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WTI breaks out ahead of US inflation dataWe suspect volatility may be on the quiet side with a US inflation report looming, but this provides the opportunity for markets to consolidate and traders plan trades. Should we see the pace of inflation to continue slowing, it could strengthen oil prices for two basic reasons. 1 - A weaker US dollar, as traders bring forward rate cut bets / solidifies bets of 5.25% peak rate 2 - Reduces the odds of a recession and increases oil demand expectations The softer inflation is, the stronger the bullish reaction for oil could be expected. - WTI futures closed above trend resistance following a bull-flag breakout, which was accompanied by positive-delta volume during the rally to recent highs. - Prices are now consolidating, but we'd welcome a pullback towards $73 to buy dips in anticipation of a breakout above $74. - Initial target is $76 (near the upper daily ADR band) - A move to (and beyond) $77 could be on the cards if we're treated to a weaker-than-expected inflation report - The bias remains bullish above $72.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
HOW TO TRADE BCO/WTI INTRADAY(VERY EASY) ?Jut keep it simplehis is one of the simplest trending strategies I use for day trading, and also one of the most effective. For this, it has been given the catchy name: Day Trade Trending Strategy. Using a one-minute chart the price will often make a larger move, have a very simple pullback, and then begin to move in the trending direction again. The strategy attempts to capitalize on that. Pullbacks aren’t always this simple, therefore, this strategy is best used in conjunction with the consolidation breakout method and the engulfing candle method (which this method is similar to). The strategy utilizes the trend to make a profit and also keeps me out of the market when the market isn’t trending. Before I begin, I cannot stress enough the importance of patience when employing the strategy. After you’ve exhibited patience, I am cannot stress enough the importance of restraint in not continuing to use the strategy once the window has closed. Like a fighter honing his striking skills, a strike is only effective if delivered at the exactly the right time. Too early, or too late, and the strike is not as effective. Wait for opportunities, then pounce…that’s how to trade the financial markets. Day Trade Trending Strategy – When and How The following day trading strategy provides roughly 4 to 8 trades per day, sometimes a bit more and sometimes a bit less. The main waves (trends) of the day are traded, usually with two trades per major price wave. Even if not taking trades using this method, it provides an overall context for the movements throughout the day, giving feedback and confirmation for many other strategies or signals which may arise. When day trading stocks or forex I use a 1-minute chart and a Level II (not required for forex). The Level II is only used if the volume in a stock is bit low and I need to watch for when liquidity is available. If the stock has lots of volume (plenty of shares at every price level) then there is no need for a Level II, just use the chart. Some days will turn out to be ranging days. If this case, no trades will be triggered, or very few, since intraday swing highs/lows will not be broken, thus no trend is present. Use patience and restraint. Only trade what the market actually provides. One of the most common problems new traders have is taking a trade too early and trying to get a better a price, assuming a trade will trigger in the near future. This is a big mistake. Only take a trade once the actual trade trigger (discussed a bit later) actually occurs. As alluded to prior, another mistake is waiting too long after a trade trigger has occurred. This too is detrimental to profits. Trades are taken at the exact moment of the trade trigger or not at all. Don’t start using this strategy until about 30 minutes into the trading day. I have other strategies I use during the first half hour, such as the Truncated Price Swing Strategy. We can now draw our downward trendline because we have broken lows and eventually we want to go short. We then wait for a pullback towards the trendline Please note, the trendline is only a visual and really has no significance to me. What matters, in this case, is that all the future swing highs in this move stay below the most recent swing high and new lows are created. As long as that happens, it is a downtrend. The opposite applies to an uptrend. Enter short when the pullback is potentially ending, signaled by the price dropping back below the low of a green bar or cluster of bars near the trendline (doesn’t need to be exactly at trendline). Day Trading Trending Strategy NOTES: I am only taking trades in the trending direction. I am waiting for a pullback and then only entering once the price starts moving in the trending direction again. This takes skills, as it is a somewhat subjective form of analysis and trading. The exact level of the trendline, if used, is not important. It is just a visual aid. Rather, understand that pullbacks in a downtrend can go almost all the way to the recent swing high in that downtrend, but should not exceed it (opposite for uptrend). As a pullback is occurring I am looking for any sort of shift which indicates a move back in the direction of the current primary trend. If there is any question as to the current trend, I do not trade this strategy. SPY is used for these trade examples, but the method can be applied to any stock or forex pair. Other stocks to consider for day trading each week are discussed on the Day Trading Stock Picks page. If the market is pretty close to my profit target and starts to pull away from the target, I exit. I am not going to risk giving up a bunch of profit for a couple cents. The target, which can be estimated before the trade occurs, needs to be realistically achievable based on the size of the recent price waves. If it the target will require the price have a much bigger move than it has been producing that day, the trade is skipped.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by DaveBrascoFX
BCO/WTI HEAVY SHORT Speculators cut oil long to pre-covid loWSWeekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet week where a continued improvement in risk appetite drove stocks higher while softening the dollar. Some commodity positions, with crude oil the major exceptions, showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling his summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet summer holiday impacted week where stocks traded higher ahead of last week’s CPI and PPI print after better than expected economic data helped reduce US recession fears while the market was looking for inflation to roll over. The dollar traded a tad softer, bond yields firmed up while commodities showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling. Adviser To Iranian Negotiating Delegation: The Chances Of Reaching A Nuclear Agreement Are Very Great ajel.sa Commodities Hedge funds were net buyers for a second week with demand concentrated in metals and agriculture while the energy sector saw continued selling. Overall the net long across 24 major commodity futures rose for a second week after recently hitting a two-year low. Buying was concentrated in gold, platinum, corn and livestock with crude oil and wheat being to most notable contracts seeing net selling. Energy: Speculators responded to continued crude oil weakness by cutting bullish bets in WTI and Brent crude by a combined 14% to a pre-Covid low at 304.5k lots. The reductions were primarily driven by long liquidation in both contracts following a demand fear driven breakdown in prices. Gas oil and gasoline longs were also reduced. Metals: Buying of metals extended to a second week led by gold which saw a 90% jump in the net long to 58.2k lots. Overall, net short positions were maintained in silver, platinum and copper with the latter seing a small amount of fresh selling due to profit taking on recently established longs. Agriculture: Grains were mixed with corn and soybeans seeing continued buying ahead of Friday's WASDE report while the CBOT corn net short jumped 36% to 20k lotsand the Kansas net long was cut to a two-year low. The total grain long rose for second week having stabilised around 300k lots having collapse from a near record 800k lot on April 22. Soft commodities saw elevated short positions in sugar and cocoa being maintained with price gains in coffee and not least cotton supporting a small increase in their respective net longs. This before Friday's surge in cotton which left it up 13% on the week after the US Department of Agriculture slashed the US crop forecast by 19% to a 12-year low. Driven by a high level of abandonment of fields in the drought-stricken Southwest. Forex In the week to August 9 when the dollar traded close to unchanged against a basket of major currencies, speculators increased to three the number of weeks of continued dollar selling. The pace of selling even accelerated to the highest since January after the gross long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar Index was slashed by 20% to $17.4 billion, a nine week low. Most notable selling of the greenback was seen against GBP and JPY followed by EUR and CHF. The Japanese yen, under pressure for months as yield differentials to the dollar widened saw its net short being cut by 22% to a 17-month low. MY WTI BCO STRATEY: HEAVY SHORT SELLING TARET:.... read in my member blog
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
5
USOIL 2/MAY/2023It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve, which is responsible for managing the US's monetary policy, will raise interest rates again. This could potentially cause the US economy to slow down and enter a recession later this year. In recent weeks, concerns about a banking crisis have affected the oil market. The US government took over First Republic Bank, and JPMorgan purchased most of its assets, causing alarm as three other US banks have previously collapsed: Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank. If more banks encounter difficulties, it may lead to a banking crisis that could cause a recession and a decrease in oil demand. Additionally, voluntary production cuts of about 1.16 million barrels per day by OPEC+ countries, including Russia, will take effect in May, impacting oil prices. On a positive note, the US's manufacturing industry is improving, and with rising demand and employment, this has slightly boosted oil prices.
TVC:USOILShort
by DNP-FX
2
USOIL set for a ride!Instrument : WTI Possible direction : Bullish Technical Analysis : Early this month WTI opened with a gap and was in consolidation and finally price has filled that gap and bounced from the long term support zone. As there is strong illiquidity grab and filling out of gab, WTI may start its uptrend and may continue to rise. Upon retest of the previous resistance as support a buy trade is high probable. Possible trade recommendation : Bullish as per sketch. Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ForexWizard01
2
WTI may bounce off the support!!Instruments : WTI Possible direction : Bullish Technical Analysis : Early this month WTI opened with big gap up and signaling possible trend change. After long consolidation, WTI filled the gap and currently bouncing off the support level. It is highly likely that WTI may change trend and continue to uprise. A bullish trade is high probable. Possible trade recommendation : Bullish as per sketch. Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ForexWizard01
USOIL 10 Dec 22The timeline of China’s economic rebound frames the demand outlook in the crude markets, which remain rattled by concerns over broader global appetite for transport fuels amid mounting inflation rates and recessionary signals. On the supply side, energy markets await further clarity on the Russian production impact of an EU ban that came in force on Dec. 5. Alongside it’s implementation was a program by the G-7 largest global economies that seeks to facilitate shipping and transport services for non-G7 Russian purchases transacted under a price cap. The Brent crude contract for February delivery was trading at $76.13 per barrel at 11:55 a.m. London time Friday morning, down by 2 cents from the Dec. 8 settlement. The front-month Nymex WTI contract was at $71.79 a barrel, adding 33 cents from Thursday’s close price. source: CNBC . . . . . . 🧅Disclaimer :There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. This is Not Financial Advice 🧅JUST AN OPINION OF THE ONION.🧅
TVC:USOIL
by MLGONION
USOIL 82.64 +0.3% DAILY BREAKDOWN FOR THE WEEKHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GREAT WEEKEND. HERE'S A LOOK AT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT ON THE GOLD IN THE COMING WEEK. USOIL COULD CONTINUE THE BULLISH RALLY TO CONTINUE THE HKEX:80 PER BARREL AND HOLD ABOVE. * Looking for some correction to fill some imbalances before this happens * Looking for the buy side liquidity sweep to confirm some bearish bias. * Should this happen looking for PD ARRAYS to enter or change my bias on the OIL. - Should this play out -targeting the unmitigated FVG below * If we break above and close above the bearish OB trade is invalidated. - TARGET would be the FVG that is unmitigated before continuing to the upside. lets see how it goes. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
TVC:USOILShort
by PULEMokhothu
WTI ($USOIL): Short Term Bullish SetupAfter OPEC's announcement to cut production, $WTI soared after the open. Now, from a technical point of view it should be correct to try again to take long positions on a potential pullback. STRATEGY: Try to take a long position by splitting the position, 50% around $78 and 50% around $75. Stop loss below $71 (hourly close). Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
WTI breaks out of consolidation, $90 up next?WTI broke out of consolidation and closed above its 200-day EMA and resistance zone. The OBV (on balance indicator) confirmed the breakout with a move to a new cycle high, and volumes (whilst below average) are turning higher to show buyers stepping back in. Furthermore, we saw a gap ahead of the consolidation above HKEX:79 , although using classic definitions it doesn't quite fit into 'breakaway' or 'runaway' gap category. Regardless, we've seen a 30% rally from the March low with a gap along the way, OPEC+ cut oil production, and the trend points higher. With that said, the 200-day MA is capping as resistance, so bulls may want to wait for a break (or daily close) above the level. But overall, the risks appear skewed to the upside. - The bias remains bullish above 79 and an initial move to 90, then the 93.60 highs - Wednesday's low could be used for tighter risk management
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Crude oil extends rally to test 200 MAIn response to a weaker headline US inflation print of 5%, energy and metal prices rose as the dollar dropped. While gold and silver have since come off their earlier highs, copper has managed to push higher. But it is crude oil that is catching the attention with both contracts up more than 2% each. Why are oil prices rising? Well, the biggest reason is from the supply side of the equation, as it often is when it come to oil prices. Following the OPEC’s surprise decision last weekend to cut oil production unexpectedly by nearly 1.7 million barrels per day, this has so far had the intended impact in keeping oil prices supported. After a week-long consolidation near the HKEX:80 level, oil prices have started move higher this week, with WTI climbing above HKEX:83 today. Crude oil has also been supported in part because of the ongoing weakness in US dollar, optimism about Chinese pent-up demand, and the recent upsurge in other commodity prices like gold and silver. The weaker US CPI print has raised doubts over whether the Fed will now hike rates at all next month, after a 25bp hike was priced in with a 75% probability for the May 3 FOMC meeting. Now, that probability has fallen to around 66%, suggesting investors who are feeling that the Fed is near the end of the hiking cycle will feel even more comfortable now. Falling interest rate expectations is reducing recession concerns and helping to support buck-denominated asset prices at the same time. Improving Eurozone economy Crude oil is also finding support because of an improving European economy. While we haven’t had much European data this week, the closely watched Sentix Investor Confidence, which came out on Tuesday, improved more than expected to -8.7 from -11.1, reflecting the recent improvement in Eurozone data. Indeed, last week, we saw German industrial production jumped 2.0% month-over-month in February, easily beating the 0.1% increase forecast and adds to the 3.7% gain in January. In addition, we saw German factory orders surged 4.8% MoM, while the eurozone composite PMI rose to a 10-month high. As result of the improvement in data, Germany is now expected to avoid a recession. Indeed, a couple of German economic institutes now think the Eurozone’s largest economy will grow this year. The German economic recovery has been supported by the reopening of China and strong activity in the automotive sector. Indeed, we saw German exports surge higher in February while imports also rose. More significantly, the German trade surplus has been noticeably higher at the start of this year compared to Q4. The improving German economy and receding concerns over an energy crisis is why the German DAX index has been able to outperform its Wall Street peers so far this year, and why the EUR/USD has been able to get close to the 1.10 handle. But it is not just Germany. A few other Eurozone countries have also been doing relatively well, not least Spain, where the services sector has been going from strength to strength. WTI’s breakaway gap As mentioned in our previous update, WTI was unlikely to fill that big gap it had formed when the OPEC surprised the market with its decision. It had the characteristics of a breakaway gap. After 1 whole week of consolidation around the key HKEX:80 level, WTI never looked like it wanted to close that gap. This gave traders the confidence that they need that the market wants to push higher, and so they have started to bid oil priced higher again. From here, WTI could go to reach $85.00 and eventually even $90.00. In the short-term, I wouldn’t rule out a dip back towards broken resistance range between $81.00 to $81.80ish, given that it is testing its 200-day average. This $81.00 to $81.80 area is now going to be the most important support zone to watch. For as long as the bulls hold their ground here, the path of least resistance would remain to the upside. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by FOREXcom
WTI falters around $70Oil prices fell to a 15-month low as investors fretted over the potential for a financial meltdown. Whilst that is yet to fully materialise (or if it does at all), investors remain a little on edge - with news of the latest Hindenburg report accusing Block (SQ) of fraudulent activity not likely to quell fears. WTI has manged to lift itself from its 15-month lows, yet volumes declined over this period to suggest the move was corrective. A bearish Pinbar also formed, which not only failed to test the $72.46 breakout level but also closed back below $70 and the December low. Also note that a bullish hammer has formed on the US dollar index (DXY). - We're now waiting for a break of Wednesday's low to assume bearish continuation, with target zones made up of Fibonacci expansions and round numbers residing around $65 and $60 in focus. - The bias remains bearish below $72.46, although yesterday's high can also be used if a tighter approach to risk management is preferred.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex