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USOIL May Target 103 At Some PointUSOIL May Target 103 At Some Point. An M pattern has been completed but because the price jumped sooner than expected from 76.48, this FCP zone is left with less strength. Because of that the market is finding it hard to make a good bullish move and is simply consolidating. Right now it is in a consolidation phase but has started to show a bullish structure. If this structure stays intact, USOIL can start to move higher in time. There is a huge gap left above 100 around 103 level as we have a double top (liquidity area) around 93. USOIL at some point in time can target this leftover gap. Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:USOILLong
by vikinsa
Be prepared for a hawkish-than-expected Fed this week?Happy New Year of Rabbit! We will have a busy week. In addition to companies keep reporting result (Four of the FANNG companies will report earnings this week), other major events include a decisive Fed meeting, ECB meeting, BOE meeting, US employment data and OPEC+ meeting. Everyone’s focus will be on Fed meeting. Market fully expects a 25bp rise this week, and Fed might bow to market pressure and adapt a slower hiking pace. Having said that, the risk is Fed might signal there will be more interest rate hikes before the rate reach above 5%, rather than Fed Watch pricing in a pause at 4.75%. There is no doubt inflation is slowing down and the decelerating pace is pretty impressive, but there is still a big gap from the 2% target. Although there was some layoff news, they mainly concentrated on the sectors/companies that expanded rapidly during pandemic and now they are just downsizing to pre-covid level. From the initial jobless claims number, we can see the labour market stayed strong that might keep service inflation elevated. On Friday’s employment report, market expects hourly earnings will grow 4.3% yoy in January and unemployment rate inch up to 3.6%, that might force Fed to hike rate more than expected. The reopen of China economy might also pose risk to higher inflation. Cyclical commodity price such as copper and crude oil moved higher, offsetting the demand destruction concern resulted from a potential global recession. NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures broke the downtrend, a further breakthrough above USD82.64 might confirm a formation of uptrend, and could test USD93.64(Q4 double top high) and then USD96.97 (50% retracement). Any further expansionary fiscal policy targeting property or infrastructure sector in China, could also push the commodities price higher and thus the inflation. The supply chain diversification will structurally push up inflation. As the world factory, supply chain in China is very mature and cost effective, any shift of production line to other countries likely associated with higher cost. Idle capacity in China, together with new investment on supply chain in different countries, will permanently push the production cost higher. Globalization helped contain inflation, and the reverse will drive it up. There is risk the inflation will hover around 4% and refuse to go down further, that might put Fed in a difficult situation and diminishing any hope there will be an interest cut this year. ECB and BOE are expected to hike rate by 50bp this week. This might prevent Fed from being too dovish. OPEC+ will have meeting this week and no policy change is expected. However, we need to monitor the risk of escalation of geopolitical tension in Ukraine, and how Russia responds to the price cap on refined products imposed by EU and G7 from Feb 5. Be prepared for some market volatility, and a hawkish-than-expected Fed this week. Happy Trading. Disclaimers Above information are for illustration only and there is no guarantee on the accuracy of the information. They should not be treated as investment recommendations or advices. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOTrading
AW WTI Crude Oil - The Definitive Conclusion For Oil Prices...In this video I go through the logical thinking process used from an AriasWave perspective. I have come to many conclusions about oil prices in the past, but I guess experience helps make my analysis better. The one thing that keeps coming to mind when analyzing charts lately are the effects of inflation. We live in an inflationary universe, and I believe everything that happens within it is a natural phenomenon. I also believe now is the time to really understand how to capitalize from the knowledge the waves give us. When hyperinflation really starts to kick in at some point in the not-so-distant future you want to be on top of your trading game. I believe there are still so many opportunities ahead of us before the secular bull markets begin. I will link the video mentioned in this idea below that talks about what I believe will happen in the Dow Jones. Commodities on the other hand will see significant increases by comparison due to the effects of geopolitics versus supply chain disruptions and globalization. I also believe that debt versus inflation will play a major role in driving up prices as central banks struggle to find a balance between the two by adjusting interest rates accordingly. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
TVC:USOIL
by AriasWave
beginning of 2023 will be bullish for oilFrom the previous analysis I analyzed as oil could bottom at 75 dollar. However it broke my resistant and stayed at 70 dollar point. Even the oil broke my resistant line. I kept my bullish analysis because it didn't show any major bearish pattern. I personally confirm that recent bearish move was just a fake one. I adjusted my bullish target to 90 dollar and I will re-analyze oil again when it reaches to my target. Double overselling term is showing and sustainable oil demand will push to higher price indeed.
TVC:USOILLong
by illuminating_trade
9
Is WTI Crude Set to ReboundIn this week’s case study, we analyse a long position on Micro WTI Crude Futures (February) with a potential target of $82.30/barrel and a stop loss at $67/barrel, yielding a reward to risk ratio of 1.15. Last week, we delivered a case study with a short position on WTI Crude Oil futures with entry at $77.80/barrel and exit at $73.65/barrel. This worked as planned with the target price being triggered within two days. Now with price trading at $74.10/barrel and strong support between $67-$72/barrel, this case study argues that this presents an interesting opportunity to enter into a long position in WTI Crude Oil futures. Bolstered by demand from China which is expected to recover, a long position in Crude Oil Futures provides us hedge in the medium-long term against limited downside risk. Replenishment of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (S PR) The Biden administration is reported to replenish its S PR between the price range of $67-$72/barrel. WTI Crude is currently trading in that price range which could trigger S PR replenishment. More than 200 million barrels has been drawn down to supplement the demand for US crude oil amid high international prices. However, it is worth noting that according to the US Department of Energy, there are no active purchase offers yet. China Easing COVID Curbs Last week, China announced the most significant relaxation of its COVID curbs since the pandemic first erupted three years ago. Rules covering quarantine times, movement of people, and lockdown as well as testing were eased in the country. Nevertheless, COVID cases in China remain high. Although official numbers have fallen to a monthly low, straining medical infrastructure points to high level of infected cases. China is the second largest consumer of Crude Oil in the world, although they have largely been buying Russian Crude Oil at a discount, as demand increases, it will likely spill over into purchases of international oil as well impacting prices of Crude Oil. Fed Rate Decision All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due on December 14th. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% probability of a 50-bps (0.5%) rate hike at this meeting, slowing from the record 75-bps rate hikes announced at previous four meetings. Over the past two weeks, economic data points to limited impact of Fed rate hikes leading to fears that the Fed may continue with 75-bps rate hike. Tanker Delays Over the past week, several tankers carrying Russian crude oil were halted at the Turkish strait due to confusion surrounding the G7’s imposed sanctions on Russian crude tanker insuranc e. As of Monday, this jam started to be cleared. However according to a Bloomberg report, some 12 tankers had still not submitted the necessary documents confirming insu rance liabilities. As these delays might take more time to resolve, this might positively impact demand for WTI Crude Oil. EIA Short Term Energy Outlook The US Energy Information Administration (E IA) released its short-term energy outlook last week in which they stated that refinery utilization for 2023 was expected to remain at a five-year high. Although this will lead to lower prices for distillate and other petroleum products, it ensures high demand for WTI Crude leading to a strong price support. Technical Signals from the COT Report WTI Crude is currently trading at $70.67/barrel, which is right below its S1 support according to the Pivot indicator which stands at $71.48/barrel. The range of $67-72 provides strong support as mentioned before. Both RSI and Stochastic indicators point to oversold which could indicate a recovery in the short term. In the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from December 6th, we can see that money moved out of swap positions to directional positions. Long positions held by managed money increased sharply by 11.9%. Overall long position OI increased by 4.4%. Still, this was on par with the increase in short position OI which also increased by 4.4%. Short OI saw producer positions increase far more than long OI. Trade Setup CME’s NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude oil. They have a maintenance margin of $750 at the time of writing and provide a cost-efficient way of getting exposures to the movements in Crude Oil prices. Long Position on CME NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures – February 2023 Contract Entry: $74.10/barrel Take Profit Target 1: $85.00/barrel Take Profit Target 2: $82.30/barrel Stop Loss: $67.00/barrel Establishing a long position on Micro WTI Futures (February) with an entry price of $74.10/barrel with a potential take profit target of $82.3 could provide exposure to a recovery in a WTI crude prices. This would yield 109.3% returns or $820. A stop loss at $67.0/barrel could protect against a further downward move. This is placed at the lower end of the expected range of S PR replenishment which is expected to provide strong support. The stop loss, if triggered, would lead to a loss of $710 or 94.6%, providing a reward risk ratio of 1.15. Alternatively, holding the position until the second target of $85/barrel would yield $1,090 in profit or 145.3%. CME’s full-size NYMEX WTI futures provide exposure to 1,000 barrels of WTI crude with a maintenance margin of $7,300 at the time of writing and provide improved liquidity in case of larger positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
NYMEX:CL2!Long
by mintdotfinance
USOil/WTI Short overallhello everyone.. last 2 week we had good bull run for usoil... but as soon it reached 82 the price starts consolidating, like in 4hr tf the price test 82 several times.. however if we look at weekly tf the main resistance is around 84-85.. at this point the price can trick the seller... overall i think its a bear trap (still LH & LL).. the resistance trend line also make more sense at the 84-85 price area. look for a good pullback using high tf for better accuracy... currently the price could go up this week before it pulls back good luck
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by baigxy
WTI: CRUDE OIL TREND OUTLOOKLet's look to Wti. It moved up in the past weeks. But I think that trend is weakening and downside movement is possible soon. Because, Crude Oil is reaching to strong level - 83.83! What should we do in this case? 1. Place sell stop order at 81.52 2. First target is 76.98 3. Second target is 73.16 4. Stop Loss is necessary at 83.50 But if it will continue upward movement? Then, we need place buy stop order also: 1. Open buy stop at 83.65 2. Target is 86.98 3. Stop is 81.01 That's all for today. Let's wait and see what will be happen in next days. Good luck!
BLACKBULL:WTI
by Forexcues
1
Consumer savings decline, economy slows down, and EIA's forecastSince December 2022, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has been moving choppily between $70 and $83. Currently, one barrel trades near $77.50. We continue waiting on the sidelines for the market picture to clear. However, we are still unconvinced by bullish scenarios for oil, forecasting a return of $100 and above. That is because we already see a significant slowdown in economic activity around the globe and evaporating savings of consumers in the United States, both of which are likely to weigh on the oil demand in the coming months. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see USOIL break below $70 after some time. However, the U.S. administration might put a temporary floor for oil around that level due to its plans to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the lower range of that price tag. As a result, this makes a compelling case for the continuation of choppy price action in oil; interestingly, that coincides with the latest assessment of the EIA. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global petroleum production will increase by 1% (1.1 million b/d) in 2023. As for U.S. petroleum production, it sees an increase of 5% (1 million barrels per day). In addition to that, it expects OPEC's output to grow by 0.5% (160 000 barrels per day), and, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and war-related sanctions, the EIA expects Russia’s production to drop by more than 12% (from 10.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to only 9.5 million barrels per day) in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to stay relatively flat through the first half of 2023. After that, it expects the price to decline through the end of 2024. As a result, the agency foresees WTI crude oil to average $77 per barrel in 2023 and $72 per barrel in 2024. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. It also shows 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Yellow arrows indicate retracements toward these levels, which acted as corrections of the downtrend. We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA and whether it will halt the price rise in the future; if it fails (and the price breaks above it), it will bolster the bullish case for oil in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
7
WTI Bearish flag in PlayMonthly Chart : Prevailing macro sallow bearish channel in play. Weekly Chart : Breakout of weekly bullish channel in the corrective phase of the market structure. Daily Chart : Double top intermediate pattern formation within the bearish channel. 4H Chart : Asymmetric expanding mini triangle pattern, with impulse breakout of 1H chart bullish corrective structure. 1H Chart : Almost completed bearish flag, expecting break below 73.50 round number with anticipated zone of interest for tp goal at about 70.00 round number.
TVC:USOILShort
by VictigatorZM