WTI Crude Bullish SequenceIn this update we review the bullish sequence in Crude Oil and identify the next high probability trade locations
Wticrude
WTI Oil update Big Week Begins SlowlyThe US called upon OPEC+ to boost oil output but has so far been reluctant to tap its own strategic reserves to address the price surge that is denting the economic recovery. It has, though, committed to selling some as part of a past fiscal agreement.
Last week, the London Metals Exchange announced several ad hoc measures to address the apparent shortage of copper. These included requiring large holders to lend the copper back to the exchange, allowing short positions to delay delivery, and limiting backwardation (when near-term prices are dearer than longer-term contracts). As Bernanke once quipped, in a crisis, there are no idealogues, or perhaps fairer, in a crisis, ideology is often sacrificed for expediency.
Oil is expected to move downside as its been already on oversold price. Make your own Risk Reward ratio while trading in Oil
Oil sales? The Oil analysis is very simple, we follow an upward trend with a projection up to 86/87. Tambein made small operations without confirmation in case he decides to change trend. Today 10/20/21 I keep a short with the SL at the maximum of laterality. If it surpasses this (No false breakout) it should remain bullish. We are attentive.
The entrance is Sclaping but the operation is Swing with strokes up to 75/60/50
WTI watch out for a reverseWTI is for now still in strong move up and it wouldn't be a good timing to short now.
However i would look out on continuation into the 85$/90$ long term resistance in order to try for a short trade.
Before entering i would wait for the MACD to turn red and upper BB to start closing, until this 2 conditions are not meet, there is no question to short this market. Lower target would be to pullback into 76$ support area.
This will be interesting to follow next week.
WTI IS NOW SETTING UP TUMBLE DOWN Target 86 to 89 I will be going to a full 75 to 85 % net short on any rally into these targets . The last wave of inflation
OIL Intraday. Aiming 1:10 RRMissed a sell on oil today.
Risk 1% and aiming for 10% on this trade. No indicators used. Pure price action. Like to keep my chart clean. Simply trading structure, nothing else!!
All trades closed on the same day. Entries are taken on 1 min chart. Stop loss is moved to cost after structure break. Don't chase the trades, wait for the next opportunity.
Also, please view price action on 1 min chart if you're following my entries. It will make sense. Trading view doesn't allow to post entries on charts smaller than 15 minutes.
Mostly trade 12-5pm UK time NY session. Sometimes London Session. Don't like the idea of watching charts the whole day.
Crude oil correction wave happening!!Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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Oil hit a five-year high near $84 a barrel on Thursday driven by tight supply and a global energy crunch, although prices eased as some investors took profits on signs the rally is looking overstretched.
The market and different technical indicators currently are giving a lot of signs that this Bullish push is overextended which could lead to a correction move in the near future.
Possible Scenarios for the market :
Scenario 1 :
a correction wave is due and it will probably start by a drop in price that will lead the Crude price back to the first support zone located near the $80 area where the Bulls power will be tested, If the bears were able to beat the Bulls at that level then we could be seeing a further drop that will reach the $75 - $76 level.
Scenario 2 :
the global energy shortage has caused a push in oil prices recently and a solution for that problem hasn't been found yet. So after the correction wave happen the Bulls will go in to try to push the price back up and when that happens, the market will be moving to the first resistance line located at $84.98, and in case a breakout happens from that line then a further push will happen to reach the $87.93 level
Technical indicators show :
1) The market is above the 5 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish sign)
2) The RSI is at 71.38 reached the overbought zone, which indicated a correction is due, with no divergences found between the market and the indicator.
3) The STOCH is moving in the overbought zone which could indicate a drop soon, With a negative crossover between %K and %D.
Daily Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 82.30 1) 85.27
2) 80.36 2) 86.30
3) 79.33 3) 88.24
Fundamental point of view :
Oil prices have eased in Asia after China’s threat to cap coal prices saw the mainland coal futures slump limit down once again today.
That has unwound some of oil’s gains overnight after Saudi Arabia poured cold water on more OPEC+ production, oil or gas, and US official Crude Inventories, Gasoline and Distillates fell sharply, including crude stocks at the Cushing hub.
WTI jumped 1.33% to USD 83.50 overnight, testing USD 84.00 a barrel intraday. In Asia though, it has fallen 0.50% to USD 83.10 a barrel.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
USOIL - Support Broken - My Thoughts On What Comes Next...Due to the previous long trade idea being invalidated I had a long hard think about the overall pattern.
I once again have to lean towards the idea that the pattern since 2008 has not completed yet.
Not quite the same idea I had previously but one that suggests that this latest move up is a completed Wave C.
Whether or not you understand exactly how AriasWave works, the point is that the move up since last year looks complete.
I have personally already shorted this market due to ideas mentioned in this video but not saying you should.
One thing I forgot to mention is the tweezer top candle pattern on the daily chart.
Apart from that I expect lower prices from this point.
See the previous long trade idea which was invalidated below in related ideas.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
Oil drops on China intervention to ease coal crunchOil prices turned down after the Chinese government flagged it was looking for ways to tame record high coal prices and that it would ensure coal mines operate at full capacity as Beijing moved to ease a power shortage.
Chinese coal prices and other commodity prices slumped in early trade, which in turn pulled oil prices down from an uptick earlier in the day.
Oil markets had hit multi-year highs earlier in the week on the back of a global coal and gas crunch, which has driven a switch to diesel and fuel oil for power generation.
"Ultimately, China's coal output needs to increase to remedy its energy woes," Commonwealth Bank commodities Data.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $82.66 a barrel at 0316 GMT, reversing most of a 52-cent gain from Tuesday.
Brent crude futures dropped 43 cents, or 0.5%, to $84.65 a barrel, paring a 75-cent rise in the previous session.
The China Electricity Council said late on Tuesday China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) discussed government intervention in coal prices at a meeting of key coal producers.
In a separate statement, the NDRC said it would ensure coal mines operate at full capacity and aim to achieve at least 12 million tonnes per day of output, which would be up more than 1.6 million tonnes from late September.
The market was also pressured by data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group which showed U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 15, according to market sources.
That was well above nine analysts' forecasts for a rise of 1.9 million barrels in crude stocks, in a Reuters poll.
However U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, which include diesel, heating oil and jet fuel, fell much more than analysts had expected, pointing to strong demand.
Gasoline stocks fell by 3.5 million barrels compared with analysts' forecasts for a drop of about 1.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 3 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a drop of 700,000 barrels.
USOIL - Long Trade Idea - A Clearer Picture Has FormedIn this video I continue the coverage of this uptrend in WTI Crude Oil.
As per my previous idea linked below I mentioned the possibility that this pattern would occur.
I have updated the count to reflect this and have stated the critical support level.
Entry: At Market
Stop Level: $81.76
Target: TBA
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
WTI Wave SequenceWTI now has a clear 5th wave upside target, in this update we review the two way trading opportunities that are developing
USOIL - Price Action Indicates Trend ContinuationSince price action has broken the highs I have adjusted the count to highlight a potential expanded Wave 2 correction.
When something doesn't add up you must go back and reassess the previous corrective waves.
Sometimes even corrective waves can look impulsive due to underlying strength in the market.
In this video I explain why this is entirely possible and if this proves accurate then we may be looking to break all time highs.
When a Wave 2 correction expands to the upside as this count suggests then we can only assume that this move will be extremely bullish.
This fits the characteristics of Wave 3 price action and I lay it all out in this video.
Feel free to provide some constructive feedback in the comments below.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
WTI Crude OilCrude oil prices pulled backed slightly overnight after a US report showed a large build in stockpiles. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 5.213 million barrel build for the week ending October 8. That is the third weekly inventory build reported by the API. Energy traders will shift their focus to the upcoming Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report where analysts expect to see a build of just over half a million barrels for the week ending October 8, according to a Bloomberg survey.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its Monthly Oil Market Report, which trimmed its global demand outlook for this year. The organization lowered its 2021 demand forecast for oil from 5.96 million barrels per day (bpd) to 5.82 bpd. The 4.2 million bpd forecast for 2022 was unchanged from its September report. Delta variant-driven outbreaks in the summer months were responsible for the downward revision.
However, OPEC did note a possible tailwind for oil prices due to rising natural gas prices. The energy crunch across Asia and Europe sent prices for the heating gas soaring this year. US prices are also higher, partially due to export demand from those energy crunches. UK natural gas prices are up nearly 300% for the year, although the meteoric rise appears to be taking a breather.
That rise is incentivizing some energy producers to switch to crude and Brent oil products. That said, if natural gas prices continue to rise, it may likely drag oil prices higher alongside. The EIA will report weekly US natural gas stocks tonight. Analysts expect a 94.58 billion cubic feet (bcf) build. A larger-than-expected build may see prices ease, which could ease demand for crude oil from energy producers.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST
Prices are hovering just above the psychologically imposing 67 handle. The 61.8% Fibonacci extension from the middle August move capped upside action earlier this week. Bulls may see that as a level to overcome before moving higher. The RSI oscillator is in overbought territory on the daily time frame, suggesting prices may need to cool for a period before resuming the preceding uptrend.
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - DOW JONES - WTI CRUDE OILThis weeks market updates will focus on individual markets due to some key elements that need discussing.
The reason for this is due to some opposing views from last week when I made two separate videos.
Since then I have done some research in order to bring some clarity over those views and how they differ between markets.
Having taken a good look at these charts individually I have chosen to make these conclusions.
This ideas mentioned in this video will form the foundation for future updates if this interpretation of the current price action proves accurate.
You can find the Crypto Market Update linked below in related ideas.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fluctuated on Tuesday as it sits just above the $80 level. When you get a strong move to the upside like we have had, the market will either go sideways to digest its gains or pull back. At this point, it looks like we are going to settle on grinding sideways and digesting the previous move. If we were to turn around and break down from here, there are multiple areas where I would anticipate seeing support, especially at the $75 level. That being said, the market also sees the $77.50 level as a potential buying opportunity as well. Crude oil continues to be very tight as far as supply is concerned, so I have no interest in trying to get too cute and short this market. The market is very likely to go much higher over the longer term, so I think it is simply a matter of waiting for an opportunity to get long of crude oil yet again. In fact, it is likely that we would see plenty of opportunities going forward, and most people believe that crude oil is going to go looking towards the $85 level.
The candlestick for the day is very indecisive, and I think that is likely to be how we behave between now and the end of the week. If we broke above the top of the shooting star for Monday, then I think it would open up a move towards the $85 level rather quickly. The market will almost certainly see an increase in momentum at that point, so I believe that it is probably going to be a signal to get somewhat aggressive to the upside. Again, I do not see any situation in which I would be a seller, because the market is tight from a supply standpoint and should continue to be so for the foreseeable future. In fact, when you look at the futures curve, it is not until late next year when you start to see prices drop back down towards the $60. I think this is going to continue to be an issue going forward, so we need to pay close attention to some type of “blow off top”, but we are nowhere near seeing that right now.
