WTI Cude (OIL) SELL TRADE IDEA
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions,
the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
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Wticrudeoil
BEARS ATTACK THE MarketSo now, it is not just oil and oil products that trade way above historical averages, natural gas is way above the norm, too. Meanwhile, oil prices plunged on Friday morning as recession fears soared.
White House Considers Export Caps to Tame Fuel Prices. According to Bloomberg, the Biden Administration is looking into capping fuel exports out of the US, with gasoline outflows already rising to 750,000 b/d this year, a topic that is most probably going to be raised at Energy Secretary Granholm’s meeting with oil refiners next week.
Nord Stream 1 Goes Down with Throughput Issues. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) declared it had to cut throughput in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe, saying delays in Siemens equipment repairs force it to run at just 40% capacity, a claim disputed by the German government as spot prices soar.
OPEC+ Admits Huge Underproduction, Again. As reported by Reuters, OPEC+ produced 2.695 million b/d below its production target in May, bringing total levels of deal compliance to 256%, with several African producers stuck in force majeure events and Russia seeing sanctions-driven production declines.
US Pressures Iran By Sanctioning Chinese Firms. For the second time in less than a month, the US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Chinese and Emirati companies that helped export Iran’s petrochemicals, stepping up the pressure on Tehran but also squeezing buying possibilities for Asian buyers.
Freeport LNG Aims for Full Return by Year-End. The largest US LNG liquefaction facility, Freeport LNG, said that it would remain fully offline until September following a pipeline blaze last week, with only partial operation expected through year-end.
Chinese Refining Sees Steepest Fall in a Decade. Chinese refinery runs fell 11% year-on-year, the steepest such change in more than a decade, to average 12.7 million b/d as continuous COVID-19 lockdowns depressed domestic demand and despite weak refining led to inventory builds across the country.
ExxonMobil Wants to Drill More in Guyana. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) sent a development plan to Guyana’s environmental authorities that covers a 12-well drilling campaign in the Canje and Kaieteur blocks, both adjacent to the discovery-prolific Stabroek, despite having found no commercial oil there previously.
Houston Refinery Fire Underscores US Refinery Fragility. A blaze that took out the coking unit of LyondellBasell’s 270,000 b/d Houston refinery as become a timely reminder of the capacity losses that US refining has seen over the past decades, with the fire potentially bringing forward the refinery’s end-2023 shutdown.
South Africa Wants to Join Russia Buying Spree. Inspired by India’s soaring purchases of Russian crude, South Africa’s energy minister said the country’s refineries should start buying Russian oil to curb rising fuel prices and alleviate the pressure on state coffers as the government ramped up energy subsidies.
Australia’s Power Crunch Gets Worse. Australia’s power market operator suspended all spot market trading this week amidst widespread outages and coal-fueled power plants, aggravated by several generating companies curbing output as the government-mandated price cap of A$300 per MWh did not cover their production costs.
Saudi Aramco Wants to Take Trading Arm to IPO. Saudi Aramco is planning to merge its two trading units, Aramco Trading and Motiva Trading, before reportedly carrying out an initial public offering of the trading group which mostly trades third-party volumes that are not covered by Aramco.
Argentina Signs Pipeline Deal to Move Gas from Key Shale Play. Argentina’s state firm Energia Argentina signed a deal with pipeline company Tenaris (BIT:TEN) to build a 350-mile gas pipeline that would increase by 25% the capacity of gas currently moved from Vaca Muerta towards key consumption hubs in Buenos Aires.
Germany Mandates States to Allocate Wind Farm Sites. The German government approved a bill that requires its 16 states to allocate a set minimum of land to onshore wind farms, with the target of hitting at least 2% of land allocated for wind farms by 2032.
Saudi Aramco Develops a Liking for Solar. Saudi Arabia’s oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) plans to invest in 12 GW of solar and wind capacity, it vowed in its first-ever sustainability report, whilst also pledging to reduce upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035 and investing heavily into blue ammonia.
WTI Crude Oil Short Setup on Daily Time FrameWe can see the price breaks below a major trend line after finding a resistance.
We can wait for a pullback and see if it will go above the trendline. If trendline became a resistance, it is safe to say we have a short opportunity to short if goes below the latest low on the daily timeframe.
The DMI also looks good and trending upward going above 25 level. If the -DI remains above the ADX, it will be a strong indicator to short.
WTI Oil - New Highs to Come?It is incredibly difficult to analyse this commodity fundamentally so let's see what technical analysis may suggest?
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Since the sharp fall of March 2020 it is likely that we are observing the development of a global zig-zag ABC
Five waves of the first impulse A completed in July 2021
Wave B took shape of a complex Running Correction WXY finishing in November 2021
And since then we can see formation of another impulse in wave C
Waves 1 to 3 of this impulse culminating in March 2022 are quite clear which have been followed by a flat correction in the shape of Double Threes WXY
The crux of the analysis is developing right now when the price started moving in a very choppy way
The previous scenario still stands and it is very likely that we are observing development of an Ending Diagonal in wave 5 (see educational post below about the structure of this wave)
Waves 1-3 have formed and we can expect correction of wave 4 to last at least until end of June / fist week of July to the level of $103, followed by the last zigzag to top the high of $129
This is quite complex scenario so it needs to be monitored against all the rules of Ending Diagonal.
What do you think about WTI Oil and its short term prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
Educational post on Ending Diagonal
Outlook on WTI Crude Oil: Bearish play seenOn the weekly time frame, prices are holding below a key area at 127.80 where we could see further downside below this area. On the H4 time frame, we are seeing a shift in order flow with the break of the recent low at 112.50. A pullback to the resistance area at 114.80, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension presents an opportunity to play the drop to our next support target at 103.80. This demand area lines up with the ascending trend line, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 1.272% Fibonacci extension. Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of bearish pressure as well, with prices holding below the Ichimoku cloud.
BCOil Breaks 2Day High 21-25June 2022BCO breaking 2D High very quickly after Asian Open. Tumoilsin Lybia,uncertainty and mixed participants,long-Term Trend Traders took profits at 127 area that was followed by the Russians announcements to increase the Russian oil production in 2023.And ofcourse the recesion fears of 2023.
Technicallyis BCO still in the long area.Yesterday on 20th June 2023 the market was not able to reach the 20 Day low(Donchian),The very important resistance (115) was broken on Friday ,but the Bulls fought it back.AlsoYesterday The bears tried to break the heavily defended 113 Area, but the market came back to 1155 zone andmade a new high,shortly before BCO closed early( Juneenth!)
Today the market opened at high and made 5 consequent Highs in row.
The RSI 200 in positive territory.
The RSI 9 and 6 confirm.
Quarter VWAP is giving more green lights to be bullish(Short Term).If 127 becomes new Support,wewillsee150 USD before the summer time.
Industry Summary:
The global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market potential is exploding at an unstoppable rate. During the forecast period, this global market is expected to grow at a rapid pace. And it's feasible thanks to the advancement of modern technology, which has opened up new doors for the sector. Owing to the private and public sector investment in the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating industry. The market is anticipated to expand. Increased public awareness of environmental contaminants and more stringent government laws to reduce carbon emissions. The market for fuel cell electric vehicles is predicted to grow. During the forecast timeframe, grow.
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COVID-19 Impact Analysis:
Due to lockdowns and travel restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant influence on the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market. The production and delivery of the goods were both delayed. The delivery of raw materials was also delayed. However, following the pandemic, there has been a recovery as limitations have been eased and supporting government policies have been implemented.
Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market Scope:
The current market research report breaks down the demand for the 4K Set-Top Box Market into different segments. It gives executives insight into Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating and how they may expand their market share.
We use cutting-edge industrial and digitalization methods to give our customers cutting-edge market intelligence on fuel cell interconnectors. In market research, a SWOT analysis was used to look at each player's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats on a global and regional level.
Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market Segmentation:
Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market Segments: By Resin Epoxy Polyurethane Alkyd Acrylic Inorganic Zinc Others By Installation Jackups Floaters Drillships Semisubmersibles Others
Industry Drivers and Restrictions
In this research, high-impact rendering variables and drivers have been investigated in order to help readers understand the overall trend without wasting time. Furthermore, the report contains constraints and obstacles that may operate as roadblocks for the players. Users will be able to pay attention and make well-informed business judgments as a result of this. Experts have also focused on the next business opportunities.
The prominent vendors profiled in the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market are:
3M CO.
AKZONOBEL N.V.
HEMPLEL A/S
KANSAI PAINTS CO., LTD.
NIPPON PAINTS CO. LTD.
PPG INDUSTRIES, INC.
THE SHERWIN-WILLIAMS COMPANY
WACKER CHEMIE AG
Jotun
§ A&A Coatings
Regional Analysis of the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market:
Growing energy consumption and power generation in the Asia Pacific region is driving the demand for Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating. Therefore, Asia Pacific is expected to be an attractive region for all participants in the global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market. The growing automation industry in Asia Pacific, Europe and North America is expected to support the growth of the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market during the forecast period.
Key Insights gained from Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market Research Report:
Basic macro and microeconomic factors influencing Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market sales.
Basic overview of Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating including market definitions, classifications, and, applications.
The Report scrutinizes each market participant based on M&A, R&D projects, and product launches.
Analysis of the adoption trends and supply side of fuel cell interconnectors across various industries.
Important regions and countries that provide lucrative opportunities for market stakeholders.
The demand study of the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market includes the current market scenario for the global platform and the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market development and sales over the forecast period.
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The Key Questions Answered in the report include:
At what rate the global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market will grow in the projected period?
What are the different types of products?
What is the expected CAGR of the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market in the coming years?
Which product type is leading the industry?
What is the impact of COVID-19 on the global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market?
Who are the key players in the global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market and what are the key strategies adopted by them?
Which segment is leading by applications?
USOIL 20th JUNE 2022Before July, USOIL was seen moving in the consolidation channel area which tends to be bullish . in July, USOIL sentiment will tend to be bearish .
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member states announced plans to adjust oil production upward in July by 0.648 million barrels per day.
In my view Oil prices are bearish but still not stable. Moderate bearish confirmation has not occurred, because the price has not yet breakout below the support area.
So I will place a buy limit near the support area, with the target not exceeding the weekly resistance which is drawn in the red area.
stop loss as well as sellstop below the support area.
OIL Switching Uptrend to DowntrendWe had a massive downtrend on Friday due to recession fears. Chances are we can see some pullback to the 115 or 116 areas which could be a great shorting opportunity. There are also opportunities of scalping quick longs but do not long at the smoothed moving averages or LR Channel tops (Linear Regression) as they can be rejected from there. My trading strategy for opening would be quick longs and then reshorting at higher levels region as there still are recession fears. The higher levels would be at 5min, 15 min, 1hr, 2hr, 4hr LR Channel tops where I would short.
I do not expect a 119 area to be reached in the next week (maximum 117).
WTI may retest reversal zoneCrude Oil WTI price went bearish this few days.
Hourly timeframe still with some bullish momentum towards the reversal zone and trendline.
Will see if the bear can came in or the bulls will win at these significant levels.
There might be a short opportunity in H1 timeframe.
TVC:USOIL
WTI OIL Correction not over yet.WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a strong 3 day correction. Its long-term trend since the December 02 2021 Low is better illustrated if we apply the Fibonacci Channel starting on that Low. As you see the extensions have worked very well in projecting Higher Highs.
Right now the pull-back doesn't seem to be over. Either a bounce of the 1D RSI on its Buy Zone is needed or a hit on the price's Internal Higher Lows trend-line. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) happens to be exactly there, which is a trend-line untouched since December 27 2021. A rebound there can target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension again. On the other hand, a closing below the 0.0 Fib level can see Oil test the -0.5 extension for the first time, with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting just below.
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WTI: Nearly There!WTI has nearly finished wave B in green in the upper third of the green zone between $111.72 and $126.25 or wave c in pink in the upper half of the pink zone between $122.81 and $126.17, respectively. As soon as it has accomplished this, WTI should turn downwards and head for the support at $102.66. After it has completed wave (A) in white below this mark, a countermovement should set WTI back above $102.66 before it can resume the descent. However, there is a 42% chance that WTI could continue to rise and climb above the resistance at $130.50, which would then lead to further ascent.
WTI OIL heading to $160 long-termThis is not a new chart I'm sharing with you on WTI Crude Oil today, I've initially posted it 2 months ago, calling for a medium-term consolidation and then bullish break-out when the Resistance breaks, based on the striking similarities with the September 2020 - March 2021 pattern:
It is time to update my thesis, as the Resistance broke and the similarities continue to be striking both in candle and RSI terms. The analysis is on the 1W time-frame, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) standing out.
On the May 31 2021 1W candle, when the price broke and closed the week above the prior High/ Resistance, Oil eventually reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Currently that Fib level is at 159.00. With the 1W RSI well above its MA, it appears that WTI has enough momentum to break its prior High/ Resistance by July. This is a long-term thesis. I will be making updates on the 1D time-frame for shorter term trades.
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WTI Oil - a case for continued upside. Oil has had a massive bullish run since 2020 which was driven by pandemic followed by post pandemic demand in addition to the more recent geopolitical instability between Russia, Ukraine and NATO countries which accelerated the price to over 100$/bbl.
Years of negligible reinvestment into new oil plays by the energy sector and ever expanding demand for oil should allow price to continue to the upside to challenge the July 2008 all time highs.
Currently the asset is trading within a range between 126.45-92.20 price levels in what I am interpreting as an accumulation for upside objective of 140$/bbl.
There is a possibility for price to sweep under the outlined range to trap breakout short sellers before price accelerates upward and puts a squeeze on the bears.
WTI OIL 1 month of scalping with 12 successful tradesAs mentioned on my last two ideas (April 19 and May 02), WTI Oil has been neutral on the medium-term where scalping was favored:
Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame where you can see the range more clearly (Resistance at 116.60 and Support at 93.00). On this post I present the golden combination that offered 100% profitable results during this 1 month of scalping. The 4H MA100 (green trend-line) can be used as the Pivot Line. I've also plotted the Bollinger Bands (blue range).
As you see, every time the 4H RSI touched either its Resistance (sell signal) or Support Zone (buy signal), it bounced towards at least the 4H MA100 and in most cases even the top/ bottom of the Bollinger Bands before the next signal emerged.
So far this approach has given 100% success rate with 12/12 correct signals. We will continue scalping this until either the Resistance or Support level breaks.
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