WTI: Will oil return to the upward trajectory?!WTI oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable reward for risk will be provided to us. A valid breakdown of the drawn downtrend line and preservation of the channel will pave the way for oil to reach the drawn ranges.
Under the pressure of imminent sanctions planned by the Trump administration and the debts Iran now owes to China, the country has begun offloading crude oil that had been stored in Chinese warehouses for years. This oil, shipped to China between 2018 and 2019 but not officially declared in Chinese customs records, was kept in isolated, pre-designated storage facilities. With storage costs reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, Iran is now obligated to cover these expenses. So far, 5.4 million barrels of oil have been removed from a Chinese port, transported by a total of four tankers.
According to a Bloomberg report, OPEC+ is likely to maintain its current supply policy in its meeting next week. This decision contradicts the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has urged oil producers to increase output to lower prices and exert more economic pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Under the current plan, oil supply restrictions will remain in place for this quarter and will gradually ease starting in April.
Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order to initiate the development of a “next-generation” missile defense system in the United States. This system, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome, is designed to protect the U.S. from ballistic missile attacks, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and other modern aerial threats.
According to the released information, the executive order aims to establish an advanced space-based missile defense system capable of detecting and neutralizing missiles launched toward the U.S. Conceptually, this resembles Israel’s Iron Dome, which has been used for years to intercept and destroy rockets fired from Gaza. The U.S.government has already invested billions of dollars in developing Israel’s Iron Dome, and the American military possesses its own missile defense systems.
The order describes missile attacks as a “catastrophic threat,” but no details have been provided regarding the project’s costs or timeline. Developing a comprehensive missile defense system for a country as geographically vast as the U.S. is a highly complex and costly endeavor. Additionally, the emergence of next-generation missile threats, such as hypersonic missiles that travel at extremely high speeds, presents significant technical challenges. This indicates that the project will require substantial investment and time for completion.
WTI
Trump's pressure on OPEC prompted the drop in USOIL prices.
President Trump's steadfast dedication to lowering oil prices is driving the decline in WTI prices. During the WEF in Davos, Switzerland, he made it clear that he would demand Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce the price of crude oil. He boldly stated that lower oil prices could potentially lead to an end to the war in Ukraine. According to CSIS, Trump's call for reduced oil prices is a positive move for consumers and businesses but it is the one that the US oil industry will regard with caution.
Failing to rise above EMA21, USOIL shows consolidation near 73.40. The price remains within the descending channel, and both EMAs have widened apart, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish momentum. If USOIL fails to breach EMA21, the price may fall further to the support at 71.50, where the channel’s lower bound coincides. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA21 and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 74.50
CRUDE OIL Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL made a massive
10% bearish correction but
Then it hit a horizontal support
Of 72.89$ and a bullish rebound
Is already happening so we
Are bullish biased and we will
Be expecting a further move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
USOIL Maintains a Persistent Bearish BiasThe WTI barrel has experienced a loss of over 8% since mid-January, mainly because the peace agreement between Israel and Palestine has come into effect without issues, and Trump’s ongoing comments about increased production in the United States have contributed to the bearish sentiment. Both factors have led the market to expect growing supply and weak demand prospects, which has inevitably sustained bearish pressure on crude oil prices.
Lack of Clear Trend:
Recent movements have caused the barrel to accumulate a prolonged bearish correction, casting doubt on the bullish trendline established since December 2024. Now, the price faces a key support zone, which could serve as a decision point for a potential sustained bearish trend.
ADX:
The ADX line has consistently oscillated above the neutral level of 20. However, recent movements show a current downward slope, indicating a lack of clear trend in the market. If the ADX line continues to decline, the current bearish movement may struggle to break through the existing support zone.
MACD:
Both MACD lines are consistently declining, and the histogram remains below the neutral line at 0. This indicates that bearish pressure continues to dominate in the short term. However, recent histogram readings have not reached progressively lower levels, suggesting indecision in the current bearish movement, which could allow for short-term upward corrections.
Key Levels:
$72: The current support level on the chart. Oscillations below this level could further increase bearish pressure and pave the way for a more defined downward trend.
$78: The last high reached by the barrel of crude oil. Bullish oscillations that revisit this level could revive the short-term upward trend that was forming since December.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
WTI - Daily TradingRange ZoneBLACKBULL:WTI is oscillating between two key trend lines, and after hunting liquidity under the last bullish leg, another upward move is possible. This setup presents buy opportunities on lower time frames, and I’ll update this idea accordingly.
Additionally, oil remains within a broader trading range, reacting precisely to the mid-zone, which has previously acted as dynamic support. This level could push prices higher in the short term.
📈 Watch for potential bullish setups and follow for timely updates!
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Does WTI Oil have enough energy to travel back up?After an unsuccessful breakout in mid-January, MARKETSCOM:OIL made its move back down. That said, it's currently finding support near the 200-day EMA. On one hand, it may seem that this is the place for a potential rebound, however, the bulls should not get their hopes up, because there some indication for a possible drift further south. Take a look at the video idea.
TVC:USOIL
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Behind the Curtain: Economic Forces Fueling Crude Oil Futures1. Introduction
Crude Oil Futures (CL), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of global energy markets. Representing a vital benchmark for the energy sector, these futures reflect shifts in supply, demand, and macroeconomic sentiment. As both a speculative and hedging instrument, CL Futures are closely tied to economic forces shaping the global economy.
In this article, we leverage machine learning insights from a Random Forest Regressor to uncover the top economic indicators influencing Crude Oil Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By identifying these drivers, traders can gain a data-driven perspective to navigate the dynamic crude oil market effectively.
2. Understanding Crude Oil Futures
o Contract Specifications:
Standard Contract: Represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil.
Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $10 per tick per contract.
Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, ensuring global access and liquidity.
o Micro Crude Oil Contracts (MCL):
Contract Size: Represents 100 barrels of crude oil, 1/10th the size of the standard CL contract.
Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $1 per tick per contract.
Purpose: Offers smaller-scale traders’ access to the crude oil market with lower capital requirements, making it ideal for those looking to hedge or test strategies.
o Margins:
Standard CL Contract Margin: Approximately $6,000 per contract (subject to market volatility).
Micro MCL Contract Margin: Approximately $600 per contract.
The combination of high liquidity, leverage, and the flexibility offered by Micro Crude Oil contracts makes CL Futures a versatile choice for a broad range of participants, from institutional investors to retail traders exploring smaller-scale strategies.
3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators
Machine learning insights reveal that the following daily indicators play a crucial role in shaping Crude Oil Futures' movements:
U.S. Trade Balance: Measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit signals improved economic health and potential upward pressure on oil demand, while a widening deficit may indicate weakened economic sentiment, weighing on crude prices.
Unemployment Rate: Reflects labor market conditions and overall economic health. A declining unemployment rate often correlates with increased energy consumption due to stronger economic activity, boosting crude oil prices.
Building Permits: Tracks new residential construction permits issued. Rising permits reflect economic confidence and can signal increased energy demand for construction activity, providing upward momentum for crude prices.
4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators
Weekly indicators provide medium-term insights into crude oil market dynamics. The top drivers include:
Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): Reflects the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads signal economic uncertainty, potentially reducing crude oil demand. Narrowing spreads suggest stability, supporting higher crude prices.
U.S. Trade Balance (again): At the weekly level, trade balance trends highlight the interplay between global trade and crude oil demand, influencing market sentiment over several days.
Housing Price Index: Indicates trends in real estate values, reflecting consumer confidence and economic stability. Rising housing prices often signal strong economic conditions, indirectly bolstering crude oil demand.
5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators
Monthly indicators provide a long-term perspective on Crude Oil Futures trends, highlighting macroeconomic forces at play. The top monthly drivers are:
Natural Gas Prices: As a competing energy source, fluctuations in natural gas prices can impact crude oil demand. Rising natural gas prices often lead to increased crude consumption, while declining prices may pressure oil demand downward.
U.S. Trade Balance (again): Over a monthly timeframe, the trade balance reflects sustained shifts in international trade dynamics. Persistent trade deficits may signal weaker global economic activity, affecting crude oil prices negatively, whereas trade surpluses may support demand.
Net Exports: A critical measure of a country’s export-import balance, net exports reveal global demand for domestic products, including crude oil. Surpluses suggest robust international demand, often leading to upward pressure on oil prices, while deficits indicate weaker sentiment.
6. Applications for Different Trading Styles
Economic indicators provide actionable insights tailored to specific trading styles:
Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators such as U.S. Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and Building Permits to anticipate intraday volatility. For example, an unexpected improvement in building permits might signal stronger economic activity, potentially boosting crude oil prices intraday.
Swing Traders: Weekly indicators like Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y) and Housing Price Index offer insights into intermediate trends. For instance, narrowing bond spreads often reflect economic stability, aligning with medium-term bullish positions in Crude Oil Futures.
Position Traders: Monthly indicators such as Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports are essential for capturing long-term macroeconomic shifts. Sustained increases in natural gas prices, for example, might support prolonged bullish sentiment in crude oil markets.
7. Risk Management Strategies
Risk management is crucial when trading Crude Oil Futures due to the inherent volatility of energy markets. Key strategies include:
Hedging Volatility: Utilize correlated assets, such as natural gas or refined product futures, to hedge against price swings.
Monitoring Leverage: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements to minimize risk exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Timeframe Diversification: Incorporate insights from daily, weekly, and monthly indicators to create a balanced trading approach. For example, while daily indicators may signal short-term volatility, monthly metrics provide stability for longer-term trades.
8. Conclusion
Crude Oil Futures are deeply influenced by economic indicators across varying timeframes. From the U.S. Trade Balance and Building Permits driving daily fluctuations to Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports shaping long-term trends, understanding these relationships is critical for navigating the energy market.
By leveraging data-driven insights from machine learning models, traders can align their strategies with market dynamics and improve decision-making. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, these economic forces offer a framework for more informed and strategic trading.
Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we unveil the economic forces shaping another critical futures market.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
USOIL BULL Triangle The oil chart is showcasing a large triangle pattern within a smaller triangle, and the breakout of the smaller triangle to the upside strongly suggests that the larger triangle will also be broken. This breakout signals the potential to target significantly higher levels.
Additionally, the bottom has been tested approximately four times, with the last test clearing out all liquidity. Now, the chart appears to be gearing up for a major upward move after a prolonged accumulation phase.
As for my perspective, I’m betting on oil’s rise rather than its decline, even though the current triangle formation is typically a bearish (descending) triangle.
The second entry opportunity will present itself after the larger triangle is broken and confirmed through a retest.
Note: I don't care about the count if it right or not don't comment on that please
WTI OIL Channel Up emerging, aiming at $90.WTI Oil (USOIL) recently broke above its 15-month Lower Highs trend-line that has been keeping it under a bearish trend and is now naturally pulling back. This technical pull-back is so far within the tolerance levels of a bullish trend.
The pattern that making use of this trend is a Channel Up, newly emerged and now about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support for the first time since August 14 2024. As long as it holds, we expect the new Bullish Leg to start and as with the Jan - Apr 2024 Channel Up, rise towards the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is quite below it at $90.00.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy opportunity on the bottom trendline.WTI Crude Oil remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.480, MACD = 1.830, ADX = 66.542) despite the 4 day selling streak, which pushed the price under the 4H MA50. The HL trendline is still intact though, so technically that is a sound buy opportunity, especially if the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold level. We're bullish (TP = 86.00).
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WTI - The fate of oil with Trump's policies?!WTI oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable risk reward will be provided for us.
The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has stated that China’s crude oil production is expected to increase by 1% by 2025, reaching 215 million tons. Additionally, China’s crude oil imports are projected to grow by 1%, reaching 559 million tons.
The CEO of Aramco has noted that robust demand from China will continue to drive global oil demand growth. He predicts that oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025.
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, has directed his administration to revoke the “Executive Order on Electric Vehicles.” This move aims to roll back regulations on vehicle emissions and fuel efficiency standards, which he claims unfairly restrict consumer choice.
This directive, part of a broader executive order focused on energy, also calls on regulators to consider “eliminating unfair subsidies and other misguided government interventions that favor electric vehicles over other technologies and effectively mandate their purchase.”
On Monday, President Trump signed several energy-related executive orders, declaring a “National Energy Emergency” and launching measures heavily favoring fossil fuel development and production. These actions are seen as a blow to the energy policies of the previous administration under Joe Biden, which aimed to bolster the renewable energy sector. The new executive orders focus on boosting domestic energy production and lowering consumer costs.
In December, energy prices rose, contributing to overall inflation. Key drivers of the fuel price increases included:
• Colder-than-expected winter weather,
• Supply concerns driven by sanctions and geopolitical conflicts,
• Optimism about demand stimulation from China.
Pilot Company, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, has decided to cease its international oil and fuel trading operations. This decision comes after months of restructuring and the dismissal of many traders.
The President of the Petroleum Association of Japan has stated that despite Trump’s policies, uncertainty remains regarding increased oil and LNG production by U.S. energy developers. He also noted that there is little likelihood of an immediate increase in oil imports from the U.S., as Japan prefers to maintain a stable supply of crude oil from the Middle East, which is more compatible with Japanese refineries.
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into overlap resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 77.20 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 78.77 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 74.85 which is a pullback support.
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Hellena | Oil (4H): LONG to area of 82.000 (Wave "5"). Colleagues, all trading instruments are behaving extremely unpredictably right now due to the situation with Trump's inauguration among other things.
I see this as an opportunity to redraw the waves.
Apparently now the price is developing wave “4” and will finish it soon. I expect the price to reach the area of 82.000, renewing the high of wave “3”.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI tests resistance after bouncing from $75"We will drill, baby, drill"
That's what Donald Trump said yesterday and is what makes me think oil is headed lower in longer-term outlook, or at best upside should be limited in long-term.
In short-term a lot can happen of course, but right now the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside.
WTI has been trending lower in the last few days and broken some important support levels. These levels have turned into resistance. For example: $77.00.
Earlier, prices dipped to test the first major support area around 75.00, and it bounced from there. But thanks to Trump's bearish oil policy, we could see the selling resume.
At the time of writing, WTI was testing another broken support level around the 75.80 to 76.05 area. Will we see the sellers return here?
By Fawad Razaqada, market analyst with FOREX.com
WTI CRUDE OIL This pull back is the best buy opportunityWTI Crude Oil is on the pull back after a Resistance Zone (1) rejection.
The Rising Support trend line is parallel to the MA50 (1d) and a 0.5 Fibonacci test would be the most effective buy entry.
So far this resembles the January 29th 2024 rejection.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the 0.5 Fib.
Targets:
1. 86.50 (Resistance Zone 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) also shows similarities with the Jan 29th 2024 rejection, supporting our expectation of a MA50 (1d) bounce.
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WTI Crude continues with bearish tilt until Trendline is brokenBLACKBULL:WTI Crude has reached the top of the long-term triangular structure. Momentum benefits the upside but the long-term liquidity trendline is more important.
Optimism (as per Sentimentrader data) shows a potential optimism.
I will wait for the breakdown of near support to enter short
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Oil Market: WTI Barrel Faces the $78 BarrierOver the past two sessions, the price of crude oil has dropped more than 2%. This decline coincides with the Israeli Prime Minister reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. The temporary peace deal has been perceived as favorable for oil production, as it eliminates a geopolitical conflict that could have disrupted operations in the Middle East. As a result, production expectations have risen, contributing to downward pressure on crude prices.
Uptrend
The WTI crude market has maintained a steady upward trend since early December 2024. However, the most recent bullish peak showed significant momentum, which could signal the emergence of bearish corrections in the price.
MACD Indicator
The MACD and signal lines remain bullish but have begun to exhibit a negative slope. Additionally, the histogram has fallen to a fully neutral position around the 0 line of the indicator. These developments suggest a potential exhaustion of previous bullish momentum, creating opportunities for bearish movements.
RSI Indicator
The RSI line remains close to the overbought territory, hovering near the 70 level. Any future movements that revisit this level could increase the likelihood of short-term bearish corrections.
Key Levels
$78: This is the current resistance level, coinciding with the highs from August 2024. Sustained moves above this level could strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially accelerate the ongoing uptrend.
$72: A crucial support zone where bearish corrections are likely to see significant activity. Moves near or below this level could jeopardize the formation of the current upward channel.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
WTI OIL expecting a +10% rise.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Up, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since the December 27 break-out. The price has already made contact with the bottom of the pattern (Higher Lows trend-line) so it is already a buy opportunity.
The ultimate buy signal technically, however, has been the 4H RSI Higher Lows since the December 06 Low, so it is possible to see one more small pull-back before the trend reverses.
Since the previous two Bullish Legs have increased by at least +10% since their 4H RSI Lows, we are targeting $84.40, which is the Resistance 1 level, exactly on the +10% mark.
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Brent - Peace returned to the Middle East?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $80 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward.
Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $80 per barrel. This price increase continues to be supported by declining U.S. crude oil inventories and uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supplies following new U.S. sanctions.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the latest U.S. sanctions have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s energy exports. These sanctions have blacklisted over one-fifth of the tanker fleet transporting Russian oil. Last week, 160 sanctioned tankers transported over 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2024, accounting for approximately 22% of the country’s maritime exports. However, the IEA has maintained its current outlook on Russia’s oil supply and will update it based on future developments.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, though Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office stated that details are yet to be finalized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for his role in the Gaza agreement and announced plans to meet him in Washington soon. Netanyahu also expressed gratitude to U.S. President Joe Biden for aiding in the hostage agreement. A senior Hamas official confirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire proposed by mediators.
In the oil market, attention remains focused on uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supply after the announcement of stricter U.S. sanctions. Additionally, declining U.S. crude oil inventories provide further support for prices. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.96 million barrels last week to under 413 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2022. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in crude oil imports by 304,000 barrels per day and an increase in exports by 1 million barrels per day. In refined products, despite a 1.6% drop in refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 5.85 million barrels and 3.08 million barrels, respectively.
The Colonial Pipeline, which transports about 1.5 million barrels per day of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast, is expected to remain closed until Friday following a leak earlier this week. This has provided limited upward support to gasoline prices.
The IEA and OPEC have both released their monthly oil market reports. The IEA warned that new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could lead to supply disruptions. Additionally, the agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward due to colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The IEA estimates that global oil demand in 2024 will increase by 940,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous estimate. For 2025, demand is expected to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day.
OPEC, in its monthly report, maintained its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.45 million barrels per day. For 2026, the group’s initial forecast predicts an increase of 1.43 million barrels per day. OPEC also kept its 2025 supply growth estimate for non-OPEC+ countries unchanged at 1.11 million barrels per day and expects a similar increase for 2026. OPEC’s production in December rose slightly to 26.74 million barrels per day, while overall OPEC+ output fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 40.65 million barrels per day due to reduced production in Kazakhstan. OPEC data indicates that demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 will reach 42.5 million barrels per day and rise to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2026.
Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani told Reuters that Iraq plans to sign a major oil and gas deal in Kirkuk with BP by early February. He noted that this deal will surpass the scale of the major 2023 agreement with TotalEnergies.