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Wticrudeoil

WTI oil - Oil to head lower in 2022/2023For some time now, we have been providing relatively accurate price targets for the WTI crude oil. Last year, we navigated the oil bull market from 60 USD per barrel up to 100 USD a year later. Then, in April 2022, we called the peak in the oil market and laid out a few reasons why the oil market could temporarily bounce, but it would continue lower despite that. In addition to that, we said the oil price would drift back toward the 100 USD price tag over the medium/long term. Recently, USOIL reached our price target of 100 USD and 95 USD. Then today, it paused a decline just 0.17 USD above our short-term price target of 90 USD. Despite that, we remain bearish on crude oil and maintain our price target of 90 USD and our long-term price target of 80 USD per barrel. There are several fundamental and technical reasons behind our stance. First, fundamental reasons such as higher interest rates and economic tightening will inadvertently slow down the global economy. Indeed, several indicators flash warning signs of a recession in progress. Ultimately, that means lower demand for oil in the medium/long term, especially from China. Furthermore, the OPEC's supply increase of another 100 000 barrels per day in September 2022 will weigh on the weakening demand for oil. That, combined with reportedly high stockpiles of crude by the EIA, will lower the oil price in the foreseeable future. The same applies to the recent actions by western countries in regard to loosening sanctions on Russian oil. Illustration 1.01 The price of oil continues to move within the downward sloping channel. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 WTI oil futures on the weekly chart confirm our assessment of the declining demand for oil, which is reflected in the declining volume since the peak price. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 The daily chart of WTI oil futures shows the increase in selling pressure, which is particularly bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
51
WTI: Doooown…After one last surge, WTI has jumped below the support line at $92.93, its shout echoing through the chart. Now that it has begun the descent, it should continue it into the blue zone between $81.16 and $77.55, where it should finish wave 3 in blue. Alternatively, there is a 35% chance that WTI could gain upwards momentum again and could make it not only back above $92.93 but also above the resistance at $101.88. In this case, it should pursue the ascent above $105.24 and into the turquoise zone between $107.12 and $116.59 first before moving downwards.
NYMEX:CL1!
by MarketIntel
Trade the Crude Oil and Natural Gas spread to limit price risk.Energy commodities are a volatile bunch. Amid a complex backdrop of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, a summer filled with heat waves and macroeconomic headlines, energy prices can swing in both directions quickly. From a risk management point of view, one way to maintain exposure in the energy market whilst limiting directional/market risk is to trade a spread between two energy commodities. We can measure the spread of the WTI Crude Oil (CL) vs Natural Gas (NG) by dividing the prices of CL1! / NG1! . This ratio/spread provides us with an overview of the long-term relationship between the two products. Over the past month, the pullback in WTI Crude Oil prices has presented an opportunity in the CL-NG spread. Generally, the spread exhibits a short/medium-term mean-reverting behavior and this behavior is premised on a few factors. 1) There is some level of substitutability between the two products as a form of fuel, therefore higher prices may drive consumers to use one over the other. 2) Most oil producers also produce natural gas, thus rising prices may incentivize them to drill for one product over the other. 3) Used as a form of relative value measurement for energy cost. When the spread trades at a high, we know that oil is likely trading rich relative to natural gas, and vice versa. Currently, the spread is sitting right above the 10.5 level which has acted as a resistance level since 2018, except for the oil price crash during the pandemic. Revisiting the past 3 times when this level was breached, a long CL and short NG strategy proved favorable as the spread rebounded. The average length taken for the spread to reach the high is 3-5 months. Should this relationship hold, we can long the spread by buying 1 WTI Crude Oil Sep 2022 future contract (CLU2022) and shorting 1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Sep 2022 future contract (NGU2022). However, do note that the contract value of the CL futures is ~ $97,000 while that of the NG futures is ~$80,000, so there is some exposure that is not fully hedged. Spread Entry at 12.30, stops at 10.50. Targets at 17.80. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
1
Is #USO Breaking Out?Is #USO Breaking Out? # Crude #oil extended last weeks Friday’s positive close in trading on Monday as U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia failed to deliver anything concrete. The trip was aimed at coaxing the Saudi’s to increase oil production thus easing inflation pressures. The response from the Saudi’s and other key officials reiterated the fact that production scheduling and/or increases remain with the OPEC+ consortium leaving President Biden without a deal. Sorry #JoeBiden
AMEX:USOLong
by fintechwire
USOil | New perspective for the weekPresident Joe Biden on Friday said he expects further oil supply increases from Saudi Arabia to help lower U.S. gasoline costs after a meeting with the country's leader. Are we expecting to see a downtrend continuation on the charts or will there be a breakout of structure to confirm a reversal in price action? This video explains how I intend to take advantage of a trading opportunity during the new week. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
TVC:USOILShort
by darcsherry
2
WTI OIL hit its 1D MA200 first time in 2022! Bottom can be lowerWTI Crude Oil (USOIL) touched today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 2022, more specifically since December 21 2021! This strong selling on the market has come after successive Lower Highs since June 14 and a rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the March 08 market High, this may look as the start of a multi-year Bear Cycle but the fall isn't that dramatic yet, as excluding the June 14 High, the market has been ranging sideways (high volatility nonetheless) within a Rectangle pattern since the March drop. This is a make or break moment for the pattern. A break below the Support and naturally the 1D MA200, should seek the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) which priced the markets last Low on December 02 2021, before the mega rally started. A rebound on the Support should test the 1D MA50 on the short-term at least as a Resistance. The most important indicator on this chart though is the RSI, which is displayed on the 1W time-frame. As you see, there is a Channel Down pattern involved, which (with the exception of the March war extreme) has price all of WTI's Highs and Lows since the March 08 2021 High! The best long-term buy on the market can be taken exactly on the Channel's Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line, whether that's on the 1D MA300 or one of the lower Higher Lows trend-lines involved. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
3
WTI still in a MAJOR bull trendSince the April 2020 low WTI has been steadily shooting towards the 2008 highs and remains in a very strong bullish trend. When we have technical and fundamental analysis supporting a direction I would count that the best type of trades we could be in. Of course I am a day trader and looking at this weekly chart does little good for me, but volatility on the other hand helps me make abnormal profits and what I seek to find is volatility and which assets could it affect. Point here is that if WTI continues to hold this uptrend it will form a higher low and knowing that higher low I can positon myself to ride wider profits on long positions and even increase my size, while also when WTI eventually finds a top the correction down will be quick and aggressive, hence knowing both the technical and fundamental information of a given asset is vital to my success as a day trader! The technical analysis here is clear... we are in an uptrend because we are forming higher highs and higher lows... basic! but!! There are fundamental drivers too! The most recent move in oil futures curves reflects the divergent forces currently driving the global commodity markets. From the recent fundamental standpoint, the weak June Flash PMIs weighed especially on the longer-end of the oil curve, as rising recession risks and tightening financial conditions weaken the demand outlook. At the same time, the world continues to struggle with tight oil supply amid the war in Ukraine and very limited spare capacity and things are only getting worse! OPEC can't seem to save WTI from heading higher either, because OPEC+ announced faster planned production hikes for July and August, yet it failed to meet its target in May as production declined from the previous month so it will be very very very interesting to see what happens with their promise for July (coming up pretty soon!) Based on my experience... the OPEC+ supply for July could possibly form the higher low of this uptrend, but only time will tell! In any case, trading WTI is very lucrative for me right now as I thrive on volatility and absolutely love it!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by PrimedGroup
Outlook on WTI: Bearish play seen On the H4 time frame, prices are showing bearish order flow with lower lows and lower highs being formed. On the H1 time frame, a pullback to the resistance zone at 107.00, in line with the descending trend line, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, graphical resistance level and 100% Fibonacci extension level presents an opportunity to play the drop. Our next support target at 100.20 coincides with the potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastic is also showing limited upside as well before it reaches resistance, in line with prices.
TVC:USOILShort
by shermzT
1
WTI: Next step 👍WTI has made the next important step in the course of our primary scenario and has jumped below the support line at $101.53. We expect it to drop further still, namely below the next support at $92.93, where it should finish wave 3 in blue. After a short countermovement as part of wave 4 in blue, WTI should then fall into the white zone between $78.56 and $70.17. There is a 25% chance, though, that WTI could change direction and rise above the resistance at $130.50, thus enforcing further ascent.
NYMEX:CL1!
by MarketIntel
WTI oil - The end of oil bull marketIn early April 2022, we said the oil bull market peaked. Then, a bit later, we stated that if the Russian crude oil was to be banned in the EU, we would see another bounce in price and possibly a new top. Despite that, we set a long-term price target for USOIL at 90 USD; we still hold this price target as we continue to be bearish on oil. In addition to that, we would like to set a short-term price target for USOIL at 100 USD and a medium-term price target at 95 USD. Fundamental factors The FED is decided to pursue the destruction of demand, which will negatively impact the oil price as the stock market is poised to crash further down. Additionally, supply increases by the OPEC members threaten the high value of oil. Illustration 1.01 The WTI crude oil is down over 20% from its peak and within the technical bear market. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The ADX increases, which signals that the bearish trend is gaining momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform a bearish crossover. The ADX suggests that the bull trend has ended. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
10
USOIL 6th JULY 2022USOIL fell below USD 100 as recession fears grew, fueling concerns that the economic slowdown would cut demand for petroleum products. In the macro trend, oil tends to be bearish. By the end of this year if the economy is heading into a recession. In a recession scenario with rising unemployment, bankruptcy of households and firms, commodities will chase a downward cost curve as costs deflate and margins turn negative to encourage supply curbs. However, the decline in oil prices will actually benefit manufacturing companies. They will take cheap prices for supplies, after 2 quarters of prices soaring. USOIL D1
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
8
Crude Oil testing 2008 and 2014 key areas cont.The top of the 2014 volume area continues to hold price and will need to do so for price to continue higher In the last week, the volume point of control has shifted up from 91.6x to 107.6x with the increase in volume due to buying Question on timing: Has a low been put in place the week of 21-June or will price drift for several more weeks. The 45-period lookback on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd STD LR has seemed to have tight boundaries. I’m not sure if price will drift right several more weeks touching bottom of the 2nd STD LR before continuing up. Although options are expensive, could be opportunity for Oct/Nov 2022 calls. R4 traditional pivot for 2022 is close to the 2008 high so that would be my first target to close any Oct/Nov calls
NYMEX:CL1!
by mxb1961
USOIL 30th JUNE 2022The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers are expected to confirm as a mere formality their decision to expand oil production by 650,000 barrels per day in July and August. The OPEC+ group of producers including Russia, began two days of meetings on Wednesday, though sources said there was little prospect of agreement to pump more oil. The net drop in crude oil inventories was flattered by SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) releases, while the gasoline stock jump is because U.S. refineries are running at over 95% capacity
TVC:USOILShort
by DNP-FX
WTI OIL targeting 123.00WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a 4 day green 1D candle streak, the longest it has been in a month and is trading above above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see the pattern has been a Channel Up since the March 25 High as the market is attempting to recover the War high (129.50) of March 08. This time the price hasn't just rebounded on the bottom of the Channel Up but also on the longer-term Higher Lows trend-line that started after the December 02 2021 Low. A break below should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but until then we should continue buying towards the top of the Channel. A weekly closing above the 129.50 Resistance should be a long-term extension to the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at 145.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3