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US OIL / WTI Analysis 13Oct2023Over the last few weeks, the price of oil has experienced a noticeable decline. Upon closer inspection, this trend appears to be the result of a series of corrections from the previously bullish market. Currently, there is speculation surrounding the possibility of Wave (C) occurring, which is being analyzed through the addition of Fibo Expansion. It is predicted that the price will likely move towards the 76 area, which intersects with Fibo 0.786 and the SND area. This level of detail provides a more comprehensive understanding of the current market trends and the anticipated future movements of oil prices.
TVC:USOIL
by Hokusai_FX
Crude Oil (CL) Gap Fill LongWhile it's unclear whether crude, which has experienced large moves recently on account of the developing conflict between Israel-Hamas, wants to trade higher or lower over the longer-term, we’re looking to take near-term longs after filling the downside futures gap formed 10/6. We’re only showing down to a 30-minute chart here, but there are some smaller supply/sell zones @ ~84.25-84.75, which could be used for initial profit targets. If the trade works for a bounce, you can also consider applying mechanical targets @ 1:1, 2:1, 3:1, etc. Regarding an exact entry price and stop loss placement, the gap fill demand zone is a bit messy. The closing price of the gap itself, technically, is 82.81, so ideally we’d see CL trade to that #. However, markets aren’t always THAT precise, so it could put in a low at a slightly higher price. Furthermore, stop placement really depends on the timeframe used. The “distal” (lower bound) line of the daily demand/buy zone is 81.50, so if you can afford the risk, a physical stop could be placed below (never align your stops exactly w/ a zone’s range + don’t use whole numbers/quarters). More conservative placement could be slightly below 81.71 or 82.31, but there’s a higher chance you’ll be stopped out; depending on account/position size and risk tolerance, you can always deploy a “small loss, reenter” strategy. If you’re nimble enough, consider using a micro timeframe (single-digit minute, tick, or volume-based chart) to ID a trend reversal signal (higher high, higher low) before entering. If CL violates recently formed daily demand (82.81-81.50), be aware that there are “bear trap” areas waiting just beneath. Entries within the corrective segment of the uptrend that began in late-June are valid until prices breech the 77.59 pivot. As always, feel free to provide feedback and/or ask questions. Good luck, be smart, and enjoy the journey! Jon @ LionHart Trading
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
Crude oil fluctuates today The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has killed more than 1,600 people! Crude oil rose more than 4% and may continue to rise in the future. After the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it was in a range, with the lowest of 84.6 and the highest of 87.2 that day. The daily line closed at 86.3. From the daily line, oil prices will continue to rise. The top continues to pay attention to the breakthrough of 87. On the four-hour line, the Bollinger Track is parallel. , showing a volatile upward trend, the hourly line, the Bollinger Band narrowed in parallel, and oil prices will remain range-bound in the short term. In summary, intraday operations are dominated by shocks, let’s first look at the 84-88 range.
TVC:USOILLong
by Jerome-Leon
WTI Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis + Trading Plan WTI Crude Snaps Two-Day Slump Amid Shifting Global Dynamics and Weaker USD The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil benchmark showed signs of resilience, bouncing back from a two-day decline to reach $82.85 per barrel, marking a 0.40% gain. This uptick came as the US Dollar (USD) experienced a retreat, ending its 12-week rally. While robust US job growth figures impressed with a 336,000 rise, hints of a potential pause on rate hikes by Federal Reserve officials added an element of uncertainty. Russia's decision to lift its diesel export ban and a dip in US oil rigs further complicated WTI's supply-demand dynamics. WTI Benefits from USD Weakness and Russian Supply Shifts At the time of writing, WTI was trading at $82.85 per barrel, with modest gains of 0.40%. The resurgence in oil prices was attributed to the broader weakness in the US Dollar (USD). USD buyers booked profits ahead of the weekend, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to post weekly losses, ending its 12-week rally. While recent US economic data was supportive of the US Dollar, the overextended uptrend indicated a potential mean reversion. Notably, US job growth in September soared by 336,000, a figure that exceeded estimates and the previous month's data. Federal Reserve officials have remained relatively reserved in response to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could justify the need for higher interest rates. However, San Francisco's Fed President Mary Daly suggested that the recent increase in Treasury yields might already be addressing some of the Fed's concerns. She noted, "The recent rise in Treasury yields is doing some of the work for the Fed, and if that doesn't reverse and inflation continues to cool, the Fed can leave rates on hold." Russia's Move Eases Supply Concerns Russia played a crucial role in providing some relief to oil prices as it lifted its ban on diesel exports, particularly for supplies delivered to ports via pipelines. This decision had a cushioning effect on WTI's upward movement, as it introduced a potential increase in supply. On the front of oil data, the number of US oil rigs decreased by five to reach 497 during the week, marking the lowest level seen since February 2022. This development, reported by the energy services firm Baker Hughes, added to the evolving dynamics in the oil market. As WTI navigates a complex landscape of supply dynamics, global economic headwinds, and shifting USD trends, the oil market remains a focal point for investors and analysts alike. The balance between supply and demand, coupled with external factors like currency movements, will continue to influence WTI's price trajectory in the near future. Our preference Short positions below 91.30 with targets at 77.50 & 74.00 in extension. When the price Will reach the 74.00 Extension target , than : Go Long.
TVC:USOIL
by FOREXN1
12
Dirty practices of corporate forecasts portrayed in the mediaOn Tuesday, we touched on the subject of corporate forecasts in the oil market portrayed in the media. In fact, we remarked how the recent announcements of ultra-bullish forecasts were very reminiscent of the 2022 oil market top and that we were pretty skeptical about the rally's sustainability (though we warned about this on a different platform three weeks sooner). Fast forward to today, and we can see that oil is down from nearly $95 a week ago to less than $84 today (down more than 12%). With this price action following recent upgrades for the oil price by various financial entities, we would like to point out a few similar news articles in the past, which often preceded the trend reversal to the opposite direction of the forecast. While we can only speculate whether it is intentional or not, we have seen these practices taking place for years, with big players coming to tell retail investors to buy near the market top or sell near the market bottom. The following presentation aims to advocate that one should always do their own research rather than rely on the opinion of others whose true intent or trading strategy is unknown. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows some of JP Morgan’s forecasts in the past year or so, written as articles published by various media outlets (keep in mind that we are not showing all of the forecasts; there were some that were actually fulfilled). Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays more corporate forecasts from JP Morgan. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish) Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
20
Crude Oil (WTI)This looks like it is poised to head back into a well established $70-$80 range (and then some!). Anticipated long-term USD strength, as well as extended Global economic weakness bodes well for an enduring price weakness outlook. Technically, Crude is at a major pivot, both, at the top of a rising daily channel, as well as at the top of a descending weekly channel trend line, resulting in a significant confluence region - both of those having price-negative connotation. The Daily (main signal); SHORT on any reversal! ... and the 240 min. (secondary signal);
NYMEX:CL1!
by Nemo_Confidat
2
Oil (CL) Aggro/Oversold Fade BUYQuick take/analysis, but consider scooping some low-risk crude contracts here (break above 84.84). Better demand zones are lower, but we've had a sizable downdraft into buy areas + are testing a key support/resistance area (~84-85), so those traders may be at our backs. The US dollar has finally taken a pause at the supply zone we ID’d in posts from earlier this week/last week, so that may help commodity, including CL, longs. Keep this one a tight leash; the bounce we’ve had thus far has been tepid, a micro timeframe higher high/higher low hasn’t yet been put in , and daily/weekly “demand” is lower still (low-80s/upper-70s). That said, CL is certainly a trade to put on your radar. Given the technical structure of the recent selloff, consider taking any profits at 1:1, then 86, 87, and 88+. Again, better buys are lower, but start paying attention/stalking longs as remaining profit margin for short sellers is a lot smaller than it was at the beginning of the week (though there is still some downside risk)! Happy trading! Jon @ LionHart Trading
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
Crude oil returns to 100 The latest consolidation in oil prices appears to be over, with both Brent and WTI posting solid gains. There are currently no signs of increased supply from major producers, and economic data continues to support the idea of more growth. Crude oil has now reached 95.04, which has exceeded our expectation of 93.5. Under the current market conditions, crude oil will slowly rise to 100. Now the trading strategy is pulling back and rising slowly. The range of 93.5-94.8 continues to rise.
VANTAGE:CL-OILLong
by Anthony-Ryan
4
WTI Bullish OutlookSince March 2020, crude oil prices have been on the rise with simple Fibonacci 38.2% pull backs along the way ... BUT nothing appears to be able to stop what's coming next. Per barrel is currently hovering around $90 but the gas pumps and tempers will exceed the charts as we move into mid-2024 on the heels of the 2024 election. Also included the Elliott waves 1 thru 5 showing the 38.2% retraces with the mid wave showing a perfect 61.8% retrace of it's prior price action. There's no guarantee that the 1.618% extension will occur so the 1.414% at the $180 price point appears to be more probable. NFA DYOR ... comments welcome.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by kerdirks
2
WTI prints key reversal day ahead of FOMCWhilst we retain our view that oil prices could be headed for $100 further out, the trend seems to have hit a speed bump over the near-term. WTI broke above $90 with ease yet faltered around $95 with a shooting car candle with high volume (which makes it a potential key reversal day). A bearish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2) after it reached overbought. With the potential for the Fed to be more hawkish than expected, it could provide the catalyst for a pullback on WTI. A break below $90 confirms the near-term reversal is underway, with $87 making an initial target around the volume node from its preceding leg higher. $85 could also provide support around the August highs, which might tempt dip buyers more focussed on the fundamentals currently supporting higher oil prices.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
1
Crude oil in short supply The supply side of the global oil market continues to reduce production, and oil prices will continue to rise in the short term. Russia's fuel export ban announced last week has raised supply concerns and demand woes from future interest rate hikes. In the current context of the crude oil market, what needs attention is that once the Federal Reserve misjudges the U.S. economy, superimposes a rebound in inflation, and excessively raises interest rates, it may suppress crude oil prices. (The strength of the US dollar index has suppressed the prices of gold and crude oil) The overall trend of crude oil was very weak yesterday. After a slow rise during the day, it did not continue, but the US market fell sharply. The RSI technical indicator is bullish. Trading in the 89.5-91.5 range.
VANTAGE:CL-OILLong
by Anthony-Ryan
WTI trade analysis Through the analysis of the hourly chart of crude oil, we know that the last trading day first rose, then fell and then rose again, forming a narrow concussion trend. Since crude oil rose from highs and fell back, it has been in the midst of a concussive adjustment. Last Friday, it was said that an adjustment is imminent. Once the heavy volume breaks through and stands firm at the 91.00 line, it will continue to fluctuate upward. In the early stage, the main bull funds intervened in the weak area at a high level and the market fluctuated all the way down. Currently, the main bull funds continue to flow in and there are signs of strength, indicating that the market is more likely to rise further. The short-term market continues to fluctuate and break through upwards based on the moving average system. In terms of operation, we continue to go high, low and long, focusing on going long on dips.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Jerome-Leon
WTI- The ideal price to buy for 100 targetThe month of September came with a very important break for WTI Oil, the rise above 85 figure, a price that kept WTI in a range since December last year. As was usually the case, after the break, the price accelerated to the upside and to the next important 92.50-93.00 zone resistance. Looking at the posted chart we can see that since July, the trend for Oil is strongly up and a continuation is to be expected. At this moment, the price is in a correction and this drop could offer traders a good opportunity to join the trend at better prices. Technically, the old congestion under 87 and above 85 (yellow square) should offer support and a good zone to buy. A reversal from this zone and back to 93 could lead to a break above the recent high and in this case, the road is clear for a test of 100 important psychological level. The structure is strongly bullish as long as the price is above the old resistance at 83
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by Mihai_Iacob
Crude oil fluctuates at high levels The supply side of the global oil market continues to reduce production, and oil prices continue to rise in the short term. A ban on fuel exports announced in Russia last week raised supply concerns and demand woes from future interest rate hikes. In the current context of the crude oil market, we need to pay attention to the fact that once the Federal Reserve misjudges the U.S. economy, superimposes a rebound in inflation, and excessively raises interest rates, it may suppress crude oil prices. The price of crude oil first rose last week and then adjusted to 90.55. It has closed positive for three consecutive weeks, and the long-term upward trend of crude oil is obvious. In the short term, crude oil is bullish when it is above 90.0 and bearish when it is below 90. The RSI technical indicator is bullish. The main transactions are range trading.
VANTAGE:CL-OILLong
by Anthony-Ryan
Waiting for the bulls’ counterattack Oil prices fell back below the 10-day moving average, but the market is still bullish. The main reasons for the fall in crude oil prices may include the fact that the Saudi energy minister defended the production cut and claimed that extending the production cut was not to push up oil prices; the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. If the support level of crude oil does not break 87.6 and the resistance level does not break 90, it will continue to rise slowly in range trading.
VANTAGE:CL-OILLong
by Anthony-Ryan