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Year end Trade Inflation peak / Long YTD losers Short Winners- USD has probably peaked for 2022 post US CPI important release. - Into year end Trade - Contrarian Play is to Buy Losers (Coppers, NDX, US Equities, Gold), Sell Inflation winners (WTI, USD, Financial sector, Energy Equities). - In Commodities I chose WTI as a good proxy Technicals Long term Trend is negative on crude since the top in June 2022, we broke decisively on 50-week MA and trading under Systematic / CTA Positioning is still Long. Into year end with only 5 weeks left, it's highly likely that the Trend Trade will be unwound, based on very large Standard deviations moves that happened yesterday in macro Space (US10Y, USD, Crude, Equities)
MATBAROFEX:WTI1!Short
by ArisopeCapital
Going Long in WTI USD ( Trend Analysis )Hello Traders : WTI USD Forexcom Buy / Long Trade Plan. Entry Level @ FIB 23.6% Retracement 8782.5 Take Profit 1 @ FIB 78.6% Retracement 9123.0 Take Profit 2 @ 4 Hour Resistance 9233.2 Take Profit 3 @ 4 Hour Resistance / FIB Retracement 9305.8 Stop Loss @ Daily Support Level 8596.9 Lot Size : Portfolio Size 10000 Risk to Reward 1 : 1 Lot size 3 units @ 5% Risk TP 1 = Total PIPS in gain = 340.5 Profit 3.91 % TP 2 = Total PIPS in gain = 450.5 Profit TP 3 = Total PIPS in gain = 523.3 Profit Total PIPS in Stoploss = 185.6 Loss 2.05% Regards,
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by dilsnqamz
WTI oil - Global oil demand is set to fall with deeper recessionIn the recent past, we abstained from setting price targets for the short and medium term. Meanwhile, we became focused on the long-term price target of 70$, which stays in place as we continue to be bearish on USOIL. Our view is based on the deepening recession and falling oil demand. Yesterday, the IEA Executive Director, Faith Birol, said in his interview with Bloomberg during the COP27 summit, "The recent decision of OPEC+ to cut the production by two million barrels a day was definitely not helpful." Additionally, he said that this move by the cartel was fueling inflation in developing countries and may require a "rethink". If his words come true, the world could see temporary stabilization of USOIL prices between 80$ and 90$. However, all depends also on Joe Biden, who currently does not support more drilling activity. Since the stance of the U.S. administration might quickly change (with an even deeper recession and end of midterms) and send prices much lower, we pay close attention to the energy dispute between the U.S. and OPEC. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD show signs of exhaustion. DM+ and DM- are bullish but due to cross each other. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the hourly chart of USOIL and simple sloping support/resistance levels. Interestingly, the immediate sloping support was broken to the downside, which is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
14
USOIL 1st NOVEMBER 2022US President Joe Biden will ask oil and gas companies to invest some of their record profits in lowering the cost of living in the country. Biden will ask Congress to consider requiring oil companies to pay a tax penalty. Biden has previously encouraged oil companies to increase production rather than use profits for share buybacks and dividends. The government is also relying on releasing supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the supply crisis.
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
The Bogeyman in Futures TradingNYMEX: Dutch Natural Gas ( NYMEX:TTF1! ), Henry Hub Natural Gas ( NYMEX:NG1! ) and WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) Amid a deep energy crisis faced by Europe, Dutch natural gas futures hit a new record of €350 per megawatt hour in August. Governments across the European Union adopted new rules to reduce electricity usage. In just two months, with a dramatic turn of events, natural gas prices in both Europe and the U.S. dipped below zero last week. TTF Next Hour Contract, which reflects real-time European market conditions, fell to -€15.78 on Monday, October 24th. The Waha index — a main indicator of natural gas supplies in the Permian Basin in West Texas, dropped to -54¢/mmBtu on the same day. What has made the highly sought-after energy source worthless? Europe: LNG Overflow and Insufficient Storage TTF contracts are for physical delivery of natural gas through the transfer of rights at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Virtual Trading Point, operated by Gasunie Transport Services (GTS), the transmission system operator in the Netherlands. Due to sanctions on Russia, European countries have been buying natural gas globally to prepare for peak winter consumption and asked the public to conserve energy. With increase in gas supply and decrease in gas usage, their efforts paid off. The average gas storage level in the EU has reached 93.4% of capacity, and the storage level in Germany has reached 97.5%. In addition to near-full storage levels, many LNG tankers are heading to Europe. According to Marine Traffic, out of the 641 liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers in operation worldwide, sixty are already in the north-west Europe, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Iberian Peninsula. Many LNG ships sit idly outside of ports because they cannot be unloaded. Clarksons Securities estimated that the voyage cost of an LNG carrier runs between $276,700 to $313,000 per day. This amounts to $8.3 - $9.4 million a month. In order to stop the bleeding, sellers are so desperate that they would pay someone to take over the shipment. US: Overloaded Pipelines Due to Planned Repairs Waha Index Futures is based upon the mathematical result of subtracting the monthly price published by Inside FERC from the average of the daily prices published by Gas Daily. Permian gas is produced mainly in the form of associated gas, a by-product from crude oil drilling. Crude production from the prolific basin has hit record highs this year, topping 5.4 million barrels per day in October, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Natural gas pipelines in the Permian Basin of West Texas cannot operate normally as they are already fully loaded, and natural gas can only be stockpiled in the Permian Basin. Planned repairs on Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express (GCX) pipeline appear to be the tipping point for the negative prices. Flows on GCX were cut by 38% through October 28th. The constraints forced Permian producers to sell gas at wider discounts to the US benchmark, Henry Hub. Spot prices turned negative on October 24th, meaning sellers have to pay buyers to move the gas. Bogeyman in Physical Delivery Specifications for futures contracts are very specific (hence the name). Exchanges strive to include all possible scenarios in contract design. With respect to the most important features, namely, the grade of the underlying commodity and the methods of trade settlement, no alternations are allowed unless they are specifically spelled out in the Rules Book. Both TTF and Waha reflect spot prices of natural gas physically delivered to the contract-specified locations. These designs worked well at normal times. However, under extreme conditions, sellers could not make delivery due to insufficient storage or overloaded pipelines. Negative pricing is the bogeyman in TTF and Waha. This bizarre phenomenon is a lesser evil for sellers, who have to choose between taking a known loss and potentially bigger exposure with holding unfulfilled financial obligations. How did we get here? In recent years, as developed countries are fully committed to combatting global warming, new investments are flowing into renewable energy, and away from traditional fossil fuel such as oil, gas and coal. As a result, gas pipelines and storage facilities are underfunded and lacking maintenance and upgrades. This year’s geopolitical crisis exposed the risk of getting rid of “dirty energy” too soon before clean energy picks up its pace. TTF Next Hour contract serves as a risk management tool for high-frequency gas traders. The benchmark for European natural gas is actually the TTF Calendar Month Futures. It never turned negative and is quoted at €139 on October 28th. The benchmark for US natural gas is not Waha Index, but NYMEX Henry Hub (NG). It peaked at $9.70/MMBtu in August and is trading at $5.625 on October 30th. Remember the Negative Oil Prices? On April 20, 2020, the front-month May 2020 WTI crude contract ( NYMEX:CL1! ) dropped by 306%, or $55.90, for the session, to settle at negative $37.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI first came to the market in 1983. It was the most successful futures contract in the history of NYMEX. Each contract calls for physical delivery of 1,000 barrels of crude oil at any storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma. In the next 30+ years, the exponential growth in WTI trading has outgrown the capacity in Cushing. In April 2020, all storage facilities eligible to take delivery were completely full. Sellers had to pay buyers to take the crude oil shipment off their hands. That was the first time a futures contract closed at a negative value. We could see the same bogeyman at play in TTF and Waha. How to Avoid Getting Caught in Negative Prices Unless you are a commercial trader who could make delivery, take delivery, and store shipment, it is highly risky to hold any open positions (long or short) during a contract expiration month. Futures contracts have two methods of final settlement – physical delivery and cash settlement. All financial futures are cash settled. These include equity indexes, interest rates, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrency futures. Commodities futures, including energy, metals, and agricultural commodities, are a mixed bag. They were all deliverable contracts at the beginning. Newer contracts have adopted cash settlement with the help of cash price index, such as CME Lean Hog Futures. Despite the methods of delivery, be it physical delivery or cash settlement, closing out the positions before expiration month is a prudent strategy. Doing so will also avoid getting caught in the depletion of liquidity. Commodity market liquidity is usually rolled over to the next contract month well before expiration date. Happy trick-or-treating ! *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
11
$WTI #USOIL Can Start To Rise Further, Can Go ParabolicTraders, USOIL has been rising after hitting our FCP zone as below. If 2 conditions of this set up are satisfied, it can start rising parabolically towards 100 again where we have an unfilled gap too. Manage the risk though! Aug 21: September 26: Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:USOILLong
by vikinsa
2
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailThe OPEC+ production cut from two weeks ago is yet to reflect the anticipated consequence in the market as price action appears to be completing the retracement of the previous impulse leg that started a couple of weeks ago. A breakout of the $86 mark this week will be a signal for me to buy the USOil. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
TVC:USOILLong
by darcsherry
3
US OIL BUY IDEAHello Traders!!! So sorry this one is coming late been off the charts for some hours now just set the limit and went off. So we have seen the US oil make a clear bullish impulsive leg creating our very first choch on the higher timeframes and we have seen it making the retracement back into this demand zone with our classic ABC pattern and we have decided to buy from that zone. And watch the market create a new higher high. Cheers!!! Under Cover Trading Swing Trading Simplified!!!!
TVC:USOILLong
by Undercover_Trading
2
CRUDE OIL EXPECTED RALLYRising US crude exports, indicator for increased demand, and weakening of the dollar helped for a price surge of WTI, which broke and close above the 12 days formed resistance on the 4H graph. The technical indicators are also suggesting a bullish movement, with MACD histogram above 0 line and rising and RSI above 50 neutral line. If this movement continues, the price of the instrument might try to reach levels of 93.8, but in the opposite scenario the price might test its previous support at 82.7 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by legacyFXofficial
Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year. One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market. The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs. U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA. The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage. In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap. Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels. A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Capitalcom
10