Elliott Wave count for OILHello everyone hope you spending a good weekend, Here's the update for WTI Crude Oil in daily timeframe, as we can see in the chart seems the first leg of wave <2> has been completed and we are in the wave X of this correction. I'll prepare wave count in H1 timeframe to see these movements by more details, see the next post for that. You can see the details in the chart, If you have any idea or question about this scenario please share with us in comment. I will provide more Elliott wave count daily if you are interested follow us to receive updates.
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Wticrude
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Looks Set to Pull BackThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, only to break down rather significantly and show signs of extreme weakness. By doing so, the market looks as if it is probably going to test the 200 day EMA underneath, which currently sits at the $69.21 level. Whether or not we break down below there is a completely different question, but it is worth noting that the $73 level has been a bit like a brick wall, and therefore I think at the very least we have a pullback coming.
The 200 day EMA will obviously attract a lot of attention, but whether or not it holds will remain to be seen. If we break down below there, then it is likely we go looking towards the $65 region, where we had a major uptrend line and a hammer form and bounced from. The market is more than likely going to respect that area, but if we break down below the $65 level, then it is very likely that crude oil will break significantly lower.
A lot of this is going to be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks, because part of what we are seeing here is the fact that liquidity will start to dry up towards the end of the year and therefore you need to pay close attention to your position size. After all, you may get the occasional spike that causes havoc for your account. If we can break above that $73 level finally, then I think the market goes looking towards the $75 level, which also happened to be where the 50 day EMA is. The question now is whether or not the markets are going to start pricing in a massive slow down economically or are they going to start looking towards the fact that demand for crude oil could continue to go higher based upon the reopening trade. Omicron did cause quite a bit of wreckage in risk appetite around the world, but it does look as if the variant is not going to be as dangerous as some of the others. However, if governments continue to try to shut everything down, that obviously has a very negative effect on crude oil.
WTI Oil can rise above 80 (again)From 25th October's high at around 85, Oil has started to correct and dropped to strong demand zone between 62 and 65.
Now, this correction seems to be over and we can have a leg up above 80 again.
I'm bullish as long as the price is above 65 and, in my opinion, dips should be bought
Elliott Wave count for OILHello everyone, here's the update for WTI Crude Oil in H1 timeframe, You can see the details in the chart, If you have any idea or question about this scenario please share with us in comment. I will provide more Elliott wave count daily if you are interested follow us to receive updates.
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WTI BULLS 🐮WTI is showing solid signs that we could be moving into a bullish market in the current trading week.
We have already executed longs and have added to them, our take profit levels are already listed and we will determine based on short-term price action which level will be our profit target. Since we will compound the possible upside we might be getting out sooner as our profit could drastically increase due to compounding.
If we take into account price action, you will see that we have already formed a higher high and a higher low, while right now we are stuck in a little range, volume is increasing on WTI which suggest a move is coming today.
We are long until proven wrong.
Crude Oil Plummets on OPEC DecisionOPEC Agrees January 2022 Supply Hike
Less than one month ago, WTI Crude Oil was trading at about $85 per barrel, which was a multi-year high price. Over the past three weeks the price descended rapidly from that high, and today extended that trend to approach the 6-month low price at $61.76. The pace of this downwards trend accelerated a few days ago with the news of the discovery of the omicron coronavirus variant. As there are fears that this variant may be dealt with by lockdowns and trade shutdowns or delays, if its potency is revealed to be high, we can expect a drop in demand, which will inevitably mean a drop in the price of WTI Crude Oil.
It was against this backdrop that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed a short while ago to extend the supply of January 2022 Crude Oil by 400,000 barrels per day. There are initial reports that the members are also agreed to review this decision if demand does drop rapidly over the coming weeks.
WTI Crude Oil Price Action
The price of WTI Crude Oil has fallen strongly over the past few days. It has fallen by more than 25% in value since reaching a multi-year high of $85.39 on 25th October 2021. The pace of the fall has quickened recently. The drop is showing what might be initial signs of exhaustion as it approaches the key support level at $61.89 which represents the lowest price seen since May 2021.
What Does This Mean for Traders?
Traders should be aware that if the omicron coronavirus variant is resistant to existing vaccines and can also cause serious illness to vaccinated people, governments may well react by initiating another round of shutdowns for a while, as they did in March and April 2020 when the disease really began to spread worldwide.
The lockdowns, shutdowns, and trade restrictions that were put in place in the spring of 2020 did a great deal of economic damage, although most economies rebounded strongly after this period as restrictions were eased.
The panic of March 2020 saw huge and very rapid directional movements in the markets, but nothing was as spectacular as the price action in WTI Crude Oil, with futures actually going into negative territory for a while. This and the subsequent strong rebound gave traders and speculators some incredible trade opportunities, first short, then long.
If history is going to repeat itself, even if on a smaller scale, the price of WTI Crude Oil has good reasons to fall further, in line with the long-term trend. How far it might fall is anyone’s guess, but if omicron is economically destructive, it is very likely to.
Where is Oil support?The oil price has reached 62.46, as was predicted in the previous analysis!
This level could be a very important support level, and I am looking for a possible reversal sign here!
One good option could be:
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
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Elliott Wave count for OILHello everyone, Here's the update for WTI Crude Oil in H1 timeframe, I think we may see another wave down in H1 timeframe and after that some upward movements begin. You can see the details in the chart, If you have any idea or question about this scenario please share with us in comment. I will provide more Elliott wave count daily if you are interested follow us to receive updates.
📣 Attention 📣
⚠️ 1. We publish this trading idea to help analysts, so if you have an idea that you think is right, do not be influenced by this idea.
⚠️ 2. All our analysis and signals are provided free of charge, so we have no obligation to make any profit or loss on our signals and analysis.
⚠️ 3. If you have an idea, write to us in the comments section, we will be happy to use your idea in our analysis
USOIL Reversal? | Market outlook Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday after Moderna's chief cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron coronavirus variant, spooking financial markets and heightening worries about oil demand.
Possible pullback before uptrend continuation in the following sessions.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (25th November 2021)USOIL seems to stabilize in range between 75 USD and 79 USD. Currently, it trades around 78 USD; and we are closely watching technical indicators as they continue to point to the bearish condition. Current state of oil coincides with the recent set of bearish news regarding realese of the strategic oil reserves by the U.S. and its allies. We do expect the OPEC to take counter measure in response to this action. We think this will most likely take form of lessening production quotas for OPEC's members. We still think that in long-term price of oil is headed higher. However, in short-term and medium-term ongoing politics between the OPEC and the U.S. create headwinds for further rise in price of oil. Despite that, we expect OPEC's counter measures to bolster bullish case for WTI oil.
WTI oil continuous futures chart and volume:
Volume continues to decrease which suggests that selling pressure cools off.
Other developments in a world thatt are related to oil market:
1. First snow in Europe drags power prices higher.
2. EIA reports that crude oil inventories rose slightly last week with inventories of gasoline falling.
3. UN Nuclear Agency failed to reach agreement with Iran last week.
4. Oil markets take relatively well release of strategic oil reserves.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bearish. MACD is also bearish but it started to show first signs of flattening. Though, it needs to be closely observed for next action in the following days. If it manages to reverse to the upside and cross above 0 points then we will view it as very bullish development. Stochastic remains in bearish area, however, it managed to reverse and it currently points to bullish direction. It also needs to be observed closely in the following days. If it manages to oscillate higher then we will view it as bullish development. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. ADX suggests that prevailing trend is very weak.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI exhibits divergence in its medium-term structure. We will observe it in the following weeks and we will look for its ability to reverse back into bullish direction. MACD remains in bullish territory, however, it keeps moving sideways (bearish histogram is forming today). DM+ and DM- remain bullish. ADX continues to decline which suggests that trend is weakening.
Divergence in RSI:
Double divergence in RSI is not particularly bullish development. We will observe action of RSI very closely in the following weeks as it flashes warning signs at the moment.
Support and resistance
Major resistance level sits at 85.39 USD while major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Support 1 is at 76.95 USD, Support 2 is at 75.47 USD, Support 3 is at 74.21. These supports act as short-term levels of importance. Additionally, yesterday's high at 79.20 USD acts as immediate resistance. Another important level from psychological standpoint is 80 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Oil trickling furtherDon't forget to like and follow for more detailed daily analysis.
Here we have our OIL chart.
Market sentiment around COVID has driven this asset down, due to fears that people will not be buying oil if there is problems with demand.
After our last long target was hit yesterday, from a technical perspective we are looking long again. This allows us to begin DCA.
Directional arrows show the price direction.
Crude resistance plays - now for Support to show its hand $CLI had warned of a pullback in Crude in early-November.
and this comes after a series of breakouts that I've been following on the long side, going back to May
Earlier in November, WTI had run into a massive Fibonacci level and prices were very stretched. It was the type of trend that gets funny comments on Twitter if you try to fade. But, good resistance is good resistance, and that's precisely what's played out in WTI over the past month, with some help from a few bearish drivers like Covid variants.
At this point, prices are starting to test support at a prior resistance zone. This zone carved the highs for 2019, 2020 and for a few months earlier this year, 2021. I'm following this zone from 64.31-67.19, taken from a couple of longer-term fibonacci retracements. The topside of the zone was about a nickel off of last week's close 67.14 v/s 67.19.
I had just written an article that discusses how I'm looking to operate around this move. While this presents long-term support potential, the short-term trend is decisively beairsh, and with sellers taking out the 70 handle again this morning, it doesn't look like the low is in yet.
Key note - we're less than 2 days from the close of the month and the monthly bar is currently showing as a bearish engulf. If it closes that way, could be a rocky finish to the year for oil prices.