BullishWe have a break of structure to the up side followed by a return to a trendline with a false break. We also have bullish Divergence on the weekly chart! Get ready for the seasonal price change of OIL...
Wticrude
USOil WTI Technical Analysis And Trade Idea USOil WTI has shown a robust bearish trend of late, reaching into a noteworthy support level on both daily and weekly charts. The accompanying video offers an extensive breakdown of this trend, meticulously dissecting price actions and pinpointing potential trading prospects by conducting a comprehensive analysis across various timeframes, spanning from weekly down to as brief as 15 minutes. Expect a thorough exploration encompassing price fluctuations, market trends, trend assessments, and critical technical analysis elements. It's imperative to highlight that the insights shared here are solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial guidance.
Range trading
The market's reaction to OPEC+'s announcement of voluntary production cuts was a further decline in oil prices. According to reports, investors were pessimistic about crude oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and had already priced in their expectations that production cuts would not be enough to push oil prices higher.
The market's economic recession and investors' disappointed attitude towards crude oil have caused oil prices to continue to fall despite production cuts.
At present, crude oil pays attention to the resistance level of 75 and the support level of 72. The current market situation is still range trading and there will be no one-sided situation.
Crude Oil Bullish
Crude prices rose as a weaker dollar and optimism that major oil producers could extend ongoing production cuts at an OPEC+ meeting later this week boosted sentiment.
Although the market is still paying close attention to the production of non-OPEC countries, various positive factors have provided positive external support for oil prices. Investors' expectations for the OPEC+ meeting have kept the market cautiously optimistic about future oil prices. Secondly, the combination of a weaker dollar, expectations of production cuts, and supply concerns have driven up oil prices.
Judging from the current trend of crude oil, as long as it does not fall below 74.4, oil prices will give priority to rising to test the 79.3-80 area.
We also need to pay attention to the key position 75.8.
WTI Crude oil - last updateOur overview: Definitely OPEC+ policy disappoint the market. The Cot report released Friday, referring to data until the previous Tuesday, then few day before the OPEC+ meeting, highlighted that the commercial barely increased(1%) their net long positions in options, reverting the trend of the previous report. Furthermore, a news from 'businessinsider.com' say "Saudi Arabia could 'flush' the oil market with a flood of supply to regain control over prices in the face of rising US production. All this might push the market toward more weakness and negativity. In the overnight session price retraced getting closer to the support area @$73.00.
Technical signals: RSI negative and Stochastic negative in oversold area.
Trends analysis: Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 5, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave A, minor(yellow): corrective structure wave C.
Our current strategy: Strictly Neutral, following the market.
Our current position's risk profile @$73.38: delta 0.052, gamma 0.216 Hedging point: not set
Targets
$76.50
$75.00
$74.20
$73.00
$72.40
$71.80
WTI Crude oil - last updateOur overview: Definitely OPEC+ policy doesn't convince the market. Massive selloff with more tha 500K contract traded, push the price to re-test the trend/neck line. Market could enter in latera trading range.
Technical signals: RSI negative, and Stochastic negative.
Trends analysis: Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 5, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave A, minor(yellow): corrective structure wave A.
Our current strategy: Neutral, following the market.
Our current position's risk profile @$75.70: delta 0.018, gamma 0.192
Hedging point: not set
Targets
$78.70
$77.80
$76.30
$74.00
$73.30
$72.50
WTI Crude oil - front expirationOur overview: Strong GDP in US, and hope on the OPEC+ meeting, offset the build in crude stockpile. A bigger then expected production cut would push for a Christmas rally. Today is mandatory stay neutral at least till is gonna be clear the OPEC+ policy.
Technical signals: RSI and Stochastic positive.
Trends analysis: We maintain an overall positive overview with a potential extension till $81.50/$82.00 if OPEC+ will confirm a robust production's cut. Primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 4 with target @$80.00/$82.00, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave C, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current position @$78.78(in scale to a basic number of contracts :
current delta: 0.137
current gamma: 0.198
Targets
$81.00
$79.75
$78.70
$77.00
$76.40
$75.80
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#CRUDE #OIL Slanted inv H and S breaking upPrefer the more horizontal head and shoulders but never the less this looks like a good breakout with a target at +- $82.50
WTI Crude oil - last updateOverview: After several tentative, finally the trend line has been broken. Yesterday's CoT report (Commitment of Traders) highlighting that commercial and not commercial are reducing their net long positions in options. This could be a signal that area $73/$75) is an accumulation's area, at least for the current conjuncture, confirming our strategy. Eye on API crude oil stock tonight.
Technical signals: RSI and Stochastic in positive area.
Trends analysis: After the movement of the last days we redraw the technical analysis and the trends perspective. A clear head & shoulder closed with the today's breakout of the neck line, and potential extension till $81.50/$82.00. So this is the updated reading: primary(purple): downward impulsive structure wave 4 with target @$80.00/$82.00, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave C, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 2.
Strategy: Neutral delta, following a potential technical pull back till $75.70! Then positive looking for the upward trend extension till area $79/$80/$82. Stop: not set.
----->>Today's session corrections: @$76.97 from +0.69 to -0.03
Our current delta: @$76.46: -0.12
WTI Crude oil front expiration - last updateOverview: Weekness due to the OPEC+ meeting uncertainty.
Strategy: Positive Delta looking for a technical rebound and waiting for the CoT report which is gonna be released today. We hold moderate positive position. Our current delta: @$74.20: +0.20
Technical signals: RSI negative, Stochastic in oversold area.
Trends analysis: primary(purple): corrective structure wave A, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave C, minor(yellow): impulsive structure wave 2. On breakout of $73.90 the intermediate(green) trend will go back to wave B asymmetrical structure.
----->>Today's session corrections: @$74.80 from -0.36 to 0.30
Crude oil range trading
Crude oil continued its downward trend at the opening on Monday, and its rebound at $75.7 once again encountered resistance and declined, indicating a bearish trend. Looking at the daily trend chart, the daily level has been negative for three consecutive times. Although there is no new low quotation, the high price has not been broken, indicating that an adjustment in crude oil prices is expected.
After the oil price broke down continuously in the early stage, after hitting a new low of 72.3, the oil price rose to 78.43. However, after the subsequent oil price retracement, there was no continuation of the bulls. At this stage, it is in a triangle shock. If there is no breakthrough of the previous high, There are signs that there will be a high probability of a continued downward break.
Oil prices currently focus on resistance 77.5-78.3 and support 73.7
Overall bearish
WTI Crude oil front expirationOverview: The price just approach the first important resistance area, a downwards trend line. This dynamic resistance has already rejected prices 3 times since its formation. Lateral trading waiting Wall Street's short session.
Strategy:
we hold delta neutral position waiting for a breakout. In this case, we will go long with a stop level @$76.30. Our current delta: @$76.65: 0.06
Technical signals: RSI still in neutral area, Stochastic positive.
Trends analysis:
primary(purple): corrective structure wave A
intermediate(green): corrective structure wave C
minor(yellow): impulsive structure wave 3
Mandatory rebalance level: not set
Today's session corrections:
----->> @$76.65 from 0.48 to 0.06.
WTI Crude Oil Trading: An In-Depth Analysis of a Bearish TrendDear Esteemed TradingView Members,
I n the ever-evolving world of finance and trading, staying ahead of the curve is essential for success. If you're part of the exclusive audience of elite business professionals and investors, you understand the importance of precise market analysis and informed decision-making. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of WTI Crude Oil trading to provide you with valuable insights and a sophisticated outlook on the current market.
Decoding the WTI Crude Oil Market
M ACD Indicator Insights: The WTI Crude Oil market has witnessed a bearish trend since September 28, 2023, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) at the bottom of the chart. While MACD continues to display bearish signals, it's vital to remember that this is a lagging indicator, reflecting historical trends. As sophisticated investors, we must recognize that historical behavior does not guarantee future outcomes. The world and its dynamics are in a constant state of flux, with each trading day being a unique entity shaped by ever-evolving global events.
D eep Neural Analytics Perspective: Here's where our analysis takes an intriguing turn. Deep Neural Analytics suggests the possibility of WTI Crude Oil being oversold. Historically, when MACD levels have reached this point, a bullish pull-up often follows. However, it's important to approach this insight cautiously. Global news and unforeseen developments can significantly impact oil markets. While historic trends provide valuable guidance, they are not absolute predictors of future behavior.
T he Support Zone: According to volume metrics, the current support zone (indicated by the upper blue rectangle) ranging from $77 to $84 also serves as a demand zone. If market sentiment remains positive and bearish news doesn't disrupt the status quo, this zone could transition into a consolidation platform. A consolidation zone acts as a springboard for investors to accumulate positions and potentially drive the price to the next resistance zone, which might fall within the range of $94 to $100 (as depicted by the purple rectangle).
A lternative Scenarios: If buyers fail to sustain the current support zone, or if external factors challenge investor sentiment, the next potential demand zone lies between $63.5 and $71 (as illustrated by the bottom blue rectangle). Should this scenario unfold, it would necessitate a reassessment to determine its suitability for a possible reversal. Theoretically, if oil doesn't reverse from the current demand zone, it could find its turning point in the alternate demand zone. These scenarios, however, are long-term considerations, while the current situation sees oil consistently falling below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) like EMA 20/50/100/200.
U nderstanding Sustainability: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicators play a pivotal role in comprehending the sustainability of trends. Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) applied to EMAs and oil prices suggest that the bearish trend may persist until February 2024 or potentially longer. Despite MACD indicating that oil is oversold, GBMs on EMAs advise against forecasting an immediate bullish trend. This underscores the importance of not relying solely on one indicator.
The Road Ahead
I n the realm of WTI Crude Oil trading, informed decision-making is key. The markets are driven by a complex interplay of variables, making the role of a sophisticated investor all the more crucial. Without bullish news and indicators, WTI Crude Oil continues to display bearish tendencies and may maintain this trajectory for the foreseeable future.
Remember, this analysis serves as a guide, not an investment recommendation. Conduct thorough research, safeguard your funds, and take full responsibility for your investment choices. The dynamic nature of financial markets requires vigilance, and with the right insights, you can navigate the WTI Crude Oil landscape with confidence and wisdom.
Kind regards,
Ely
USOIL option sentiment based on CME data analysisA big "butterfly" was detected in the January oil contract, which is a directional strategy with a target of $90, also known as the previous local maximum.
It's important to note that this strategy appeared after a 4.7% decrease and when the 90 price was significantly lower and oversold for our mysterious participant, let's call him "X".
*********To summarize, such a situation can be interpreted as clearly positive. However, it is worth waiting for additional confirming factors. Do not hurry to open longs right now!
WTI Crude oil front expiration - last updateOverview:
EIA data and OPEC+ meeting postponed,
make tumble the market.
My dear volatility!!!
Strategy:
Neutral. Follow the market.
Our current position's Delta @$76.39: 0.03
This are all the corrections we made today
5)rebalance: @$76.39 (from 0.23 to 0.03)
4)rebalance: @$75.70 (from 0.62 to 0.03)
3)rebalance: @$73.90 (from -21 to 0.30)
2)rebalance: @$74.50 (from -0.30 to 0.05)
1)rebalance: @$76.10 (from +0.28 to +0.03)
rebalance: @$75.45 (from -0.58 to +0.06)
Technical signals:
RSI positive signal just if cross
in positive area
Stochastic still in negative area.
Trends analysis:
primary(purple): corrective structure wave A
intermediate(green): corrective structure wave B
minor(yellow): corrective structure wave C close
Bullish targets:
first@ $77.00
second@ $78.70
Mandatory rebalance level
/Stop loss: not set
Bearish targets:
first@ $75.00
second@ $73.90
Crude oil looks set to bounce ahead of OPECWith oil prices having fallen around -25% from the September high, a correction higher may be due.
And as prices failed to hold beneath $70, Wednesday's bullish hammer (which is also a higher low) has caught out eye). The hammer was coupled with above-average volume to suggest demand around $75, and the initial break below $70 was seen on strong negative delta (more sellers than buyers) which means the subsequent move higher likely forced them to cover and reconsider their direction.
A move towards $75 could help improve the reward to risk ration for an anticipate move to $80, a break above which brings $82 into focus just beneath the January and April highs.
USOIL (CRUDE OIL ) SELL ON REJECTION HELLO TRADERS !!!
As i can see CRUDE OIL 🛢️
The anticipated OPEC+ meeting set for this weekend to a postponement to Nov 30th. The delay stemmed from challenging discussion between Saudi's and fellow members regarding oil production levels....
Saudi Arabia currently implements an additional 1 Million barrel per day output cut since July engaged in talks without specifying the cause for the delay....
Recently weeks have seen oil prices fluctuate amir signs of expending supply.....
CRUDE OIL 🛢️ INVENTORIES ROSE 8.70 MILLION BARREL
while this presents another bearish factor 🔥
and technically it is showing us a rejection here on a fake breakout of trend line so we planing for these design TP and expected more fall in USOil its just an trade idea do a proper analysis before trade on ur real account share ur trade idea with us it will help alote the trader community
WTI Crude oil front expiration - last updateOverview:
Another massive build on API crude oil stocks,
conflicting with a big distillate inventory draw,
and next Sunday OPEC+ meeting are the main
factors driving the market to a stall
awaiting the official EIA data scheduled today.
Strategy:
Neutral following the market.
Our current position's Delta: -0.09 barely negative
Last rebalance: at $77.87 from +0.19.
Technical signals:
RSI still in neutral area.
Trends analysis:
primary(purple): corrective structure wave A
intermediate(green): corrective structure wave B
minor(yellow): corrective structure wave B
Bullish targets:
first@ $79.00
second@ $79.80/$80.00
Mandatory rebalance level
/Stop loss: as we are neutral our system
doesn't set any level.
Bearish targets:
first@ $76.00/$75.40
second@ $74.70/ $73.90
WTI Crude oil front expiration - Last updateOverview:
Awaiting the FOMC minutes and
API crude oil stocks
Strategy:
Our current position's Delta: +0.10
(rebalanced at $77.18
from -0.73). Follow the market.
Technical signals:
Stochastic crossed the signal but still in negative
territory, RSI in neutral area.
Trends analysis:
primary(purple): corrective structure wave A
intermediate(green): corrective structure wave B
minor(yellow): corrective structure wave A
Bullish targets:
first@ $78.80/$79.00
second@ $79.70/$80.00
Mandatory rebalance level
/Stop loss: as we are neutral is not set
Bearish targets:
first@ $76.80
second@ $75.80/$75.60
WTI Crude Oil front expiration: Navigating Correction and TargetThe WTI crude oil market experienced a robust response, essentially reversing the downward trend observed on Thursday's session. Currently, the market is exhibiting a corrective structure, and we are monitoring whether it follows a pattern of 3 waves (ABC) or 5 waves (ABCDE).
As of our current position, the delta stands at -0.03, indicating a neutral stance.
The bullish outlook has seen success with the attainment of the target at $76.00 indicated in the previous report, if the upward pressure would persist, the next targets are located on $77.50 as first and at $78.50 as second.
It's essential to note that, as our position is currently neutral, our trading system doesn't set any rebalancing level or stop loss.
On the bearish side, the initial target is set at $75.00, followed by the second target at $73.90.
In simpler terms, the market initially faced a downturn but has since shown signs of correction. Our position is currently delta neutral, with specific target levels for both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Crude oil bearish
After failing to break through 80 this week, crude oil fell again to around 75.56 after the US EIA inventory data emerged yesterday. There is currently no good news for crude oil in the market.
The overall trend of crude oil is very weak, showing a slow falling trend. After breaking above the moving average, oil prices did not stand firm but fell back and fell below again. The pressure on the daily line is still very strong.
Crude oil is currently bearish, and you can pay attention to trading in the 73.5-77.8 range.
WTI bears eye a move down to $80Last week's swing trade to $90 worked out well, yet momentum ha since shifted lower.
I noted in the recent COT report that managed funds and large speculators have been trimming long exposure in recent weeks, and that managed funds increased short exposure last week despite the slew of negative headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. This also coincided with the two small bullish weekly candles, which appeared to be corrective on the weekly chart - and therfore suggests lower prices.
A lower high has formed below $90 and momentum turned lower. As support has been found around the Jan/April highs, we suspect a bounce is due. And this could allow bears to fade into favourable prices below $87 - $87.50 on the assumption a breakdown is pending ahead of its move to $80.
Should this be part of a larger decline, note that $75 and $70 are near the 100% and 138.2% Fibonacci projection levels on the daily chart.
WTI Crude oil front expirationOverview: with today's fall in price, having reached $73.80 support area, and with a divergence on RSI, we consider close the corrective structure ABC on the daily time frame.
Strategy: Moderate bullish position's delta ,
Our current position's delta: +0.30
Bullish first target: $75.00/$75.30
Bullish second target: $76.00
Mandatory rebalancing level / Stop loss: on breakout of the daily's low
Bearish first target: $73.00
Bearish second target: $72.20
