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Crude Oil - Elliott Wave CountCrude Oil - Elliott Wave Count Based on the current market trends, it appears that there is a bearish sentiment prevailing. As a result, it is likely that we may witness a decline in the value of the asset to 85 or below. It is important to note that we have set our stop loss at today's high, which means that if the price breaks above this level, we will exit the market. Please note that this information is for educational purposes only, and it is crucial to trade with caution. MCX:CRUDEOIL1! NYMEX:CL1! TVC:USOIL CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE MCX:CRUDEOILM1! EASYMARKETS:OILUSD
TVC:USOILShort
by Treda_pro
WTI CRUDE OIL: Short term sell signal unless this Fib breaks.WTI Crude Oil is on a neutral technical outlook on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 54.002, MACD = 0.110, ADX = 20.935), naturally so as it is ranged between the 1D MA50 and 0.618 Fibonacci level for the past four days. The MACD now formed a Bullish Cross, which gives an edge to buying but only if the 0.618 Fibonacci level breaks. A similar fractal in May-June offered excellent sideways opportunities until the 0.618 Fib broke. Consequently, we are selling (TP = 83.20) for as long as the price is under the 0.618 Fib (and buying the bounces) but will buy if the price crosses over it (TP = 95.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
Top 10 books in tradingAs a trader now of over 23 years, I have read a few hundred trading books in that time. It is always really interesting to have other people's perspective, strategies, hint, tips and tools. However, the main issue is not knowing if you are likely to get value from the book you purchase as it is also very subjective. You either have issues such as the book is too basic, or the other end of the scale, it's too advanced. During the 20 plus years, I found a number of great books that helped me - but also ones I have shared with others over the years. Regardless of your level of knowledge how do you know what works or would work for you or your style of trading? I put this list together in no real order, but I'll try to summarise each with a little about what I liked or what you can take away. ============================================================== "The Wall Street Jungle" Written by Richard Ney, first published in 1970. In this book, Ney provides readers with an insider's perspective on the world of finance and investment. He delves into the complexities and pitfalls of Wall Street, offering a critical examination of the stock market and the investment industry. Ney, a former Wall Street insider himself, reveals the often deceptive practices and psychological games played by brokers and financial institutions. He discusses the dangers of following investment advice blindly and emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making when it comes to managing one's finances. Throughout the book, Ney uses real-life examples and anecdotes to illustrate the challenges and temptations that investors face. He also explores the psychological aspects of investing, discussing how emotions can influence financial decisions and lead to costly mistakes. What I like about this is the emphasis put on the market makers, as a trader who uses Wyckoff Techniques, it made more sense when identifying with Composite Man theory. "Trading in the Zone" By Mark Douglas that focuses on the psychology of trading and investing. Published in 2000, the book offers valuable insights into the mental aspects of successful trading. Douglas emphasizes the idea that trading is not just about mastering technical analysis or market fundamentals but also about mastering one's own emotions and mindset. This book was one of the best in terms of psychology, every trader has a different appetite for risk and even profits, this is a huge factor in trading especially early on. If you struggle with psychology of trading or the emotions, I would 100% recommend this one. "The Wealth of Nations" Written by the Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith, first published in 1776. This influential work is considered one of the foundational texts in the field of economics and is often regarded as the birth of modern economics. In the book Smith explores the principles of a free-market capitalist system and the mechanisms that drive economic prosperity. He famously introduces the concept of the "invisible hand," which suggests that individuals pursuing their self-interest in a competitive market inadvertently contribute to the greater good of society. For me, the rules of economics have not changed much since the creation of this book. appreciating moves such as DXY up = Gold down, is simple economics. The main take away is again around Wyckoff theory for me and the fact the "invisible hand" is exactly why and how some fail and some profit. "The Go-Giver" Although not technically a trading book, it's one of the best little business/life stories. self-help book co-authored by Bob Burg and John David Mann. Published in 2007, it presents a unique and compelling philosophy on success and achieving one's goals. The book revolves around the story of a young, ambitious professional named Joe who is seeking success in his career. Through a series of encounters with a mentor named Pindar, Joe learns the "Five Laws of Stratospheric Success." These laws, which are principles of giving, value, influence, authenticity, and receptivity, guide him on a transformative journey toward becoming a true "go-giver." The way I saw this from a trading perspective is pretty much, the value given by stocks or companies is something Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham investment theory was all about. Although a different type of value - you can understand why instruments such as gold or oil have a place, a value and this can be deemed as expensive or fair at any given point. These waves are what really moves the market. "The Zurich Axioms" A book written by Max Gunther, originally published in 1985. This book offers a set of investment and risk management principles derived from the wisdom and practices of Swiss bankers in Zurich. The Zurich Axioms provide a unique and unconventional approach to investing and wealth management. The book presents a series of investment "axioms," or guidelines, that challenge conventional wisdom in the world of finance. These axioms emphasize risk management, flexibility, and the willingness to take calculated risks. They encourage investors to think independently and avoid the herd mentality often associated with financial markets. For me it's more about investing and less about trading. But the deep down message is all to do with ultimately wealth preservation, I have been in the wealth management and investment space and found it interesting that the more an investor has, the less about making money it becomes and more about safe guarding that capital it gets. "Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side" Written by Howard Marks, a renowned investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. Published in 2018, the book delves into the critical concept of market cycles and provides insights on how investors can navigate them to enhance their investment strategies. In the book, Marks emphasizes the cyclical nature of financial markets and discusses the inevitability of market fluctuations. He explores the factors and indicators that drive market cycles, such as economic data, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Marks' central thesis is that investors can improve their chances of success by understanding where they are in the market cycle and adjusting their investment decisions accordingly. I had a spooky delve into market cycles, I have a good friend who told me he did not trade price, instead time. This was something I could not really figure out, but was so fascinating that the markets can work in cycles. It was interesting that Larry Williams also discussed a similar thing with the Orange Juice market's in one of his books. "How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities" And here is Larry Williams' book. provides an insider's perspective on his successful journey as a commodities trader. In this book, Williams shares his personal experiences, strategies, and insights into the world of commodity trading. He outlines the specific techniques and tactics he used to achieve remarkable profits in a single year. While the book may not offer a guaranteed formula for success, it offers valuable lessons on risk management, market analysis, and the psychology of trading. It serves as both an inspiration for aspiring traders and a guide for those looking to improve their trading skills in the volatile world of commodities. For me, the COT intel is invaluable. When you learn what drives markets really, COT is such a useful tool to have at your disposal. "Nature's Law: The Secret of the Universe" A groundbreaking book by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the creator of the Elliott Wave Theory. Published in the early 20th century, this influential work introduced a novel perspective on market analysis and price prediction. Elliott's theory posits that financial markets and other natural phenomena follow a repetitive, fractal pattern that can be analyzed through wave patterns. He outlines the concept of impulsive and corrective waves and demonstrates how these waves form trends in various financial markets. The book delves into the idea that the market's movements are not entirely random but instead exhibit an underlying order, governed by these wave patterns. Elliott's ideas have had a profound impact on technical analysis and have been adopted by traders and analysts worldwide. "Nature's Law" serves as the foundation of the Elliott Wave Theory, offering valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding and predicting financial markets based on natural patterns and mathematical principles. If you want to learn about Elliott Waves - here it is from the horse's mouth as they say. "Master the art of Trading" By Lewis Daniels - Master the Art of Trading trader, offers a quick, easy, and comprehensive roadmap to trading. It explores the grand theories and behavioural economics underpinning the markets, from Elliot Wave Theory to Composite Man. It unpicks visual data, such as candlestick graphs and trend lines. It equips readers with the correct tools to make sense of the data and to make better trades. And it helps readers uncover their innate strengths, realise their propensity for risk, and discover what sort of trader they are - on order to optimise their behaviour to make them as effective as possible. This book puts together all of the core trading requirements from the basic trendline through to psychology and technical techniques. "The Intelligent Investor" a classic and highly influential book on the subject of value investing, written by Benjamin Graham and first published in 1949. Graham, a renowned economist and investor, is often considered the "father of value investing." The book offers a comprehensive guide to the principles and strategies of sound, long-term investing. Graham's central concept is the distinction between two types of investors: the defensive, "intelligent" investor and the speculative investor. He emphasizes the importance of conducting in-depth analysis and due diligence to make informed investment decisions, rather than engaging in market speculation. I don't think any list of trading books is complete without this one! It's the Warren Buffer Holy Grail. For me, it's about risk management, finding value - especially with investments like value stocks. Using compounding interest and the factor of time to your advantage. ===================================================================== I would be keen to get comments and other book recommendations from the trading community here on Tradingview.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
Crude oil - Elliott Wave CountCrude oil - Elliott Wave Count Certainly, here is the rewritten text: Based on market analysis, it appears that crude oil is currently undergoing a triangle correction of wave B, with a projected target range of $89.5. Once the wave B correction is complete, wave C is expected to decline all the way to the $75 range. In light of this, we recommend refraining from taking long positions in a bearish market. Instead, it would be prudent to wait for a reversal and take a short position. Please note that this information is for educational purposes only, and it is crucial to trade with caution. TVC:USOIL FX:USOILSPOT BLACKBULL:USOIL.F MCX:CRUDEOIL1! NYMEX:CL1! TVC:USOIL CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by Treda_pro
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOUSD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially reverse from here to bounce higher towards our take profit target. Entry: 88.108 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level Stop Loss: 86.519 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 91.890 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
TradePlus-Fx|BRENT: now on sell💬 Description: Oil remains one of the most interesting instruments at the moment, which is due to the aggravated geopolitical background. Metals are the same story. In our previous trading idea for oil, we assumed entering a long position with the goal of reaching level 91 . This happened, but the main idea and the more promising one - sell. At the moment, a good context has been formed to enter the short, as we need. One can consider a dynamic set of positions, since a false breakout upward cannot be ruled out, after which the price will fall even more rapidly. The target of the trade is located at the gap formation level, that is, at level 85 . 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 🇪🇺Trade Balance 🇺🇸NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 🇺🇸Federal Budget Balance ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
TVC:UKOILShort
by TradePlus-Fx
13
WTI H4 | Bullish trend to extend further?WTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 86.386 which is a pullback support that aligns under the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 84.478 which is a level that sits under an overlap support and aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 89.600 which is a pullback resistance that sits under the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
1
MCO: Options Strategy to Capture Crude Oil VolatilityNYMEX: Options on Micro WTI Crude Oil ( NYSE:MCO ), Underlying Futures: NYMEX:MCL1! Riding on last week’s story on TradingView, “Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?” let’s explore option strategy to hedge event risk. Last week, we’ve revisited the event driven strategy and how it could be leveraged to hedge event risk: • I observe that gold prices usually go up in the aftermath of a crisis, as evidenced by its 24% surge in six months after the start of the Covid pandemic. • If a crisis results in economic recession, crude oil prices would go down. Proof: WTI dropped nearly 80% one month after Covid, as lockdowns destroyed oil demand. • In the event of a war, oil prices shot up due to its strategic importance. Example: Crude was up 31% one month after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. • What’s in store to hedge event risk? We explored long futures strategies on COMEX Gold and NYMEX WTI. For my original idea on event driven strategies, please read this: Are these strategies working? We can review them in real time. Micro Gold goes first: • On October 6th, the last trade day before event date (denoted as T0), Gold Futures (T0) = $1,845 per troy ounce for the leading December contract MGCZ3. • Price changes by time: at (T+1): $1,864.3, +1.0%; at (T+7): $1,941.5, +5.2% • Hypothetically, if we opened a long futures position at T0 price and hold it till now, our futures account will gain by $965 (= (1941.5-1845) * 10). • If we take the $780 initial margin deposit as cost base, our theoretical return would be +23.7% (=965/780-1), excluding transactions fees. For WTI crude oil futures: • Futures (T0) = $83.18 per barrel for December contract (CLZ3). • Price changes by time: at (T+1): $84.60, +1.7%; at (T+7): $86.35, +3.8% • Hypothetically, a long futures position would gain by $3,170 (= (86.35-83.18) * 1000). • The theoretical return would be +51.2% (=3170/6186-1), excluding commissions. • We could replicate this strategy using Micro WTI futures ( CSE:MCL ), which is 1/10 of the standard NYSE:CL contract and requires 1/10 of initial margin. Today, I would like to explore options strategy on crude oil, and hope to achieve better results in a cost-effective way. As we know, neither Israel nor Palestine is a major oil producer. So far, global oil supply has not been interrupted by this military conflict. Rising oil price is due to the “price shock” arising from a geopolitical event. However, if the conflict intensifies, it could drag other oil producing nations from the region into conflict. At wartime, there is a real risk of oil field sabotage or blockage of major shipping routines. Either one could result in an oil supply shortage. If you can’t buy a bar of gold, you could choose alternative investment options like bonds or bitcoin. But if we don’t have oil, all other energy sources combined are not sufficient to fill the gap. We would not be able to refill the gas tank. Delivery trucks could not ship meat and vegetables to local grocery stores. There will be a real crisis. Options Strategy with Micro WTI Crude Oil Options In its first week, the conflict has already resulted in thousands of casualties. With the ground fighting in Gaza due to begin any time, the conflict could quickly get out of control in the coming days and weeks. For a comparison: Last year, WTI went up 5.7% one week after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. By the end of the first month, crude oil was up 31%. This time, WTI went up 3.8% in Week 1. Where will oil price be at T+1M? With a “Risk On” scenario like last year, it could go up another 25%, reaching $105 or higher. However, a long-only futures strategy runs the risk of oil price going down. In this rapidly evolving event, senior US officials are in the Middle East negotiating for a cease fire. If peace is achieved, it is good for the world. How do we hedge a long-futures position in a “risk-off” scenario? We could consider a Call Strategy with the Options Contract ( NYSE:MCO ) on Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( CSE:MCL ). In the following example, I would illustrate the theoretical payoffs between a long futures position on MCL and an out-of-the-money (OTM) Call with MCO. Market prices and assumptions: • On October 13th, settlement price for MCLZ3 was $86.35/barrel. • For a simplified example, assume there are two possible outcomes in one month. Risk-On: WTI goes up 20% to $103.62. Risk-Off: WTI goes down 20% to $69.08. Futures Trade: • Buy MCLZ3 at T0 settlement. Upfront investment is the $640 initial margin. • Risk-On: Position gains $1,727 (= (103.62-86.35) * 100). Return: +270% (=1727/640). • Risk-Off: Position lost $1,727 (= (69.08-86.35) * 100). Return: -270% (=-1727/640). • In actual trades, when the account balance drops below 22% of the initial margin to $140.8, the trader will be required to bring the balance back up to $640. Options Trade: • Buy a $95 call on MCLZ3 on T0 at $2.02 premium. Total premium is $202, as each contract is 100 barrels of crude oil. • Risk-On: Call strike will be $8.62 in-the-money (ITM, =103.62-95). At today’s market, the 77.75-strike at futures price $86.35 is $8.60 ITM. It is quoted $9.71. Using this as an approximation, we assume our options value to go up from $2.02 to $9.71. • Position would gain $769 (= (9.71-2.02) * 100). Return: +381% (=769/202). • Risk-Off: Call strike will be $25.92 OTM (=95-69.08). Today, the 112.25-strike is 25.9 OTC at current market price. It is quoted $0.58. If we sell the options at the open market, we will realize a loss of $144 (= (0.58-2.02) * 100). Return: -71% (=-144/202). Unlike the physically deliverable standardized WTI contracts, Micro WTI futures ( CSE:MCL ) and options ( NYSE:MCO ) are both financially settled. To exit the position, the trader will enter a trade at the opposite direction. In our examples, a Short December futures MCLZ3 will offset the Long position. For the options trade, selling the same call options will net out the existing position. What are the advantages of an options strategy vs. a futures trade? Firstly, the upfront investment could be much lower with an OTM call. In our example, it is $202, compared to $640 for futures margin. Secondly, a trader could design more complex trading strategies using options. There are multiple calls and puts to serve as building blocks, compared to only one futures contract for each expiration. Thirdly, options payoff is nonlinear. When you are on the right side of the market, the return grows exponentially larger as the call strike gets deeper in-the-money. In our illustration, the same price increase results in 380% gain for options, vs. 270% for futures. Finally, buying a futures contract could incur unlimited losses. If the market goes against you, you could lose more than the initial margin as you may be required to put in more funds to meet margin call. On the other hand, the maximum loss from buying a call or put is capped to the upfront premium. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1