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Crude Oil Price Analysis: Can oil price up again? Oil prices are up in trading today as traders eye potential for a bounce-back after being badly beaten down at the end of last week. WTI suffered its worst performance this year with an 11% drop to $67.50 before finding some footing again around $71.50. Although it remains weaker than usual due mainly because there's no sign yet that supply confronted by demand will ease anytime soon—even though most analysts still think inventories have been building too much all winter long. The oil markets were in a slump on Friday as the Omicron headlines hit. Still, there is a serious consideration that what may heavily dampen oil bullishness due to recent developments. Suppose more people die from this virus next year. In that case, those investing money in oil will lose hope for it being an optimistic fundamental outlook that could cause them to make decisions based on fear rather than the possibility. This passage mainly discusses how one event can change many peoples' perspectives about what they believe their future holds. Even we saw last year oil price dropped nearly $00 for somewhile. So, if the pandemic situation becomes worse like the previous year, the oil's demand will collapse, and crude oil prices may drop again vastly. The ramifications of an Omicron variant crisis are huge, but it's not all gloom. If border controls tighten and more onerous restrictions are imposed globally again, there will probably be no quick fix to resolve the global oil market outlook. We should be careful until vaccinations have had their chance at relieving us from worst-case scenarios once more if they're needed even sooner than expected. If the world leaders can control Omicron and prove nothing more than a hiccup, Friday's retreat will be quite the dip to buy in on Friday, especially when we still need a few weeks. But, one can't rule out dead cat bounce just yet because it may take some time for things to settle and cool off from such high volatility movements. Suppose Omicron is just a hiccup. Then, it will continue its buying pressure. And If Omicron is absolute, then it will continue its Selling pressure again.
TVC:USOIL
by Gold_Trading_Expert
WTI Falls 13% In A Day; The Battle For The Price Of Oil ContinueThe price of oil dropped 13% on Friday (26/11/21), marking the commodities worst single day in 2021. A drop in oil prices this large was last seen in January/February 2020, when WTI was making its way down to unprecedented negative per barrel territory. No one expects oil to veer this low again, but the comparison to 2020 is apt, with Coronavirus responsible for the commodity’s downfall on both occasions. New Coronavirus variant discovered in South Africa An effort to lower the price of oil had begun before the new Coronavirus strain, named the Omicron variant, appeared. Led by the US, a strategic release of Oil reserves was being enacted or considered by members of the International Energy Alliance (IEA) in an attempt to lower the price of oil, which they saw as hampering their respective economic recoveries. It has been claimed that the strategic release would have little effect on the oil price, as the quantity to be released is half of the world’s daily consumption. Yet, oil has fallen from its 2021 highs of US ~$85 per barrel since the announcement. In response, OPEC+ was said to be reconsidering its plan output increase to counter the strategic reserve release by the US and its IEA allies. The OPEC+ rumours helped plug some of the losses oil was experiencing, but not enough to stop consistent weekly losses in the commodity’s price. By Friday, oil had rung up five weeks of straight price decreases. Is the Omicron threat overshooting the fair price of oil? The Omicron variant is possibly the worst coronavirus variant known, as reported by the BBC. However, uncertainty exists as to how vaccine resistant, virulent, and deadly the strain is compared to its predecessors. As such, countries quickly moved to restrict travel from South Africa, reminiscent of January/February 2020, when international travel came to a screeching halt, and the price of oil fell from US $63 per barrel to sub-zero. Countries that have placed travel restrictions on South Africa (and other African nations) include the US, the UK, and Germany. As of writing, WTI is trading at US $68.16 per barrel, as mentioned above, 13% lower than Thursday’s price. Two questions come to mind: Has the market reacted too severely to the threat posed by Omicron? Can the strategic release of oil by IEA nations now be halted or pared back? Regarding the former, Goldman notes that Omicron should have only warranted a ~6.5% drop in the price of oil and that the commodity should quickly recoup some of Friday’s dip. Regarding the latter, it might not be too late to turn this tap off. IEA nations have pledged to release as much as 80 million barrels of oil, with 50 million of these barrels coming from the US. However, a genuine commitment from IEA members has yet to be agreed upon, with discussions still underway as of Friday.
TVC:USOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
Oil is about to reach a critical pointHi everyone. We are about to reach the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is around 73.5. This indicates whether we're in a correction or we started to see a downtrend. If the chart pivots from 0.5 level it can take back the previous high at around 85.30, which can then go to 100$ if it breaks the 85.30 level. As long as we're above 73.5, the 0.5 level is 100% in the reach. For the $100 level we need more confirmation and see how it reacts to the levels on the chart. If we don't pivot from 0.5 level, I'm expecting an Elliot wave to the demand zone, which is the red box in the chart. It's likely the case that we hear a new about oil supply in upcoming weeks that can affect the price. In that case, the analysis has to be updated, but a down trend should be assumed. I personally don't see this happening, but we never know what the news is going to be. As for entering a position, you should wait for the confirmation from the 0.5 level, and if the price doesn't close bellow the level. Once I got my confirmation, I would enter at above 0.5 level, with the stop loss of below 0.6. Remember: You should ALWAYS have a Stop Loss when trading commodities. You should have stop loss in any case, but it's especially the case with commodities. Note: Do your own analysis before making a trade. Let me know what you all think! Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
TVC:USOILLong
by soheilsdgh
3
🛢️ Crude Oil - Wti Back to 70,64 🚢🔱Don't fill your tanks (or tankers) yet because we see an unchecked level at 70,64$ that will most likely need to be checked. High dollar, inflation worries, Oil must be 'controlled' and the battle to tame inflation. Biden knows, Europe knows, China knows. Price is under an ascending channel and this is a highly bearish signal that triggered the correction. Price is attempting to rise but the 80$ mark is a technical and psychological resistance that will be hard to breach over. Fill your tanks and tankers next month. the FXPROFESSOR
TVC:USOILShort
by FX_Professor
4
Oil remains steady after reserves release announcement The release of oil reserves was expected to lead to lower oil prices, but instead, WTI Crude Oil has remained steady after a spike. It currently trades just above $78, but upward momentum has been limited. There is short-term resistance at $78.65 and bulls will be looking to close above this figure. However, bearish pressure could lead to a drop back to November lows. If bulls do push the price up, $80.50 will be an important resistance level to look out for. Currently, we see price consolidating and we could soon see a trend emerge. Joe Biden's announced that over 50 million barrels are set to be released with coordination from Japan, China and India. The aim is to lower energy prices, however, OPEC+ producers may respond based on future price action. Traders will be looking out for weekly crude inventories data and other key US economic releases. After hitting 7-year highs, analysts will be wondering whether Crude Oil will be adversely affected by potential demand shortages as a result of increasing Covid-19 cases and possible lockdowns. investors may possibly see this as a short-term trend, but the USOIL price could react if there are greater concerns about lower demand.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by Capitalcom
1
WTICOUSD may end the correction.WTICOUSD may end the correction. In the analysis, the white dashed line indicates ATR axes. The figure shows that similar wave sequences are built on the ATR axes. Since the size of the wave sequence currently being built is half of the size of the previous wave sequence, it can be said that the current wave sequence is a fraction of the previous sequence. This observation is supported by the local bottoms in the orange squares. The support levels of both wave sequences (now fractal) are given by the ATR axes. Based on the theory described above, I expect WTI to rise from the current level. I also assume that it will not simply turn, but will set itself on a sustained upward trajectory. Its target price : 94 usd
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by meszaros
5
Elliott Wave count for OILHello everyone hope you spending a good weekend, I updated the chart for WTI Crude Oil in daily timeframe, Seems, because of strong wave 3 of V the last wave to the upside(5 of V) occurred in truncation form and couldn't make a new high and we are in wave <2> now. You can see the details in the chart, If you have any idea or question about this scenario please share with us in comment. I will provide more Elliott wave count daily if you are interested follow us to receive updates. 📣 Attention 📣 ⚠️ 1. We publish this trading idea to help analysts, so if you have an idea that you think is right, do not be influenced by this idea. ⚠️ 2. All our analysis and signals are provided free of charge, so we have no obligation to make any profit or loss on our signals and analysis. ⚠️ 3. If you have an idea, write to us in the comments section, we will be happy to use your idea in our analysis
TVC:USOIL
by fx_iranian_traders
4
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Trying to RecoverThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has broken down a bit during the course of the session on Thursday but has seen a bit of buying pressure to test the 50 day EMA. The market is forming a bit of a hammer, and now that we have had a nice pullback, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see this market continue to go higher. At that point, it is likely that the market would go looking towards the $85 level, which is where we had recently formed a bit of a “double top” previously. I think the $85 level is more likely than not going to be the target, and I do not think that it will be easy to break above. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the bottom of the hammer for the trading session on Thursday, then it opens up a move down to the $75 level. That is an area that I think has a lot of psychology attached to it, and therefore I think I would be a bit surprised to see this market break down below there. Even if it did, the 200 day EMA is reaching towards the $70 level as well, so I think that is your “floor the market” going forward. Nonetheless, we have formed a nice hammer for the day, and this does suggest that the buyers are trying to step up and pick this market up. If that is going to be the case, then it is probably only a matter of time, or we turn around and go looking towards the $85 level above. Looking at this chart, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but you should keep in mind that we are in an uptrend . That is probably the most important thing here to pay attention to, so because of this you need to keep the “buy on the dips” type of set up in mind, as trying to short a market that has been so strong for months on end would be rather foolish and probably a great way to lose money. If we can somehow break above the $85 level, then it is likely that we could go much higher, perhaps filling the idea of a $100 target.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTICOUSD-Testing 50-Day EMAThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell on Wednesday to reach down towards the crucial 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is an area that will continue to cause a certain amount of attention, but it should be noted that we have sliced through the $80 level rather easily. We are closing towards the bottom of the range for the day, so now the question is whether or not we will have follow-through. That typically is the case that when you close towards the bottom of the range; quite often you will see a bit of follow-through in the next session. There are a lot of concerns out there that the Biden administration may release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which could bring down pricing for a short-term move, but longer-term it tends to have a very limited effect on the markets. Because of this, I think that we will eventually have a nice buying opportunity, but it is a scenario where we need to pay close attention to the idea of value as it occurs, because there is no reason that I can see for a longer-term trend change. The market looking at the consolidation area could probably see it as a bullish flag being formed. This is a market that I think continues to offer plenty of value, so it is likely that we could eventually find quite a bit of buying pressure. Keep in mind that the inventory numbers coming out of the United States will continue to dictate where we go, and we have those over the next 24 hours. Underneath, I think the $75 level is going to end up being a bit of a floorin the market, unless of course there is some type of huge negative attitude out there, something that I have not seen much of recently. In fact, one could make an argument for the recent action forming a little bit of a big “potential double bottom” in what would be a continuation longer term. We will have to wait and see, but that is one potential set up if we can break above the highs of the day, extensively recapturing the $80 level. I do not like shorting oil right now, but that does not necessarily mean you need to jump in with both feet. This is a market that I think continues to offer plenty of value, so it is likely that we could eventually find quite a bit of buying pressure.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by SmoothJB
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (18th November 2021)We abandoned short-term price target of 85 USD in our previous idea (as correction resumed). In addition to that, we noted that it was very likely that price would drop towards 78 USD. Currently, USOIL trades slightly below that level. We will observe WTI oil in the following days and we will look for more weakness or possible end of correction. Though, at the moment, we think it is likely correction will continue little further towards 76 USD. Because of that we will watch support level at 76.95 USD; and we will observe whether this support will be able to hold further selling pressure. Technical analysis on daily time frame suggests more weakness for oil. Despite that, we think current price is very attractive to start considering (re)entry of long position in WTI oil, however, with big cautiousness. Picture below shows USOIL on daily time frame. It also shows possibility of bearish breakout below crucial support level at 76.95 USD. If this support is broken then we expect price to drop even further. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are very bearish as they continue to move downward. MACD is also very bearish. Indeed, MACD nears crossover into bearish area. If MACD manages to perform crossover then we expect such occurence to be accompanied by more selling pressure. ADX contains low value which suggests that trend is either neutral or very weak. Technicals are overall bearish and suggest more trouble ahead for USOIL. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI has bearish structure. MACD remains in bullish territory, however, it strives to reverse into downside. Similarly, Stochastic is in bullish area but it already reversed its direction into downside. DM+ and DM- still suggest that bullish trend is present but ADX continues to decline which reflects that this trend is weakening. Support and resistance Major resistance sits at 85.39 USD while major support lies at 61.58 USD. Short-term support level sits at 76.95 USD. Another (closest) important support appears at 75 USD (as psychological support). Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
11
WTI Crude Oil Price ForecastAside from Crypto and Stocks, I also look at economical indicators, metals, and commodities. I will be adding these to my ideas moving forward starting with the analysis on WTI Crude Oil price. WTI Crude Oil was in a multi-year descending triangle, which it broke out of and retested the top of the trendline in August 2021. The price is on it's way upwards. Something I learned from a trading mentor is when in doubt, zoom out and look left. I took a fractal pattern from 2009-2013 which looks very similar to how the price is playing out currently and overlaid it in the current price range. Furthermore, I added in the fib levels to see where we can be able to get to before some level of retracement. It seems that $95-$100 price range may be in the cards as the price may get to fib level 0.618 before a rejection. I will keep the community updated on this. What are your opinions on this? Comment below, hit the like and follow me. Thank you! Check out more below for recent Altcoin, Bitcoin and Stock Ideas. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk #bitcoin #altcoins
TVC:USOILLong
by MillionaireEconomics
3
WTI starting to recover from inflation driven plungeHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ Oil prices surged above $83 per barrel in volatile trading on Thursday, recovering from significant drops caused by concerns about rising US inflation, as OPEC reduced its 2021 oil demand prediction owing to high energy prices. In a monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated that it expected oil consumption to average 99.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2021, a 330,000 bpd decrease from last month's prediction. Possible Scenario for the market : The market is currently trading at $81.26 and looks like it going to the support line located at $80.17 where a battle will happen between the Bears and the Bulls over control, the outcome will probably be in favor of the bulls which will cause the market to increase in value reaching the first resistance at $84.08. in case the demand for oil increases even more then we will most likely see a further push that could reach the $88.00 level by the end of the week. Technical Analysis show : 1) The market is below the 5 10 20 MA and EMA indicating a Bearish Short-term movement, but still above the 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA indicating a Bullish Long-term trend 2) The RSI is at 51.61 showing good strength in the market with a small Bullish divergence that could be a sign of a Bearish short-term trend. 3) The MACD is above the 0 line still indicating a Bullish market, but it has a Negative crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line indicating a small Bearish movement. Support & Resistance points : support Resistance 1) 80.17 1) 84.08 2) 78.63 2) 86.45 3) 76.26 3) 87.99 Fundamental point of view : OPEC expects global consumption to hit 100 million bpd in the third quarter of 2022, three months later than predicted last month. On Wednesday, data indicated that inflation in the United States surged by 6.2 percent, the quickest rate in 30 years, owing primarily to increasing energy prices, which pushed the dollar higher while sending Brent and WTI oil down by 2.5 % and 3.3 %, respectively. A surge in US oil supplies following the government's release of some critical reserves pushed up prices even further. In reaction to rising inflation, US President Joe Biden stated he directed the National Economic Council to concentrate on lowering energy costs and the Federal Trade Commission to crack down on market manipulation in the energy industry in order to reverse inflation. This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
TVC:USOILLong
by GabiDahduh
2
OIL SHORT PLANBefore we go into this analysis, please go ahead and like/follow for more free Professional trading tips/plans I post daily :) Here we have an updated chart for our Crude oil. We previously were short and now we are shorting again. Oil has been driven up high over the past few weeks and had its move down, we have since bounced back up to these highs. This is why we are short again. The previous levels we fell from form new resistance and a high price. Our target is noted back down at the labelled support + MA's, likely where price will bounce again and we can go long if we need to.
TVC:USOILShort
by WillSebastian