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WTI (Crude Oil)

WTICIUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been very tight during the month of April, and it now looks as if we are trying to build up enough momentum to make a bigger move. It is worth noting that the uptrend line of the triangle is still very much intact, so you should pay close attention to it. It is as if the market is trying to determine whether or not the demand is going to overwhelm supply or vice versa. After all, there are a lot of moving pieces when it comes to the global economy at the moment. It is worth noting that we are just above the $100 level, and that of course has a certain amount of psychology attached to it. As long as we can stay above the $100 level and that uptrend line that I have plotted on this chart, then it is difficult to imagine shorting this market. If the market takes out the $110 level, it is very likely that we will have a significant amount of momentum building up for the buyers, and therefore could allow the market to go looking towards the recent highs, which is closer to the $130 level. However, if we start to see the global economy slow down enough to cause demand concerns, then it is possible that we could break down below the uptrend line. If we do, then it opens up a move down to the $90 level, possibly even down to the 50 Week EMA which is currently at the $83 level. This would more likely than not be based upon the idea of the global economy falling apart, which obviously is something that is a major concern now that China continues to lock things down. However, it is probably worth noting how strong the market has been behaving in the face of half of China being shut-in. With all this being said, I do have more of an upward bias, but I also recognize that things can change in a flash. Because of this, I will continue to use the triangle as a guideline as to where we go next, understanding that volatility is probably the only thing that we are going to see on a constant basis, so position sizing and stop loss placement will be crucial.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by SmoothJB
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially rally during the trading session on Thursday to retest the 50 Day EMA and of course the previous uptrend line. Because of this, it looks as if the downtrend is intact, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before crude oil breaks rather significantly, perhaps reaching the $95 level early during the session on Friday, and maybe even breaking down below there. If we do break down below that level, then I will be targeting the $90 level. The market is going to be concerned about the fact that gasoline demand is dropping, which of course is a situation where perhaps the market had gotten so far ahead of itself that it forgot that the “cure for higher prices is higher prices.” As the world looks likely to head into recession, this is weighing upon the crude oil market because it will drive demand down. There is a structural problem with supply over the longer term, but perhaps a recession might give the oil industry a chance to catch up. As we had been locked down due to the pandemic, it is not a huge surprise that when the economy opened up around the world that the demand shock pulled prices much higher. Now that it looks like the tide is turning, we may see oil drop rather significantly. On the upside, if we were to take out the top of the Wednesday candlestick, then it is possible that the WTI Crude Oil market could go higher, perhaps reaching the $110 level, maybe even the $115 level. All things have been equal, it looks as if oil is starting to lose its mojo, making lower highs along the way. As long as that is going to be the case, then I think that you continue to fade rallies, but you should keep in the back of your mind that oil markets have been extraordinarily volatile, especially with the Russian supply essentially being taken off of the open market. The US dollar has its influence as well, but this market has been rather strong for a while, and now it looks like it is finally running out of momentum. When a market gets parabolic the way this one did, it quite often is a sign of significant overextension.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SmoothJB
WTICO-CRUDE OILThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been all over the place during the trading session on Thursday, as traders continue to try to price in a bit of a premium for Russian aggression, and of course, the fact that most shipping companies will have nothing to do with transporting Russian oil, effectively taking 10% of the world’s inventory off-line. Going forward, the market almost certainly will find plenty of buyers, but I think we are getting close to a significant pullback. Quite frankly, there are only so many people out there willing to buy this market going into this type of volatility, and although longer term we will probably go much higher, you need to see a certain amount of profit-taking and of value hunting after that to continue the overall uptrend. On the downside, I see the $100 level as a potential support level, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that has been important in the past. We have seen a major breakout there, and I think it may have to be retested before we go much higher. However, this does not take into account that we could see a headline crosses the wires that send the market parabolic again, especially if it involves Russia. We are obviously in an uptrend and a very strong one at that. However, when markets become parabolic like this it is very difficult to keep up this kind of momentum, so the market almost certainly will have to pull back in order to attract more trading capital from big accounts. Even if you told me that we were most certainly going to fall in price tomorrow, I would not sell this market because it is so sensitive to the occasional headline. As far as changing the overall trend is concerned, I think we would have to break significantly below the $100 level because it would show a complete change in momentum. Unless Russia pulls out of Ukraine suddenly, I just do not see that happening. With all things being equal, this is a market that if you are patient enough you should find value that you can take advantage of. This is by far the preferable way to trade the market, as it has been so obviously one way.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Looking for a PullbackThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday as we have seen a lot of volatility in various markets. That being said, the market has rallied significantly during the course of the trading session, only to turn around and fall towards the $90 level. That being said, we did up forming a bit of a shooting star, and it does suggest that maybe we get a little bit of a pullback. However, the market has seen a hammer from the previous session, so be interesting to see if we just definitely hang about the $90 level, or if we are going to have a little bit deeper pullback. Quite frankly, I would love to see a little bit more of a pullback, but I do not know that we get it. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick from the Wednesday session, then I will start looking to pick up this market somewhere around the $86.50 level with an eye on the $85 level underneath being massive support. The 50 day EMA is also reaching higher, and therefore it is likely it will kind of combined to add a massive “floor in the trend.” If we do turn around a break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Thursday, then it could open up a move towards the highs. Either way, I do not have any interest in shorting this market, due to the massive uptrend that we have seen, but quite frankly this is a market that is probably due for some type of correction. This will be especially true if the US dollar starts to spike going forward, which obviously has a small influence on this market. I think the only thing you can count on at this point is a bit of volatility as we are at a major level, and of course the markets in general are freaking out about the Federal Reserve and the high inflation that we see. If they slam on the brakes by tightening monetary policy, it could drive down demand in the world’s biggest economy, which has a knock on effect in several other economies. Because of this, crude oil will more than likely have to cool off a bit in order to build up momentum to the upside.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Price Breaks Short-Term ResistanceThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a bit on Tuesday to show signs of life and break through a very short-term resistance barrier. We have not been able to sustain the move significantly, but it still looks as if we are going to get more bullish pressure. When you look at the chart, it does not take a lot of imagination to suggest that we have just broken above the top of a bullish flag, which is a very bullish sign and could send this market towards the most recent highs near the $85 level. To the downside, we have the 50 day EMA turning towards the upside and showing signs of positivity. That should be support, and I think that any short-term pullback will more than likely offer a nice opportunity to get long. However, if we were to break down below there, then it is likely that we will go challenging the $73 level underneath. The $73 level was an area of significant resistance previously, but I do not think that it will be as important this time if we get down to that area. On the other hand, if we break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Tuesday, then it is likely that we could go looking towards the $79 level, an area where we had sold off from previously. If we can break above there and the $80 level, then it is likely that we could go much higher. Ultimately, this is a market that I do think continues to see plenty of buyers, and this will be especially true if we continue to see plenty of pressure. The market has been rallying for the last couple weeks, and the noisy behavior that we have seen over the last week or so is simply the market trying to build up enough momentum to continue what we had seen previously. I have no interest in shorting this market, but if we broke down below the $73 level, then we might see a little bit more of a correction, but that is about as negative as I plan on getting in this market anytime soon. This is a market that looks as if it is building up plenty of upward pressure.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTI Crude Oil ForecastAs we get back to work, traders will have to put money back on their books in order to take risk on, and crude oil certainly looks like it is a great candidate for something like that. With the 50 day EMA sitting just below the $75 level, that means that the $75 level has little bit more psychology attached to it than usual. Nonetheless, you can see that we have skyrocketed over the last couple of weeks and I think it has become obvious as to which direction traders are starting to trade this market now that massive lockdowns due to the omicron seem to be off the table. That was one of the biggest concerns that most traders had, that economies would have to shut down and thereby kill the idea of demand for energy. Now that traders have to get back to work, they will find alpha to generate, and crude oil is one of the best places to do so. While we did not completely wipe out the massive selloff from about a month ago, we got awfully close to it and that does suggest that perhaps we will eventually make that attempt once traders start to put full positions back on. Another thing to pay attention to is the jobs numbers coming on Friday, and that will also give us a big “heads up” as to potential energy demand, so it could be yet another reason to think that the market may go higher over the intermediate term. I have no interest in shorting this market right now, as I believe it is well supported all the way down to at least $70.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: January 2022WTI Crude Oil Outlook for January Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 67.00 to 89.00 USD. If WTI falters below the 73.00 level and begins to challenge prices below 70.00 this may be perceived as a bearish sign in the market. Having touched the 66.00 level in the middle of December, some traders may feel the urge to test downward momentum of WTI Crude Oil believing it can retest those lows. However, traders shorting the commodity should not get too ambitious. The current direction of WTI may prove to be a solid bullish signal. If lows are tested, they may provide a solid position to ignite buying positions. If WTI Crude Oil is able to penetrate the 77.00 price level and sustain its momentum, the price of 78.00 should be watched carefully. Technically, there is reason to suspect if late November prices are challenged with upwards price action that the 80.00 juncture could become a speculative playground for WTI like it was able to display in October and November. While some skeptics may believe WTI Crude Oil has been overbought in the short term, the price is actually still under levels displayed a month and a half ago. If positive market sentiment continues to build into the global economic picture, traders may believe WTI could begin to challenge marks above 80.00 and aim for the 82.00 to 84.00 ratios without too many hurdles. Bullish traders who are optimistic may believe there is another leg higher that can be demonstrated in January for WTI Crude Oil. WTI Crude Oil looks set to begin January within the higher realms of it one-month chart. That is a simple enough perception. But the fight for higher values has not been easy. Essentially from the second week of October until the middle of November, WTI Crude Oil was trading above the 80.00 USD level. Highs on the 25th of October saw the 85.00 mark challenged and this was nearly duplicated on the 10th of November. On the 25th of November WTI Crude Oil was trading near 77.00, two days later it was challenging the 67.00 ratio. On the 2nd of December the 62.00 mark came within sight for the commodity. A price recovery ensued with choppy conditions prevailing, but on the 16th of December WTI was near 73.00, when a reversal lower abruptly took place again and a low of nearly 66.00 USD per barrel was demonstrated on the 20th. However since that recent low WTI Crude Oil has been a buyers’ market and as of this writing the commodity is approaching 77.00 USD. Technically WTI has certainly confronted speculators with choppy conditions and risk management has proven an important tool. However, the swift movement in value has also provided traders an opportunity to take advantage of volatility and test their perceptions as global conditions move because of headline ‘noise’ and speculative nervousness. While Crude Oil certainly saw its value erode in late November due to a new onslaught of fears caused by the Omicron variant, the past couple of weeks have seen an incremental climb. WTI Crude Oil now appears ready to begin January near values which could be ready to test marks last seen before the new coronavirus fears struck the marketplace in late November. Technical traders may be somewhat skeptical of the move higher seen the past week because they may believe this has something to do with light holiday trading. While it may prove to be an important facet of the actual market regarding volumes, the ability of WTI Crude Oil to fight off of lows seen in early December and go into January almost having recovered it total price seen in late November is intriguing.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTICOUSD - nice point for a bearish continuation?Hello all, After a major breakout of the big rising wedge on 1D and 1W timeframes the oil price has been doing a correction. Now the price is reaching the previous structural ATH, which will possibly become a quite strong resistance. On the other hand, we can draw a bear flag pattern on 4H chart, which is a bearish AAD pattern to the long term rising wedge. Thus there are good odds for entering a quite successful long term short term on oil. On the other hand, if we take on the economic/fundamental side of the game: The worldwide inflation is running crazy The Fed had already increased the tapering speed, it is only a matter of time when they will completely stop QE and starting pushing up interest rates The global auto market is rapidly developing in favor of EV vehicles which in turn decreases the oil demand All in all, right it might be a good time to enter a long term short trade. Entry, TP, SL and scale-in points are on the graph. Good luck! If you like this idea, please, like and subscribe! :) Disclaimer: This is not a trading advice or signal. Any risk related to trading this commodity is solely on you. Please, think thoroughly before making any trading decision. Cheers! :)
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Barysbyek
4
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Price Captures 50-Day EMAThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied on Friday to capture the 50-day EMA. That is a very good sign and it looks as if we are ready to break out. That being said, we will have to see how this plays out due to the fact that there are a lot of questions as to whether or not the lockdowns are going to be an issue. At this point, it does not seem to be as big of an issue, so the question now is did we see the massive selloff due to fears of the omicron variant, or are there are concerns about slowing growth in general? When you look at the chart, you can see that the $73 level had offered quite a bit of resistance, and now that we have broken above there, it does suggest that we are ready to continue going higher. At this point, I would anticipate a move towards the $79 level, which is where the wipeout candle came into play several weeks ago. Getting to the top of that would be a very bullish turn of events for the crude oil market, and it certainly looks as if we could make that move based upon the fact that there really is not much in the way of resistance between here and there other than the 50 day EMA where we are currently sitting. That is only psychological at best, so it is very likely that we are going to continue grinding away to the upside. If we do pull back from here, I think that the $73 level should offer a certain amount of support as it had been previous resistance, so “market memory” could come into play. If we turn around and break down below the $73 level, then we may have to reset at much lower levels, but right now that does not look like it is the most likely of outcomes. Looking at this chart, it looks to me like the recovery has been very strong, and I think the momentum will continue to pick up. Over the next couple of days, I would anticipate more of a back-and-forth type of situation, but by the time we get back to work in January, we could go much higher.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB