A rebound in USOIL might not be done yetLast week, West Texas Intermediate crude oil reached our price target of $70 and slid as low as $68.83 per barrel. After this route, USOIL has slightly rebounded and currently trades near the $71.50 price tag. In the very short term, we acknowledge a potential for the price to continue higher. Indeed, this would be consistent with a natural occurrence of the price retracing toward its moving average, particularly the 20-day SMA. Yet, if the price breaks above this level and starts to consolidate there for a certain period, it might foreshadow even higher price tags; we will reassess our view if we get there. Beyond this short-term speculation about the prospects of further rise in USOIL, we stay bearish. Accordingly, our price target of $65 per barrel for the next year remains valid.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of CL1!. Red arrows highlight the decreasing price accompanied by falling volume (suggesting the selling pressure might be decreasing as well).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily graph of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI
WTI CRUDE OIL Strong buy signalWTI Crude Oil is rebounding after breaching marginally under the 0.786 Fibonacci.
That is the retracement level of the ranged price action long-term in the last 12 months.
Symmetrically, it is a strong rebound level as witnessed on the December 9th 2022 low.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 77.50 (projected contact with the MA50 (1d)).
2. 81.50 (0.5 yellow Fibonacci like the Jan 3rd and 23rd Highs).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has triple bottomed. Rarely you get a stronger buy signal than that.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
USOIL nears $70 per barrel The price of USOIL is edging toward $70 per barrel, which is our price target for 2024. However, it is becoming increasingly possible that we will see this price taken out even by the end of the current year. With that said, we want to raise another price target for the next year, valued at $65 per barrel.
Illustration 1.01
The monthly graph above shows the U.S. crude oil production. From the start of 2023 until September 2023, U.S. crude oil production rose by more than 770,000 barrels per day, which amounts to about 6.2% (since last year’s highs, the production is up more than 13.5%).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 depicts the monthly chart of the U.S. total rig count. Interestingly, since September 2023, the total rig count stopped declining.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
WTICOUSD: Ranging at the 200-Week SMAMy overall sentiment for Oil remains Bearish, though my midterm sentiment has been Bullish, as I think WTICOUSD needs to come back up to revisit some of the highs above 100 and face one last rejection from those levels before I will be fully convinced of oil making significantly lower lows.
For the time being, Oil has dumped below last week's range but is now sitting at the 200-week SMA and at the old 50% retrace which could be where this Bearish Shark starts to act as a Bullish 5-0 which would demand an attempt of a Higher High. I think that it could attempt to hold out here as the RSI is oversold and the MACD is printing potential Hidden Bullish Divergence. My first target for oil, if this level holds is up, is at around $80, then $100, then $114, then $140-155. I will be looking for signs of weakness to potentially take profits at all of those levels on the way up. In the meantime, I will look at Oil Related Stocks: BP, BPT, DVN, IMPP and a few more. The XLE and XOP Exchange Traded Funds may provide a more general way to get exposure.
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area of 70.81.Dear Colleagues, I believe that wave 5 is not fully formed yet, so the price will move down a bit more. Presumably to the support area of 70.81. After that I expect a strong corrective movement.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI - H4 - Area for Long!WTI is again in the value area and good for long positions.
Manage your risk and set some buy limit in different prices like 70.5 - 71.5 - 72.5
By manage your money wisely you can earn money with out worrying about losing your money.
If this area breaks and oil falls more don't panic!
Just keep your positions and buy in the lower levels
WTI Crude oilOur overview: Weakness and negativity prevail waiting the API report tonight. In the overnight session price steady at the support area @$73.00.
Technical signals: RSI negative and Stochastic negative.
Trends analysis: Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 5, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave B, minor(yellow): impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current strategy: Long, looking for a technical rebound. Our current position's risk profile @$73.23: delta 0.51, gamma 0.124 Hedging point: on breakout $72.90
Targets
$76.50
$75.00
$74.20
$73.00
$72.40
$71.80
WTI → Oil prices drop as the USD recovers, OPEC cutsThe outlook has turned bearish for the WTI. This is mainly because the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reside deep in negative territory and as the price is seen below its 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). This indicates that on the shorter and broader scales, the sellers are dominating.
Resistance Levels: $75.00, $76.15 (20-day SMA), $77.00
Support Levels: $72.80, $72.30, $71.00
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKOil prices saw a decline due to skepticism about OPEC+'s output cuts and concerns over growing supply overshadowing potential disruptions in the Middle East. U.S. crude settled 1.4% lower at $73.04 a barrel, and Brent dropped 1.1% to $78.03 a barrel. Despite announcements of output cuts, the lack of confidence in compliance and doubts about measurement methods have cast shadows on the effectiveness of these measures. Geopolitical events, such as attacks in the Red Sea, have revived concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, amplifying market anxieties. Additionally, fears of decreased demand and weak global manufacturing activity in November added pressure on prices. Technical indicators signaled bearish sentiment, indicating possible support levels at $66.78 and a potential rebound around $74.75.
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WTI Crude oil - last updateOur overview: Definitely OPEC+ policy disappoint the market. The Cot report released Friday, referring to data until the previous Tuesday, then few day before the OPEC+ meeting, highlighted that the commercial barely increased(1%) their net long positions in options, reverting the trend of the previous report. Furthermore, a news from 'businessinsider.com' say "Saudi Arabia could 'flush' the oil market with a flood of supply to regain control over prices in the face of rising US production. All this might push the market toward more weakness and negativity. In the overnight session price retraced getting closer to the support area @$73.00.
Technical signals: RSI negative and Stochastic negative in oversold area.
Trends analysis: Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 5, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave A, minor(yellow): corrective structure wave C.
Our current strategy: Strictly Neutral, following the market.
Our current position's risk profile @$73.38: delta 0.052, gamma 0.216 Hedging point: not set
Targets
$76.50
$75.00
$74.20
$73.00
$72.40
$71.80
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to 61.8%-78.6% Fibo lvls 74.24. Dear colleagues, I believe that the price will still renew the local minimum and reach the target of 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci levels 74.24.
Before that, the price may reach the swing area 77.29.
In case the price reaches the target immediately - the target is just a strong resistance.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!