WTI CRUDE OIL: Formed a Megaphone. Buy signal.WTI Crude Oil formed a Megaphone pattern and is now near its bottom with the 4H time frame on oversold technicals (RSI = 27.320, MACD = -1.180, ADX = 31.676). This is a short term buy signal, targeting the top of the Megaphone, 1D MA100 and 0.618 Fibonacci Resistance Zone (TP = 75.00). A breaks under the Megaphone and S1 targets S2 (TP = 63.65).
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Wticrudeoil
WTI OIL Sell now and buy back on this levelWTI Crude Oil had a heavy rejection on the MA50 (1d) that broke today Support (1).
The selling can extend beyong Support (2) before we get a new buy signal on the (1d) time frame.
The long term pattern remains a Channel Down and every MA50/100/200 (1d) test is a sell opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy at 66.00.
Targets:
1. 66.00 (Fibonacci 0.1 as it happened on January 5th, a similar fractal).
2. 75.00 (the MA100 (1d)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is under its MA level, which is exactly what happened on January 5th on the short term Low. If the RSI crosses back above its MA, it will be a confirmed buy signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
WTI CRUDE OIL: Strong short term buy.WTI Crude Oil hit the bottom of its short term Channel Up, breaking under the 4H MA50 and MA100 after forming a Bullish Cross. With the 4H technicals turning red (RSI = 42.535, MACD = 0.300, ADX = 23.704) we have the conditions for a short term buy opportunity. Our target is the 1D MA100 which is sitting on the 0.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 75.50). The last 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross resulted in the market peak on the 1D MA200.
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WTI OIL Hit the MA50 (1d). Selling action plan.WTI Crude Oil hit the MA50 (1d) today after 3 weeks.
Inside this multi month Channel Down, the strongest Resistance-Sell entry level has been the MA100 (1d).
Max level it reached before getting rejected as the MA200 (1d) on April 12th.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the MA100 (1d) at 75.80.
2. Sell on the MA200 (1d) at 79.00.
Targets:
1. and 2. 70.00 (over Support 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is showing a price action on a slow rise over its MA, similar to December 15th and January 11th. This is an additional indicator showing that the top is near.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISCrude oil: gaining on lower inventories
While the broader macro conditions remained complex as hawkish Fed speak and debt ceiling deadlock weighed, crude oil prices managed to inch higher and start the week on a positive note after heavy selling both in paper and physical market over the last few weeks. Supply side news remain mixed with Russian exports remaining firm while OPEC’s early April production cut is only now starting to be felt. Extreme heat across Asia has ramped up demand for fuel oil to run air conditioning and lights while oil traders will be on alert for comments scheduled later today from Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman at the Qatar Economic Forum, especially following the recent jump in short selling by funds to levels seen before the April 2 production cut.
WTI OIL Triangle closing decides the trend.WTI Oil (USOIL) has easily hit our short-term target (see chart below) and is now consolidating:
This consolidation is being done within a Triangle pattern, which as we saw on Friday it remained valid despite the fact that the price broke marginally above it, as the 4H candle closed eventually back inside it. This suggests that the (currently neutral trend) will change only when we have a 4H candle closing outside of the Triangle.
If that is above it, then we will buy and target within the 76.50 Resistance and the 4H MA200 at 75.50. If it closes to the downside, we will sell towards the Support and target 68.00. The fact that the 1D RSI is above its MA line, indicates that the bullish case is slightly favored.
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BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISOil prices have remained under pressure over the past month, with Brent crude falling 13.6% amid recession fears in the US and weaker-than-expected economic data out of China. Still-elevated Russian exports and the sizable inventory build at the start of this year due to a milder winter in the Northern Hemisphere have also played a role.
We now see the Brent price reaching USD 95 a barrel by the end of this year, down from our previous forecast of USD 105/bbl, as we expect Russian oil output to stay at around 9.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) instead of 9mbpd in the second half of this year.
However, this means an upside of over 25% from current levels. We still see several main reasons to expect the oil market to be under supplied in coming months:
The International Energy Agency sees robust global oil demand. In its latest monthly oil market report published this week, the Paris-based agency raised its forecast for global 2023 oil demand by 100,000bpd to 102mbpd. It also anticipated tighter market balances in the second half of the year, “when demand is expected to eclipse supply by almost 2mbpd.” While our own forecast puts current global demand at around 101mbpd, we see higher demand in June, boosted by the driving season in the US and more oil being used to generate power to cool down buildings in the Middle East. In fact, we expect the oil market to be undersupplied by nearly 1.5mbpd next month.
Inventory draws are set to be more visible in the months ahead. The US Department of Energy said earlier this week that it plans to purchase 3 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for delivery in August, after a record sale last year that pushed the level of the reserve to the lowest since 1983. It remains to be seen whether the tender will be concluded, but we expect to see larger inventory draws as the Northern Hemisphere enters summer while the impact of strategic oil reserve release fades.
OPEC+ cuts should tighten the market further amid other supply constraints. The voluntary output cut by nine OPEC+ members this month should continue to tighten the market, while wildfires in Canada’s primary oil-producing province Alberta has forced shutdowns of oil and gas production. Iraq’s total oil exports this month are also likely to be limited amid continued suspension of production in the north. We anticipate oil production will fall back toward 100mbpd in May from around 101mbpd in 1Q23.
A tighter market should convince financial investors to return to the oil market, thus supporting prices. So, we maintain our most-preferred rating on oil alongside our positive stance on broad commodities. We continue to advise risk-taking investors to add long exposure via first-generation indexes or longer-dated Brent contracts, or to sell Brent’s downside price risk. We also see value in emerging market energy bonds for an attractive yield pickup versus developed market government and investment grade debt.
WTI CRUDE OIL Confirmed buy opportunityWTI Crude Oil is rebounding on the Rising Support, internally inside the Channel Down pattern.
The 1day RSI remains under 50.00, so there is still time to buy this bullish wave to the top of the Channel Down.
Target the 1day MA100 at 76.00.
Open 1st Sell there and 2nd (if required) on the 1day MA200 (which formed the previous top) at 79.50. Target on both Support A at 64.50.
Additional indicator to sell, when the 1day RSI hits 60.00.
Previous chart:
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Triangle breakout revealing the trend.WTI Crude Oil is failing on the 4H MA50 and maintains a dangerous Triangle on the 4H timeframe on neutral technicals (RSI = 44.789, MACD = -0.040, ADX = 23.667) which can breakout either way.
So far it is supported by an HL trendline like the March pattern but if this breaks, which would mean downward breakout for the Triangle, we will sell, after the 4H MA50 gets rejected as a Resistance, and target the S1 (TP = 64.00).
If the Triangle breaks upwards, we will buy and target the 4H MA200 (TP = 76.00).
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US Crude oil heading for $90In the current situation of global energy crisis, Target of $90 for WTI Crude oil seems pretty legit in the coming month and if situation worsen then $110 for sure in coming 6 months
Reasons for bull run:
- energy crisis leading to low supply high demand
- big volume coming in bullish rally than in the downfall in intraday chart
- No positive news to overcome the supply issue
WTI breaks out ahead of US inflation dataWe suspect volatility may be on the quiet side with a US inflation report looming, but this provides the opportunity for markets to consolidate and traders plan trades.
Should we see the pace of inflation to continue slowing, it could strengthen oil prices for two basic reasons.
1 - A weaker US dollar, as traders bring forward rate cut bets / solidifies bets of 5.25% peak rate
2 - Reduces the odds of a recession and increases oil demand expectations
The softer inflation is, the stronger the bullish reaction for oil could be expected.
- WTI futures closed above trend resistance following a bull-flag breakout, which was accompanied by positive-delta volume during the rally to recent highs.
- Prices are now consolidating, but we'd welcome a pullback towards $73 to buy dips in anticipation of a breakout above $74.
- Initial target is $76 (near the upper daily ADR band)
- A move to (and beyond) $77 could be on the cards if we're treated to a weaker-than-expected inflation report
- The bias remains bullish above $72.50
WTI CRUDE OIL Still with bullish momentum but sell at the topWTI Crude Oil is one of the best performing assets for us (check previous ideas) and is now rebounding to the 1day MA100 at least.
Buy this short term momentum and add one sell at 76.50 and a second at 79.50, approximately on the 1day MA200.
Note that a 1day RSI at around 60.00 is most often a Sell Signal.
Long term sell Target 64.50.
Previous chart:
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Any pull back is a bargain to buy.WTI Crude Oil delivered what was expected, it hit our long term TP = 66.00 and is rebounding after a new Lower Low at 63.65 (S1). The 1D RSI is still very low (35.546) while the 4H technicals just got out of their yesterday's remarkably oversold condition (RSI = 36.200, MACD = -1.970, ADX = 63.277). Our short term target is the 0.382 Fibonacci (TP = 71.25) and medium term the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 75.50).
We don't rule out one last pull back and if it happens it will be another bargain to buy low, as it was on March 20th. Regardless of that, the 4H MA50 is always a candidate for rebounds and it can match the 71.25 short term target ideally.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Aggressive sellingWTI Crude Oil is on a strong selloff that was accurately anticipated by our firm on the 1D MA200 rejection, making a LH on the long term Channel Down and providing us with the most optimal sell entry. The 4H technicals are oversold but the 1D remains on standard bearish price action (RSI = 42.644, MACD = 0.240, ADX = 42.786) and we don't expect this selling to take a pause before the 1D RSI tests the S1 (39.50).
Our short term target has always been 74.00 and after a short lived rebound we expect 72.00. Unless 1D closes a candle above the 1D MA50, in which case a bigger rebound is possible to 80.00 before an even deeper fall to 66.00.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Testing critical Support (formerly a Resistance).The WTI Crude Oil is on the 1day MA100, a level that was formerly a Resistance since deep into 2022.
This is the first time it is being tested as a Support in such a long time.
Holding it will retest the 1day MA200.
If it breaks along with the 1day MA50, target the Rising Support at 70.00.
Previous chart:
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WTI may bounce off the support!!Instruments : WTI
Possible direction : Bullish
Technical Analysis : Early this month WTI opened with big gap up and signaling possible trend change. After long consolidation, WTI filled the gap and currently bouncing off the support level. It is highly likely that WTI may change trend and continue to uprise. A bullish trade is high probable.
Possible trade recommendation : Bullish as per sketch.
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WTI OIL Filling the downside gap but short-term rebound.The WTI Oil (USOIL) got, as we expected, heavily rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), starting to fill the gap of March:
Our next target is 74.00, just above the Pivot Zone, but on the short-term, with the 4H RSI rebounding after getting oversold (has given a 100% buy signal short-term in the past 4 months), we expect a rise towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for rejection.
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