike about 3 weeks ago and is now taking profits by selling their portfolio into the market, taking advantage of the rising price of call options. Our statistics show that such a scenario indicates a strong resistance level around the 90 strike and a likely bounce.
WTI remains on the 'buy the dip' statusMarket positioning data from the COT report shows that asset managers and large speculators are piling into longs, yet shorts remain subdued. The price on the 4-hour chart also shows an established uptrend within a bullish channel.
Prices have not yet completed a 3-wave retracement against the trend, hence the bias for a slightly deeper pullback before its trend resume. Also note that RSI (14) has not yet dipped into the oversold zone (which is now 40 given the strong uptrend).
Any pullbacks towards the internal trendline or $84 will pique our bullish interest for new longs, in anticipation of its next leg higher on route towards $90.
Oil unaffected by the Port of Baltimore's closureAfter breaking above the ascending channel and reaching its highest value in nearly six months late last week, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil retested the upper bound of the channel during yesterday’s trading session. The outlook continues to look bullish on daily and weekly time frames. Nevertheless, multiple indicators flash overbought signals on the daily chart, implying this might not be the best spot to enter the market on the long side, and instead, it might be preferable to wait for a more substantial correction.
While waiting for such an event, we would like to address a recent tragedy in Baltimore that captured national headlines and caused the closure of the Port of Baltimore. Some analysts proclaimed this to be the start of bigger problems for various supply chains. However, despite the event's emotional weight and social implications, its impact on the oil market has been minimal. That is mainly because the port’s imports are not made up of crude oil but rather petroleum-derived products, including biodiesel, asphalt, and numerous fertilizers (along with different non-petroleum products). Therefore, the port does not hold considerable significance to the oil market.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and the upward-sloping channel.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 85.033 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 83.400 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 88.105 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
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CRUDE OIL Heist Plan to Rob the oil barrelsHola Traders,
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Time for a small pullback before higher price tags?West Texas Intermediate crude oil has increased nearly 20% since the start of 2024 and is currently trading near $86.50 per barrel. The precarious situation in the Red Sea, production cuts by OPEC (and its allies), and the inability of the United States to bring more production online fast enough have greatly contributed to the rising oil prices in the past four months. Going forward, it is unlikely that the geopolitical issues in the Middle East will improve anytime soon, especially following a severe escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran earlier this week when Israel killed two Iranian generals by airstrike in Damascus, Syria (not to mention constant failures in peace negotiations between Hamas and Israel, and Israel’s plans to continue military operations in Gaza). These actions will likely provoke retaliation from Iran in the form of more attacks on Israel through its proxies. As these relationships seem to have entered a spiral of reciprocating aggression, the odds of a huge war spillover continue to grow, which has enormous implications for this oil-rich producing region and the oil market itself.
On the subject of technicals, the daily and weekly time frames are bullish. However, the USOIL broke above the ascending channel on Tuesday, and the RSI reached overbought territory on the daily timeframe. Besides that, the price also deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, which increases the chances of a short-term pullback in the price of oil. Nonetheless, the probability of oil reaching $90 per barrel in the coming weeks continues to rise.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the upward-sloping channel on USOIL’s daily chart. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout above the channel.
Illustration 1.02
The chart above illustrates simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Alternative support levels lay at $85.85, $83.56, and $79.72.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI H4 | Bullish momentum to extend after a pullback?WTI oil (USOIL) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 85.758 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 82.400 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 90.325 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Starting a new Bull Cycle. $200 possible.WTI Crude Oil appears to have completed a multi decade Bear Cycle that started during the 2008 subprime crisis. Such long term trends and patterns can only be viewed on monthly timeframes and for this analysis we have chosen the 3M. Technically Oil is only neutral on its 1M technical outlook (RSI = 54.985, MACD = 2.990, ADX = 14.499), which indicates its strong long term bullish potential.
As you can see both on RSI terms and pure candle action, Oil seems to be making a bullish reversal after the decline in early 2022, as it held the 3M MA50 on consecutive tests. This price action is very much like the January 2002 rebound, which evolved into a six year Channel Up towards the All Time High of the 2008 Crisis. See how before the 3M MA50 rebound, both patterns rebounded on their 3M MA200. We have to filter out the March-April 2020 monumental collapse to even negative price levels amidts the OPEC-Russia production war.
Both eras lasted for approximately the same time: 5571 days now as opposed to 5844 days in the past. This remarkable symmetry can lead us to a Channel Up rally well above $200 in the next 6 years. Even though fundamentally less realistic based on the current news structure, this is definitely technically plausible, in fact for us is a very probable reality, especially if inflation eventually starts picking up pace again.
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Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area of 88.00.Dear Colleagues, we expected the price to decline, but it seems that the upward movement is not over yet.
I expect the completion of wave "5", then a corrective movement in wave "B" of higher order in the area of 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels (83.62), after which I will consider only long positions to the resistance area of 88.00.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
USOil WTI Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaUSOil WTI Technical Analysis and Trade Idea
In the video, we analyse a potential trading opportunity for USOil. We delve into the prevailing trend, examine price movements, evaluate market structure, and pinpoint a potential entry point based on favourable conditions (if they arise), as outlined in the video. It is crucial to incorporate sound risk management principles into your trading strategy. As always, please be aware that this information is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
Oil Price Forecast: A Potential Bullish ScenarioThe latest COT report, combined with the activity in the options market and technical and graphical analysis, suggests a potential bullish scenario for oil prices.
The COT report indicates a bullish market sentiment for oil, with an increase in bullish commitments compared to the previous report.
Recent activity in the options market suggests that traders are expecting oil prices to rise within the range of 82 to 86 in April this year.
Technical and graphical analysis identifies push the range boundary, which could signal a bullish trend if the price manages to break through these levels.
!!!This forecast should be treated as a starting point for further analysis and decision-making.
!!!! It is important to note that market sentiment can change rapidly, and the forecast should not be considered as a guarantee of future price movements.
WTI aka USOILhello everyone, my last analysis came true (for short position).. price is becoming bullish in the weekly timeframe as of now, however there will be more manipulation next week with the major news (NFT and FOMC meeting)... price is trading above the support level, candle closing above the support level would indicate a possible swing trade. However monthly candle is still bearish (use caution as this could be just minor correction to tp1) .. DXY is bearish so far the expected target is 99 (support level) (short position)... dxy is trading below support level 101.7...
For all Canadian here: Buy HOU EFT stock when WTI/USOIL is bullish
good luck to everyone..