WTICOUSD: Ranging at the 200-Week SMAMy overall sentiment for Oil remains Bearish, though my midterm sentiment has been Bullish, as I think WTICOUSD needs to come back up to revisit some of the highs above 100 and face one last rejection from those levels before I will be fully convinced of oil making significantly lower lows.
For the time being, Oil has dumped below last week's range but is now sitting at the 200-week SMA and at the old 50% retrace which could be where this Bearish Shark starts to act as a Bullish 5-0 which would demand an attempt of a Higher High. I think that it could attempt to hold out here as the RSI is oversold and the MACD is printing potential Hidden Bullish Divergence. My first target for oil, if this level holds is up, is at around $80, then $100, then $114, then $140-155. I will be looking for signs of weakness to potentially take profits at all of those levels on the way up. In the meantime, I will look at Oil Related Stocks: BP, BPT, DVN, IMPP and a few more. The XLE and XOP Exchange Traded Funds may provide a more general way to get exposure.
WTI
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area of 70.81.Dear Colleagues, I believe that wave 5 is not fully formed yet, so the price will move down a bit more. Presumably to the support area of 70.81. After that I expect a strong corrective movement.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI - H4 - Area for Long!WTI is again in the value area and good for long positions.
Manage your risk and set some buy limit in different prices like 70.5 - 71.5 - 72.5
By manage your money wisely you can earn money with out worrying about losing your money.
If this area breaks and oil falls more don't panic!
Just keep your positions and buy in the lower levels
WTI Crude oilOur overview: Weakness and negativity prevail waiting the API report tonight. In the overnight session price steady at the support area @$73.00.
Technical signals: RSI negative and Stochastic negative.
Trends analysis: Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 5, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave B, minor(yellow): impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current strategy: Long, looking for a technical rebound. Our current position's risk profile @$73.23: delta 0.51, gamma 0.124 Hedging point: on breakout $72.90
Targets
$76.50
$75.00
$74.20
$73.00
$72.40
$71.80
WTI → Oil prices drop as the USD recovers, OPEC cutsThe outlook has turned bearish for the WTI. This is mainly because the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reside deep in negative territory and as the price is seen below its 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). This indicates that on the shorter and broader scales, the sellers are dominating.
Resistance Levels: $75.00, $76.15 (20-day SMA), $77.00
Support Levels: $72.80, $72.30, $71.00
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKOil prices saw a decline due to skepticism about OPEC+'s output cuts and concerns over growing supply overshadowing potential disruptions in the Middle East. U.S. crude settled 1.4% lower at $73.04 a barrel, and Brent dropped 1.1% to $78.03 a barrel. Despite announcements of output cuts, the lack of confidence in compliance and doubts about measurement methods have cast shadows on the effectiveness of these measures. Geopolitical events, such as attacks in the Red Sea, have revived concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, amplifying market anxieties. Additionally, fears of decreased demand and weak global manufacturing activity in November added pressure on prices. Technical indicators signaled bearish sentiment, indicating possible support levels at $66.78 and a potential rebound around $74.75.
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WTI Crude oil - last updateOur overview: Definitely OPEC+ policy disappoint the market. The Cot report released Friday, referring to data until the previous Tuesday, then few day before the OPEC+ meeting, highlighted that the commercial barely increased(1%) their net long positions in options, reverting the trend of the previous report. Furthermore, a news from 'businessinsider.com' say "Saudi Arabia could 'flush' the oil market with a flood of supply to regain control over prices in the face of rising US production. All this might push the market toward more weakness and negativity. In the overnight session price retraced getting closer to the support area @$73.00.
Technical signals: RSI negative and Stochastic negative in oversold area.
Trends analysis: Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 5, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave A, minor(yellow): corrective structure wave C.
Our current strategy: Strictly Neutral, following the market.
Our current position's risk profile @$73.38: delta 0.052, gamma 0.216 Hedging point: not set
Targets
$76.50
$75.00
$74.20
$73.00
$72.40
$71.80
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to 61.8%-78.6% Fibo lvls 74.24. Dear colleagues, I believe that the price will still renew the local minimum and reach the target of 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci levels 74.24.
Before that, the price may reach the swing area 77.29.
In case the price reaches the target immediately - the target is just a strong resistance.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI OIL Loosely supported by the RSI.WTI Oil (USOIL) got rejected yesterday just before it hit the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2-month Channel Down. It may have broken though below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as well but found support on the short-term Channel Up (dotted lines), which is essentially the bearish leg towards the Lower Highs of the Channel Down.
The early October bullish sequence traded within such a Channel Up as well and broke downwards only when the 4H RSI broke below its Higher Lows trend-line (October 22). Currently the RSI is supported by a similar Higher Lows trend-line. If broken, we will see and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) at 71.00. Until then we have the opportunity for a Channel Up bottom long towards 79.50 (4H MA200 potential contact).
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Consolidation & Complete Indecision 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is consolidating within a range on a daily since the beginning of November.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries, I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above 80.85 - the upper boundary of the range,
I will anticipate a growth to 82.50.
Bearish Scenario
In case of a breakout of 72.20 support, we may anticipate a bearish movement
to 87.35 level.
Wait for a breakout, that will give you a strong bullish or bearish confirmation.
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WTI Crude oil - last updateOur overview: Definitely OPEC+ policy doesn't convince the market. Massive selloff with more tha 500K contract traded, push the price to re-test the trend/neck line. Market could enter in latera trading range.
Technical signals: RSI negative, and Stochastic negative.
Trends analysis: Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 5, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave A, minor(yellow): corrective structure wave A.
Our current strategy: Neutral, following the market.
Our current position's risk profile @$75.70: delta 0.018, gamma 0.192
Hedging point: not set
Targets
$78.70
$77.80
$76.30
$74.00
$73.30
$72.50
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKOil prices surged during the latest OPEC+ meeting discussions, showcasing a 1.2% rise in U.S. crude futures at $78.77 per barrel and a 1.1% climb in Brent crude to $83.78 per barrel. The market buzzed with expectations of deeper output cuts, despite existing pledges from OPEC+ members to cut global oil output by about 5 million barrels per day. The delay in the meeting, prompted by African nations contesting their 2024 production targets, fueled speculations of potential additional cuts.
Amidst bearish U.S. crude inventory data and concerns over China's slowing economic growth affecting oil demand, the market maintained a positive outlook. Analysts hinted at the possibility of expanded supply reductions beyond existing voluntary measures, with the potential of an added 1.0 million barrel-a-day cut to stabilize oil prices. However, caution lingered about a "buy the rumor-sell the fact" scenario, and technical indicators pointed towards a trend reversal, indicating a potential retreat to $73.91 if the current bullish trend eases.
Overall, the oil market remained buoyant on prospects of increased output cuts by OPEC+ members, brushing aside bearish inventory reports and economic slowdown worries. The discussions continue to shape the market trajectory, showcasing a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the energy sector.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
WTI Crude oil - front expirationOur overview: Strong GDP in US, and hope on the OPEC+ meeting, offset the build in crude stockpile. A bigger then expected production cut would push for a Christmas rally. Today is mandatory stay neutral at least till is gonna be clear the OPEC+ policy.
Technical signals: RSI and Stochastic positive.
Trends analysis: We maintain an overall positive overview with a potential extension till $81.50/$82.00 if OPEC+ will confirm a robust production's cut. Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 4 with target @$80.00/$82.00, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave C, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current position @$78.78(in scale to a basic number of contracts :
current delta: 0.137
current gamma: 0.198
Targets
$81.00
$79.75
$78.70
$77.00
$76.40
$75.80
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Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area 79.77.Dear colleagues, I decided to update the idea. The price pushed off perfectly from the support at 74.23. At the moment I expect the upward movement to continue with the same target of the resistance area at 79.77.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!