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USOil/WTI Short overallhello everyone.. last 2 week we had good bull run for usoil... but as soon it reached 82 the price starts consolidating, like in 4hr tf the price test 82 several times.. however if we look at weekly tf the main resistance is around 84-85.. at this point the price can trick the seller... overall i think its a bear trap (still LH & LL).. the resistance trend line also make more sense at the 84-85 price area. look for a good pullback using high tf for better accuracy... currently the price could go up this week before it pulls back good luck
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by baigxy
WTI: CRUDE OIL TREND OUTLOOKLet's look to Wti. It moved up in the past weeks. But I think that trend is weakening and downside movement is possible soon. Because, Crude Oil is reaching to strong level - 83.83! What should we do in this case? 1. Place sell stop order at 81.52 2. First target is 76.98 3. Second target is 73.16 4. Stop Loss is necessary at 83.50 But if it will continue upward movement? Then, we need place buy stop order also: 1. Open buy stop at 83.65 2. Target is 86.98 3. Stop is 81.01 That's all for today. Let's wait and see what will be happen in next days. Good luck!
BLACKBULL:WTI
by Forexcues
1
Consumer savings decline, economy slows down, and EIA's forecastSince December 2022, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has been moving choppily between $70 and $83. Currently, one barrel trades near $77.50. We continue waiting on the sidelines for the market picture to clear. However, we are still unconvinced by bullish scenarios for oil, forecasting a return of $100 and above. That is because we already see a significant slowdown in economic activity around the globe and evaporating savings of consumers in the United States, both of which are likely to weigh on the oil demand in the coming months. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see USOIL break below $70 after some time. However, the U.S. administration might put a temporary floor for oil around that level due to its plans to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the lower range of that price tag. As a result, this makes a compelling case for the continuation of choppy price action in oil; interestingly, that coincides with the latest assessment of the EIA. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global petroleum production will increase by 1% (1.1 million b/d) in 2023. As for U.S. petroleum production, it sees an increase of 5% (1 million barrels per day). In addition to that, it expects OPEC's output to grow by 0.5% (160 000 barrels per day), and, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and war-related sanctions, the EIA expects Russia’s production to drop by more than 12% (from 10.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to only 9.5 million barrels per day) in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to stay relatively flat through the first half of 2023. After that, it expects the price to decline through the end of 2024. As a result, the agency foresees WTI crude oil to average $77 per barrel in 2023 and $72 per barrel in 2024. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. It also shows 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Yellow arrows indicate retracements toward these levels, which acted as corrections of the downtrend. We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA and whether it will halt the price rise in the future; if it fails (and the price breaks above it), it will bolster the bullish case for oil in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
7
WTI Bearish flag in PlayMonthly Chart : Prevailing macro sallow bearish channel in play. Weekly Chart : Breakout of weekly bullish channel in the corrective phase of the market structure. Daily Chart : Double top intermediate pattern formation within the bearish channel. 4H Chart : Asymmetric expanding mini triangle pattern, with impulse breakout of 1H chart bullish corrective structure. 1H Chart : Almost completed bearish flag, expecting break below 73.50 round number with anticipated zone of interest for tp goal at about 70.00 round number.
TVC:USOILShort
by VictigatorZM
WTI Lowered demandWe are finally seeing the afterburn effects of Bidens inflations situation start to implode on itself and so pricing has dropped massively due to lowered rates. THE WORST IS YET TO COME! There's a real chance that we may see a dramatic bearish move to below 50 potentially 45 for a brief time as we do not have the foundation or the backing to support the increases occurring. and with the increase of used cars on the market people are going to start buying again just not for a few more months maybe late summer 23. Refineries are allocating capital to do maintenance work so that they can make money around that same time. Either way, you can short this all week and get your money and wait.
TVC:USOILShort
by MANUELRUGGER91
Recession is poised to weigh on the oil demand and higher pricesSince our previous idea, USOIL broke above 80$ and halted its rise slightly below the 50-day SMA. After that, it faltered to 79$ handle where it currently trades. Meanwhile, we noticed bullish calls emerging all over the place. However, while we allow for the possibility of a further price increase, we do not think it will be as dramatic as many people forecast. At this point, we are very skeptical about the narrative claiming a retest of 100$ and continuation of the rally beyond this price level. That is because economic activity shows a significant decline in 2022. Furthermore, as if it was not enough, economic activity is poised to slump even more in 2023, with signs of a recession on the horizon. As a result, we expect the economic slowdown to weigh heavily on the oil demand. It would not surprise us to see the U.S. administration put more pressure on oil producers, prompting them to pump more oil out of the ground, especially if the prices continue to climb higher. In turn, that could offset some price increases and help to balance the market. Therefore, we are cautious and pay close attention to market developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement toward the 50-day SMA, which often coincides with a strong downtrend correction. In this case, the price failed to fully retrace and break above the 50-day SMA, which may hint at signs of exhaustion for the rally. Therefore, we raise our level of cautiousness. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
20
Recession concerns and a stronger USD sends WTI back below $80WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session. A bearish outside day formed which markets a double top around $81.20, daily volume was above average (and its highest in 14 days) which adds weigh to the bearish reversal candle. Also note that previously the market has reversed lower around the 100-day EMA, yet here it is trying to turn lower around the 50-day EMA (which itself is below the 100-day EMA). A bearish divergence also formed on RSI ahead of the double top, therefore the bias is for another dip lower. A break of the September low assumes bearish continuation, and next support resides around 72.50 – 73.40. In light of seeking to ‘remain nimble’, we prefer to stick to intraday timeframes in line with the daily bias. Commitment of traders (managed funds) We can see that net-long exposure has been ticking higher on WTI for managed funds, but this is due to shorts being covered and not new longs being initiated in recent weeks. Given the negative sentiment then it’s plausible to suspect some of those bears will now be returning. But if or when we see gross longs increase and gross shorts decrease, we would be more confident in calling a bottom in oil. We’re just not there yet.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
Leading Indicators - PPI (PPIACO) vs. Unemployment (UNRATE) I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets. I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil (WTISPLC) , & also with respect to the OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) — as this helps to pinpoint some of the historic baseline(s) for predicting the peak &/or trough in the business vs. market (financial) cycles. Here is the key for the attached chart(s): Top Chart Black Line (Unemployment Rate - UNRATE): *Black Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Trough Blue Line (Producer Price Index - PPIACO): *Blue Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Orange Line (WTI Spot Crude - WTISPLC): *Orange Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Bottom Chart OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): *Black Dashed Line* = Pre-Recession Indicator Peak Green Horizontal Dotted Line = Expansion Baseline (100) Orange Horizontal Dotted Line = Current Reading (98.62) Red Horizontal Dotted Line = Danger Zone (<97) Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Looking at the larger picture of both charts, you can see that typically in previous periods of Recession you would see this flow of the signals (first to peak/trough, last to peak/trough): Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) *Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO)* *Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC)* *Note* - As you can see PPIACO & WTISPLC are very closely correlated as demand peaks out, you then see a shift downward in WTISPLC as this is a signal of the topping of economic growth. Now let's dive close-up into each time period of recession, as we can see some linkages/similarities in the 1991, 2001, & 2009 recessions vs. the what is (likely) a 23' recession, depending how the economic , markets , & financial data plays out this upcoming year — potentially into 24'. 1991 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): July 1987 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Mar. 1989 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Oct. 1990 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 1990 2001 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Jan. 2000 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Apr. 2000 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 2000 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Jan. 2001 2009 Recession Timeline Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): May 2007 Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): June 2007 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2008 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): July 2008 2023(24) Recession Estimated? Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): May 2021 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): June 2022 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2022 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Sept. 2022 What do you think about this macro analysis? Have we potentially been in a recession in 22' — or are we moving closer to higher unemployment (UNRATE) in 23' as the macro/market conditions worsen, & the Federal Reserve's tighter monetary conditions (liquidity & credit) take their toll on the economy? Let me know what you think in the comments below! 👇🏼
FRED:UNRATEShort
by kylemusserco
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailThis is a follow-up video to my previous analysis where we made over 1,000 pips in profit (see link below for reference purposes). Crude oil prices witnessed significant gains to close last week's trading session with approximately 8% growth as Moscow said it may cut oil production to offset price caps on Russian crude imposed by the G7 nations and the European Union. In the coming week, the chances of subdued trading activities are very likely and this might not be unconnected to the hangover of the holidays thereby reducing the liquidity in the market. In this video, we took a look at the chart from a technical standpoint where the $80 level will be serving as a major determinant of price movement for the new week. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
FX:USOILSPOT
by darcsherry
USOIL 70The chart shows the downtrend. After breaking for the second time the support of 78, it will test 74. We will see if it bounces towards 85 or we go to 70 Technical analysis: daily time frame The RSI is bearish . DISCLAIMER: This review is not intended to encourage the buying or selling of any particular security. Furthermore, it should not be the basis of any trading action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly recommended before entering into a trade. TVC:USOIL
FX:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn9051525
WTI Crude oil : Last chance to buy before new ATH? 18.05Inflation, inflation, inflation. In China, 15/16 districts have zero Covid cases and all restrictions are set to be cancelled by June. Globally, the disease is under control - Pretty much insuring a very busy summer for travel. So fundamentally - Crude oil has plenty of room to rise in the short-term and mid-term. When we look at the technicals we see : 1) Clear breakout and retest above triangle consolidation which led to strong bullish movement and bull trend ongoing now. 2) Clear close above key support/resistance zone of 108-109. 3) Probable immediate term target is resistance zone of 112.90 to 114.80. 4) A break above 114.80 could be strong confirmation for rally back to previous high and above. 5) Range trading between 108 to 114.80 is also very possible. Bottom line - Good chance for strong rally, downside to 108 is possible. A close below 108 would be bearish in the immediate term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would mean a lot. Don't hesitate to comment/ask me anything - I promise to respond to each and every one. I am not a financial advisor and encourage you to do your own research and be cautious when trading. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Exactus
16
$USOil - HamonicsPresenting this $USOil short that may in place, if the price stays under $80. Gartley is now complete and a Barracuda is currently in play - taking the price down to just under $70. However on a weekly timeframe, we have the perfect AB (62 to 129) and CD (70 to 137) in place where the C point retracement was 0.886. So whiel the daily timeframe seems to show some retracement, the weekly timeframe is very bullish. But $USoil has a mind of it's own so stay careful, operate with caution.
FX:USOIL
by VishalShah9