WTI (Crude Oil)
Crude WTI Oil (A bullish base is formed!)View On WTI Oil (18 Aug 2022)
We had a strong rebound to the UPside from $64 region and it is going UP nicely.
$66~$68 is a good support region now.
We shall see further upside $73~$75 soon.
I will be on Slightly Bullish/ Bullish mode unless 657 is broken strongly.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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Thank You!
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Energy Fundamental + Technical Macroeconomic Update | 3.14.23WTI Crude Futures Rebound, Brent Crude Futures Rise
On Wednesday, Brent crude futures rose above $78 per barrel, rebounding from three-month lows as OPEC raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023 due to the country's exit from the zero-Covid policy. However, the group left its outlook for global demand unchanged, citing potential downside risks for global growth. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's energy minister confirmed that OPEC+ would continue with production cuts agreed upon in October until the end of the year. Meanwhile, the international oil benchmark remained down by more than 5% this week due to the turmoil in the US banking sector and the prospect of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Heating Oil Futures Fall
Heating oil futures extended losses and were priced at around $2.7 per gallon, approaching their lowest point since February 2022. This was due to weak domestic demand and concerns about a recession caused by the Fed. The unusually warm winter season significantly reduced demand and increased supply. According to the latest EIA data, distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 0.138 million barrels in the week ending March 3rd, while analysts predicted a decrease of 1.038 million barrels.
Gasoline Futures Dip
Gasoline futures fell below $2.6 per gallon, slipping further from an over one-month high of $2.8 reached last week. This was due to overall weakness in energy markets and persistent concerns about low domestic demand, exacerbated by the failure of SVB and the closure of Signature Bank. Despite this, the upcoming peak demand season for gasoline and increased demand from China could lead to higher gasoline prices in the medium term. OPEC's reluctance to raise production should also keep a floor under the cost. According to the latest EIA report, US gasoline stocks fell by 1.134 million barrels in the week ending March 3rd, 2023.
Gold Prices Unchanged
Gold prices remained steady at around $1908 an ounce on Tuesday, near high levels not seen since early February. Investors are digesting the latest US CPI report and adjusting their monetary tightening expectations. Concerns regarding the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank, and news that Credit Suisse found "material weaknesses" in its reporting, continue to raise fears of contagion to other banks, leading to a risk-off mood. The inflation rate in the US slowed as expected, but the core monthly rate accelerated, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated. Most investors now expect a 25bps rate hike from the Fed next week, while the ECB is expected to raise rates by either 25bps or 50bps.
Crude Oil: Ideas and SolutionsCrude oil market trend analysis:
Crude oil is still in a volatile state, with a bearish close this week but the body of the candlestick did not break through the support level. Therefore, a bullish close is not ruled out next week, and a long position with a bias towards the downside can be considered. The weekly support is around 75.6, with resistance around 80, and it is possible to consider a long position with a high short. On the daily chart, the price stabilized and rose on Friday, with a long upper shadow and a bullish close, suggesting a bias towards an initial rise at the beginning of next week. Support is around 76.1, and there is a long and short division within the day. If it does not break, a long position can be established first. If the market is volatile, there may be an opportunity to long around 75.3, with the first target above 77.4.
Methods to resolve long and short positions:
For investors with high-priced long or short positions, they can use rebound market trends to resolve their positions or reduce positions at a high level. Once the market changes, stop-loss positions should be established and positions should be reversed to compensate for losses.
For investors with mid-priced long or short positions, they can temporarily observe and not rush to cut positions. If there are opportunities in the market, they can reduce positions appropriately, add positions based on trends combined with technical analysis, and compensate for losses.
For investors with low-priced long or short positions, they can use the market downturn to resolve their positions or reduce positions at a low level. Once the market changes, stop-loss positions should be established and positions should be reversed to compensate for losses.
For friends who have positions in the market, since I do not know the specific details of your position, it is difficult to provide corresponding strategies to resolve your positions.
If you need to resolve your problem, you can enter a personal free channel for further information.
RBOB Gasoline Future Macro Bearish 5-0Gasoline Futures is very near the PCZ of a Bearish 5-0 but is actually showing a very notable amount of weakness at the 0.382 and is Bearishly Diverging if this keeps up we will see Gasoline Breakdown out of the Bearish Consolidation and probably go back to pre-2020 Levels.
USOIL: Likely Setting Up For a Bearish Harmonic FailureThe WTICO has been trading up and down within this channel due to a pause in the bearish price action that it's found at this .886 Bullish Bat PCZ but looking at slightly lower timeframes and the current Fed Condition i do not believe this Bullish Harmonic will perform; I instead expect for it to eventually fail and bearishly breakdown out of the consolidation channel and flush down to the nearest potential support levels of $50-$40 then maybe even $30-$12 which would line up with the 0.886 of the entire trend and would then satisfy all the Macro Bearish Shark Harmonic Targets that can be seen in a much earlier post below:
It should also be noted that we are trading around the 89 Day EMA and that price has bearishly reversed from the 89 EMA everytime it has hit it since the bear trend began.
USOIL Continues To Struggle at the Bearish Butterfly HOP LevelLast week i entered a trade at the PCZ of the Bearish Butterfly and it went a bit higher but found resistance at the HOP Level after diverging on the RSI and is coming back below the 800EMA so i have held and added to my entry and am still targeting the full ABCD Breakdown Movement down to $70 or lower.
US OIL- Pt.2- Patience is the keyIn our previous post we explained how we believe that oil still needs to complete a cycle wave 2 in the area 57-60, where the 61.8% fibo retracement and the upper trendline of a big descending broadening wedge stand.
We then took a potential short opportunity at 75.8@, but we were kicked out at entry and we believe that the correction in wave ii of C of (Z) still has to complete higher, when the golden fibo level of i coincides with the level for which a=c. We are then waiting 78.14 to restrike.
Bearish Crab on USOIL: Bearish Continuation Expected This WeekWe have a Bearish Crab with MACD Bearish Divergence at Last Week's high on USOIL after a reaction to the PCE report. I'm expecting that we have reached a top for the week and that we will continue to make the bigger move to the downside to continue the trend started by the 4HR Bearish Bat Trade Below.
I will be waiting for the stock market to actually open before taking the trade if it's still within the Pattern Completion Zone by then.
oil 11-24 update.good evening,
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remember in my last oil post when i called the top?
there was some really salty humans in the comment section who were most likely bag holders from the absolute peak of the bull run.
this is an update for them.
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last post:
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i feel like oil has entered into a quatervois here, which is basically "crossroad" in french.
currently seeing two potential trajectories:
1.
-oil runs up to 100ish through an expanded flat (green targets most probable, grey are weak, and red is unlikely, but always possible).
-after which, a swift downturn to my $57 target from the original post.
2.
-oil simply see's a dead-cat bounce, creates another hidden bearish divergence, and rolls over yet again - continuing it's bearish trajectory to my original target.
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all paths lead down there, potentially even deeper - but the question as always is: which path's it gonna take?
ps. no offense to all the people who talk smack on my posts, you're always welcome if you have a proper argument.
just keep in mind, "fundamentals, is not a proper argument".
WTI Crude Oil: Are we following BTC's previous top? 18/05/22 Shown is an overlay of Bitcoin's previous top ~$69k. We are showing very similar price action of a wide, heavy range at highs, with the micro lower highs on the underside signalling a continuation / blow off top spike is possible.
Product supply is increasing from several refineries opening from maintenance alongside seasonal demand, allowing for the current upward pressure. Longer term problems for crude oil range from high consumer energy prices to a declining SP while $ strengthens. Several COVID spikes globally also once again pose a risk.
This is a fractal that I have been keeping my eye on for quite some time, and is one that I have seen on several assets, across several timeframes.
WTI by KarolTWRopa w słabym trendzie spadkowym ale nadal ten trend trwa. Wzrost jaki się budował w ubiegłym tygodniu jest jeszcze naturalnej wielkości w stosunku do korekt poprzednich w trendzie. A więc jeżeli cena uderza w dół z układu 1:1 warto przyjąć scenariusz że zaczniemy nadal budować niższe dołki. Lokalnie zakładam iż dostaliśmy pierwszy impuls w dół i trwa korekta tego impulsu. Pierwsza strefa w której szukałbym sygnału spadkowego to zakończenie fali "C" k.prostej oznaczone kolorem czerwonym. Pozdrawiam KarolTW
Oil Forecast and Analysis for ending Sept. 21WTI crude futures were trading around the $80 per barrel mark, pressured by persistent concerns over a demand-sapping global economic slowdown, while a stronger dollar supercharged the bearish momentum. The US oil benchmark is poised to decline for the fourth straight month while heading for its first quarterly loss in more than two years as markets were worried that aggressive interest rate hikes could hit the global economy and energy demand. Still, an escalating energy standoff between the European Union and Russia threatened to disrupt supply further. At the same time, weaker crude prices prompted speculation that OPEC+ could announce another production cut next week.
Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown on WTICOUSWTICOUS - Intraday - We look to Sell at 85.83 (stop at 88.00)
The medium term bias remains bearish. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher. Previous support at 86.00 now becomes resistance. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 80.06 and 78.00
Resistance: 86.00 / 97.20 / 112.00
Support: 80.00 / 66.00 / 44.00
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