WTI CRUDE OIL Bearish under the 1day MA50WTI Crude Oil closed yesterday under the 1day MA50 and inside this long term Triangle pattern, turned bearish, aiming at its bottom.
The RSI's Rectangle shows where to take profit (on its bottom), with our projection giving a 74.50 Target.
That is over the 0.786 Fibonacci and the botom zone of the Triangle.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Wticrudeoil
Waiting for a rebound to go short.
In the early Asian session, US oil traded near $77.20 per barrel. On Tuesday, crude oil plummeted more than 4%, affected by Chairman Powell's speech exacerbating concerns about interest rate hikes and a stronger dollar. Powell stated to lawmakers on Tuesday that the Fed may need to raise interest rates more than expected to respond to strong recent data, which led to a downturn in most financial markets. Today, shorting is favored in crude oil. Strategy suggestion: Sell crude oil near $78.3-$78.5 with a stop loss at $79.2 and a target near $76. I will also give an alert once it reaches the target.
Follow me to make trading simpler.
TVC:USOIL FXOPEN:XAUUSD
Buy crude oil at 78.5.
Trading is about making profits, not about venting frustration or trading for the sake of trading. Therefore, traders must understand what stage the price is at and take appropriate actions. Traders are neither always long nor always short, but always adapt to changes in the market. Traders must have their own defense system to control risks. Risk control and capital management are essential in your trading.
On Friday, oil prices recovered from a brief sell-off, rising more than $1 and the weekly chart also showed an increase, boosted by new optimism surrounding demand from the largest oil importing countries. Friday saw a large bullish rally, closing at a high level, while on Monday prices weakened during trading.
Regarding operations, the key point to watch above the crude oil price is near the 80.5 level, which can serve as a reference for selling. Looking below, the support near the 78.5 level is a good point to buy in with a small position, while the strong support at the 77 level can be a point to buy in with a large position.
Feel free to leave comments and discuss, follow me to make trading easier.
USOIL: Long position at 79.5
Over the past two weeks, international oil prices have continued to fluctuate upwards, despite the negative signals from changes in US crude oil inventories and little impact on Russian crude oil exports from sanctions. However, these pressures have been unable to overshadow the positive impact of China's economic recovery and resilient risk appetite on oil prices.
The supply gap caused by Russian sanctions on crude oil has been a concern for investors and an important factor supporting oil prices. According to recent media reports, the CEO of crude oil trader Gunvor Group has stated that price ceilings and export bans have not interrupted Russian crude oil exports, and there is an "uncontrolled fleet" shipping Russian crude oil outside the control of Europe and the United States.
Contrary to the negative factors mentioned above, China's economic recovery is one of the important positive factors for international oil prices. Apart from immediate indicators such as the recovery of transportation observed by the market after the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures, some recognized economic data have confirmed the strong rebound of China's economy, such as the official PMI and Caixin PMI last week. Goldman Sachs previously predicted that as China's economy recovers, oil prices may return to $100 per barrel.
China's latest trade data released today showed a trade surplus of $116.88 billion for January-February, down 6.8% year-on-year, better than the expected decline of 9.4%; imports fell by 10.2% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 5.5%. From the sub-item data, China's crude oil imports in January-February fell by 1.25% year-on-year (about 1.07 million tons), but imports of refined oil increased by 14.4% year-on-year (about 0.67 million tons). The recent strong risk appetite has also provided support for the rise of international oil prices.
The daily chart shows that crude oil has broken through the downtrend line starting from January 27th, and after yesterday's fluctuations, it has broken through the 80 level, which may open up space for further upward movement. Although there may be adjustments during the day, if it can hold the support near the 80 level, it will maintain the prospect of further bullishness. If expectations are met, subsequent upward movements will target the recent months' high of 83 and the downward pressure line since July last year of 84.
Personal trading recommendation: Enter a long position near $79.5, with the first target at $81.5 and the second target at $82.5. Whether crude oil can effectively stand above $80 in the near future is crucial. If there are any changes in the market situation, I will update it in a timely manner. Please continue to follow my strategy and leave me a message if you have any questions. I hope this can help everyone.
WTI CRUDE OIL Sell SignalWTI Crude Oil reached Resistance Zone (1).
Breaking above the Declining Resistance resembles late January.
Limited upside to Resistance Zone (2) based on the past 4 months.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 74.00 (over Support Zone 1).
Tips:
1. The MACD is also inside its 3 month Resistance Zone. The next Bear Cross will confirm the downtrend.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
This is an extension of this trading plan:
WTI CRUDE OIL: Sell signal as it approaches the 3 month ResistanWTI Crude Oil hit all upside targets, even broke over the 1D MA100 that has been untouched since January 27th and as it approaches R1, sell signals start flashing. The 1D technicals (RSI = 60.222, MACD = 0.430, ADX = 18.663), especially the RSI is on its highest level in 4 months. This is already good enough for our strategy to start building up sell positions.
For short term traders P1 and the 1D MA50 are always the best target zone. For us it is the previous low above S1 that we will target (TP = 74.00).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Specific analysis and ideas of crude oilThe biggest mistake in life is constantly worrying about making mistakes. The greatest sadness in life is not losing too much, but caring too much. This is also a major reason why a person is unhappy.
Last Friday, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal, there were internal discussions within one of the OPEC member countries, the United Arab Emirates, about the possibility of exiting OPEC. The report indicated that there are significant differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on various issues, including production capacity releases, competition for foreign investment, and the conflict in Yemen.
The market is concerned that if the United Arab Emirates were to exit OPEC, it would directly undermine the overall influence of OPEC. As a result, WTI crude oil was hit, dropping by 2.7% to $75.83. As a consequence, our previous bearish view on crude oil has yielded good results, and we hope everyone has gained profits. However, later, UAE officials denied the aforementioned report, stating that the UAE has no plans to exit OPEC. As a result, WTI crude oil quickly rebounded, recovering all losses and rising to $79.9, approaching the $80 mark.
Many people are now concerned about whether they should chase the rise of crude oil. Indeed, the decisions made by OPEC member countries will affect the trend of crude oil. Considering that the main disagreement driving the oil market currently is the demand outlook, and in the context of Russia's production cut in March, OPEC+ maintains a strong influence on the market. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices rebounded quickly after the UAE denied its exit from OPEC. However, investors should pay attention to the relationship between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
With the expectation of a recovery in demand, oil prices are expected to break out of their three-month consolidation range. According to some reports and data, a medium to long-term upward trend in oil prices may have been established, but the process is unlikely to be smooth. From a medium to long-term perspective, the upward trend in oil prices is expected to be established, but considering that US service sector inflation remains high and is difficult to quickly fall back in the short term, this will exacerbate the risk of economic recession in the US and thus impact demand prospects.
Investors this week should pay particular attention to the semi-annual monetary policy testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in both houses of Congress, as well as key events such as US non-farm payrolls for February, China's trade balance, CPI and PPI, M2 and social financing data, which are expected to have an impact on oil prices in the future.
Technical analysis:
The daily chart shows that WTI crude oil stabilized above $77.0 and further rebounded to touch the $80 level, indicating that the bulls have further upward momentum. It is expected to break through the consolidation range of the past three months ($73.0-$83.0). The author maintains a cautious bullish view on oil prices.
If the oil price breaks above $83.0, it may open up further upside potential, and even have the potential to test the $100 level in the medium term. However, if the oil price falls below $73.0, it is necessary to be vigilant about the possibility of further downside and a potential test of the key support level of $70.
Operation idea:
The main strategy is to buy on dips, and it's also possible to chase the price higher when it breaks through 82. Given the unclear news, it's important to control the position size.
USOIL stuck between $70 and $82A month ago, we noted that USOIL would likely stay stuck within the wide range between $70 and $82. We outlined several developments that pointed to a neutral trend and said that even if the price fell below $70, we would expect it to be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) near that price tag. A week later, the U.S. announced it would release 26 million barrels of crude oil into the market (in line with its mandate). However, based on the publicly available data, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves have remained unchanged since the start of 2023, at 371.58 million barrels. That indicates U.S. officials are waiting for a higher oil price at which they could unload their reserves at a profit. With the price of USOIL approaching $80 per barrel, this event might not be that far away. Our view has not changed; we still expect the oil price to stay choppy within the wide range for an unforeseeable future.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL within the wide range and two simple moving averages. Previously, we said that the flattening of these moving averages indicated a neutral trend.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOUSD Daily: 22/02/2023: Will buyers push the price up?
As you can see, the price is in the bearish structure and we expect the price to see lower levels. I am bearish till the price is below the weekly resistance.
But for now, we can see that price move in the trading range for a while and it means there is huge liquidity on both sides of this range.
In addition, we are under 50% of the previous bearish wave so we are in discount and searching for a buy setup.
In that case, from here or low time frame demand zone with low time frame confirmation we can go long.
our first target can be the supply zone and then 50% Fibo level and finally, above 83.31 we can close our position.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️22/02/2023
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
WTI: It all comes down to the green… 💵🌿It all comes down to the green . This saying is especially true for WTI as it has yet to dive into the green zone between $70.12 and $35.77. To get this done, the course should push further off the upper side of the turquoise trend channel and drop below the support at $70.08. This should grant WTI direct access to the green zone, where it should finish wave 2 in green before heading northwards again. However, a 32% chance remains that WTI could turn upwards and climb above the resistance at $82.64, in which case the course would develop wave alt.(b) in blue above the upper resistance line at $93.74 first before resuming the descent.
WTI OILWTI Oil, a benchmark for crude oil prices, has been gradually rising recently, indicating an uptrend in the market. By analyzing the available charts, it is possible to identify entry points for traders to buy at the same time as identifying an exit point.
To further refine the strategy, traders can use different technical indicators to help them make informed decisions. One potential approach involves looking for a little pullback on the middle trendline, which can serve as a testing ground for a "BUY" signal.
Overall, this strategy can be effective for traders looking to capitalize on the current trend in the WTI Oil market. By carefully monitoring the charts and utilizing appropriate indicators, traders can identify optimal entry and exit points to maximize their profits.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Tight Triangle short.The WTI Crude Oil is trading between the 4H MA200 and 4H MA50 with the price range tightening in February as the upside is limited to Lower Highs (LH) and the downside to Higher Lows (HL). The old Pivot (P1) is exactly on the 4H MA200 and we are waiting to short this, aiming at the HL (TP = 74.85). If it fails, we will wait until it hits R1 to short back to P1.
Under the Triangle, TP = S1 and 70.25 (S2).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
WTI crude bearish, $73 and $70
Could Russia cut production more than expected? Oil prices rose against market trends under supply-side pressure, with a 10-year US Treasury bond yield approaching 4% and the US dollar breaking through 105. Could the Federal Reserve raise interest rates to 6.5%? The WTI crude oil market is facing a critical decision!
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil has remained under pressure since failing to break above the $80 level, with a continuous decline and a limited range between $73.0 and $83.0. There is a possibility of further downside testing the support level below the key $70 mark.
In the short term, WTI crude oil has not yet completely shaken off its bearish trend. If the price falls below $73.0, there is a risk of further testing the previous low of $70.0.
Please hit the follow button to keep up with our updates and maintain your reading habit. If you agree with our views, please click the rocket to show your support.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1! NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! MATBAROFEX:WTI1!
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailDespite starting the week on a bullish note, fresh new anxieties over inflation and rate hikes rippled across the market and this development resulted in participants dumping their long positions on the US Oil. With continued selling pressure below the key level at $80.00 level, buying opportunity might likely be on hold in the coming week until there are clear signs that support positive feedback from Chinese import data following the lifting of its COVID restrictions. In this video, we looked at the market structure from a technical standpoint and indications suggest continued selling pressure as long as the price remains below the $80 level.
00:50 Reference to last week's daily commentaries and results
05:25 USOil Technical analysis on Daily chart
10:20 USOil Technical analysis on 4H Timeframe against next week
11:35 Conclusion on next week's expectation for the USOil
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
WTI OIL Two break-out buy signals11 days ago we took the best possible sell entry we could have as we shorted the exact top, calling for the best sell opportunity since December:
Right now the price is on a strong rebound, slightly higher than Support 1 (73.25) but with the 1D RSI on a confirmed reversal within its range. If you missed the bottom buy opportunity, wait for a 4H candle closing above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as this was a confirmed buy opportunity on all previous three occasions (circles). First target at 78.50 and if the price closes above the Lower Highs (dashed) trend-line, we will re-buy targeting 80.00.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
WTI CRUDE OIL can rise in the next 2 months back to $110 accordiWTI Crude Oil has been trading in the past two months on the Rising Support that emerged on the March 2021 Low. The longer it holds, the more likely a medium term (2 month) rebound is, back to the Resistance Zone and $110.
The reversal on the 1week MACD also supports that.
If the Rising Support breaks, the 1week MA200 will be the last level of Support before the Oil market collapses long term to the $35 Support Zone.
P.S. Short term still looks like the analysis below:
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
WTI CRUDE OIL Approaching the 3month buy zoneWTI Crude Oil got rejected on Resistance Zone 1 and is now about to enter Support Zone 1.
This is a Buy Zone that has only been breached once in the last 3 months (since November 28th).
The only breach that took place formed Support 2.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy upon entering Support Zone 1.
2. Buy at 70.50 (slightly above Support 2).
Targets:
1. 80.50 (slightly below Resistance Zone 1).
2. 77.50 (slightly below Mid-level structure that was the first stop of the December 9th rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD 4H has also a very clear Support and Resistance Zone. It is not yet near the Support Zone, which gives more probabilities to the price approaching Support 2 before a rebound. keep an eye if it reverses earlier.
Please like, follow and comment!!
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKUS YoY CPI came above expectations yesterday, which led to expectations of further push of the prices. Although US Oil cushion reserve came above expectations, OPEC reported declined production of the month of January, and the expectations are for further increase of global demand for the crude oil.
On the 1H graph the price had broke the resistance of the Flag pattern, suggesting a start of a bullish movement, where, if continues, the price might test levels of 79.63
In the opposite scenario the price might fall to levels of 79.03
Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the bullish scenario.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Oil grows bearish but SPR refill loomsDespite OPEC cutting its output by an estimated 60 000 barrels per day in January 2023, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil dropped more than 10% from its high of $82.60. This price action follows a series of wild swings within the wide range between $70 and $83. We expect high volatility in the oil market to persist in the first quarter of 2023. Indeed, we think there is a high likelihood of USOIL falling below $70. However, with the U.S. administration seeking to refill its SPR, such a price drop is likely to be short-lived. As conclusion, we think oil will remain stuck within the wide range for a while longer.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. Since mid-November 2022, the price can be seen trading within the wide range between $70 and $83.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate two technical developments which contradict each other. The first is a bullish crossover between 20-day and 50-day SMAs; the second is the subsequent price drop below these moving averages. These false and contradictory signals are common for moving averages when the price trends sideways.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price breaks below Support 1, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI CRUDE OIL Last push before rejectionThe WTI Crude Oil failed to break over the 4hour MA100 but the subsequent rejection tested and held the 4hour MA50. This is a sign that the short term Channel Up remains valid. However the 4hour RSI break below its MA level potentially indicates that this is the last push before it peaks. This has been a valid signal since December 1st.
Our Target is 81.00 (under Resistance A) and for the reversal our sell's Target is 76.90 (above Support A).
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!