Wticrudeoil
WTI Oil - a case for continued upside. Oil has had a massive bullish run since 2020 which was driven by pandemic followed by post pandemic demand in addition to the more recent geopolitical instability between Russia, Ukraine and NATO countries which accelerated the price to over 100$/bbl.
Years of negligible reinvestment into new oil plays by the energy sector and ever expanding demand for oil should allow price to continue to the upside to challenge the July 2008 all time highs.
Currently the asset is trading within a range between 126.45-92.20 price levels in what I am interpreting as an accumulation for upside objective of 140$/bbl.
There is a possibility for price to sweep under the outlined range to trap breakout short sellers before price accelerates upward and puts a squeeze on the bears.
WTI OIL 1 month of scalping with 12 successful tradesAs mentioned on my last two ideas (April 19 and May 02), WTI Oil has been neutral on the medium-term where scalping was favored:
Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame where you can see the range more clearly (Resistance at 116.60 and Support at 93.00). On this post I present the golden combination that offered 100% profitable results during this 1 month of scalping. The 4H MA100 (green trend-line) can be used as the Pivot Line. I've also plotted the Bollinger Bands (blue range).
As you see, every time the 4H RSI touched either its Resistance (sell signal) or Support Zone (buy signal), it bounced towards at least the 4H MA100 and in most cases even the top/ bottom of the Bollinger Bands before the next signal emerged.
So far this approach has given 100% success rate with 12/12 correct signals. We will continue scalping this until either the Resistance or Support level breaks.
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USOIL - Russian oil ban = higher oil pricesMore than a week ago, we warned about potential EU's ban on Russian oil and the risk it poses for the higher price of oil. We suggested that this step would lead to higher prices of oil in the short-term. Just two days ago, Germany was reported to back a gradual ban on Russian oil. Because of that we abandon our short-term and medium-term price targets. Although, our long-term price target remains in place.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI points to the upside which is bullish; however, over the past few days, it shows choppy pattern. MACD oscillates near the midpoint; if it manages to break above it, then we expect it to bolster a bullish case for USOIL. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish but due to perform bullish crossover. ADX signals presence of no significant trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish for USOIL.
Illustration 1.01
The illustration above shows the rectangle pattern - in which most of the choppy price action has been going on lately.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is highly elevated and flattening at the same moment, which makes it neutral. Stochastic reversed to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX's signals that these conditions deteriorated over the past four weeks. Overall, the weekly time frame is mixed.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL - A gloomy outlook for WTI oilA few weeks ago, we noted that we believe USOIL peaked and is headed lower. Indeed, we set a long-term price target of 90 USD. Now, we would like to change this price target to medium-term and set a new long-term price target of 80 USD. Additionally, we would also like to set a short-term price target of 95 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Yellow arrows indicate the recent bullish breakout (above the trendline) and subsequent loss of momentum.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-, which recently performed the bearish crossover. In addition to that, ADX halted its decline, suggesting the resumption of the bearish trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for WTI oil.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are developing bearish structures. MACD performed the bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX signals that the bullish trend is losing momentum. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI OIL Neutral short-term buy watch these break-out levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the brutal March 08 multi-year High. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into a short-term Support while the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) remains the short-term Resistance.
Despite the Lower Highs trend-line, the price action remains rather neutral due to March's wild swings and high volatility, unless either the 93.10 Support or the 117.00 Resistance break.
A break below 93.10 should be bearish towards the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and then the December 20 low, but still it would be best to get a closing below the 85.50 High of 2021 before engaging into long-term selling.
A break above 117.00 should be bullish towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (152.60) long-term, which is the less likely scenario.
The safest strategy on the medium-term is to scalp inside the neutral zone.
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USOIL - WTI oil peaked and now it is headed lowerFor the past year, we were predominantly bullish on USOIL. However, this came to a change recently, and we turned neutral to bearish on USOIL. That is due to Strategic Petroleum Reserves being released in vast quantities, production hike talks, and the eventual need to lower energy prices. Therefore, despite the general bullish narrative, we make a contrarian case for the lower cost of oil. Indeed, we would like to set a long-term price for USOIL to 90 USD per barrel.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows USOIL on the daily time frame. It also shows the resistance at a slope (white line) and the bullish breakout above it (indicated by the yellow arrow). We will look for a potential breakdown in price and invalidation of the bullish breakout.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are neutral. However, MACD needs to be observed for potential bullish crossover above 0 points in the following days. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area, although it points to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX indicates the trend is weak. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI continues to develop a bearish structure. However, for the past three weeks, RSI started to flatten, making it neutral. MACD also started to flatten, making it neutral too. DM+ and DM- are bullish. ADX seems to have peaked; indeed, ADX started to decline, which suggests that the bullish trend of a higher degree is weakening.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTIUSD OIL bearish mediumtermWTIUSD OIL bearish
WTI broke below a key long-term pennant that had been squeezing the price action earlier in the week, with some technicians taking this as a sign that WTI will fall back towards support in the $90 area.
Projection would be 60. But on Mediumterm i think we will have conditions to go to 93.50 or 90.00. Would be our targets.
I will be a false breakout we will recover to retest ma50 4h near 102 area.
For now seems we retested today the pennant and we have conditions to have an impulse to the downside.
Targets. Supports, Resistances on chart.
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Be carefull, patient and discipline.
❗ DISCLAIMER ❗
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market.
But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss.
Only you can be responsible for your trading.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
This Plan can be changed anytime, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not.
So please don't just blindly follow this. The author of the analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage.
Legal Risk Disclosure
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.
Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
The FX market is a quickly changing environment and it requires full focus on the levels for the precise entry with low risk.
WTI OIL UPTREND TO 110WTI OIL UPTREND TO 110
Disclaimer:
I am not a financial advisor nor am I telling you what to do with your capital.
I am simply stating my thoughts on the financial markets.
Take what I say with caution and do your own research.
The financial markets are risky and should be treated as such. You are 100% responsible
for all of your actions within these markets, I am not at fault for any losses or wins you may acquire.
I never tell anyone what to do in these markets, I am simply making my opinions public.
Results are not typical so anything can happen in these markets, so proceed with caution.