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Crude Oil | BULLS MAY DOMINATE THE NEXT DAYSMay is not always a good month for crude oil. When you look at the last 40 years, there is a positive change rate of less than 50%. However, Crude oil is moving to the support resistance point, and its performance in the last 8 election years, from the beginning of the may to the 21-22 of May during the election years, is 7 years positive and an average return of 12%. That's why I'm very BULLISH on Crude oil, which is below last year's opening level and at a significant support-resistance flip point.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by XU3Trades
Israel strikes Iran againIsrael retaliated against Iran overnight, which saw the price of WTI crude oil jump nearly 4.5% before giving up some of its gains. Per media reports, three large explosions were heard in the country's south, and the U.S. official announced Israel successfully hit some of the targets, something Iran was quick to deny. Without regard for damages, it is already apparent the two adversaries entered a spiral of reciprocatory aggression. Unless there is any form of effective mediation between the two sides (which is, by the way, unlikely), the conflict could enter a stage of regional war, with Israel potentially fighting on multiple fronts. Needless to say, this has enormous implications for the region, which is responsible for a significant portion of the global oil supply and, thus, influences oil prices (at this point, the only counterweights for the rising price of oil could be OPEC’s willingness to bring production online, protraction of global economic slowdown, and potentially more releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves by the USA). Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish (stalling/turning neutral) Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
CRUDE OIL Bullish Side Robbery Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist Bullish side of Crude oil Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan i have mentioned with target in the chart focus on Long entry, Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous area market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend change /Strong Pullback happens at the level Bear Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of Powerful dynamic resistance level, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next target. support our robbery plan we can make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by Thief_Trader
1
USOIL BUYING MORE TILL HIT 123$ HELLO FRIENDS As I can see USOIL has Break the triangle zone and now trading above 80$ as we said in our previous analysis, we are more bullish on Gold with Technical and Fundamentals views as we all know the War is still going on and US Gov supporting all his allies with billions of $ and there is no Ceasefire in near term. Iran is now entered in this War Plan which is not good for Commodities and Energy sectors.. Investors always look for safe haven in these term and conditions inflation to 2% is now seems a hard Goal. OIL Supply and Demand can creat volotility in markets as we can see Asian regions higher Demand Friends if we see technically view on USOIL we can see oil breakout on Triangle Zone on Daily Chart and looking for more bullish moves. Time Depends Friends its just an trade idea share Ur thoughts with us it helps many other traders. Stay tuned
TVC:USOILLong
by APEX_TRADING_ACADMEY
Options Blueprint Series: Credit Spreads for Weekly PlaysIntroduction Credit spreads are a sophisticated options strategy involving the simultaneous purchase and sale of options of the same class and expiration, but at different strike prices. This approach is particularly effective in scenarios where the trader seeks to capitalize on premium decay while maintaining controlled risk exposure. Commonly used in volatile markets, credit spreads can offer a strategic advantage by allowing traders to position themselves in accordance with their market outlook and risk tolerance. Understanding Credit Spreads Selling one option and buying another with the same expiration date but different strike prices is done to earn the premium (credit) received from selling the higher-priced option, offset by the cost of buying the lower-priced option. There are two main types of credit spreads: Call Spreads and Put Spreads, specifically Bull Put Spreads and Bear Call Spreads. Bull Put Spreads: This strategy involves selling a put option with a higher strike price (receiving a premium) and buying a put option with a lower strike price (paying a premium), both on the same underlying asset and expiration. The trader anticipates that the asset's price will stay above the higher strike price at expiration, allowing them to keep the premium collected. This spread is termed "bull" because it profits from a bullish or upward-moving market. Bear Call Spreads: Conversely, this strategy involves selling a call option with a lower strike price (receiving a premium) and buying a call option with a higher strike price (paying a premium). The expectation here is that the asset's price will remain below the lower strike price at expiration. This spread is called "bear" because it benefits from a bearish or downward-moving market. Easy Way to Remember: Bull Put Spread: Remember it as "selling insurance" on a stock you wouldn't mind owning. You're betting the stock price stays "bullish" or at least doesn't drop significantly. Bear Call Spread: Think of it as "calling the top" on a stock. You're predicting that the stock won't go any higher, demonstrating a "bearish" outlook. Risk Profile The below graph illustrates the risk profile of a Bull Put Spread (Bullish Credit Spread that uses Puts): WTI Crude Oil Options Contract Specifications WTI Crude Oil options offer traders the opportunity to manage price risks in the highly volatile crude oil market. Key contract specifications include: Point Value: Each contract represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil, with each point of movement equivalent to $1,000. Trading Hours: Options trading is available from Sunday to Friday, providing extensive access to market participants around the globe. Margin Requirements: Initial margins are set by the exchange and are adjusted according to market volatility. USD 6,281 at the time of this publication (based on the CME Group website). Credit Spread Margin Calculation: For credit spreads, margins are typically lower as the margin for a credit spread in WTIC Crude Oil options is calculated based on the risk of the position, which is the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received. This calculation ensures that the trader has sufficient funds to cover the potential maximum loss. (for example: a spread using the 78.5 and the 77.5 strikes which are 1 point away would require USD 1,000 minus the credit received). Understanding these specifications is crucial for traders looking to employ credit spreads effectively, ensuring compliance with financial requirements and alignment with trading strategies. Application to WTIC Crude Oil Options Credit spreads are particularly suited to the Weekly Expiration WTIC Crude Oil Options due to their ability to capitalize on the oil market's frequent price fluctuations. The strategy's effectiveness is enhanced by the oil market's characteristics: Market Dynamics: Crude oil prices are influenced by a myriad of factors including geopolitical events, supply-demand dynamics, and changes in global economic indicators. These factors can lead to significant price movements, creating opportunities for options traders. Strategy Suitability: Given the volatile nature of crude oil, credit spreads allow traders to take a directional stance (bullish or bearish) while limiting risk to the difference between the strike prices minus the credit received. This is particularly advantageous in a market where sudden price swings can occur, as it provides a safety buffer in case WTI Crude Oil moves against the trader and then comes to back towards the desired direction. By employing credit spreads, traders can leverage such market characteristics to potentially enhance returns while maintaining a clear risk management framework. Forward-looking Trade Idea For above TradingView price chart presents a trade setup as we consider the current market conditions and employ a put credit spread strategy, focusing on two UFO (UnFilled Orders) Support Price Levels that indicate potential support below the current market price of WTIC Crude Oil Futures. These levels suggest that prices are unlikely to drop below these thresholds anytime soon. Trade Setup: Utilize the 78.5 and 77.5 put strike prices for the credit spread. Sell a put option at the 78.5 strike price, where we expect the market will not fall below and collect 0.13 points (USD 130). Buy a put option at the 77.5 strike price to limit downside risk and define the trade’s maximum loss and pay 0.07 points (USD 70). Premium Collected: The credit received from this spread is the difference in premiums between the sold and bought puts, which contributes to the overall profitability if the options expire worthless. The net credit collected is USD 60 (130-70). Expected Outcome: The best scenario is for WTIC Crude Oil prices to stay above the 78.5 strike at expiration, allowing the trader to retain the full premium collected while minimizing risk. As seen on the above screenshot, we are using the CME Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. This trade is predicated on the belief that the underlying crude oil price will remain stable or increase, ensuring that the prices do not fall to the strike price of the sold put, thereby maximizing the potential for profit from the premiums. Risk Management Effective risk management is crucial when employing credit spreads in trading. Given the defined risk nature of credit spreads, several strategies can be implemented: Position Sizing: Adjust the number of spreads to fit within the overall risk tolerance of the trading portfolio, ensuring that potential losses do not exceed pre-determined thresholds. Stop-Loss Orders: Although credit spreads have a built-in maximum loss, setting stop-loss orders based on market price can help lock in profits or prevent excessive losses in volatile market conditions. Monitoring: Regular monitoring of market conditions and adjusting positions as necessary can help manage risks associated with unexpected market movements. Conclusion Credit spreads offer a strategic advantage for options traders looking to leverage market movements while controlling risk. By focusing on premium collection and employing a disciplined approach to risk management, traders can enhance their chances of success in the volatile WTIC Crude Oil options market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
WTI looks set to bounce above $80Oil prices have retraced just under 8% from the MTD (month-to-date) high. And it looks like the market is trying to stabilise around a support cluster, just above the $80 handle. The cluster includes the 50-day MA, high-volume node and prior consolidation zone. A small doji also firmed around these levels to suggest a swing high has formed, or very near. A bounce to $84 could be on the cards as part of a technical retracement against its prior move lower. Bulls could enter live around current levels with a stop beneath $80, or seek dips towards it in anticipation of an eventual move higher to increase the potential reward to risk ratio.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Why I Expect 200 Dollar USOIL Wti CrudeUsing momentum indicators (keltner channel) I've been watching this weekly rally and recent correction. Using the close, and the last wave, oil price could climb to astronomical levels in USD. There is a momentum shift of the correction, and the bull market for oil appears to be underway. At this pace, 200 by june is not far fetched. I expect the Dollar to lose significant strength, and costly measures enforced as an abysmal attempt to stifle inflation. Soon interest payments will become the largest expense if it hasn't already. There is much reason to worry about world markets right about now. Larger Pattern Breakout and here is the shift up close on the weekly: This is not financial advice.
TVC:USOILLong
by Mikhiavelli
33
Oil Prices: Geopolitical Tensions and Market DynamicsOil prices have once again surged, reaching nearly $88.00 per barrel, despite a recent minor decline. This uptick in prices is occurring amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and a strengthening US Dollar. However, amidst this volatility, it's essential to dissect the various factors influencing oil prices, from geopolitical unrest to economic forecasts and technical indicators. Geopolitical Tensions and Market Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions often act as a catalyst for oil price volatility. Conflicts in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains and lead to uncertainty in the market. Recent geopolitical events have heightened concerns, contributing to the surge in oil prices. However, it's crucial to note that while geopolitical factors can trigger short-term spikes, their long-term impact is contingent on broader market dynamics and economic fundamentals. Impact of Economic Forecasts and Electric Vehicle Market Growth: The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revised its oil demand forecast for the current year and the next, citing a lackluster economic outlook and the growing market share of electric vehicles (EVs). This adjustment underscores the evolving landscape of energy consumption, with EVs exerting pressure on traditional oil demand. As such, forecasts of slower growth in oil demand highlight the need for adaptability within the energy sector. Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies: Technical analysis plays a pivotal role in navigating oil price fluctuations. Assessing indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Fibonacci levels provides insights into market sentiment and potential price movements. Currently, the confluence of signals, including RSI divergence and overbought conditions, suggests caution. Additionally, the absence of a significant retracement to the 78.6% Fibonacci level warrants a strategic approach to setting stop-loss levels and identifying potential entry points. US Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Differentials: The recent rally in the US Dollar Index (DXY) underscores market expectations of a widening interest-rate differential between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks. This divergence in monetary policy influences currency movements and has implications for commodities priced in dollars, such as oil. Understanding the interplay between currency dynamics and oil prices is essential for informed decision-making in trading and investment strategies. In addition to fundamental and technical analyses, seasonality patterns offer valuable insights into market behavior. By examining historical price trends during specific times of the year, traders can identify recurring patterns and optimize their trading strategies accordingly. Incorporating seasonality analysis alongside other analytical tools enhances the robustness of decision-making processes and mitigates risks associated with market volatility.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by FOREXN1
3
Oil could go to $90 and higher if this happens...Since the eruption of the war between Hamas and Israel in early October 2023, we have been occasionally reporting on some of the developments in the oil-rich region. In one of the more recent articles, we outlined how Israel’s deadly airstrike against Iranian generals in Damascus, Syria, was likely to provoke retaliation from Iran and its proxies. On Saturday, Iran followed through and launched a large-scale attack on Israel. Per media reports, Iran sent approximately 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles, most of which were intercepted outside of Israel’s airspace with the help of Israel’s allies, including the United States. The attack sparked a discussion of retaliatory strike against Iran within Israel’s war cabinet, with officials not being able to agree on a timeline. Initially, it was announced Israel would reciprocate aggression in a window of 24 to 48 hours. However, just shortly before the futures market opened on Monday, Israel’s officials backtracked their plans, noting the country was not looking for significant escalation of the conflict while leaving a possibility of payback on the table. Besides the attack, there was also news concerning Iran’s seizure of the Israel-linked MV MSC Aries cargo ship (operated by Geneva-based Mediterranean Shipping Company and owned by Gortal Shipping) off the Strait of Hormuz. At the moment, it does not seem very probable there will be some sort of disruption to cargo or tankers transiting through the area, but keep in mind that about 21 million barrels per day were transiting through here in 2022, which is about three times more than oil passing through the Red Sea before the start of the Israel-Hamas War. All in all, the geopolitical situation in the region progresses from bad to worse, carrying many unknowns. But judging by how things are unfolding, there is a high chance of a conflict passing beyond a point of no return, which, in turn, has profound implications for the oil market and could see the oil price rise above $90 per barrel (and potentially to the upper $90 per barrel). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
WTI/Oil 4h Technical Analysis during IranVSIsrael warDespite Iran's attack on Israel, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil remained stable. However, in the event of a reciprocal response from Israel to Iran within the next 24 hours, the price of oil is expected to make a significant upward jump from its long-term trend line. Currently, the price of WTI crude oil is within its supportive range on the 4-hour timeframe, and last week, it broke above a long-term daily trend line, which is now being tested with a pullback and a bearish candle which can be a fake bearish sign by geopolitics issues! The RSI is in a suitable range for buyers and playing around 44, so opening long positions on oil is the best decision at the moment. Entry: CMP at 84.7 - 85 even TP: 92.627 TP: 98.34 TP:106.52 TP: ATH Around 168
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Money_Hedge
Crude oil fluctuates and rises, and is about to go up WTI crude oil prices rose choppily despite a somewhat downbeat inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and a stronger-than-expected March consumer price index (CPI) report (which may further delay the Federal Reserve's first rate cut). The current geopolitical environment continues to provide support for oil prices. Crude oil real-time market analysis: The 4-hour upper track pressure is at the 87 mark. The daily SAR indicator has appeared at a high level and diverged downwards since yesterday. The current extension point is at the 87.5 line. The defensive resistance lies in the daily Bollinger Band upper track position of 88.1. If crude oil prices break down, focus on the 84 mark and the daily MA5 moving average of 83.5. On the whole, crude oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, and it is enough to maintain the high-sell-low-low mentality until it breaks the range. U.S. trading strategy: Crude oil is recommended to go short in batches at 86.9-87.5, stop loss if it breaks 88.2, target 86-85, hold if it breaks below 84; go long when the low hits 84.5 (±2 points) for the first time, stop loss 83.7, target 85.5 -86.2;
TVC:USOILLong
by Jerome-Leon
Oil: Thoughts and analysis Today's focus: Oil Pattern – Continuation? Support – 85.38 Resistance – 87.37 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at oil on the daily. After a surge from the USD caught a lot of attention yesterday, we are watching oil after it rejected a push lower by sellers and continues to hold in a potential continuation type set-up. Do you think that price is showing signs of a continuation? Could a close above yesterday's high signal a new move higher that could test resistance at 87.37? Watch out for a new move lower that tests the 85.50 area, as that could be a sign that sellers have more numbers than first thought. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Eightcap
#XTIUSD/WTIOIL: 2000 Pips Buying Opportunity! Do not miss outFirst prediction on XTIUSD turned out to be a successful one where take profit '1' hit . successfully which gave us nice 900 pips in profit. Now we are looking at the broader picture on XTIUSD, targeting 96.00 region which remain crucial for many traders. Price is at the right zone to enter swing, take entry with accurate stop loss that suits your trading style. Please do your own research too before taking any buying entry on XTIUSD. Like and share for more!
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
7
#XTIUSD/USOIL: Will bull take price to $100?Dear Traders, Hope you are doing great, US OIL we can see a strong bullish impulse in coming months, in coming months we can target US OIL to hit 79.00 region first then $85.. and final target will be $100. Plus, wait for price to breakthrough the bearish trend line and once it does you can take safe entry. If you want to take higher risk you can enter now with a accurate risk management. Sellers exhausted and we can see in daily timeframe as price have failed to break through recent LOWER LOW. This is a good sign for us when we are eying for big target. Please like and comment if you agree with the idea ;)
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
26