WTIUSD_4HWest Texas Oil ABC wave The beginning of the rising wave C Main support $72 Target 78 and 80 dollars It's not beautiful...!
WTI
⚡️Strifor || BRENT-18/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Sell-deal by oil is also relevant. Recent events in the OPEC arena did not have a positive impact on oil, and the decline continued. At the moment, the transaction has been moved to breakeven, and part of the profit has been fixed. However, on Thursday, there is a good opportunity to take a closer look at short-term short. The main trigger for this will be the continued formation of balance.
The target for the fall of such a short-term deal coincides with the medium-term deal at the level of 72.36 . It should be noted that the instrument continues to trade near the minimum of last year, which is very dangerous for buyers since today, most likely, the long-term trend will be directed exactly below this threshold of last year.
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⚡️Strifor || BRENT-11/01/2024Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: There is no particularly interesting situation in the medium term for oil yet, but we can say that there are still more signs of sell. After all, the instrument is in a downward global trend. The current accumulation after a small downward impulse is filled with purchases (long-orders), that is, there is a resource for moving down.
As a target, we can consider the support level of 72.36, which is the minimum of the previous year. Regarding the longer term, most likely we will see updates to this low in 2023, and then an attempt to recover above this level.
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WTI Oil H4 | Falling to Fibo confluence supportWTI oil (USOUSD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take profit target.
Entry: 71.224
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 78.6% retracement and the 61.8% projection levels
Stop Loss: 70.041
Why we like it:
There is a swing-low support that sits under the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level
Take Profit: 73.516
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
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WTIUSD_4HAnalysis of West Texas oil in the short and medium term The market is in the upward correction wave ABC, which is currently in wave B and can move towards $78 and $80 as wave C. The most important support is 72 dollars
WTI OIL Bullish squeeze. Strong rally incoming.WTI Oil (USOIL) is under a heavy technical squeeze as it has been trading for days within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line as Resistance) and the 1W MA200 (red trend-line as Support) and the width has now gotten extremely tight that a break-out is inevitable.
The very same squeeze was last spotted on July 03 2023, when the price marginally broke above the 1D MA50 but failed to close above it, only to rally over it two days later. This is what happened on Friday. With the 1D RSI also on Higher Lows (i.e. Bullish Divergence) as in July, we expect a bullish break-out that as with the July rally, will reach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Our Target is 82.50.
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Crude oil 1H Potential Inverse H&S ( Multi-timeframe analysis )On the 1H chart the Crude oil is forming a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders. What is more important about it is that it's happening after a retest of a bigger symmetrical triangle.
I am leaving the link toward the 4H oil analysis so that you can see the bigger picture:
US Dollar, US Bond Yields, USOIL, and Volatility are Set To RiseFor the few years there has been a close correlation between the US Dollar Index, US Treasury Yields, US Oil, and The Volatility Index, as of right now all are forming similar accumulation patterns, with the DXY, and Oil both sitting at the PCZ of a potential Bullish 5-0 at the 50% Retrace after breaking above its trend and the US10 Year yield sitting at the 61.8 retrace of a potential deeper Bullish 5-0 aligning with previous support/resistance. If these Bullish 5-0s play out, I would expect to see the DXY, Yields, and Oil make higher highs. Meanwhile, the VIX is sitting at the PCZ of a potential Bullish Deep Gartley on the Log scale chart and appears to be double bottoming locally with a fair bit of lower timeframe Bullish Divergence. If the former 3 assets go up in price, I would fully expect the VIX to follow and potentially hit levels above $50.00 on an extra note, the WTICOUSD is also sitting at the 200-week Simple Moving Average and is testing a long term trend line, so this gives Oil even more support at these levels.
WTI Crude oil - last update. Our overview: Jitter due to the Red Sea tension persist. CoT released Friday "net long positions" report, showing an increasing long positions in futures and decreasing in options by the "non commercial". This could suggest that the market could be close to an upward movement of the price. Waiting for market mover data and news. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current strategy: Moderately Long following wave3 of the minor trend(yellow). Our current position's risk profile @$72.58: delta +0.35, gamma +0.28 Hedging point: on breakout $72.30. or @area $74.00
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USOIL Trading Ideaased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Long setup for WTI oilYou can see clearly the up trend in oil.
I want to take entry from demand zone in chart
$WTI is still within a hard consolidationBLACKBULL:WTI is still within hard consolidation with two ways outcome. Look the video to get clues
WTI (Crude oil) 1H Double bottomThe Crude oil is forming a potential double bottom on a 1H chart
Zoom out the chart to see the Bigger picture.
The price has been moving in a general down trend channel. Recently the price broke out of it to the up side and now it's retesting the former down trend resistance. On it, it's forming a potential double bottom.
Additional confluences:
- Oversold RSI on the first bottom
- MACD Bullish crossing between the 2 bottoms
WTI Crude oil - last update Our overview: Red Sea tension on focus again. Divergence on hourly RSI. On breakout and close on hourly timeframe above $74.00 push the price straight to area $75.60/$76.00. On the other side, breakout of $72.80 could push again the price towards the bottom of the trading range. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current strategy: Neutral follow the market. Our current position's risk profile @$73.95: delta -0.03, gamma +0.24 Hedging point: not set
WTI H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 70.381 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level.
Stop loss is at 69.000 which is a level that sits under a swing-low support and the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level.
Take profit is at 73.270 which is a pullback resistance.
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WTI crude looks set to retrace before its next big leg higherWTI appears set tor a cheeky retracement. Volumes were falling during its leg higher from $68, and Wednesday closed with an exhaustion candle. Note the strong trading activity around $70 which indicates some bears were caught short and bulls initiated, which assumes short-covering helped fuel the rally and any retracement towards $70 could also be supported.
From here we’re looking for prices to revert to $70. But given the strong support around the June lows / $68 and false break of $70, the bigger picture view is for a bullish rally to develop following a retracement heading into the new year.
$80 seems feasible as an initial target, around the 200-day EMA. But as you’ll see in the next post, a bigger bullish reversal could be unfolding on the weekly chart.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Consolidation before a long term rally.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 48.178, MACD = -0.770, ADX = 19.024) as the price continues its fierce consolidation within the 1D MA50 (Resistance) and 1W MA200 (Support). In fact the 1D MA40 has been unbroken since October 23rd 2023 and when it breaks we expect a strong rise like the July 5th 2023 breakout. A strong consolidation similar to today's preceded the July 5th breakout.
Consequently, when the price does cross over it, we will go long and targwt the symmetrical Resistance (TP = 83.50), which has been the target twice before inside 2023.
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WTI Crude oil - last update Our overview: Negative EIA data, worse then the previous API release, push the price back to retest the support @$71.00. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current strategy: Moderately Long looking to follow the trend's wave with first target in area @$74.00(top of the actual trading range). Our current position's risk profile @$71.25: delta +0.25, gamma +0.23 Hedging point: on breakout $71.00
Understanding the Ripple Effects of U.S. Inventory Data on WTIThe American Petroleum Institute's latest report indicates a significant draw in U.S. oil inventories – a larger-than-expected decrease of 5.2 million barrels. But what does this mean for the market?
This drop in inventories typically signals a tightening supply, which, in theory, should push oil prices up. However, the data also showed an increase in gasoline and distillates inventories, suggesting a contrasting scenario of weakened demand, particularly in the U.S., the world's largest fuel consumer. This weakened demand is further evidenced by the ongoing impact of a severe winter storm, restricting travel and, consequently, fuel usage.
Technical analysis adds another layer to this narrative. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), a trend-following momentum indicator, shows sell signs, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains neutral. For market watchers, these indicators suggest potential shifts, with bears possibly entering at a point around $71.88 a barrel, pushing prices down to support levels of $69.42. Conversely, should the trend reverse, resistance might be met near $74.34 a barrel.
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USOIL is gettick stuck between $68 and $75Geopolitics in the Red Sea
Tensions in the Red Sea continue to rise, with Iran issuing yet another warning to the U.S. and its allies before expanding the war in the rich-oil-producing region. The warning follows the deployment of an Iranian warship in the Red Sea after the withdrawal of the USS Gerald R. Ford supercarrier from the waters earlier this month. In addition to that, it follows an increasing number of attacks from Houthi rebels on commercial and military ships sailing through this popular trade route, which caused major shipping companies to reroute their ships around the Cape of Good Hope, adding additional cost and time to the shipping. To make things worse, in the past few days, there were multiple reports of attacks from Somalian vessels on commercial ships in other parts of the Middle East. Furthermore, there were reports of over 100 attacks on the U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq since mid-October 2023. To sum up these developments, the situation in the region is deteriorating at a fast pace, and the potential eruption of a broader conflict continues to pose a significant threat to falling oil prices.
Technical analysis
Since the start of the year, the USOIL has been mainly trending sideways. The loss of bearish momentum is reflected in a low value of ADX and flattening of RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart; the flattening can also be observed on the weekly chart. As a result, we expect the USOIL to keep oscillating between $68 and $75 in the very short term. However, our price target of $65 per barrel stays unchanged.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI Crude oil - last update Our overview: Conflicting API data once again suggests caution. Big draw in crude counter with big build in gasoline and distillates. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 2.
Our current strategy: Still moderately Long looking to follow the trend's wave with first target @$74.00. Our current position's risk profile @$71.50: delta +0.20, gamma +0.21 Hedging point: on breakout $71.30
WTI CAN GO UP OR NOT?Now wti complete correction and can go up. BUT we expect for doublr zigzag correction. Waiting for new signal
