DRQ: Falling Wedge with Bullish Divergence at a 0.886 RetraceDRQ shows notable Bullish Divergences on both the Monthly and Quarterly Timeframes at a 0.886 Fibonacci Retrace and is currently trading within a Falling Wedge.
If the Bullish Divergence and Falling Wedge play out, I would expect to see DRQ make its way up to around $60 as a first target and around $94 as a full profit target.
WTI
Price Retest Support WTI H1In D1, price is currently making a retracement after making swing high. In the lower time frame, price is currently making sideways especially in H1 time frame. Currently price is coming back at the support area in H1 make it as a third time of retest support before. If the price break H1 trend line upward. Price may move up and the support before. There is rejection at the support area.
BRIEFING Week #8 : Breadth is Horrible, Be Cautious !Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilwti crude oil
The chart and my drawn wave outlook is the low probability thesis. More probable is a continuation of the trading range 68-78 or 70-80, whatever price you find more appealing, same outcome.
bull case: Bulls still prevented bears from a strong move down, as they had the last months, after a rally and we are still trading above the daily 20ema. We formed a trading range after the bull spike and i adjusted the lower wedge trend line which could hold but for that, bulls need to start the week strong and have immediate follow through. They still want to trade to 80 and touch the upper bear trend line which has started 2022-03.
bear case: Bears see a good looking bear bar from Friday and want follow through selling on Monday to get back below the daily 20ema. If they can break the ema and the bull wedge trend line, they have a good chance of a reversal back down to 70.
outlook last week: “sideways to up - invalid below 75”
→ Last Sunday we traded 78.46 and now we are at 76.49. the week was mostly sideways. if bears can push below 75 i say i was wrong but so far oil is above the important support prices
short term: slight favor for the bulls to reverse Friday and trade above 79, there could still be resistance if bulls won’t push above with some force. bears win below 75 for at least 74 or lower
medium-long term: same as last weeks. sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84
A Renko Trading Strategy - Part 3Part 3: Patterns in Renko Charts
Renko charts, like other charting methods, have identifiable patterns that traders look for as indicators of potential market movements. These patterns are appreciated for their simplicity and effectiveness in highlighting trends and reversals without the noise of minor price movements. Here are some common patterns observed in Renko charts, applicable across various markets:
1. Trend Patterns
Uptrend/Downtrend: Consecutive bricks of the same color indicate a trend. An uptrend is shown by a series of green (or white) bricks, while a downtrend is depicted by red (or black) bricks. The more consecutive bricks, the stronger the trend.
2. Reversal Patterns
Double Top and Double Bottom: These patterns occur when the price reaches a certain level twice but fails to break through. In Renko charts, a double top is indicated by the bricks failing to move higher after reaching a high point twice, suggesting a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. Similarly, a double bottom indicates a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Head and Shoulders (and Inverse): This pattern is harder to spot in Renko charts due to their simplified nature but can still be identified. A head and shoulders pattern indicates a reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend, while an inverse head and shoulders suggests a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
3. Consolidation Patterns
Rectangles: These occur when bricks alternate colors within a range, indicating market consolidation or a period of indecision. A breakout from this pattern can indicate the direction of the next significant move.
4. Breakout Patterns
Support and Resistance Breakouts: Renko charts clearly show support (a level where price consistently finds a floor) and resistance (a ceiling where price tends to top out). A breakout occurs when bricks pass through these levels, potentially indicating the start of a new trend.
Strategy Implications
Patterns in Renko charts can be used to devise trading strategies:
Entry Points: Patterns like breakouts from consolidation ranges or reversals can provide clear entry points.
Exit Points: Recognizing the end of a trend pattern or the completion of a reversal pattern can serve as a signal to exit a position to maximize gains or minimize losses.
Stop-Loss Placement: Patterns can help identify significant levels for placing stop-loss orders, such as below a recent bottom in an uptrend or above a recent top in a downtrend.
Advantages and Limitations
The advantage of using Renko charts and identifying these patterns lies in the chart's ability to filter out minor price movements, making it easier to spot meaningful trends and reversals. However, because time and volume are not considered, Renko charts may not always reflect the full picture of market dynamics. Traders often use them in conjunction with other analysis tools to make more informed decisions.
These patterns, while straightforward in theory, require practice to identify effectively and use within a comprehensive trading strategy.
Part 4: Incorporating Patterns with Strategy
to-follow
A Renko Trading Strategy - Part 2Part 2: Devising a Strategy with Renko
Devising a trading strategy using Renko charts with three different brick sizes for the same market, like crude oil, and analyzing them on the same time scale can provide insights into market trends and momentum at various levels. The following is one of many possible approaches:
1. Choose Brick Sizes
Select three different brick sizes that represent short-term, medium-term, and long-term market movements. For example:
Short-term: 10 ticks
Medium-term: 25 ticks
Long-term: 50 ticks
These sizes could be chosen based on the volatility of the market and your trading goals.
2. Set Up Charts Side by Side
Prepare three Renko charts for crude oil, each with one of the chosen brick sizes. Analyzing them side by side or simultaneously will allow you to get insight into how they compare within the same time.
3. Define Your Strategy
A strategy could involve looking for confluence among the charts, where signals on multiple brick sizes align, indicating a stronger trend or reversal. Here’s a potential approach:
Trend Confirmation: A trend appears on the long-term chart (50 ticks), and you look for entries when the medium-term (25 ticks) chart aligns with this trend. The short-term chart (10 ticks) can provide specific entry points that minimize risk, as you're entering on minor pullbacks or consolidations within a larger confirmed trend.
Trend Reversals: If the short-term chart shows a reversal pattern not yet visible on the medium- or long-term charts, it could be an early signal. Confirm this signal if the reversal starts to appear on the medium-term chart, suggesting a more significant shift in market sentiment.
Divergence: If the short-term chart diverges from the medium- and long-term trends, it might indicate a potential reversal or a weakening trend. Use this information cautiously to either take profits from existing positions or prepare for a trend change.
4. Implement Risk Management
Regardless of the signals, always have a clear risk management strategy. Decide on stop-loss levels and take-profit points based on the chart that you're using for entry signals. For example, if you're entering based on the short-term chart, you might set tighter stop-loss levels than if you're entering based on medium-term signals.
5. Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment
The effectiveness of this strategy can vary over time due to changes in market volatility and conditions. Regularly review and adjust the brick sizes and strategy parameters as needed to align with the current market environment.
6. Example Strategy Execution
Entry: Enter a trade when all three charts show a clear trend in the same direction. For example, if all charts show an uptrend, consider taking a long position.
Exit: Consider exiting or taking profit if the short-term chart shows a significant reversal pattern, even if the medium- and long-term charts still indicate an uptrend. This could preempt a broader market reversal.
Conclusion
This multi-scale Renko chart strategy allows for a nuanced view of market dynamics, combining the clarity of trend confirmation with the sensitivity to early reversal signals. By integrating signals from different time perspectives, you can make more informed decisions and potentially improve the risk-reward ratio of your trades.
Part 3: Patterns in Renko Charts
to-follow
A Renko Trading StrategyPart 1: A Brief Overview
In traditional Renko charts, time does not play a role in when a new brick is printed; bricks are purely based on price movement reaching a specified threshold. However, some variations and adaptations of Renko charts integrate time or other criteria to align more closely with certain trading strategies or preferences.
Tradingview combines elements of time-based filtering with the price movement criteria of standard Renko charts. By allowing someone to set not only the size of the brick (representing the minimum price movement required to print a new brick) but also the length of time the price must remain beyond this threshold to validate the brick, this approach introduces a hybrid element to the construction of Renko charts.
This modification can help to filter out even more noise by ensuring that only price movements that are sustained for the specified period contribute to the formation of the chart. It could be particularly useful for traders looking to avoid false signals that might result from brief, sharp price movements that don't represent a true change in market sentiment.
Incorporating time into Renko charts can make them somewhat more similar to traditional time-based charting methods, providing a hybrid that retains the noise-filtering benefits of Renko while adding an extra layer of confirmation to the price moves. This can be a valuable tool for traders who wish to fine-tune their analysis by considering both significant price changes and the persistence of these changes over time.
The size of the brick in Renko charts directly influences the chart's sensitivity to price changes, and as a consequence, it indirectly affects its sensitivity to time as well, although time is not explicitly considered in traditional Renko chart construction.
A larger brick size makes the chart less sensitive to price movements. This is because a larger price change is required to add a new brick to the chart, which can lead to fewer bricks being printed over a given period. This reduction in sensitivity means that minor price fluctuations are effectively filtered out, highlighting more significant trends. Consequently, when you use a larger brick size, the chart might appear similar across different time frames because only substantial price movements are recorded, and these are less frequent.
With WTI s an example, setting the brick size to 25 ticks filters out all price movements that are smaller than this. Whether you're looking at a 1-minute or an 11-minute timeframe, the chart will only update when the price moves by 25 ticks or more from the last brick. If the market is relatively stable or if price changes are within this 25-tick range, the Renko chart will remain unchanged, making the chart appear similar across these different time observations.
This characteristic of Renko charts makes them particularly useful for identifying and trading based on longer-term trends, as it diminishes the impact of short-term volatility and noise. The choice of brick size is a fundamental decision for traders using Renko charts, as it needs to balance the desire to filter out insignificant price movements with the need to capture meaningful market moves timely.
Part 2: Devising a Strategy with Renko
to follow
CRUDE OIL Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL has formed a
Bearish wedge pattern
And is now trying to
Make a bearish breakout
So we are bearish baised
And IF the breakout is confirmed
Then we can go short
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
WTI Oil H1 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 78.007 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 76.200 which is a level that leis underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 79.727 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
✅CRUDE OIL BEARISH BIAS|SHORT🔥
✅CRUDE OIL went up again
To retest the horizontal
Resistance of 79.61$ from
Where i believe we will see
A local bearish correction
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area of 79.37.Dear colleagues, I assume that the price has started another five-wave structure. At the moment I suppose that the price may test the area of 50% Fibonacci level of 76.73, then I expect the price to come to the resistance area of 79.37.
But maybe wave 2 will not happen and we will see an extension of wave 1.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI Oil H4 | Heading into multi-swing-high resistanceWTI oil (USO/USD) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 79.459
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing-high resistance level
Stop Loss: 81.319
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 127.2% extension and the 61.8% retracement levels
Take Profit: 76.026
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
WTI crude looks set to bounceMomentum has clearly been in favour of bears over the past week for WTI traders, but given it has fallen over 10% from the January high it could be argued the move is oversold (at least over the near term).
A doji formed on Monday to show bears are losing their grip, and the fact it is forming a base above the 2023 open price and $72 handle adds to the case for a technical bounce. Moreover, bears entered around the January highs but volumes declined as prices fell to suggest the move is running out of steam, and RSI (2) was oversold on Friday.
The bias is for a bounce towards the weekly and monthly pivot points around 74.50 - 74.80 whilst prices remain above Monday's low.
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?😳 (2D TF UPDATE)Oil moving very smooth in our predicted direction! While it'll be a loss for majority of the public who suffer from higher Oil prices, we'll be profiting as we've managed to get in on the right side of the market📈
Buyers still holding strong, making sellers fail in taking out the previous Wave 4 low. GET INTO LONG TERM OIL POSITIONS NOW!
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?😳 (12H UPDATE):Oil moving very smooth in our predicted direction! While it'll be a loss for majority of the public who suffer from higher Oil prices, we'll be profiting as we've managed to get in on the right side of the market📈
Buyers still holding strong, making sellers fail in taking out the previous Wave 4 low. GET INTO LONG TERM OIL POSITIONS NOW!
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOUSD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 77.108
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 75.528
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lies under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 78.757
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 77.326 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 75.200 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 79.266 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
US OIL - Short IdeaI'd be interested to observe if the price initiates buy orders, capturing resting liquidity around previous highs, before transitioning to short positions. Let's wait
#202408 - a weekly priceaction market recap and outlook - oilGood evening and i hope you are well.
I try to keep it simple stupid (KISS) here with my chart this week.
bull case: bulls created a credible bottom around 70 and the buying pressure is there to get to 80 for the first time since 2023-11-07. There is a measured move target from the first leg i drew to around 82, the upper wedge trend line goes there and the big bear trend line starting from 2022-03 goes into that area as well. Decent enough probabilities if bulls can trade above 80 to also get to 82.
bear case: Bears see it as a trading range and bulls did not have a weekly close above 80 since 2023-11. They want a continuation of the range and sell everything above 78 because it has been working for 4 months now. Their first target is to trade below 77 and then a retest of the daily 20ema at 75. Bears have confidence in their assessment, because the bull legs in this trading range look much weaker than the bear legs.
outlook last week: “sideways (odds favor a small pullback) then up for targets 79-81”
→ Market was at 76.61 and is now at 78.46, so a good outlook since we got a decent dip to 75.6 before a big rally to 78.46
short term: sideways to up - invalid below 75
medium-long term: sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84
BRIEFING Week #7 : Some more Confirmations NeededHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
