CRUDE OIL (WTI): Consolidation & Complete Indecision 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is consolidating within a range on a daily since the beginning of November.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries, I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above 80.85 - the upper boundary of the range,
I will anticipate a growth to 82.50.
Bearish Scenario
In case of a breakout of 72.20 support, we may anticipate a bearish movement
to 87.35 level.
Wait for a breakout, that will give you a strong bullish or bearish confirmation.
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WTI
WTI Crude oil - last updateOur overview: Definitely OPEC+ policy doesn't convince the market. Massive selloff with more tha 500K contract traded, push the price to re-test the trend/neck line. Market could enter in latera trading range.
Technical signals: RSI negative, and Stochastic negative.
Trends analysis: Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 5, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave A, minor(yellow): corrective structure wave A.
Our current strategy: Neutral, following the market.
Our current position's risk profile @$75.70: delta 0.018, gamma 0.192
Hedging point: not set
Targets
$78.70
$77.80
$76.30
$74.00
$73.30
$72.50
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKOil prices surged during the latest OPEC+ meeting discussions, showcasing a 1.2% rise in U.S. crude futures at $78.77 per barrel and a 1.1% climb in Brent crude to $83.78 per barrel. The market buzzed with expectations of deeper output cuts, despite existing pledges from OPEC+ members to cut global oil output by about 5 million barrels per day. The delay in the meeting, prompted by African nations contesting their 2024 production targets, fueled speculations of potential additional cuts.
Amidst bearish U.S. crude inventory data and concerns over China's slowing economic growth affecting oil demand, the market maintained a positive outlook. Analysts hinted at the possibility of expanded supply reductions beyond existing voluntary measures, with the potential of an added 1.0 million barrel-a-day cut to stabilize oil prices. However, caution lingered about a "buy the rumor-sell the fact" scenario, and technical indicators pointed towards a trend reversal, indicating a potential retreat to $73.91 if the current bullish trend eases.
Overall, the oil market remained buoyant on prospects of increased output cuts by OPEC+ members, brushing aside bearish inventory reports and economic slowdown worries. The discussions continue to shape the market trajectory, showcasing a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the energy sector.
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WTI Crude oil - front expirationOur overview: Strong GDP in US, and hope on the OPEC+ meeting, offset the build in crude stockpile. A bigger then expected production cut would push for a Christmas rally. Today is mandatory stay neutral at least till is gonna be clear the OPEC+ policy.
Technical signals: RSI and Stochastic positive.
Trends analysis: We maintain an overall positive overview with a potential extension till $81.50/$82.00 if OPEC+ will confirm a robust production's cut. Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 4 with target @$80.00/$82.00, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave C, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current position @$78.78(in scale to a basic number of contracts :
current delta: 0.137
current gamma: 0.198
Targets
$81.00
$79.75
$78.70
$77.00
$76.40
$75.80
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Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area 79.77.Dear colleagues, I decided to update the idea. The price pushed off perfectly from the support at 74.23. At the moment I expect the upward movement to continue with the same target of the resistance area at 79.77.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI Crude oil top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
WTI Crude oil - last updateOverview: After several tentative, finally the trend line has been broken. Yesterday's CoT report (Commitment of Traders) highlighting that commercial and not commercial are reducing their net long positions in options. This could be a signal that area $73/$75) is an accumulation's area, at least for the current conjuncture, confirming our strategy. Eye on API crude oil stock tonight.
Technical signals: RSI and Stochastic in positive area.
Trends analysis: After the movement of the last days we redraw the technical analysis and the trends perspective. A clear head & shoulder closed with the today's breakout of the neck line, and potential extension till $81.50/$82.00. So this is the updated reading: primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 4 with target @$80.00/$82.00, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave C, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 2.
Strategy: Neutral delta, following a potential technical pull back till $75.70! Then positive looking for the upward trend extension till area $79/$80/$82. Stop: not set.
----->>Today's session corrections: @$76.97 from +0.69 to -0.03
Our current delta: @$76.46: -0.12
Crude oil market analysis
The OPEC+ meeting has been postponed, and the market has doubts about whether oil-producing countries can insist on extending production cuts. As well as the recent weak performance of U.S. economic data, the margins of supply and demand are weak, which is not conducive to higher oil prices. The OPEC+ meeting at the end of the month will be the highlight of the oil market, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. Before OPEC+ announces a new production policy, oil prices may maintain a volatile adjustment.
Current trading is around the 73.5-77.2 range
WTI Crude oil front expiration - last updateOverview: Weekness due to the OPEC+ meeting uncertainty.
Strategy: Positive Delta looking for a technical rebound and waiting for the CoT report which is gonna be released today. We hold moderate positive position. Our current delta: @$74.20: +0.20
Technical signals: RSI negative, Stochastic in oversold area.
Trends analysis: primary(purple): corrective structure wave A, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave C, minor(yellow): impulsive structure wave 2. On breakout of $73.90 the intermediate(green) trend will go back to wave B asymmetrical structure.
----->>Today's session corrections: @$74.80 from -0.36 to 0.30
WTI → Prices dip ahead of OPEC+ delayed meetingBLACKBULL:WTI is set to consolidate at around the $75.00-$80.00 range, after failing to decisively break the November 22 swing low of $73.85, which could have exacerbated a drop to $70.00 per barrel. That said, WTI’s success in registering a daily close above $75.00 could open the door to test the first resistance at the 20-day moving average (DMA) at $77.62 before buyers could lift prices to the 200-DMA $78.06. Further upside is expected once the latter is breached.
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
WTI Crude Oil Trading: An In-Depth Analysis of a Bearish TrendDear Esteemed TradingView Members,
I n the ever-evolving world of finance and trading, staying ahead of the curve is essential for success. If you're part of the exclusive audience of elite business professionals and investors, you understand the importance of precise market analysis and informed decision-making. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of WTI Crude Oil trading to provide you with valuable insights and a sophisticated outlook on the current market.
Decoding the WTI Crude Oil Market
M ACD Indicator Insights: The WTI Crude Oil market has witnessed a bearish trend since September 28, 2023, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) at the bottom of the chart. While MACD continues to display bearish signals, it's vital to remember that this is a lagging indicator, reflecting historical trends. As sophisticated investors, we must recognize that historical behavior does not guarantee future outcomes. The world and its dynamics are in a constant state of flux, with each trading day being a unique entity shaped by ever-evolving global events.
D eep Neural Analytics Perspective: Here's where our analysis takes an intriguing turn. Deep Neural Analytics suggests the possibility of WTI Crude Oil being oversold. Historically, when MACD levels have reached this point, a bullish pull-up often follows. However, it's important to approach this insight cautiously. Global news and unforeseen developments can significantly impact oil markets. While historic trends provide valuable guidance, they are not absolute predictors of future behavior.
T he Support Zone: According to volume metrics, the current support zone (indicated by the upper blue rectangle) ranging from $77 to $84 also serves as a demand zone. If market sentiment remains positive and bearish news doesn't disrupt the status quo, this zone could transition into a consolidation platform. A consolidation zone acts as a springboard for investors to accumulate positions and potentially drive the price to the next resistance zone, which might fall within the range of $94 to $100 (as depicted by the purple rectangle).
A lternative Scenarios: If buyers fail to sustain the current support zone, or if external factors challenge investor sentiment, the next potential demand zone lies between $63.5 and $71 (as illustrated by the bottom blue rectangle). Should this scenario unfold, it would necessitate a reassessment to determine its suitability for a possible reversal. Theoretically, if oil doesn't reverse from the current demand zone, it could find its turning point in the alternate demand zone. These scenarios, however, are long-term considerations, while the current situation sees oil consistently falling below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) like EMA 20/50/100/200.
U nderstanding Sustainability: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicators play a pivotal role in comprehending the sustainability of trends. Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) applied to EMAs and oil prices suggest that the bearish trend may persist until February 2024 or potentially longer. Despite MACD indicating that oil is oversold, GBMs on EMAs advise against forecasting an immediate bullish trend. This underscores the importance of not relying solely on one indicator.
The Road Ahead
I n the realm of WTI Crude Oil trading, informed decision-making is key. The markets are driven by a complex interplay of variables, making the role of a sophisticated investor all the more crucial. Without bullish news and indicators, WTI Crude Oil continues to display bearish tendencies and may maintain this trajectory for the foreseeable future.
Remember, this analysis serves as a guide, not an investment recommendation. Conduct thorough research, safeguard your funds, and take full responsibility for your investment choices. The dynamic nature of financial markets requires vigilance, and with the right insights, you can navigate the WTI Crude Oil landscape with confidence and wisdom.
Kind regards,
Ely
WTI H4 | Rising into resistanceWTI oil (USOUSD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower towards our take profit target.
Entry: 78.506
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Stop Loss: 81.725
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 72.437
Why we like it:
There is a swing-low support level
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WTI CRUDE OIL High probability buy above the MA50 (4h).WTI Oil is trading inside a Channel Down since the September 27th High.
The price is now forming the Right Shoulder of a minor Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that bottomed on the Lower Lows trend line of the Channel Down.
This is formation technically aims at pricing the new Lower High at the top of the Channel Down.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy the moment a (4h) candle gets closed over the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 80.50 (which is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, as the previous Lower High was priced. Also it's the MA200 4h and top of the Channel Down).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is forming the exact same pattern as the previous bottom from October 6th to 12th. Once it re-crossed over its MA line, the spike that priced the top started.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
WTI OIL Excellent buy opportunity.WTI OIL (USOIL) has been trading within a long-term Rectangle since the August 30 High. This is most accurately displayed by the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels where we can see that the majority of the price action has been within the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci range. We call that the "High Volatility Zone". On November 16 the price almost hit the bottom of that Zone and since the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is just below and has been the long-term Support (hasn't closed a 1D candle below it since January 29 2021!), we consider the commodity to have significant upside potential.
On top of that, the 1D RSI has Double Bottomed on the oversold barrier of 30.00 (where it always gave strong rallies on May 04 2023, March 17 2023, December 09 2022 and September 26 2022) while the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross (with all such crosses below the 0.00 mark being a buy signal).
We are bullish at least for the short-term, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 80.50, expecting also a potential contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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Crude oil looks set to bounce ahead of OPECWith oil prices having fallen around -25% from the September high, a correction higher may be due.
And as prices failed to hold beneath $70, Wednesday's bullish hammer (which is also a higher low) has caught out eye). The hammer was coupled with above-average volume to suggest demand around $75, and the initial break below $70 was seen on strong negative delta (more sellers than buyers) which means the subsequent move higher likely forced them to cover and reconsider their direction.
A move towards $75 could help improve the reward to risk ration for an anticipate move to $80, a break above which brings $82 into focus just beneath the January and April highs.
WTI CRUDE OIL Buy signal under the 4hour MA50WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is trading inside a Channel Down for almost 2 months.
The recent Lower Low on its bottom is so far replicating the previous one on October 6th.
Today's sudden decline made a symmetric pull-back as on October 12th.
This is the final short term buy opportunity before the price approaches the top of the Channel and the 4hour MA200.
A crossing over the 4hour MA50 will confirm the buy.
Target 79.50, which is under Resistance A, like the Lower High of October 20th.
Previous chart:
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WTI Crude oil front expiration - last updateOverview:
Another massive build on API crude oil stocks,
conflicting with a big distillate inventory draw,
and next Sunday OPEC+ meeting are the main
factors driving the market to a stall
awaiting the official EIA data scheduled today.
Strategy:
Neutral following the market.
Our current position's Delta: -0.09 barely negative
Last rebalance: at $77.87 from +0.19.
Technical signals:
RSI still in neutral area.
Trends analysis:
primary(purple): corrective structure wave A
intermediate(green): corrective structure wave B
minor(yellow): corrective structure wave B
Bullish targets:
first@ $79.00
second@ $79.80/$80.00
Mandatory rebalance level
/Stop loss: as we are neutral our system
doesn't set any level.
Bearish targets:
first@ $76.00/$75.40
second@ $74.70/ $73.90
WTIUSD short position analysisIn weekly TF we have a CHoCH to the up.
In daily TF we're in the pull back of the weekly TF, so we're in a down trend.
In 4H TF we had a BOS of previous low and now we're in a pull back to the up.
I think these two areas have the most potential to go short.
We can set sell limit orders but for more confirmation we can wait for a CHoCH in lower TF(Like 5min TF) and then dive into it ;)
Let see what will happen...
Good luck.