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Wticrudeoil

USOIL - The downtrend continuesIn the first quarter of 2022, we warned market participants about the peaking conditions in the oil bull market. Since then, our predictions came true, and USOIL dropped over 30% from its highs, hitting our 100 USD and 90 USD price targets. At the moment, we still remain bearish on WTI oil with a medium-term price target of 80 USD. Our views are based on technical and fundamental factors. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows USOIL down approximately 33% from its 2022 highs. At the moment, we pay close attention to the sloping resistance; a breakout above it will be a bullish sign, potentially hinting at the correction of the downtrend. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
16
WTI OIL Bullish divergence could give one last pumpThe WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a structured Channel Down pattern since the March 08 market High, following the immense growth after the COVID 2020 demand crisis. We have covered the Higher Lows zones since the November 02 2020 Low (green circle) and the March 23 2021 Low (blue circle) extensively over the past months on the higher time-frames, but this time we will focus on the Bullish Divergences forming on the lower time-frames (t-f). The chart is on the 1D t-f, as well as the RSI with the MACD on the 8H t-f. As you see, the price is currently testing the August 11 High, which is its short-term Resistance and happens to be also on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which rejected Oil on that particular High. A break above it would be on its own a strong bullish break-out signal on the short-term. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is just above the MA200. On the flipside this means that it will form a Death Cross pattern, which is technically a bearish formation, for the first time since the Feb 25 2020 Death Cross, which preceded the COVID crash. With the Nov 2020 Higher Lows Zone (dotted lines) though right below, the Death Cross effect may be postponed for the short-term. Especially by having the 1D RSI forming the same bullish break-out pattern as with April 2022, which was the Lower Low formation that initiated the rebound to the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down. The Bullish Divergence is more evident on the 8H MACD with them being on Higher Lows while Oil has been on Lower Lows since June 22. Technically the Channel Down should make a new Lower High within 110.00 - 115.00. A break below it though, should finally test the March 23 2021 Higher Lows zone (dashed lines). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
5
USOIL 23rd AUGUST 2022Oil prices briefly surged in mid-trade due to a push to raise the Fed's benchmark interest rate. However, prices eased back after investors believed that the US central bank's policy this month was to maintain interest rates. Another factor, the US dollar strengthened again to its highest level in five weeks, which limited the increase in crude oil prices. This is because oil becomes more expensive for buyers with non-US dollar currencies. US Dollar Index Oil prices will not be too bearish, this is due to the prospect of higher demand entering the winter season.
TVC:USOILLong
by DNP-FX
9
WTI OIL 3rd week below the 1W MA50. Critical Support below.The WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) opened the week yesterday on the 3rd straight 1W candle below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time that such streak took place was in early November 2020! It is therefore easy to understand that if this level is not recovered, Oil may enter a new Bear Cycle. On the short-term we ideally want to see a candle closing above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), in order to trigger a buy signal, targeting the Lower Highs of the March Top. Until then, the short-term price action calls for further selling towards the November 2020 Higher Lows trend-line. A closing below should be enough to trigger a bearish extension to the March 2021 Higher Lows. The 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Down since March 2021 and is close to its bottom. That is an indicator showing that if it starts reversing, we may see a rebound (at least on the medium-term) on the November 2020 Higher Lows. We will follow with many updates until then. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
WTI OIL Rejection on the 1D MA200.The WTI CRUDE OIL (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Down since June 29, following quite closely the outlook we presented 1 month ago, as it hit the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) target: As you see, it has been below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) all this time and the longer it does, the more likely it is to print a Lower Low within the Channel Down on the dotted long-term Higher Lows trend-line around 82.00. This is further enhanced by today's rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). If however it breaks above the 1D MA50, look for a reversal towards the Lower Highs of March 08. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
3
WTIOil in a bit of trouble here, likely entering a 6-10 month bear market correction. Downside target can hit the 618% of the entire 5 moves off the 2020 lows when WTI went negative. Currently a lower time frame A wave has bounced off the 618% fib retracement level of the 5th wave. But we must correct that entire 5 up not just the 5th wave. We should bounce into a B wave soon on the daily before making the larger C wave down close to $80. After that The HTF weekly A wave is complete and bounce again into HTF weekly B wave before finally nuking to $50 wave C to complete the entire move. You better BTFD IMHO guys because after this is done oil prices likely to run back turbo over $130.
FX:USOIL
by Big_Mike716
1
WTI oil - Oil to head lower in 2022/2023For some time now, we have been providing relatively accurate price targets for the WTI crude oil. Last year, we navigated the oil bull market from 60 USD per barrel up to 100 USD a year later. Then, in April 2022, we called the peak in the oil market and laid out a few reasons why the oil market could temporarily bounce, but it would continue lower despite that. In addition to that, we said the oil price would drift back toward the 100 USD price tag over the medium/long term. Recently, USOIL reached our price target of 100 USD and 95 USD. Then today, it paused a decline just 0.17 USD above our short-term price target of 90 USD. Despite that, we remain bearish on crude oil and maintain our price target of 90 USD and our long-term price target of 80 USD per barrel. There are several fundamental and technical reasons behind our stance. First, fundamental reasons such as higher interest rates and economic tightening will inadvertently slow down the global economy. Indeed, several indicators flash warning signs of a recession in progress. Ultimately, that means lower demand for oil in the medium/long term, especially from China. Furthermore, the OPEC's supply increase of another 100 000 barrels per day in September 2022 will weigh on the weakening demand for oil. That, combined with reportedly high stockpiles of crude by the EIA, will lower the oil price in the foreseeable future. The same applies to the recent actions by western countries in regard to loosening sanctions on Russian oil. Illustration 1.01 The price of oil continues to move within the downward sloping channel. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 WTI oil futures on the weekly chart confirm our assessment of the declining demand for oil, which is reflected in the declining volume since the peak price. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 The daily chart of WTI oil futures shows the increase in selling pressure, which is particularly bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
51
WTI: Doooown…After one last surge, WTI has jumped below the support line at $92.93, its shout echoing through the chart. Now that it has begun the descent, it should continue it into the blue zone between $81.16 and $77.55, where it should finish wave 3 in blue. Alternatively, there is a 35% chance that WTI could gain upwards momentum again and could make it not only back above $92.93 but also above the resistance at $101.88. In this case, it should pursue the ascent above $105.24 and into the turquoise zone between $107.12 and $116.59 first before moving downwards.
NYMEX:CL1!
by MarketIntel
Trade the Crude Oil and Natural Gas spread to limit price risk.Energy commodities are a volatile bunch. Amid a complex backdrop of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, a summer filled with heat waves and macroeconomic headlines, energy prices can swing in both directions quickly. From a risk management point of view, one way to maintain exposure in the energy market whilst limiting directional/market risk is to trade a spread between two energy commodities. We can measure the spread of the WTI Crude Oil (CL) vs Natural Gas (NG) by dividing the prices of CL1! / NG1! . This ratio/spread provides us with an overview of the long-term relationship between the two products. Over the past month, the pullback in WTI Crude Oil prices has presented an opportunity in the CL-NG spread. Generally, the spread exhibits a short/medium-term mean-reverting behavior and this behavior is premised on a few factors. 1) There is some level of substitutability between the two products as a form of fuel, therefore higher prices may drive consumers to use one over the other. 2) Most oil producers also produce natural gas, thus rising prices may incentivize them to drill for one product over the other. 3) Used as a form of relative value measurement for energy cost. When the spread trades at a high, we know that oil is likely trading rich relative to natural gas, and vice versa. Currently, the spread is sitting right above the 10.5 level which has acted as a resistance level since 2018, except for the oil price crash during the pandemic. Revisiting the past 3 times when this level was breached, a long CL and short NG strategy proved favorable as the spread rebounded. The average length taken for the spread to reach the high is 3-5 months. Should this relationship hold, we can long the spread by buying 1 WTI Crude Oil Sep 2022 future contract (CLU2022) and shorting 1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Sep 2022 future contract (NGU2022). However, do note that the contract value of the CL futures is ~ $97,000 while that of the NG futures is ~$80,000, so there is some exposure that is not fully hedged. Spread Entry at 12.30, stops at 10.50. Targets at 17.80. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
1
Is #USO Breaking Out?Is #USO Breaking Out? # Crude #oil extended last weeks Friday’s positive close in trading on Monday as U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia failed to deliver anything concrete. The trip was aimed at coaxing the Saudi’s to increase oil production thus easing inflation pressures. The response from the Saudi’s and other key officials reiterated the fact that production scheduling and/or increases remain with the OPEC+ consortium leaving President Biden without a deal. Sorry #JoeBiden
AMEX:USOLong
by fintechwire
USOil | New perspective for the weekPresident Joe Biden on Friday said he expects further oil supply increases from Saudi Arabia to help lower U.S. gasoline costs after a meeting with the country's leader. Are we expecting to see a downtrend continuation on the charts or will there be a breakout of structure to confirm a reversal in price action? This video explains how I intend to take advantage of a trading opportunity during the new week. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
TVC:USOILShort
by darcsherry
2
WTI OIL hit its 1D MA200 first time in 2022! Bottom can be lowerWTI Crude Oil (USOIL) touched today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 2022, more specifically since December 21 2021! This strong selling on the market has come after successive Lower Highs since June 14 and a rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the March 08 market High, this may look as the start of a multi-year Bear Cycle but the fall isn't that dramatic yet, as excluding the June 14 High, the market has been ranging sideways (high volatility nonetheless) within a Rectangle pattern since the March drop. This is a make or break moment for the pattern. A break below the Support and naturally the 1D MA200, should seek the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) which priced the markets last Low on December 02 2021, before the mega rally started. A rebound on the Support should test the 1D MA50 on the short-term at least as a Resistance. The most important indicator on this chart though is the RSI, which is displayed on the 1W time-frame. As you see, there is a Channel Down pattern involved, which (with the exception of the March war extreme) has price all of WTI's Highs and Lows since the March 08 2021 High! The best long-term buy on the market can be taken exactly on the Channel's Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line, whether that's on the 1D MA300 or one of the lower Higher Lows trend-lines involved. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
3