Crude oil eyes $80, but resistance loomsWTI is on track for a bullish engulfing week to snap a 3-week losing streak. And as it fell over 17% from the April high, it could pave the way for further gains in the coming weeks. However, there are plenty of resistance levels around the $80 that could spur bears from the side lines.
The May VPOC and VAH sit around Wednesday's high, and the monthly R1 and weekly R2 near the May high. So whilst another crack at $80 seems more likely than note, the $80 area could be an interesting area to fade into.
Strong support sits around $75.50, making it a viable target for bears and area for bulls to reconsider entering for an anticipated move above $80.
Wticrude
WTI Oil - 4H Sell OpportunityThe WTI Oil chart shows a compelling setup for a short position. The price has rallied into a significant resistance zone around $79, coinciding with a strong downward trend line that has been respected multiple times. This area acts as a confluence of resistance, providing a high-probability entry for selling.
Given the persistent bearish trend, this resistance zone is likely to hold, reinforcing the potential for a downward move. The chart indicates that selling WTI Oil at this juncture offers a good risk-to-reward opportunity, aiming for a decline towards lower support levels as shown by the red arrows.
USOIL is Under PressureWTI crude oil futures are experiencing a downturn, currently priced at $79.37 per barrel, marking a 0.48% decrease. This decline is attributed to the global economic challenges that are negatively impacting the demand forecast. Similarly, Brent crude has seen a reduction in price, now at $83.88 per barrel.
The economic recovery in China is progressing slower than expected, and the anticipation of additional interest rate hikes is exacerbating concerns over economic growth, exerting further downward pressure on oil prices.
In the United States, crude oil inventories have witnessed an increase of 3.4 million barrels in the previous week, contributing to the existing oversupply. The persistent risk of a recession continues to place significant stress on the oil market.
Meanwhile, amidst these market conditions, option sentiment from the CME exchange suggests a robust support level at $75 for WTI futures in the nearest expiration series. This sentiment indicates a strong market belief that prices are unlikely to fall below this threshold, providing a measure of stability despite the current market volatility.
For investors and market watchers, these indicators from the options market are a critical piece of the puzzle, offering insights into future price movements and trader expectations.
OIL (WTI) - 4H Three PushThe WTI Oil 4H chart displays a classic bullish reversal pattern, often referred to as the "three pushes" or "three drives" pattern. This pattern is characterized by three distinct attempts by the market to push lower, each attempt being met with increasing buying interest. The current setup shows that after three downward pushes, the price has started to rebound, indicating a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
The price action has recently broken above the upper boundary of the descending wedge, which suggests a weakening bearish trend and the possibility of a new bullish phase. The target for this bullish movement could be around the $84 level, where previous resistance lies. Traders should watch for continued higher highs and higher lows to confirm the upward trajectory, and consider long positions as the price action aligns with this bullish reversal signal.
Crude Oil: Long Position Amidst Support and SeasonalityWe are considering a long position on crude oil, given that the price has reached a significant support area. This support level is reinforced by a divergence observed on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting a potential reversal in the current trend. Additionally, seasonality data supports the likelihood of a bullish movement during this period.
The convergence of these technical indicators and historical trends strengthens our conviction for a long setup. The RSI divergence indicates that the recent downward momentum may be waning, while the support area provides a strong foundation for a potential price rebound. Furthermore, seasonality data, which highlights recurring patterns in price behavior during specific times of the year, suggests that crude oil prices are poised for an upward movement.
In light of these factors, we are looking to establish a long position on crude oil, capitalizing on the technical setup and historical data that align to suggest a favorable entry point for a bullish trade.
CRUDE OIL (CLN2024, USOIL, WTI)... BEARISH!Bias is Bullish.
Daily TF shows 2 weeks of
consolidation supported by a Daily
+FVG. Friday finally saw a "BO" as price
traded through the swing high with
a close above it. Note that price is
now inside the a Daily -FVG.
Potential for a bearish reaction? Yes.
However, I believe it will be short term
if anything.
The 4H gives more detail.
One can see bullish structure in
place that will support a move higher,
potentially to to test 80.21.
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OIL (WTI) - 4H Sell SetupIn the past hours, OIL (WTI) experienced a sharp rise driven by news of Iran's president's death, which significantly impacted market sentiment.
This surge allowed OIL to break above the bearish channel and catch the liquidity over the resistance zone, as illustrated on the chart.
However, despite this upward spike, the price action suggests that OIL may continue its downward trajectory within the descending channel.
Traders should monitor this closely as the price looks set to resume its fall, adhering to the prevailing bearish trend.
The liquidity hunting above the resistance zone indicates potential for further declines as the market reverts to its established downward path.
USOIL enjoys relief but has an uneasy path ahead of itWest Texas Intermediate crude oil trades near $79.80 per barrel, which happens to be slightly below the 20-day SMA and the lower bound of the ascending channel. A breakout above the moving average will bolster a bullish case for oil in the short term, especially if the price closes above the 20-day SMA for multiple consecutive days; the same applies to a breakout above the channel’s lower bound. Once the 20-day SMA is broken, $80.44 and $82.25 are important resistance levels to watch out for. However, a rejection at the moving average and channel’s bound will be somewhat concerning, potentially foreshadowing further stagnation around the current price or return of weakness.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays simple support and resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs.
Illustration 1.02
The daily MACD of USOIL is shown above. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line. However, it is important to emphasize that MACD is still within the bearish area below the midpoint.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL Short-Term Outlook: Why We're BearishWe're looking at the USOIL market and our analysis shows signs of a short-term downtrend. Here's why:
COT Reports: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports reveal that the behavior of participants labeled as "Commercials" is most characteristic of a bear market.
CFD Market Positioning: Oil traders in the CFD market are shifting their positions, with most now long. This could trigger a wave of stop-losses, further pushing prices down.
Options Analysis: Real options portfolios on the CME exchange suggest that strategies like Bear Put Spreads are gaining popularity. These portfolios are targeting a price of around $70 per barrel.
Taking these factors into account, we believe the short-term outlook for USOIL is bearish.
What do you think of the market? Share your thoughts in the comments!
WTI Pump loading WTI is following my main ideas and it showing us a good bullish pattern that I really like. We can see a strong divergence on multiple timeframe, a break above main trendline, and it's giving us enough time to accumulate longs at a strong support zone. My first target is the same as previous ideas
Crude Oil: Potential Bullish ShiftOn 4h timeframe, WTI Crude Oil is printing a falling wedge pattern followed by Bearish Divergence on RSI. Potential Reversal Zone is predicted using the AB=CD pattern.
TRADE PLAN
Buy on breakout on previous Lower High.
Stop Loss on previous Lower Low
TP1, TP2 with RRR of 1:1 and 1:2 respectively
Crude Oil | BULLS MAY DOMINATE THE NEXT DAYSMay is not always a good month for crude oil. When you look at the last 40 years, there is a positive change rate of less than 50%.
However, Crude oil is moving to the support resistance point, and its performance in the last 8 election years, from the beginning of the may to the 21-22 of May during the election years, is 7 years positive and an average return of 12%.
That's why I'm very BULLISH on Crude oil, which is below last year's opening level and at a significant support-resistance flip point.
WTI Running wellThe previous setup i shared about WTI is confirmed and actally is running pretty well. I expect a continuation to the upside till the resistance area at $81.5 before a possible retrace. On lower timeframe we can see a bullish divergence and a break above bearish trendline. Expecting higher
Israel strikes Iran againIsrael retaliated against Iran overnight, which saw the price of WTI crude oil jump nearly 4.5% before giving up some of its gains. Per media reports, three large explosions were heard in the country's south, and the U.S. official announced Israel successfully hit some of the targets, something Iran was quick to deny. Without regard for damages, it is already apparent the two adversaries entered a spiral of reciprocatory aggression. Unless there is any form of effective mediation between the two sides (which is, by the way, unlikely), the conflict could enter a stage of regional war, with Israel potentially fighting on multiple fronts. Needless to say, this has enormous implications for the region, which is responsible for a significant portion of the global oil supply and, thus, influences oil prices (at this point, the only counterweights for the rising price of oil could be OPEC’s willingness to bring production online, protraction of global economic slowdown, and potentially more releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves by the USA).
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish (stalling/turning neutral)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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OIL - WTI 4H BullishWTI Oil has indeed finished its second leg and retracted back to a significant order block zone.
This is often a signal for potential accumulation before another ascent.
Based on current patterns, it's poised to climb back up towards the previous decline pivot, setting up an interesting play for those watching the oil markets.
USOIL BUYING MORE TILL HIT 123$ HELLO FRIENDS
As I can see USOIL has Break the triangle zone and now trading above 80$ as we said in our previous analysis, we are more bullish on Gold with Technical and Fundamentals views as we all know the War is still going on and US Gov supporting all his allies with billions of $ and there is no Ceasefire in near term. Iran is now entered in this War Plan which is not good for Commodities and Energy sectors.. Investors always look for safe haven in these term and conditions inflation to 2% is now seems a hard Goal. OIL Supply and Demand can creat volotility in markets as we can see Asian regions higher Demand
Friends if we see technically view on USOIL we can see oil breakout on Triangle Zone on Daily Chart and looking for more bullish moves. Time Depends
Friends its just an trade idea share Ur thoughts with us it helps many other traders.
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