WTI CRUDE OIL Neutral for now, 1D MA100 is the keyWTI Crude Oil has made a break above the June Channel Down but still this isn't a long-term signal to buy. The key here is the 1D MA100, which has been keeping the price below it since July 05. If it breaks, we will target the 97.65 Resistance. Then the 1D MA200 will decide if we enter the bullish trend on the long-term again, or pull back towards the bottom of a newly formed blue Channel Up.
A break below that Channel would keep the long-term bearish trend intact, targeting the 76.20 Support. Best signal to sell this would be the STOCH RSI making a Sell Cross.
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Wticrudeoil
USOIL 1st NOVEMBER 2022US President Joe Biden will ask oil and gas companies to invest some of their record profits in lowering the cost of living in the country. Biden will ask Congress to consider requiring oil companies to pay a tax penalty. Biden has previously encouraged oil companies to increase production rather than use profits for share buybacks and dividends. The government is also relying on releasing supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the supply crisis.
Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year.
One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market.
The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs.
U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA.
The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage.
In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap.
Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels.
A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
CRUDE OIL TRADE ENTRYIn the crude oil we have strong level of resistance where price close on friday and sort of rejecting from 84.87 level and we also have 200 ema at 87.91 so this zone is very strong and oil need high volume to break this area and after this we have a strong trend line resistance to upside and price rejecting multiple time from this level also so i am looking selling entry from the current price if oil break its support to downside than we expect price come to yellow zone to fill the gap area and if price break to upside than we looking short from the selling close from the trend line for the target of yellow zone becoz crude oil have a very big gap and price need to fill this gap must/
WTI: StretchingWTI is done recovering and has finished wave b in blue. Already, it is stretching upwards, striving to work on our primary scenario. We expect the marker crude to climb above the resistance at $97.66 and into the turquoise zone between $99.97 and $113.53, where it should complete wave b in turquoise. After this feat, WTI should relax once more and fall into the green zone between $70.12 and $35.77 to conclude the overarching downwards movement. There is a 35% chance, though, that WTI could tackle this task directly, dropping below the support at $76.25 earlier already.
WTI oil - Deteriorating demand to weight on the higher oil priceSince our short-term price target of 80 USD was taken out a few weeks ago, we abstained from setting short and medium-term price targets because of very high volatility in the oil market. Despite that, we stuck to the long-term price target of 70 USD, to which we remain committed.
Our views are based mainly on fundamental factors concerning the deteriorating global demand for oil, with the OPEC slashing demand for 2023 and China maintaining its zero covid policy for longer.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- strive to perform a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bearish.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows hint at bullish breakouts (above SMAs) and subsequent invalidation.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and MACD are bearish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture shows the weekly chart of USOIL and two moving averages. The yellow arrow points to the impending bearish crossover between two SMAs; if successful, it will bolster the bearish case.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI CRUDE OIL POSSIBLE TO BUY....
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions,
the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
Dear Traders,
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PLZ! LIKE COMMAND AND SUBSCRIBE.
WTI CRUDE OIL WAITE FOR BREAKOUT THEN BUY....
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reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
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Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it,
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WTI CRUDE OIL SEEM SELL CORRECTION THEN BUY....
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it,
write in the comments. I will be glad.
Macro and TA is making Oil look ripe for an upward moveMacroeconomic trends with a rough heating season for Europe, the continued war in Ukraine, the internal troubles in Iran, and the most recent OPEC+ meeting makes the macro position for Oil look bullish.
Looking at the charts it looks likely that oil will challenge the downward trend that has persisted recent months and coming two days let us know if it'll begin a bullish upwards trend.
WTI analysis: Will OPEC+ cuts boost crude to $100?OPEC+ has taken a tough stance, slashing output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) beginning in November 2022, the largest reduction in crude oil production since March 2020.
In addition to production extending the agreement through 2023, oil producers have agreed to hold semiannual rather than monthly meetings.
WTI oil briefly spiked to $87/bbl following the OPEC+ announcement. It then broke through that level in response to disappointing US crude oil inventory data (-1.36 million barrels vs. 2.05 expected) and a strong US ISM Services PMI, which delayed recessionary warning signs following the weak ISM Manufacturing PMI earlier this week.
The move by OPEC+ risks putting renewed pressure on crude oil’s global supply-demand balance in the coming months, potentially resulting in a price floor at pre-OPEC+ meeting levels.
On a technical level, WTI crude and (also Brent) prices are currently testing a key resistance area, defined by the 50-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the range between September lows and June highs.
A sharp break above this resistance zone and then the $90/bbl level (September highs) could put additional upward pressure on an extension towards the 50% of the Fibonacci level ($98.6/bbl) and then $100/bbl.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
USOIL 3rd OCTOBER 2022 - COMBINATION STRATEGYUSOIL Combination strategy with a Trendline, Unfilled Order (UFO) and Psychological level.
Trend is a movement that shows where the market is moving. The term "trend" in everyday life is often used to express a situation, where something is in vogue or is gaining public attention.
As you know, a trendline is a tool that can be used to recognize the direction of a trend. Therefore, a trendline can serve as both Support (in an uptrend) and Resistance (in a downtrend). Trend line, Its function as a technical tool does not need to be doubted. Besides being able to help identify trends, this tool can also be used to find entry points. In looking for entry points, you can use bounce and breakout opportunities. remember "the trend is your friend". Believe it or not, in forex trading, the trendline is one of the friends that can help you to follow the direction where the market is moving.
This trend movement forms a series of sequential waves with the following levels:
Peak (High/H),
Higher peak (Higher High / HH)
Lower peak (Lower High / LH )
Valley (Low/L)
higher valley (Higher Low / HL )
Lower valley (Lower Low / LL)
By knowing the support and resistance levels, a trader can minimize risks and maximize profits. During a downtrend, a trendline can serve as resistance. But conversely, during an uptrend, the trendline can function as support. In finance market, a psychological level, is a price level in technical analysis that significantly influences the price of the underlying security, commodity or derivative. Usually, the number is something "easy to remember," like a number that is rounded up.
Meanwhile, Unfilled order is a shipment of orders that have not been fulfilled and inventory reported by domestic manufacturing companies. historically it can be seen that the balance between buyers and sellers is broken due to high volatility.
for example in the case of US30 23rd AUGUST 2022
USOILThis is my primary count on USOIL. Seems likely that we test $66-$70 for the intermediate wave 4 & confirm the higher low & also support on the monthly ema's 50,100,200 before the final pump to $300 plus.
So currently looks like we are in the 4th of the 3rd about to start the 5th of the 3rd and then correct into the HTF 4th wave before starting the last push to the 5th into 2027.
WTI SHORT TERM RECOVERYWTI recovered some of its loses yesterday after expectations of supply slow-down due to the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. But the continuous straightening of the US dollar and the expectations of continuing slow-down of Chinese economy might decrease the demand of crude oil. This will probably put further pressure on the crude oil price. Bearish traders might take advantage of this scenario by waiting a bit for WTI to reach more favorable levels and enter into positions.
Although technical indicators on the 1H graph show "Buy" signals, on the 4H and the daily graph the indicators are still bearish, with MACD histogram below 0 line and RSI below 50 neutral line. This might indicate that the recovery is temporary and the bearish move has not finished, but just slowed down.
If bearish trend continues the price might test levels of 72 USD, but if the trend makes a more permanent reverse, it might test its previous high at 86 USD.
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CRUDE OIL WTI : BEARISH POSITIONS BELLOW 88.78BLACKBULL:WTI
Hello folks!!!,
This is my analysis brought to you after deeply analyzing the Curde Oil WTI from a technical, trend and fundamental perspective:
Pivot point : 88.78
Stop loss : 92.28
Take profit : 73.28
Entry Price : 86.40
Risk/Reward Ratio : 1 : 2.32
If this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.❤️
Trade Safely,
Best Regards,
Yasser Tavarez
USOIL - An attempt to support the price failsOn 17th August 2022, we warned that the oil market might be positioning itself for a downtrend correction. Accordingly, we said we would pay close attention to the sloping resistance and a potential breakout above it.
Then, a few days later, the breakout occurred, and the price of USOIL spiked to 97.65 USD. Meanwhile, we abandoned our bearish price targets due to the OPEC considering production cuts. However, we also stated that the retracement (below the sloping resistance) could be utilized as short position re-entry.
Finally, after the OPEC announcement, we said the production cut would have a minimal impact on the market. So today, we would like to update price targets for USOIL. Our new short-term price target is 80 USD, and our long-term price target is 70 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of USOIL. It also depicts the bullish breakout above the sloping support/resistance and subsequent bearish retracement.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates the most recent bearish breakout.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI oil - 80 USD in sight Since our last update on oil, much has not changed. Therefore, we continue to be bearish on USOIL and stick to our short-term price target of 80 USD and a long-term price target of 70 USD. Our views are based on technical and fundamental factors we reiterated throughout 2022.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. Additionally, it shows two yellow arrows that indicate natural price retracements toward its 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA (which acted as a correction of the downtrend).
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.