WTI CRUDE OIL: Tight Triangle short.The WTI Crude Oil is trading between the 4H MA200 and 4H MA50 with the price range tightening in February as the upside is limited to Lower Highs (LH) and the downside to Higher Lows (HL). The old Pivot (P1) is exactly on the 4H MA200 and we are waiting to short this, aiming at the HL (TP = 74.85). If it fails, we will wait until it hits R1 to short back to P1.
Under the Triangle, TP = S1 and 70.25 (S2).
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Wticrudeoil
WTI crude bearish, $73 and $70
Could Russia cut production more than expected? Oil prices rose against market trends under supply-side pressure, with a 10-year US Treasury bond yield approaching 4% and the US dollar breaking through 105. Could the Federal Reserve raise interest rates to 6.5%? The WTI crude oil market is facing a critical decision!
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil has remained under pressure since failing to break above the $80 level, with a continuous decline and a limited range between $73.0 and $83.0. There is a possibility of further downside testing the support level below the key $70 mark.
In the short term, WTI crude oil has not yet completely shaken off its bearish trend. If the price falls below $73.0, there is a risk of further testing the previous low of $70.0.
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MCX:CRUDEOIL1! NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! MATBAROFEX:WTI1!
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailDespite starting the week on a bullish note, fresh new anxieties over inflation and rate hikes rippled across the market and this development resulted in participants dumping their long positions on the US Oil. With continued selling pressure below the key level at $80.00 level, buying opportunity might likely be on hold in the coming week until there are clear signs that support positive feedback from Chinese import data following the lifting of its COVID restrictions. In this video, we looked at the market structure from a technical standpoint and indications suggest continued selling pressure as long as the price remains below the $80 level.
00:50 Reference to last week's daily commentaries and results
05:25 USOil Technical analysis on Daily chart
10:20 USOil Technical analysis on 4H Timeframe against next week
11:35 Conclusion on next week's expectation for the USOil
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
WTI OIL Two break-out buy signals11 days ago we took the best possible sell entry we could have as we shorted the exact top, calling for the best sell opportunity since December:
Right now the price is on a strong rebound, slightly higher than Support 1 (73.25) but with the 1D RSI on a confirmed reversal within its range. If you missed the bottom buy opportunity, wait for a 4H candle closing above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as this was a confirmed buy opportunity on all previous three occasions (circles). First target at 78.50 and if the price closes above the Lower Highs (dashed) trend-line, we will re-buy targeting 80.00.
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WTI CRUDE OIL can rise in the next 2 months back to $110 accordiWTI Crude Oil has been trading in the past two months on the Rising Support that emerged on the March 2021 Low. The longer it holds, the more likely a medium term (2 month) rebound is, back to the Resistance Zone and $110.
The reversal on the 1week MACD also supports that.
If the Rising Support breaks, the 1week MA200 will be the last level of Support before the Oil market collapses long term to the $35 Support Zone.
P.S. Short term still looks like the analysis below:
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WTI CRUDE OIL Approaching the 3month buy zoneWTI Crude Oil got rejected on Resistance Zone 1 and is now about to enter Support Zone 1.
This is a Buy Zone that has only been breached once in the last 3 months (since November 28th).
The only breach that took place formed Support 2.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy upon entering Support Zone 1.
2. Buy at 70.50 (slightly above Support 2).
Targets:
1. 80.50 (slightly below Resistance Zone 1).
2. 77.50 (slightly below Mid-level structure that was the first stop of the December 9th rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD 4H has also a very clear Support and Resistance Zone. It is not yet near the Support Zone, which gives more probabilities to the price approaching Support 2 before a rebound. keep an eye if it reverses earlier.
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WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKUS YoY CPI came above expectations yesterday, which led to expectations of further push of the prices. Although US Oil cushion reserve came above expectations, OPEC reported declined production of the month of January, and the expectations are for further increase of global demand for the crude oil.
On the 1H graph the price had broke the resistance of the Flag pattern, suggesting a start of a bullish movement, where, if continues, the price might test levels of 79.63
In the opposite scenario the price might fall to levels of 79.03
Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the bullish scenario.
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Oil grows bearish but SPR refill loomsDespite OPEC cutting its output by an estimated 60 000 barrels per day in January 2023, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil dropped more than 10% from its high of $82.60. This price action follows a series of wild swings within the wide range between $70 and $83. We expect high volatility in the oil market to persist in the first quarter of 2023. Indeed, we think there is a high likelihood of USOIL falling below $70. However, with the U.S. administration seeking to refill its SPR, such a price drop is likely to be short-lived. As conclusion, we think oil will remain stuck within the wide range for a while longer.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. Since mid-November 2022, the price can be seen trading within the wide range between $70 and $83.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate two technical developments which contradict each other. The first is a bullish crossover between 20-day and 50-day SMAs; the second is the subsequent price drop below these moving averages. These false and contradictory signals are common for moving averages when the price trends sideways.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price breaks below Support 1, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term.
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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI CRUDE OIL Last push before rejectionThe WTI Crude Oil failed to break over the 4hour MA100 but the subsequent rejection tested and held the 4hour MA50. This is a sign that the short term Channel Up remains valid. However the 4hour RSI break below its MA level potentially indicates that this is the last push before it peaks. This has been a valid signal since December 1st.
Our Target is 81.00 (under Resistance A) and for the reversal our sell's Target is 76.90 (above Support A).
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WTI OIL Long term Channel Down holdingWTI Oil is trading inside a Channel Down since late July, completing 6 months of a structured downtrend.
Every technical decline has been following a similar pattern, dropping -22% and -25% respectively.
Right now the price is on the last counter trend rise before the final decline starts.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the spot as every MA100 1D rejection has been bearish.
Targets:
1. 65.00 (marginally above a measured -22% decline).
Tips:
1. The price is a strong sell every time the RSI 1D approaches the 60.00 level.
Successful trade on this pattern:
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WTI: Safety net 🧗Although the Oil might need a little persuasion, we're expecting the course to drop below the support line at $70.08 to continue with the downwards slope of the blue wave within the green target zone. Once completed, the blue wave should pump the course back up, before it ultimately hits the corrective low of the green wave .
Oil continues to oscillate within the wide range For some time now, we have been skeptical about the overly bullish narrative in the oil market. Additionally, we have disagreed with calls for a return to triple-digit prices while noting multiple times that oil was likely to be choppy throughout 2023, oscillating within a wide range. In fact, we later presented a similar view from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which sees WTI crude oil average $77 per barrel in 2023. Today, we continue to stick to our previous assessment. Indeed, we are inclining toward the notion that oil will likely dip below $70 during the year (which may not be that far). However, we voice a word of caution as the price drop might be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at the lower end of $70.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. If the price breaks below the sloping support, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL. Additionally, it shows two simple moving averages (SMAs). The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement toward these SMAs. If the price holds above them, it will be bullish. Contrarily, if the price breaks below SMAs, it will be bearish in the short-term.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL May Target 103 At Some PointUSOIL May Target 103 At Some Point.
An M pattern has been completed but because the price jumped sooner than expected from 76.48, this FCP zone is left with less strength. Because of that the market is finding it hard to make a good bullish move and is simply consolidating. Right now it is in a consolidation phase but has started to show a bullish structure. If this structure stays intact, USOIL can start to move higher in time.
There is a huge gap left above 100 around 103 level as we have a double top (liquidity area) around 93. USOIL at some point in time can target this leftover gap.
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WTI OIL: Top of Rising Wedge. Trade the rejection or the break.WTI Crude Oil hit the top (HH 1) of the Rising Wedge and got rejected initially but today we see a strong push back to the top. The 1D technicals are bullish (RSI = 61.888, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 33.690) and probably is what's pushing the price back to test the HH 1 again.
Until the time the HH 1 breaks, we are staying neutral, but with more bearish bias. Those will be confirmed if the 4H MA50 breaks, which is the bearish trigger. Then we will sell with TP = 77.00 - 76.00, depending on the 4H MA200 as well. Then as long as the Rising Wedge and HL 1 hold, we will buy again with TP = 82.50 (R1). Break below HL1 will be an additional sell with TP = 72.50 (S2).
The bullish trigger is the R1 whose top is 83.30. Above it we will buy with TP = 87.00 (R2).
Previous analysis:
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WTI OIL Limited upside, significant downsideIt is time to update our WTI Oil (USOIL) thesis, which was bullish last week as the Resistance within the Channel Up broke:
This time we see one last rise as a possibility since the price is rebounding on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but limited to the 83.40 Resistance. An exception can be made to an overextension to the 85.00 - 86.00 range on the red zone, which is the top (Lower Highs) limit of the 5-month Channel Down (dashed lines).
On that point or if the price breaks below the 4H MA50 first, we expect a strong drop, with the downside open to at least the 70.10 Support. A more likely scenario in our opinion.
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Consumer savings decline, economy slows down, and EIA's forecastSince December 2022, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has been moving choppily between $70 and $83. Currently, one barrel trades near $77.50. We continue waiting on the sidelines for the market picture to clear. However, we are still unconvinced by bullish scenarios for oil, forecasting a return of $100 and above. That is because we already see a significant slowdown in economic activity around the globe and evaporating savings of consumers in the United States, both of which are likely to weigh on the oil demand in the coming months. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see USOIL break below $70 after some time. However, the U.S. administration might put a temporary floor for oil around that level due to its plans to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the lower range of that price tag. As a result, this makes a compelling case for the continuation of choppy price action in oil; interestingly, that coincides with the latest assessment of the EIA.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global petroleum production will increase by 1% (1.1 million b/d) in 2023. As for U.S. petroleum production, it sees an increase of 5% (1 million barrels per day). In addition to that, it expects OPEC's output to grow by 0.5% (160 000 barrels per day), and, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and war-related sanctions, the EIA expects Russia’s production to drop by more than 12% (from 10.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to only 9.5 million barrels per day) in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to stay relatively flat through the first half of 2023. After that, it expects the price to decline through the end of 2024. As a result, the agency foresees WTI crude oil to average $77 per barrel in 2023 and $72 per barrel in 2024.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. It also shows 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Yellow arrows indicate retracements toward these levels, which acted as corrections of the downtrend. We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA and whether it will halt the price rise in the future; if it fails (and the price breaks above it), it will bolster the bullish case for oil in the short term.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.