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WTI oil - The end of oil bull marketIn early April 2022, we said the oil bull market peaked. Then, a bit later, we stated that if the Russian crude oil was to be banned in the EU, we would see another bounce in price and possibly a new top. Despite that, we set a long-term price target for USOIL at 90 USD; we still hold this price target as we continue to be bearish on oil. In addition to that, we would like to set a short-term price target for USOIL at 100 USD and a medium-term price target at 95 USD. Fundamental factors The FED is decided to pursue the destruction of demand, which will negatively impact the oil price as the stock market is poised to crash further down. Additionally, supply increases by the OPEC members threaten the high value of oil. Illustration 1.01 The WTI crude oil is down over 20% from its peak and within the technical bear market. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The ADX increases, which signals that the bearish trend is gaining momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform a bearish crossover. The ADX suggests that the bull trend has ended. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
10
USOIL 6th JULY 2022USOIL fell below USD 100 as recession fears grew, fueling concerns that the economic slowdown would cut demand for petroleum products. In the macro trend, oil tends to be bearish. By the end of this year if the economy is heading into a recession. In a recession scenario with rising unemployment, bankruptcy of households and firms, commodities will chase a downward cost curve as costs deflate and margins turn negative to encourage supply curbs. However, the decline in oil prices will actually benefit manufacturing companies. They will take cheap prices for supplies, after 2 quarters of prices soaring. USOIL D1
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
8
Crude Oil testing 2008 and 2014 key areas cont.The top of the 2014 volume area continues to hold price and will need to do so for price to continue higher In the last week, the volume point of control has shifted up from 91.6x to 107.6x with the increase in volume due to buying Question on timing: Has a low been put in place the week of 21-June or will price drift for several more weeks. The 45-period lookback on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd STD LR has seemed to have tight boundaries. I’m not sure if price will drift right several more weeks touching bottom of the 2nd STD LR before continuing up. Although options are expensive, could be opportunity for Oct/Nov 2022 calls. R4 traditional pivot for 2022 is close to the 2008 high so that would be my first target to close any Oct/Nov calls
NYMEX:CL1!
by mxb1961
USOIL 30th JUNE 2022The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers are expected to confirm as a mere formality their decision to expand oil production by 650,000 barrels per day in July and August. The OPEC+ group of producers including Russia, began two days of meetings on Wednesday, though sources said there was little prospect of agreement to pump more oil. The net drop in crude oil inventories was flattered by SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) releases, while the gasoline stock jump is because U.S. refineries are running at over 95% capacity
TVC:USOILShort
by DNP-FX
WTI OIL targeting 123.00WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a 4 day green 1D candle streak, the longest it has been in a month and is trading above above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see the pattern has been a Channel Up since the March 25 High as the market is attempting to recover the War high (129.50) of March 08. This time the price hasn't just rebounded on the bottom of the Channel Up but also on the longer-term Higher Lows trend-line that started after the December 02 2021 Low. A break below should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but until then we should continue buying towards the top of the Channel. A weekly closing above the 129.50 Resistance should be a long-term extension to the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at 145.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3
BEARS ATTACK THE MarketSo now, it is not just oil and oil products that trade way above historical averages, natural gas is way above the norm, too. Meanwhile, oil prices plunged on Friday morning as recession fears soared. White House Considers Export Caps to Tame Fuel Prices. According to Bloomberg, the Biden Administration is looking into capping fuel exports out of the US, with gasoline outflows already rising to 750,000 b/d this year, a topic that is most probably going to be raised at Energy Secretary Granholm’s meeting with oil refiners next week. Nord Stream 1 Goes Down with Throughput Issues. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) declared it had to cut throughput in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe, saying delays in Siemens equipment repairs force it to run at just 40% capacity, a claim disputed by the German government as spot prices soar. OPEC+ Admits Huge Underproduction, Again. As reported by Reuters, OPEC+ produced 2.695 million b/d below its production target in May, bringing total levels of deal compliance to 256%, with several African producers stuck in force majeure events and Russia seeing sanctions-driven production declines. US Pressures Iran By Sanctioning Chinese Firms. For the second time in less than a month, the US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Chinese and Emirati companies that helped export Iran’s petrochemicals, stepping up the pressure on Tehran but also squeezing buying possibilities for Asian buyers. Freeport LNG Aims for Full Return by Year-End. The largest US LNG liquefaction facility, Freeport LNG, said that it would remain fully offline until September following a pipeline blaze last week, with only partial operation expected through year-end. Chinese Refining Sees Steepest Fall in a Decade. Chinese refinery runs fell 11% year-on-year, the steepest such change in more than a decade, to average 12.7 million b/d as continuous COVID-19 lockdowns depressed domestic demand and despite weak refining led to inventory builds across the country. ExxonMobil Wants to Drill More in Guyana. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) sent a development plan to Guyana’s environmental authorities that covers a 12-well drilling campaign in the Canje and Kaieteur blocks, both adjacent to the discovery-prolific Stabroek, despite having found no commercial oil there previously. Houston Refinery Fire Underscores US Refinery Fragility. A blaze that took out the coking unit of LyondellBasell’s 270,000 b/d Houston refinery as become a timely reminder of the capacity losses that US refining has seen over the past decades, with the fire potentially bringing forward the refinery’s end-2023 shutdown. South Africa Wants to Join Russia Buying Spree. Inspired by India’s soaring purchases of Russian crude, South Africa’s energy minister said the country’s refineries should start buying Russian oil to curb rising fuel prices and alleviate the pressure on state coffers as the government ramped up energy subsidies. Australia’s Power Crunch Gets Worse. Australia’s power market operator suspended all spot market trading this week amidst widespread outages and coal-fueled power plants, aggravated by several generating companies curbing output as the government-mandated price cap of A$300 per MWh did not cover their production costs. Saudi Aramco Wants to Take Trading Arm to IPO. Saudi Aramco is planning to merge its two trading units, Aramco Trading and Motiva Trading, before reportedly carrying out an initial public offering of the trading group which mostly trades third-party volumes that are not covered by Aramco. Argentina Signs Pipeline Deal to Move Gas from Key Shale Play. Argentina’s state firm Energia Argentina signed a deal with pipeline company Tenaris (BIT:TEN) to build a 350-mile gas pipeline that would increase by 25% the capacity of gas currently moved from Vaca Muerta towards key consumption hubs in Buenos Aires. Germany Mandates States to Allocate Wind Farm Sites. The German government approved a bill that requires its 16 states to allocate a set minimum of land to onshore wind farms, with the target of hitting at least 2% of land allocated for wind farms by 2032. Saudi Aramco Develops a Liking for Solar. Saudi Arabia’s oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) plans to invest in 12 GW of solar and wind capacity, it vowed in its first-ever sustainability report, whilst also pledging to reduce upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035 and investing heavily into blue ammonia.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
WTI Crude Oil Short Setup on Daily Time FrameWe can see the price breaks below a major trend line after finding a resistance. We can wait for a pullback and see if it will go above the trendline. If trendline became a resistance, it is safe to say we have a short opportunity to short if goes below the latest low on the daily timeframe. The DMI also looks good and trending upward going above 25 level. If the -DI remains above the ADX, it will be a strong indicator to short.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn13326052
2
WTI Oil - New Highs to Come?It is incredibly difficult to analyse this commodity fundamentally so let's see what technical analysis may suggest? Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves): Since the sharp fall of March 2020 it is likely that we are observing the development of a global zig-zag ABC Five waves of the first impulse A completed in July 2021 Wave B took shape of a complex Running Correction WXY finishing in November 2021 And since then we can see formation of another impulse in wave C Waves 1 to 3 of this impulse culminating in March 2022 are quite clear which have been followed by a flat correction in the shape of Double Threes WXY The crux of the analysis is developing right now when the price started moving in a very choppy way The previous scenario still stands and it is very likely that we are observing development of an Ending Diagonal in wave 5 (see educational post below about the structure of this wave) Waves 1-3 have formed and we can expect correction of wave 4 to last at least until end of June / fist week of July to the level of $103, followed by the last zigzag to top the high of $129 This is quite complex scenario so it needs to be monitored against all the rules of Ending Diagonal. What do you think about WTI Oil and its short term prospects? Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves. Thanks Educational post on Ending Diagonal
TVC:USOILLong
by vitalalyt
1
Outlook on WTI Crude Oil: Bearish play seenOn the weekly time frame, prices are holding below a key area at 127.80 where we could see further downside below this area. On the H4 time frame, we are seeing a shift in order flow with the break of the recent low at 112.50. A pullback to the resistance area at 114.80, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension presents an opportunity to play the drop to our next support target at 103.80. This demand area lines up with the ascending trend line, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 1.272% Fibonacci extension. Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of bearish pressure as well, with prices holding below the Ichimoku cloud.
TVC:USOILShort
by shermzT
BCOil Breaks 2Day High 21-25June 2022BCO breaking 2D High very quickly after Asian Open. Tumoilsin Lybia,uncertainty and mixed participants,long-Term Trend Traders took profits at 127 area that was followed by the Russians announcements to increase the Russian oil production in 2023.And ofcourse the recesion fears of 2023. Technicallyis BCO still in the long area.Yesterday on 20th June 2023 the market was not able to reach the 20 Day low(Donchian),The very important resistance (115) was broken on Friday ,but the Bulls fought it back.AlsoYesterday The bears tried to break the heavily defended 113 Area, but the market came back to 1155 zone andmade a new high,shortly before BCO closed early( Juneenth!) Today the market opened at high and made 5 consequent Highs in row. The RSI 200 in positive territory. The RSI 9 and 6 confirm. Quarter VWAP is giving more green lights to be bullish(Short Term).If 127 becomes new Support,wewillsee150 USD before the summer time. 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OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
2
USOIL 20th JUNE 2022Before July, USOIL was seen moving in the consolidation channel area which tends to be bullish . in July, USOIL sentiment will tend to be bearish . The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member states announced plans to adjust oil production upward in July by 0.648 million barrels per day. In my view Oil prices are bearish but still not stable. Moderate bearish confirmation has not occurred, because the price has not yet breakout below the support area. So I will place a buy limit near the support area, with the target not exceeding the weekly resistance which is drawn in the red area. stop loss as well as sellstop below the support area.
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
2
OIL Switching Uptrend to DowntrendWe had a massive downtrend on Friday due to recession fears. Chances are we can see some pullback to the 115 or 116 areas which could be a great shorting opportunity. There are also opportunities of scalping quick longs but do not long at the smoothed moving averages or LR Channel tops (Linear Regression) as they can be rejected from there. My trading strategy for opening would be quick longs and then reshorting at higher levels region as there still are recession fears. The higher levels would be at 5min, 15 min, 1hr, 2hr, 4hr LR Channel tops where I would short. I do not expect a 119 area to be reached in the next week (maximum 117).
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by pennyclaimer
WTI OIL Correction not over yet.WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a strong 3 day correction. Its long-term trend since the December 02 2021 Low is better illustrated if we apply the Fibonacci Channel starting on that Low. As you see the extensions have worked very well in projecting Higher Highs. Right now the pull-back doesn't seem to be over. Either a bounce of the 1D RSI on its Buy Zone is needed or a hit on the price's Internal Higher Lows trend-line. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) happens to be exactly there, which is a trend-line untouched since December 27 2021. A rebound there can target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension again. On the other hand, a closing below the 0.0 Fib level can see Oil test the -0.5 extension for the first time, with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting just below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
4
WTI: Nearly There!WTI has nearly finished wave B in green in the upper third of the green zone between $111.72 and $126.25 or wave c in pink in the upper half of the pink zone between $122.81 and $126.17, respectively. As soon as it has accomplished this, WTI should turn downwards and head for the support at $102.66. After it has completed wave (A) in white below this mark, a countermovement should set WTI back above $102.66 before it can resume the descent. However, there is a 42% chance that WTI could continue to rise and climb above the resistance at $130.50, which would then lead to further ascent.
NYMEX:CL1!
by MarketIntel
WTI OIL heading to $160 long-termThis is not a new chart I'm sharing with you on WTI Crude Oil today, I've initially posted it 2 months ago, calling for a medium-term consolidation and then bullish break-out when the Resistance breaks, based on the striking similarities with the September 2020 - March 2021 pattern: It is time to update my thesis, as the Resistance broke and the similarities continue to be striking both in candle and RSI terms. The analysis is on the 1W time-frame, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) standing out. On the May 31 2021 1W candle, when the price broke and closed the week above the prior High/ Resistance, Oil eventually reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Currently that Fib level is at 159.00. With the 1W RSI well above its MA, it appears that WTI has enough momentum to break its prior High/ Resistance by July. This is a long-term thesis. I will be making updates on the 1D time-frame for shorter term trades. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
9