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USOIL Potential for Bearish Momentum | 14th April 2022Price is on a bearish momentum. We expect a potential for bearish dip from sell entry level of 104.65 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 97.98 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, if price breaks through the pivot structure, it might rise towards to the stop loss level of 108.76 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
TVC:USOILShort
by Rockqet
Crude Oil Idea Nr_one (WTI)Hello Traders This is my opinion on Crude Oil. The price is at strong resistance: - Trendline --> Dec./ Jan. Highs & Jan.- Mar. Lows - 78.6 Fib --> Mar. Rally - Resistance --> 1 & 4 April Lows - 50 Day EMA @ 99.29 - Descending Triangle on Price and TDI (RSI) The price will probably push back from strong resistance I mentioned, between ~98 & ~99 and move lower till the 50% Fib. support at 95.90 and the triangle support + the March low at 93.50. A break through will give the price more downside Momentum till the support levels below: - Oct. / Nov. highs @ ~85 - 161.8 Fib. Retracement --> March Rally - Very Strong Support between ~ 75 & ~77 --> 78.6 Fib. Retracement from March highs + Oct. '18 & Jul. '21 highs + 2022 Open Long-term I think the price will go higher again up to the 2008 high @ ~150 maybe more.
TVC:USOIL
by FiXTUX
2
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially rally during the trading session on Thursday to retest the 50 Day EMA and of course the previous uptrend line. Because of this, it looks as if the downtrend is intact, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before crude oil breaks rather significantly, perhaps reaching the $95 level early during the session on Friday, and maybe even breaking down below there. If we do break down below that level, then I will be targeting the $90 level. The market is going to be concerned about the fact that gasoline demand is dropping, which of course is a situation where perhaps the market had gotten so far ahead of itself that it forgot that the “cure for higher prices is higher prices.” As the world looks likely to head into recession, this is weighing upon the crude oil market because it will drive demand down. There is a structural problem with supply over the longer term, but perhaps a recession might give the oil industry a chance to catch up. As we had been locked down due to the pandemic, it is not a huge surprise that when the economy opened up around the world that the demand shock pulled prices much higher. Now that it looks like the tide is turning, we may see oil drop rather significantly. On the upside, if we were to take out the top of the Wednesday candlestick, then it is possible that the WTI Crude Oil market could go higher, perhaps reaching the $110 level, maybe even the $115 level. All things have been equal, it looks as if oil is starting to lose its mojo, making lower highs along the way. As long as that is going to be the case, then I think that you continue to fade rallies, but you should keep in the back of your mind that oil markets have been extraordinarily volatile, especially with the Russian supply essentially being taken off of the open market. The US dollar has its influence as well, but this market has been rather strong for a while, and now it looks like it is finally running out of momentum. When a market gets parabolic the way this one did, it quite often is a sign of significant overextension.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SmoothJB
WTIUSD OIL bearish mediumtermWTIUSD OIL bearish WTI broke below a key long-term pennant that had been squeezing the price action earlier in the week, with some technicians taking this as a sign that WTI will fall back towards support in the $90 area. Projection would be 60. But on Mediumterm i think we will have conditions to go to 93.50 or 90.00. Would be our targets. I will be a false breakout we will recover to retest ma50 4h near 102 area. For now seems we retested today the pennant and we have conditions to have an impulse to the downside. Targets. Supports, Resistances on chart. I will love to read your comments. Please put a like, join use following and give us your comment. Be carefull, patient and discipline. ❗ DISCLAIMER ❗ This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss. Only you can be responsible for your trading. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. This Plan can be changed anytime, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not. So please don't just blindly follow this. The author of the analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage. Legal Risk Disclosure Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. The FX market is a quickly changing environment and it requires full focus on the levels for the precise entry with low risk.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by miketiger
USDWTI : INTRADAY VIEWWTI is been consolidating b/w 99-106 and avoiding volitlty since 3 days. But when you look at chart it clearly state that there is strong support and a trend line i.e helping wti sustain above 99. WHAT DOES CHART SAY FOR TODAY(INTRADAY) WTI can take a small dip again to 99-100 taking support and will sustain above the trend line underlying at 98.5 HOW TO TRADE PROFITABLE TODAY? I would suggest buy on dip would be great deal for today. As after taking the support of trend line at 99-100 WTI may enter into uptrend and will change its dynamics from consolidation to Bullish A-B-C patter. You can take a small quantity at 99.5 the accumulating quantity on every dip would be a great DEAL for LONG traders. And for INTRADAY traders 105 would be Profit booking price.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by GIRISH-NAVANI
3
USOIL (Crude OIL) /WTI Full Top Down AnalysisAfter rising paraboilically in past few weeks, USOIL completed a multi year W pattern and fell down for a correction. After a parabolic move, a market usually falls down to a shallow target level and tries to consolidates a bit before retesting few levels and making its move again in further correction. WTI (Crude Oil) is in the second stage of it. It is right now consolidating on higher time frames and is trying to test few levels before it starts to fall again. In this Crude Oil Analysis & Forecast Updates - WTI (USOIL) Technical Analysis For April 05, 2022 we will see the scenarios which may come in the play while trading USOIL. Market conditions are still not very good and we have a new quarter along with new week starting. So trade what you are comfortable with. Do not rush into trades. Trade what you see and ignore any hypes. Stay objective. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:USOIL
by vikinsa
2
WTI bulls step in with price holding back above $100bblsThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit on Wednesday to break above the top of the candlestick from Tuesday. If you remember, the Tuesday candlestick was what I referred to as a potential “binary trade”, meaning that if we can break above it, the market could go higher. After all, the neutral candlestick suggests that we are in the midst of trying to figure out whether or not momentum will pick up. Now that we have broken decisively to the upside, the market looks very likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $120 level. Given enough time, we could go all the way to the $130 level yet again. The market has been very bullish, but I do not want to see some type of parabolic move, because as you can see, we had recently had one of those, which of course fell apart quite drastically. There is only a certain amount of momentum that can come into a market without it falling apart, so the sustainability of the uptrend is what I am looking for. Looking at the chart, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $96.55 level and climbing. As long as we can stay above this indicator, it does suggest that we are still in an uptrend. The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, so I think we will continue to see buyers on every short-term dip. The market has been very noisy but has also been decidedly positive. I have no scenario in which I am willing to short the oil market anytime soon, so looking at dips as potential buying opportunities will continue to be the way to approach the market. That being said, we will eventually run into “demand destruction”, but I do not think we are anywhere near that right now. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has quite a bit of upward mobility to it, especially as the war in Ukraine rages on. The lack of Russian oil on the open market is going to continue to cause issues, but inflation itself is reason enough to think that oil should continue to go higher. Regardless, this is a market that continues to offer plenty of opportunities for those willing to be patient enough to find value. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the US gave written guarantees that Western sanctions against the country will not impact future trade with Iran, CNBC reported on 18 March. After hovering lower for two weeks, Brent briefly returned to above $120/bbl on 25 March on reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels – backed by Iran – launched fresh attacks on Saudia Arabia. The attack hit Saudi Aramco’s oil depot in Jeddah and other facilities in Riyadh. WTI also rose to above $114/bbl on the day. The man who predicted crude oil $120 in 2020 when crude was at $30 alltime low The EIA raised the trading price of Crude oil by $22 per barrel to an average of $105.22 per barrel in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $101.17 per barrel. The higher price projection includes concerns about supply disruptions and additional sanctions as a result of Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Brent is expected to fall to $88.98 per barrel post-2022, whereas WTI will fall to $84.98 per barrel. The EIA emphasized, however, that the price projection is ‘very unpredictable’, as actual price outcomes will be determined by the severity of Russia’s sanctions, any new potential sanctions, and the impact of individual business actions. In 2020, during the COVID outbreak, the event suddenly draws Crude & Brent oil prices. The crude oil (WTI) starts falling from $65/barrel to $19/barrel. The continuous fall frightens investors all over the globe. But, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), who is also an entrepreneur & investor at that time publicly said on his YouTube video that crude will touch($90-$100) soon due to macroeconomic conditions which central banks created by putting interest rates at an all-time low. Ankit said in 2020, due to this petrol prices will touch Rs.100 first time in India. In 2022, he seems indeed right. Today petrol prices all over India almost hit Rs.100 due to an international price hike in Brent oil. Today also his video is still available on his YouTube platform which he created by the name of ‘Market Maestroo’. This video he released on Dec.25 2020. One can check it as a fact as well. He is one of the only Wealth Managers in the Globe who predicted a rise in Crude oil & only economist in India who predicted Rs100/litre of petrol. Apart from this, his many predictions in recent times come true which also become the centre of attraction for many investors. He also predicted inflation is coming & USA inflation may touch 10%. Today Feb 2022, USA inflation is sitting at 30 year high of 8%. After such successful predictions, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), now started gaining popularity & limelight. One of his famous quote in investing is “Investing is done with a calm mind, not to calm your mind WTI oil outlook: Oil hits $130 per barrel on fears that Russian energy products WTI bulls move in as US and EU move towards sanctioning Russia further. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) does little to cool down supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Monday on persisting supply concerns as Russian energy sanctions are very much on the table following the Russian forces' civilian killings in north Ukraine. For a fresh high of the day, at $103.82. WTI spot is up by some 4.5% as White House's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, announced that the US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia. Sullivan said that they have concluded Russia has committed war crimes, Bucha offers further evidence to support that, pointing to a protracted war. '' Ukraine-Russia conflict may not be just a few more weeks, could be months.'' Ukraine’s top prosecutor has said 410 bodies had been found in towns recaptured from retreating Russian forces around Kyiv as part of an investigation into possible war crimes. The weekend media reported mass killings of civilians in the town of Bucha which had been under Russian occupation until recently. The reports led to an array of calls from within the European Union for the bloc to go further in punishing Moscow. Consequently, a fifth package of sanctions against Russia is being arranged with the new round of measures expected to be approved later this week. Meanwhile and despite the release of 180-million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and an agreement last week from members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release some of their own strategic reserves, oil is firmer due to the persistence of geopolitical concerns. "The global oil market remains in deep deficit of likely 1.5 mb/d over the last 4 weeks, before the loss of Russian supply even started, with global inventories at their lowest levels in recent history on a demand-adjusted basis and with limited OPEC and shale elasticity in months to come. Demand destruction requires higher prices, yet this dynamic is being nullified by increased government interventions in cutting gasoline taxes," Goldman Sachs said in a report. ''Indeed, while the SPR release can quell near-term tightness concerns, it does not solve the longer-term issues in the crude market. Structural deficit conditions could still persist down the road as these reserves will need to be replenished at a time when global spare capacity and inventory levels will still be stretched,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''In this sense, the right tail in energy markets is set to remain structurally fat as depleted reserves would add to the existing risks of self-sanctioning, stretched spare capacity across OPEC+, constrained shale production, an uncertain Iran deal and OECD inventories at their lowest since the Arab Spring. We expect this vast array of supply risks to remain the driving force in the energy market.''
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DaveBrascoFX
BCO soon again 120 AND OIL READY FOR 150 BEFORE TACKLING 220USDOil Could Rise to $120-150 Range in Next Few Months Oil price forecast April 2022 and beyond: Will prices test $140? Oil prices eased slightly on Friday, robust US data and weekend risk supporting prices, while US SPR releases as well as yet to be determined ones from other IEA members capped gains. A UN-brokered two-month ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels has had no noticeable impact on prices today. The China holiday is definitely muting trading volumes in Asia today, leaving Brent crude unchanged at USD 104.50, and WTI unchanged at USD 99.35. With mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan all on holiday tomorrow, I expect the first part of the week in Asia to be quiet. Overall, I still expect Brent to trade in a choppy USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 range, with WTI bouncing around in a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 a barrel range. The US SPR and monthly OPEC+ production hikes balanced out by geopolitical tensions elsewhere. Nearly five weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is no sign of the oil market's increased volatility abating anytime soon. Dollar Unlikely to Lose Dominance Due to Sanctions -- Market Talk 1435 GMT - Claims that the dollar could lose its dominance in the global economy due to western sanctions against Russia appear exaggerated, Capital Economics says. The sanctions imposed on Russia will accelerate the development of bilateral trading blocs that use alternative currencies but this won't rival the scale and reach of the dollar, Capital Economics says. The dollar remains the world's leading reserve currency but its role as the dominant currency for settling cross-border transactions is more important from the perspective of geopolitical influence, it says. "Foreign demand for dollar assets creates the deep and liquid markets that underpin the dollar's global dominance WEAK USDOLLAR IS POWER BOOSTER FOR THE OIL PRICE as many countries use the weak USD to buy more oil beacuase they are afraid of further sanctions and paying more for expencieve oil. If you knew that 12months from now one barrel oil willcost 300USD,wouldn´t itbe a nice situation to buy oil right cheaper as it cots now? Think Big. Oil prices shot up to $100/barrel (bbl) on the day Russia invaded Ukraine (24 February 2022) and continued to rise in the first week of the conflict. On 7 March, international benchmark Brent oil futures hit nearly $140 per barrel (bbl), while US oil futures West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $130/bbl. The prices spiked after the US and its European allies sought to ban the purchase of oil from the Russian Federation amid the conflict in Ukraine. Since then, Brent and WTI have retreated due to several factors, including concerns about demand as a fresh Covid-19 flare-up forced China – the world’s largest oil importer – to impose a large-scale lockdown. However, prices have remained above $100/bbl. Will oil prices hold at their current level of above $100 for the rest of this year? Dive into the impact of the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict and other factors on the oil price projections and read the latest on oil prices 2022 from analysts. Oil steadies as IEA prepares details of reserve release Oil prices have pulled back considerably since peaking last month in the early days of the invasion. Declines over the last couple of weeks have been aided by lockdowns in China and a massive SPR release by the IEA, the details of which should become known early this week. The US has already made its contribution known which will go some way to easing the tightness in the market and supply shock from Russia, where sanctions are biting. This is only a temporary solution but offers a buffer over the next six months as producers ramp up production, including OPEC+ which has until now refused to accelerate its efforts in any significant way. Oil prices remain high but they’re certainly at more sustainable and less economically threatening levels. WTI slipped below USD 100 and could remain there depending on the full details of the IEA release and the length of Chinese lockdowns but the war in Ukraine remains a significant upside risk. Gold holding up as recession signals flash Gold is holding up fairly well in the face of multiple super-sized rate hikes being priced into the markets and risk appetite remaining fairly strong. The inflation risk is seemingly providing plenty of support which is why we’re seeing so many rate hikes being priced into the markets, along with the downside economic risks that continue to mount. One thing that has come with these super-sized hikes is recession risks, as evident by the inversions we’re now seeing on the US yield curve. The 2-10 inversion is now clear for all to see and has previously been a fairly reliable recession indicator. Of course, it doesn’t offer any kind of specific timeline and there are doubts about its reliability in an enormous Fed balance sheet world. The economic data may also provide some comfort. But gold is holding firm and is actually up marginally on the day. It appears to have consolidated just above USD 1900 over the last few weeks with brief dips below being quickly bought into. Equally, it’s not making any real headway to the upside, making it quite a choppy market at the moment that offers little in the way of directional clues. Oil rose for a third day as support grows for a European Union ban on Russian crude. Expectations of a further escalation of the war is also helping to drive prices higher. Oil products price forecast update April 2022 Crude oil prices typically fluctuate based on seasonal demand and supply. Most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic caused crude price changes through a drop in demand. While economic recovery is underway, oil prices continue to be affected by global uncertainties. Key Takeaways The EIA forecast that Brent crude oil prices will average $82.87/b in 2022. WTI is forecast to average $79.35/b in 2022, up from $68.21/b in 2021 . Oil prices are rising due to an increase in demand and a decrease in supply. OPEC is gradually increasing oil production after limiting it due to a decreased demand for oil during the pandemic. Current Oil Prices There are two grades of crude oil used as benchmarks for other oil prices: the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing and North Sea Brent. WTI at Cushing comes from the U.S. and is the benchmark for U.S. oil prices. North Sea Brent oil comes from Northwest Europe and is the benchmark for international oil prices. Internationally, Brent crude oil prices averaged nearly $75 per barrel (/b) in December 2021, down $6/b from November's average. Prices increased in January, up to $87/b, but they are expected to average $82.87/b in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Feb. 8, 2022. West Texas Intermediate averaged $71.71 per barrel in December 2021, and rose to $79.39/b on Jan. 4, 2022.1 The EIA forecasts that WTI prices will average $79.35/b in 2022, up from $68.21 in 2021.2 Oil prices are affected by several factors that include everything from weather to economic and political instabilities. It also estimates that global oil and liquid fuels demand was 101.08 million b/d in December 2021. That's an increase of 5.52 million b/d from December 2020, but only 0.24 million b/d lower than December 2019. However, the EIA expects demand to average 100.52 million b/d in 2022.3 2021 Oil Prices Brent crude oil prices started low in 2021, averaging $54.77/b in January.4 But they rose in the second quarter, closing at $67.73/b in April 2021. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing in the United States performed similarly, closing at $63.50/b in April. The third quarter saw massive hikes in prices, with Brent prices increasing to a height of $84.52/b in early November, and WTI reaching $85.64/b in late October. By the end of 2021 Brent sold at $77.24/b, and WTI at $75.33/b.56 Oil Price Forecast 2025 to 2050 The EIA predicts that by 2025 Brent crude oil's nominal price will rise to $66/b. By 2030, world demand is seen driving Brent prices to $89/b. By 2040, prices are projected to be $132/b. By then, the cheap oil sources will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. By 2050, oil prices could be $185/b. WTI per barrel price is expected to rise to $64 per barrel by 2025, increasing to $86 by 2030, $128 by 2040, and $178 by 2050.7 The EIA assumes that demand for petroleum flattens out as utilities rely more on natural gas and renewable energy. It also assumes the economy grows around 1.9% annually, while energy consumption decreases by 0.4% a year.8 Future oil prices will depend greatly on innovations in energy, transportation, and other industries as societies work to become less fossil fuel dependent. Always understand.the oil companies shareholders want only one thing: HIGHER OIL PRICES! HIGHER PROFIS! Reasons for Today’s Volatile Oil Prices Oil prices used to have a predictable seasonal swing. They spiked in the spring as oil traders anticipated high demand for summer vacation driving. Once demand peaked, prices dropped in the fall and winter. Oil prices are more volatile today due to many factors, but four are the most influential. 1. US Oil Supply The coronavirus pandemic and natural events are still affecting oil demand and supply. The U.S. experienced a drop in production following Hurricane Ida in September as the storm shut at least nine refineries. The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.8 million b/d in 2022 and 12.41 million b/d in 2023.9 2. Diminished OPEC Output Oil price increases also reflect supply limitations by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC partner countries. In 2020, OPEC cut oil production due to decreased demand during the pandemic. It gradually increased oil output through 2021 and into 2022. Supply chain disruptions in late 2021 affected global trade as well. At its most recent meeting in December 2021, OPEC stated it would continue to gradually adjust oil production upward by 0.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in January 2022.10 3. Natural Gas Countries in Asia have relied on coal to generate power, but recent shortages have turned them to natural gas. Higher temperatures in parts of Asia and Europe have led to high demand for natural gas to generate power. COVID-19 has hampered Europe's natural gas production, and a colder-than-expected heating season in early 2021 reduced supplies further. As a result, natural gas prices soared in 2021 and are expected to remain high in 2022, and affected countries have turned to gas-to-oil switching to reduce power generation costs.2 4. Global Inventory Draw As a reduction in oil production continues globally, countries are forced to draw from their stored reserves (not including the strategic petroleum reserves). This steady draw of oil is contributing to the increase in prices, because inventories are decreasing. How Biden’s Huge Strategic Oil Release Could Backfire President Biden’s huge SPR release announcement has pushed WTI prices back below $100. SPR release may calm crude prices only in the short term. U.S. SPR may need to be replenished at higher oil prices. This week, the Biden administration revealed that it will release as much as 180 million barrels of crude oil in a bid to calm oil prices, which have remained above $100 per barrel for an extended period of time. The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, is coordinating a smaller but international reserve release of some 60 million barrels and has called an emergency meeting to discuss how exactly to go about it. It remains unclear whether part of the 180 SPR release in the United States will be a completely separate endeavor or if some of these barrels will be part of the IEA release. Earlier this year, the U.S. had agreed to release 30 million barrels as part of the IEA push. What is clear is that the success of these releases in calming down oil prices is quite unlikely. The United States last year announced the release of 50 million barrels in an effort to bring down prices t the pump, which were eroding Americans’ purchasing power and weighing on the President’s approval ratings. This pressured prices for a few days before they rebounded, driven by continued discipline among U.S. producers, equal discipline in OPEC+, and a relentless increase in demand for the commodity. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and the U.S. banned imports of Russian crude and fuels. It also sanctioned the country’s financial system heavily, making paying for Russian crude and fuels too much of a headache for the dollar-based international industry. Prices soared again before retreating some, but remain firmly in three-digit territory. Related: Why We Cannot Just “Unplug” Our Current Energy System As of mid-March, the Department of Energy said, some 30 million barrels of crude from the strategic petroleum reserve had been sold or leased. That’s more than half of the 50 million barrels announced in November, and it appears to have had zero effect on price movements. But the new reserve release is a lot bigger, so it should make a difference, shouldn’t it? It amounts to some 1 million bpd over several months, per reports about White House plans in this respect. Unfortunately, but importantly, oil’s fundamentals have not changed much since November. U.S. shale oil producers, the companies that a few years ago prompted talk among analysts that OPEC was becoming increasingly irrelevant, have rearranged their priorities. They no longer strive for growth at all costs. Now they strive for happy shareholders. This has given more opportunities to smaller independent drillers with no shareholders to keep happy. Yet these have also run into challenges, mainly in the form of insufficient funding because the energy transition has had banks worrying about their reputations and their own shareholders. Pandemic-related supply disruptions have also affected the U.S. oil industry’s ability to expand output. Frac sand, cement, and equipment are among the things that have been reported to be in short supply in the shale patch. Now, there’s a shortage of steel tubing, too. Meanwhile, OPEC is doing business as usual, sticking to its commitment to add some 400,000 bpd to oil markets every month until its combined output recovers to pre-pandemic levels. Just this week, the cartel approved another monthly addition of 432,000 bpd to its combined output despite increasingly desperate calls from the U.S. and the IEA for more barrels. OPEC has been demonstrating increasingly bluntly that its interests and the interests of some of its biggest clients may not be in alignment right now. It has refused to openly condemn Russia for its actions in Ukraine and has not joined the Western sanction push. Related: U.S. Oil Demand Has Been Vastly Overestimated On the contrary, OPEC is gladly doing business with Russia. And Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two OPEC members that actually have the capacity to boost production beyond their quotas, have deemed it unwise to undermine their partnership with Russia by acquiescing to the West’s request for more oil. In this environment, releasing whatever number of barrels from strategic reserves could only provide a very short relief at the pump. Then, it may make matters even worse. As one oil market commentator on Twitter said about the SPR release news, the White House will be selling these barrels at $100 and then may have to buy them at $150. Indeed, one thing that tends to get overlooked during turbulent times is that the strategic petroleum reserve of any country needs to be replenished. It’s not called strategic for laughs. And a 180-million-barrel reserve release will be quite a draw on the U.S. SPR, which currently stands at over 580 million barrels. If oil’s fundamentals remain the same, prices will not be lower when the time to replenish the SPR comes. This seems the most likely development. The EU, the UK, and the United States have stated sanctions against Russia will not be lifted even if Moscow strikes a peace deal with the Ukraine government. This means Russian oil will continue to be hard to come by for those dealing in dollars or euros. According to the IEA, the shortfall could be 3 million barrels daily, to be felt this quarter. OPEC+ is not straying from its course. In some good news, at least, U.S. oil production rose last week for the first time in more than two months, by a modest 100,000 bpd.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX