No More Crude Deals!Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been pouring a little too much oil over troubled waters especially as far as the Saudis are concerned. With Moscow pumping cheap crude into the market, downward pressure on the commodity has seen it break and close below a key break-even level for Saudi Arabia. Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman has scheduled a list of 15 upcoming giga-projects that are intended to transform the kingdom’s economy over the next 10 years. Investment is going to run into the billions and the budget requires oil prices to be above $81 per barrel. An $81 hard floor is essential as attracting significant foreign investment for these giga-projects is proving very difficult.
Earlier in the year, Saudi Arabia’s attempts to push oil prices higher by cutting back on production were rendered meaningless by Russia flooding the market with cheap oil despite an earlier promise to also hold back on increased production. This is part of a historical and, it seems, ongoing oil production related geopolitical conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia (the Russia-Saudi oil price war). Oil prices have been in a sustained downtrend since the March 2022 peak with crown prince Salman getting a major scare in May this year when WTI and Brent crude hit a low of $63 and $71 respectively. A break and close below those levels would have created a cascade of investors exiting the market. Price however rebounded from those lows to consolidate within a tight range.
OPEC+ met over the weekend with Saudi Arabia announcing that it will cut production by 1 million barrels a day in order to help prop up price. However, any idea of a done deal that will provide a clear direction for the near and medium-term price of crude should be treated with a healthy dose of scepticism. The Saudis did force some of the less influential members of OPEC+, such as Nigeria and Angola, to reduce quotas from next year but Russia following suit remains “under review” pending further analysis of current output. That’s code to describe how the Saudis and Russians are still fighting with each other to get what each side needs. The post-COVID pandemic world is a much trickier place for oil men and women to cut deals than before. The process of negotiating deals before the pandemic was positively crude compared to the headache-inducing complexity caused by the asymmetrical and mercurial nature of deals in the new geopolitical landscape.
The invasion of Ukraine has weakened a Russian economy that desperately needs to find extra revenue to sustain the war effort whilst the Saudis are trying to diversify their economy away from oil by embarking on a series of hugely ambitious and expensive giga-projects. Those two aims are diametrically opposed as far as the output of crude is concerned. The Saudis on the one hand are trying to convince the Russians to stick to their agreement to cut production whilst at the same time planning to further reduce the price of their Arab light grade for customers in Asia. Saudi Arabia has cut the price of oil it sells to its Asian buyers several times already this year in a bid to try and secure its market share in the Asia region that has now become the largest importer of Russian crude. The Saudis are also in talks with the “BRICS bank” for membership and will need the Russians on side at that table, adding to the frustration of how aggressive they can be in convincing the Russians to cut crude production.
We remain long-term bullish on crude with buys from strategic dips being the best play but please be mindful of any potential near-term breaks to the downside. We will be posting levels for intra-day traders in the future. Remember, that when you go to the market, be careful out there.
