WTI is still not done. This WTI up move is being very constructive & structured. very bullish
The down moves have little to no structure and when it appeared at resistance it was quickly denied and used as support. very bullish
WTI
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to 100% Fibo lvl 62.238.Colleagues! If we believe the wave pattern, the price is now in a strong impulsive downward movement.
I believe that the price will renew the lows and rush to the area of 100% Fibonacci extension to the area of 62.238.
Wave 3 lower wave should be completed there.
But we should not forget that the price is in wave 3 of the higher and middle order, which means that there are more chances for a downward movement!
There are 2 possible courses of action:
1) The riskier one is to open a short position on the market.
2) Conservative - wait for the price to rise, and enter with less risk.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI H1 | Bullish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 68.24, which is a pullback support close to 50% Fibo retracement
Our take profit will be at 70.11, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 66.95, which is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Usoil trade setupWest Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.30 on Wednesday. The WTI price trades flat after Ukraine used US ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time.
On Tuesday, Russia’s defense ministry said that Ukraine hit a facility in the Bryansk region with six ATACAMS missiles. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a possible nuclear strike. The rising geopolitical tensions could boost the WTI price for the time being. "This marks a renewed build up in tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and brings back into focus the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market," ANZ Bank analyst Daniel Hynes said.
WTI OIL 4H RSI Bullish Divergence sending a strong buy signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) stopped yesterday's rebound on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is now on a small pull-back. Technically that is the Resistance level it needs to break if it wants to break-out aggressively towards the long-term Resistance Zone.
There are high probabilities of doing so, as the 4H RSI formed Higher Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence against the Lower Lows of the price. In fact, it is the exact same formation as the October 01 Low that rebounded aggressively above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we are bullish on this one, targeting $76.00 (the 0.786 Fib currently).
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Oil prices rebound on geopolitical concerns in Eastern Europe
After a week of decline, oil prices rose sharply due to increased geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe, including the possibility of long-range missile attacks. Meanwhile, the IEA has noted a decline in global oil demand due to China's slowing economic growth. They added that this trend may result in an oversupply of 1 million barrels per day in the global crude oil market next year.
After testing a trend line, USOIL advanced to 69.00. However, the price remains below both EMAs and still maintains bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the trend line again, the price could fall further to the support at 64.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA21 and the 70.00 threshold, the price could gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 73.30.
2024-11-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - I talked about the previous low 66.72 extensively and today bears dipped below but bulls bought it with vengeance. We are on our way to 70 and a test of the bear trend line from the October high. I do expect the lows to be in and we go higher from here. Best for bulls would be to make 68 support and keep the market above, below I am probably wrong and we chop more at the lows.
comment : If bulls get follow through to 70 tomorrow, bulls are in control again until they fail at the bear trend line (breakout above is possible). I do think the low 66.27 can hold. Right now it’s unclear if bulls are as strong as today looks because it’s only an expanding triangle over the past 5 trading days and bulls could not close today above the daily 20ema which is 20 points above us. So it’s possible that the descending triangle continues for more days before we get a breakout. Not much interest in selling this though. Will continue to long against 67.
current market cycle : trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 66 - 70
bull case: Bulls need follow through and test 70 tomorrow. A close above it would turn the market always in long and bulls in full control then. The bear trend line is the next target to break but until that happens, 70 is likely resistance and we go more sideways.
Invalidation is below 66.27
bear case: Bears want to keep the trading range at the lows going since they are making new lows. Selling above 69 has been profitable for the past week and until that changes and bulls trap bears, we can expect bears to keep trying.
Invalidation is above 71.
short term: Neutral but looking for longs when it’s clear that bulls can keep the 1h ema support. Will otherwise wait for market to come down to 67/67.5 and scale into longs. No interest in selling.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying the liquidity grap down to 66.27. The price action there on the very low tf was really interesting. Basically bears just left. Two more quick retries but only made higher lows and then a giant give up bar by the bears for 123 ticks on the 1h tf.
WTI CRUDE OIL Strong rally about to start.WTI Crude Oil made a Double Bottom around 67.00 and rebounded back to test the 1hour MA200.
This is an identical pattern with the October 1st Double Bottom that was formed after a 1hour Death Cross.
The 1hour Golden Cross should be enough to confirm the start of a strong rally.
Buy and target 78.00 (just under Resistance A).
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#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral until bulls do more. 66.72 is still the low to be broken if bears want more downside, otherwise it’s a descending triangle with clear support around 67. It does look like bulls need an event to help them. Every small rip is sold and it’s a matter of time until one side gives up and we see another breakout. Last thing I want to be is bullish on this but until we have a daily close below 67, it’s huge support.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls.
comment: Huge support around 67 and bears need a daily close below for lower prices. Bulls a daily close above 69 for 70 and potentially 70.4. No more magic to it and I won’t make stuff up for the fun of it. Market has no direction for weeks and the range is tighter than my food exit. As long as market does not drop below 66.72, bulls are ok but it’s really tough to make money as a bull in this. If bears break that price, we go 65 next, followed by 63.5.
current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle)
key levels: 67 - 71
bull case: At this point I am too lazy to come up with something for either side. I follow the range and past pattern. Last week was bearish and support held. Next week I expect trading above 69-71. I stop being lazy once the given range breaks. Maybe long range missiles onto Russian Oil depots will help this break out.
Invalidation is below 66.7.
bear case: Either break below 66.7 or give up again. Below 66.7 we see 65.74 and then 65 next.
Invalidation is above 69.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks.
→ Last Sunday we traded 70.38 and now we are at 67.02. Bad outlook but will probably touch 70 tomorrow or Tuesday again. Probably was just off due to Sunday-Sunday.
short term: Neutral.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing worth mentioning.
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CRUDE OIL TIME TO BUIY|LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 65.50$
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target at 67.69$
LONG🚀
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WTI 68.6 d.p. reject / 66.3 below!11.15.24 WTI / USOIL / CL Plan
The 69.4 - 68.5 area has proved tough resistance. Long aren’t currently favourable, unless a retest shows a daily pivot reversal off 68.00 once more.
Price has rejected the 68.62 d.p. thus it’s likely to see bigger selling towards 66.30 (monthly 200 ema) as the 68.00 level is broken.
USDCAD - CAD look at the oil market!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. Due to the location of this currency pair at the ceiling of the channel, you can save a part of your purchase position. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions.
Monetary Policy in Canada
• Interest Rate Cuts:
Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previous forecast: 25 basis points). It is expected that this downward trend will continue, reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% by June 2025 (previous forecast: 2.50%).
Oil Developments in the U.S.
• Crude Oil Production:
U.S. crude oil production has reached 13.23 million barrels per day this year, slightly higher than the previous figure of 13.22 million. For 2024, production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day (a minor decrease from the previous forecast of 13.54 million barrels).
• Crude Oil Prices:
The average price of Brent oil in 2024 is projected at $80.95 per barrel (slightly higher than the previous forecast of $80.89). For 2025, the average is expected to decline to $76.06 per barrel (previous forecast: $77.59).
The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is estimated at $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.6 in 2025, slightly below earlier projections.
Oil Demand:
• U.S. oil demand for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 20.3 million and 20.5 million barrels per day, unchanged from previous forecasts.
OPEC and Production Adjustments:
• Lower Global Demand Growth Forecasts:
OPEC has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1.82 and 1.54 million barrels per day, respectively (previous forecasts: 1.93 and 1.64 million).
• Increased OPEC Production:
OPEC’s average crude production in October rose to 26. 53 million barrels per day, a 466,000-barrel increase from September, primarily due to higher output from Libya.
Geopolitical Issues and Iran’s Oil Policies
• Iran’s Response to Sanctions:
Iran’s oil minister announced that plans have been developed to maintain stable oil exports to counter potential policies from Donald Trump’s administration.
• Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S.:
Iranian sources reported that Tehran postponed an attack on Israel after Trump’s election to facilitate potential negotiations. Messages conveyed through Baghdad included recommendations to avoid escalating tensions and create an opportunity for talks.
Developments in Lebanon and Israel
• Ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon are nearing conclusion. Israeli sources have confirmed alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the ceasefire agreement. However, Lebanon’s situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions between Hezbollah, the parliament speaker, the prime minister, and U.S. officials.
WTI oil making its way to lowest point of this year?The commodity is near a key are of support right now, so let's see if today's US economic data can continue boosting the US dollar. If so, WTI oil may end up traveling further south.
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD TVC:USOIL
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WTI set for breakdown amid supply, demand concernsAlthough oil prices were trading higher at the time of this writing, it is becoming increasingly difficult to foresee a big rally at this stage, without any supply-side shocks.
WTI's price action has been quite heavy as it continues to make lower lows and lower highs. While it has held its own around the December 2023 levels of around $67.00 to $68.00 area, this could prove to be a temporary respite before we potentially see a bigger breakdown. Not only has oil broken the key $69.30 to $70.00 support range, which is now holding as resistance, sentiment towards oil is increasingly turning bearish amid growing signs of excess surplus from non-OPEC.
Indeed, the oil market is heading for a surplus next year, according to the IEA. The agency is forecasting an excess of over a million barrels per day, mainly due to faltering demand from China. Once the driver of global oil consumption, China has seen demand shrink for six consecutive months, largely as its economy pivots to electric vehicles and high-speed rail.
Growing supplies from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana keep the market well-supplied, says IEA. Demand growth this year and next will stay subdued due to slower economic growth and clean energy transitions.
OPEC+ plans to cautiously restart production, with a 180,000-barrel-per-day increase set for January, though they’ll reassess in December. With supply growth outpacing demand, the market is likely to stay comfortably stocked well into 2025.
Against this backdrop, crude oil looks set for a sharp drop after drifting lower in recent weeks.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
WTI Bottomed! - 68 close / targets!11.14.24 WTI / USOIL / CL Plan
69.40 and 70.35 levels are targets for this next move off 68.00. Note that 70.35 level is backed by intraday (4H) 200 ema resistance.
For in depth, check bio!! (Voila's Oil Trading - Substack)
wtiCurrently, WTI, considering its interaction with daily and weekly support levels and having a long candle, can target 72 first, then 74, and finally 78.
WTI - Oil waiting for stabilization of regional conditions?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the correction process continues and the resistance range is broken, you can first look for buying positions and then look for oil selling positions in the ceiling of the channel.
The Wall Street Journal analysis indicates that Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, intends to impose severe sanctions on Iran and restrict its oil sales. This move is part of an aggressive strategy to reduce Tehran’s support for its affiliated groups in the Middle East and to curb its nuclear program. During his first term, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and implemented a “maximum pressure” strategy. This analysis is from The Wall Street Journal.
Senior commodity analysts at TDS suggest that risks related to the Middle East are significantly underpriced. TDS analysts point out that the resolution of the current round of Middle East tensions could lead to reduced supply risks in the energy market.
In this regard, OPEC’s recent decision to delay additional oil supply has had only a limited impact on increasing supply risk and may not be sufficient in the medium term. According to analyses, if geopolitical stability regarding oil supply continues, there remains a likelihood of price declines.
TDS analysts also caution that threats such as the potential intensification of oil sanctions against Iran by President-elect Donald Trump could disrupt regional oil flows severely, as he might return to the “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran.
The Israeli Foreign Minister has stated that Israel is prepared to continue the Gaza war until its objectives are fully achieved. Progress has been made in ceasefire talks with Lebanon, though the main challenge will be implementing the agreements. The most critical issue for the region’s future is preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
An Israeli senior official mentioned, “If Hezbollah does not accept the ceasefire, stronger military and operational plans have been prepared, which could include expanding control over more areas in Lebanon.”
Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly considering merging its major oil companies, including Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil, to create the world’s second-largest oil producer after Aramco. This merger could provide greater control over global energy markets and support Russia’s economy amid wartime conditions. However, the proposal faces opposition from some Rosneft and Lukoil executives and challenges in securing financing for Lukoil shareholders. Kremlin officials and company executives have denied knowledge of such a plan, and details of the proposal remain unclear.
WTI Oil D1 | Falling to multi-swing-low supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 67.44 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 65.10 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 72.17 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Crude oil is displaying serious weaknessCrude oil is trapped in a descending triangle after a blow off top. might take some time to play out but target for crude oil based on the triangle is 42-40 crude oil.
WTI CRUDE OIL: confirmed bottom formation. Buy and target 77.50.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.429, MACD = -0.380, ADX = 24.190) but that bearish sentiment is the ideal buy entry as the price hit today the top of the S1 Zone and stayed supported, extending the sideways price action of the last 2 days. The 4H RSI is on HL, which has been the distinct characteristic of all prior 3 bottoms. Being on the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we expect a strong rebound to start even as soon as tomorrow, to test the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 77.50).
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2024-11-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Neutral. 3 legs down are done and bulls got a couple of 1h bars that closed above the 1h 20ema. We have formed a descending triangle which will break out tomorrow and I do think a break to the upside is much more likely than below but it could happen. Bulls want 70 and bears 67. Below 67 would be 66.72 but I doubt bears can get there.
comment : Market is trying to find a bottom. Can wait for a breakout and not trade this contracting range. Bears want 67 and then 66.72 and bulls 70 if they can break above the bear trend line. Not more magic to it.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: Bulls see the 3 clear legs down and now want a correction to at least the 50% retracement at 70.30. Today they finally printed multiple bars above the 1h 20ema and they are producing good buying pressure at 68. Bears will likely try 1-2 more times at 68 before they could give up and we see the upside breakout.
Invalidation is below 67.50.
bear case: I do think it’s tough to be a bear below 68. Downside could be limited to 66.72 and where would you put your stop? 69? Could work but I would not. Market has not traded below 67 for more than 5 days in September. Ultimately bears want to retest the October low at 65.74 and they have more arguments on their side than the bulls and yet I still don’t think the risk:reward selling below 68 is worth it.
Invalidation is above 69.3.
short term: Neutral until bulls break 69.3. No interest in selling below 68.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying 68 has been profitable and will likely continue to be.
WTI OIL forming multi-year bottom. $115 rally expected.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading below its 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) for the 4th straight month. The fact that it hasn't made a new Low yet, is a sign of strong long-term buying pressure here, hence a Support base.
Technically the price is forming the new multi-year bottom of this Cycle, similar to the below 1M MA200 bottom formation during November 2001 - January 2002. As you can see, those two decade long patterns are very similar in terms of price action, something that is also visible on their 1M RSI fractals.
The fact that a 1M Golden Cross was formed last May, makes the sequence even more bullish. The 2002 bottom initiated a rally, which in 1.5 year hit the Resistance Zone that was in place for more than 10 years. This time we have a Resistance Zone that goes back to 2011 and last time it rejected the price in March and June 2022 during the Ukraine - Russia war peak.
When the price breaks the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) again and closes above it, we may have an even stronger rally (fueled by inflationary forces of course, as the Fed continues their Rate-cut Cycle), as long as the 1M candles keep closing above the 1M MA50.
In any case, our Target for the next 12 - 18 months is $115.00 (just inside the Resistance Zone).
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