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WTI (Crude Oil)

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Market Rolls Over After Global SurplusThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially tried to recover after a gap lower on Tuesday. However, the IEA has announced that the crude oil market has gone from a shortage to being oversupplied. That is a complete reversal from where we were, and this does suggest that perhaps we are going to see more negativity over the longer term. It is worth noting that we are sitting just above the 200 day EMA, which is followed by a lot of technical traders around the world. We are below the $70 level though, so that bit of psychology has been worked through. If we break down below the 200 day EMA, then it is likely that we could go looking towards the $65 level. The $65 level underneath is coinciding with the massive uptrend line, which suggests that we are ready to test that area and see a big battle on our hands. If we were to break down below the $65 level, then we could see a real capitulation by oil traders. To the upside, we would have to break out above the $73 level for me to even remotely consider buying this contract at this point. Keep in mind that above there we have to worry about the 50 day EMA and the $75 level, both areas which would attract a lot of technical attention. There are a lot of concerns out there about various parts of the world shutting down to the latest headlines of whatever version of the virus we are on right now, and that has everybody freaking out. The reality is that if oil producers have caught up, then the entire situation has changed in general. Pay close attention to the US dollar, because if it does start to strengthen again, it will work against the value of this contract. Remember, crude oil is priced in US dollars so that has a certain amount of inverse effect on this market, but it does not have to. A lot of it comes down to why oil is rising or falling. We have fully priced in the reflation trade at this point, and I think at this point we are starting to see traders unwind what has been a really good trade for months.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SmoothJB
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Looks Set to Pull BackThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, only to break down rather significantly and show signs of extreme weakness. By doing so, the market looks as if it is probably going to test the 200 day EMA underneath, which currently sits at the $69.21 level. Whether or not we break down below there is a completely different question, but it is worth noting that the $73 level has been a bit like a brick wall, and therefore I think at the very least we have a pullback coming. The 200 day EMA will obviously attract a lot of attention, but whether or not it holds will remain to be seen. If we break down below there, then it is likely we go looking towards the $65 region, where we had a major uptrend line and a hammer form and bounced from. The market is more than likely going to respect that area, but if we break down below the $65 level, then it is very likely that crude oil will break significantly lower. A lot of this is going to be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks, because part of what we are seeing here is the fact that liquidity will start to dry up towards the end of the year and therefore you need to pay close attention to your position size. After all, you may get the occasional spike that causes havoc for your account. If we can break above that $73 level finally, then I think the market goes looking towards the $75 level, which also happened to be where the 50 day EMA is. The question now is whether or not the markets are going to start pricing in a massive slow down economically or are they going to start looking towards the fact that demand for crude oil could continue to go higher based upon the reopening trade. Omicron did cause quite a bit of wreckage in risk appetite around the world, but it does look as if the variant is not going to be as dangerous as some of the others. However, if governments continue to try to shut everything down, that obviously has a very negative effect on crude oil.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by SmoothJB
WTICOUSD is expected to rise further. WTICOUSD is expected to rise further. The analysis shows that WTI is moving in a wider channel. This channel, which I have marked with a purple line, is a slightly upward band. The upper axis of the band is a D1ATR axis. Nevertheless, the next rising wave section may cross it. The figure shows a green and a yellow square. These are correction fractals. It can be seen that both their size and shape are identical. This means that we can expect a rising wave sequence of similar size after the completion of the corrective movement. With the following target price : 90.191 usd
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by meszaros
20
Oil +400 PipGain from Yesterday's Forecast/Long Execution @Yesterday I posted re: Opec. Just as forecasted in this channel yesterday, The most anticipated event of the week, a decision by OPEC+ on whether or not to cease its monthly 400,000 b/d oil production rise, turned out to be a bit of a non-event, with the nations agreeing to remain with the previous plan but retaining the flexibility to reverse that decision if required. While oil prices initially fell as a result of the revelation, later disclosures about the caveats involved allayed market concerns about OPEC+ ignoring Omicron dangers. First, OPEC+ promised to reassemble soon if market circumstances changed. Second, nations that have already overproduced their quotas will have their future production objectives limited in order to balance their yearly statistics. These limitations helped fuel the rise in oil prices towards the conclusion of the week. We remain fundamentally long-bias for the remainder of the longer term.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SteadyTradeAI
Crude Oil Plummets on OPEC DecisionOPEC Agrees January 2022 Supply Hike Less than one month ago, WTI Crude Oil was trading at about $85 per barrel, which was a multi-year high price. Over the past three weeks the price descended rapidly from that high, and today extended that trend to approach the 6-month low price at $61.76. The pace of this downwards trend accelerated a few days ago with the news of the discovery of the omicron coronavirus variant. As there are fears that this variant may be dealt with by lockdowns and trade shutdowns or delays, if its potency is revealed to be high, we can expect a drop in demand, which will inevitably mean a drop in the price of WTI Crude Oil. It was against this backdrop that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed a short while ago to extend the supply of January 2022 Crude Oil by 400,000 barrels per day. There are initial reports that the members are also agreed to review this decision if demand does drop rapidly over the coming weeks. WTI Crude Oil Price Action The price of WTI Crude Oil has fallen strongly over the past few days. It has fallen by more than 25% in value since reaching a multi-year high of $85.39 on 25th October 2021. The pace of the fall has quickened recently. The drop is showing what might be initial signs of exhaustion as it approaches the key support level at $61.89 which represents the lowest price seen since May 2021. What Does This Mean for Traders? Traders should be aware that if the omicron coronavirus variant is resistant to existing vaccines and can also cause serious illness to vaccinated people, governments may well react by initiating another round of shutdowns for a while, as they did in March and April 2020 when the disease really began to spread worldwide. The lockdowns, shutdowns, and trade restrictions that were put in place in the spring of 2020 did a great deal of economic damage, although most economies rebounded strongly after this period as restrictions were eased. The panic of March 2020 saw huge and very rapid directional movements in the markets, but nothing was as spectacular as the price action in WTI Crude Oil, with futures actually going into negative territory for a while. This and the subsequent strong rebound gave traders and speculators some incredible trade opportunities, first short, then long. If history is going to repeat itself, even if on a smaller scale, the price of WTI Crude Oil has good reasons to fall further, in line with the long-term trend. How far it might fall is anyone’s guess, but if omicron is economically destructive, it is very likely to.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SmoothJB
1
Central Banks 101: Don't fight institutional financeCentral banks have considerable power in the foreign currency market. Central banks are primarily responsible for long-term inflation management while also contributing to the general stability of the financial system. When deemed appropriate, central banks will act in financial markets in accordance with the previously specified "Monetary Policy Framework." Forex traders hoping to profit from the consequent currency fluctuations closely watch and anticipate the policy's implementation. What Is the Function of a Central Bank? [/b Central banks are self-governing entities that help governments throughout the globe manage their commercial banking sectors, establish central bank interest rates, and ensure financial stability throughout the country's financial system. Central banks have an impact on financial markets in a variety of ways, including, but not limited to, the following: The procedure by which governments purchase and sell government securities (bonds) on the open market in order to boost or reduce the quantity of money in the banking system is referred to as open market operations (OMO). In order to boost or depress economic activity, the monetary policy committee establishes the central bank rate, often known as the discount rate or the federal funds rate. While it may seem contradictory, an overheated economy leads to inflation, which central banks strive to keep at a controllable level. Responsibilities of the Central Bank Central banks were founded to serve the public interest and carry out a mission imposed by the government. While duties vary by country, the following are the primary tasks in each: Achieve and maintain price stability : Central banks are in charge of keeping their own currencies' exchange rates stable. This is accomplished by keeping inflation at a manageable level across the economy. Improving financial system stability: To reduce systemic risk in the financial sector, central banks subject commercial banks to stress testing. Adopt the following measures to promote an economy's balanced and long-term growth: Fiscal and monetary stimulus are the two most common approaches for a government to boost its economy. Two means for achieving this objective are fiscal policy (government expenditure) and monetary policy (interest rates) (central bank intervention). Central banks may use monetary policy to try to boost the economy by lowering interest rates when governments' budgetary resources are exhausted. Fourth , central banks are responsible for overseeing and regulating financial institutions for the good of the public. Lower unemployment: Central banks may be interested in lowering unemployment in addition to maintaining price stability and encouraging long-term growth. One of the purposes of the Federal Reserve System is to achieve this. Central banks also serve as lenders of last resort in a number of situations. A government with a low debt-to-GDP ratio that is unable to raise money via a bond auction may be able to borrow from the central bank to meet a short-term liquidity need. Investor trust in the financial system is boosted by the presence of a central bank that serves as a lender of last resort. Investors have greater trust in governments' capacity to pay their debt commitments as a result of decreased borrowing rates.
TVC:DXY
by SteadyTradeAI
WTICOUSD - long term shortHello all, Right now the price is breaking out of the long term rising wedge and most importantly out of the structural level (75-80 USD). First of all, we need to wait until the 1D bearish candle closes below that stuctu- ral level. After that the retracement is very likely, which will give a chance for a successful entry. The entry should be at the structural level. TP, scale-in and BE SL points are indicated on the graph. Disclaimer: Any risk related to trading this commodity is solely on you. Please, think thoroughly before making any trading decision.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Barysbyek
2
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Trying to RecoverThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has broken down a bit during the course of the session on Thursday but has seen a bit of buying pressure to test the 50 day EMA. The market is forming a bit of a hammer, and now that we have had a nice pullback, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see this market continue to go higher. At that point, it is likely that the market would go looking towards the $85 level, which is where we had recently formed a bit of a “double top” previously. I think the $85 level is more likely than not going to be the target, and I do not think that it will be easy to break above. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the bottom of the hammer for the trading session on Thursday, then it opens up a move down to the $75 level. That is an area that I think has a lot of psychology attached to it, and therefore I think I would be a bit surprised to see this market break down below there. Even if it did, the 200 day EMA is reaching towards the $70 level as well, so I think that is your “floor the market” going forward. Nonetheless, we have formed a nice hammer for the day, and this does suggest that the buyers are trying to step up and pick this market up. If that is going to be the case, then it is probably only a matter of time, or we turn around and go looking towards the $85 level above. Looking at this chart, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but you should keep in mind that we are in an uptrend . That is probably the most important thing here to pay attention to, so because of this you need to keep the “buy on the dips” type of set up in mind, as trying to short a market that has been so strong for months on end would be rather foolish and probably a great way to lose money. If we can somehow break above the $85 level, then it is likely that we could go much higher, perhaps filling the idea of a $100 target.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTICOUSD-Testing 50-Day EMAThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell on Wednesday to reach down towards the crucial 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is an area that will continue to cause a certain amount of attention, but it should be noted that we have sliced through the $80 level rather easily. We are closing towards the bottom of the range for the day, so now the question is whether or not we will have follow-through. That typically is the case that when you close towards the bottom of the range; quite often you will see a bit of follow-through in the next session. There are a lot of concerns out there that the Biden administration may release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which could bring down pricing for a short-term move, but longer-term it tends to have a very limited effect on the markets. Because of this, I think that we will eventually have a nice buying opportunity, but it is a scenario where we need to pay close attention to the idea of value as it occurs, because there is no reason that I can see for a longer-term trend change. The market looking at the consolidation area could probably see it as a bullish flag being formed. This is a market that I think continues to offer plenty of value, so it is likely that we could eventually find quite a bit of buying pressure. Keep in mind that the inventory numbers coming out of the United States will continue to dictate where we go, and we have those over the next 24 hours. Underneath, I think the $75 level is going to end up being a bit of a floorin the market, unless of course there is some type of huge negative attitude out there, something that I have not seen much of recently. In fact, one could make an argument for the recent action forming a little bit of a big “potential double bottom” in what would be a continuation longer term. We will have to wait and see, but that is one potential set up if we can break above the highs of the day, extensively recapturing the $80 level. I do not like shorting oil right now, but that does not necessarily mean you need to jump in with both feet. This is a market that I think continues to offer plenty of value, so it is likely that we could eventually find quite a bit of buying pressure.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by SmoothJB
No Forecast (WTICO/USD Trade Update).The market as it has for the whole of October is looking great frame a higher time frame perspective but very poor from a lower time frame one, at least in terms of opportunities which meet my plan. So this is just a quick trade update for you where the short trade that I placed yesterday on WTICO/USD is concerned. Patience always pays folks and I'm in this game for the long haul, not with the intention of "getting risk quickly" like a large percentage of my fellow market participants are but with the intention of continuing to generate wealth for myself and my family steadily and when you let the market come to you as opposed to you chasing the market you'll feel empowered as I always do and this is going to increase your confidence in your trading ability as it has mine and it's this confidence and this mindset which is going to set you up for success as a trader. Have a great weekend!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by StewySongs
2
WTICO/USD and GBP/NZD on watch for me today.WTICO/USD: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/NZD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our lower rayline and it does so correctively, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by StewySongs
3
GBP/NZD and SUGAR/USD on watch for me today.GBP/NZD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our lower rayline and it does so correctively, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. SUGAR/USD: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:SUGARUSD
by StewySongs
1
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially rally during the trading session on Monday, reaching towards the crucial $85 level. The $85 level of course has a certain amount of psychological importance attached to it, so it is worth paying attention to the fact that we have fallen from that level. The market forming a bit of a shooting star suggests that we are ready to pull back just a bit, but I do think there is enough support underneath to keep this market going forward. All things been equal, the market is very bullish, and nothing has changed. I anticipate that there is probably a certain amount of resistance to the $85 level based not only upon psychology, but probably based upon the options market as well. Nonetheless, I do like the idea of pulling back and finding value that we can take advantage of going forward. The $82.50 level attracts a certain amount of attention, and most certainly the $80 level will as well. I think the $80 level is your short-term support level, and therefore I think that is the bottom of the overall range. Keep in mind that there is a major amount of demand for crude oil, and we had also seen a lack of production during the pandemic, so therefore we have a bit of a “perfect storm” for higher pricing as the economies around the world continue to reopen, and of course demand surges for energy. We are not only seen this in the WTI market, but we are seeing it in the Brent market, natural gas markets, and quite frankly even the coal markets. In other words, anything energy related is going to continue to have quite a bit of momentum attached to it. With that in mind, I think this continues to be a “buy on the dips” scenario, and therefore I am not looking for selling opportunities. Longer-term, I do think that we break above the $85 level and go looking towards the $90 level. Looking at this chart, the market has been very bullish, and should continue to be so as we are simply grinding away in a 45° angle, which is a very healthy amount of momentum overall. It is not until we break down below the 50 day EMA that I would consider shorting this market.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTICO/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD and AUD/USD on watch for me today.WTICO/USD: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms, or it impulses down still further, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/JPY: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above the upper trend line of our most recent piece of structure and it does so correctively, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/NZD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our lower rayline and it does so correctively, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. AUD/USD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight one hour flag and then I'll be looking to get short either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by StewySongs
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fluctuated on Tuesday as it sits just above the $80 level. When you get a strong move to the upside like we have had, the market will either go sideways to digest its gains or pull back. At this point, it looks like we are going to settle on grinding sideways and digesting the previous move. If we were to turn around and break down from here, there are multiple areas where I would anticipate seeing support, especially at the $75 level. That being said, the market also sees the $77.50 level as a potential buying opportunity as well. Crude oil continues to be very tight as far as supply is concerned, so I have no interest in trying to get too cute and short this market. The market is very likely to go much higher over the longer term, so I think it is simply a matter of waiting for an opportunity to get long of crude oil yet again. In fact, it is likely that we would see plenty of opportunities going forward, and most people believe that crude oil is going to go looking towards the $85 level. The candlestick for the day is very indecisive, and I think that is likely to be how we behave between now and the end of the week. If we broke above the top of the shooting star for Monday, then I think it would open up a move towards the $85 level rather quickly. The market will almost certainly see an increase in momentum at that point, so I believe that it is probably going to be a signal to get somewhat aggressive to the upside. Again, I do not see any situation in which I would be a seller, because the market is tight from a supply standpoint and should continue to be so for the foreseeable future. In fact, when you look at the futures curve, it is not until late next year when you start to see prices drop back down towards the $60. I think this is going to continue to be an issue going forward, so we need to pay close attention to some type of “blow off top”, but we are nowhere near seeing that right now.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by SmoothJB
WTICO/USD on watch for me today.Good morning all. I hope you're having a fantastic week so far. So I'm currently still in my EUR/GBP trade (for the moment at least). The momentum never really kicked in to the upside as I'd hoped and then price retraced very aggressively in true EUR/GBP style. On the balance of probability I thought at this point that I'd probably be tagged out for a loss simply because of the momentum that had come in to the downside. However I also saw what had preceded this move as a completed three touch pattern and I know from my testing how after a completed three touch pattern price will sometimes scoop back down to retest the third touch and then the momentum will kick in in our forecasted direction and that's exactly what happened and one of the reasons I thought that this might happen is because of what happened the last time a three touch structure broke below a daily double bottom which I've replicated for you in my last post using the Bars Pattern tool. Granted it doesn't look identical to what's happened this time around because one piece of price action never looks identical to another, but hopefully this shows you how it's possible for us to trade raw price action without us paying any attention to the news and that's because patterns repeat themselves because human beings repeat themselves. So that's me marginally in profit on this trade with my stop loss now at break even. I may well be tagged out for break even soon, but EUR/GBP is notorious for pulling back violently before it continues in the direction that it was headed so let's see what happens. But this is why we as traders always need to remain neutral and open-minded so that our bias doesn't cloud our judgment. My forecast for today I've posted below. Have a great day! WTICO/USD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above the upper trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If price only pushes up to and ideally just above our upper rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll once again be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it but I'll be hiding my stop loss above our upper ascending trend line for extra protection. • If price pushes up impulsively to and ideally just above our upper rayline, then I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by StewySongs
1
WTICO/USD on watch for me today.Good morning all. I hope you're having a fantastic week so far. So I'm currently still in my EUR/GBP trade (for the moment at least). The momentum never really kicked in to the upside as I'd hoped and then price retraced very aggressively in true EUR/GBP style. On the balance of probability I thought at this point that I'd probably be tagged out for a loss simply because of the momentum that had come in to the downside. However I also saw what had preceded this move as a completed three touch pattern and I know from my testing how after a completed three touch pattern price will sometimes scoop back down to retest the third touch and then the momentum will kick in in our forecasted direction and that's exactly what happened and one of the reasons I thought that this might happen is because of what happened the last time a three touch structure broke below a daily double bottom which I've replicated for you using the Bars Pattern tool. Granted it doesn't look identical to what's happened this time around because one piece of price action never looks identical to another, but hopefully this shows you how it's possible for us to trade raw price action without us paying any attention to the news and that's because patterns repeat themselves because human beings repeat themselves. So that's me marginally in profit on this trade with my stop loss now at break even. I may well be tagged out for break even soon, but EUR/GBP is notorious for pulling back violently before it continues in the direction that it was headed so let's see what happens. But this is why we as traders always need to remain neutral and open-minded so that our bias doesn't cloud our judgment. My forecast for today I've posted below. Have a great day! WTICO/USD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above the upper trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If price only pushes up to and ideally just above our upper rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll once again be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it but I'll be hiding my stop loss above our upper ascending trend line for extra protection. • If price pushes up impulsively to and ideally just above our upper rayline, then I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Short
by StewySongs