WTI-Öl: Correction meets supportTechnical analysis of WTI Crudeoil - viewed in the D1 chart
The US WTI oil price had reached the long-term resistance zone at USD 76.88 on July 6, where the price had reached a cyclical high in October 2018 and turned into a dramatic bear market. The consolidation that started at this point came as little surprise and ultimately resulted in a more pronounced downward correction. In terms of information, the OPEC + alliance's agreement to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day from August onwards was a burden.
First correction goal achieved
The correction target we expected at USD 67/68 has already been worked through with the price slide on Monday. In this horizontal support zone, in which the rising 100-day line is currently also having a supportive effect, the black gold is currently trying to stabilize. We can envision a rebound towards $ 70.79 / $ 72.20. The seasonality provides a tailwind into September. The corrective downtrend would only be called into question above the downtrend line at currently USD 74.25.
Plan for corrective expansion after recovery!
As long as this trend line remains intact, we favor further falling prices. This scenario would be confirmed with a sustained slide below the USD 65.00 mark. The medium-term correction target we expect in this case is USD 57.00-58.00 with an important intermediate stage at USD 61.58.
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa does not accept any liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided. The information provided does not constitute investment advice, purchase recommendations or investment brokerage.
Wticrudeoil
WTI bears overtake the psychological support at $71
In the real of the daily candles, the market closed last Friday with a Doji bar just above the psychological support at $71. The long-awaited OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where their members agreed on gradually adding supply to the market, brought skepticism to the energy sector.
Appealing projections about the global demand getting back to the pre-pandemic level of around 100 MMbdp in 2022 weren't enough bulls to regain control. Uncertainties have overtaken the market once again.
The American benchmark has erased 14% of gains from the previous high on July the 6th from $76.95 testing today the 65.88 level.
The latest news about the new virus strain has brought the most profound concern to the market where potential lockdown protocols could affect the oil demand. The risk-off mode could likely continue to full steam until this Wednesday with the US crude supply report.
Technically speaking, the price has reached a strong level, a previous supply zone below the 0.618 Fibonacci level, breaking the ascending trendline. The RSI is close to diving into an oversold area and forming a hidden bullish divergence.
As always, please remember to trade what you see, not what you think.
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price (a) reached the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up, (b) entered the Ichimoku Cloud and (c) the RSI hit its 1 year Support line.
Target: 77.80 (the previous Higher High).
Previous WTI OIL signal:
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CRUDE OIL - 73,54 Is Now ResistanceOur updated chart on WTI CRUDE OIL shows that the corerctyion is probably incomplete and the oirce under it's previous support/ now Resistance at 73.54
According to Reuters , Crude futures slipped on Monday as concerns over slowing global growth outweighed the prospect of tightening supply after talks among key producers to raise output in coming months stalled.
In the meantime, U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row as oil prices recently rose to their highest since Oct. 2018, prompting some drillers to return to the well pad. Clearly the intention of the US is to control prices, with CPI tomorrow going to be crucial data for what happens next with the US dollar.
On the other hand, last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, failed to reach an agreement to increase output from August while Saudi Arabia , the world's top crude oil exporter, will supply full contractual volumes of August-loading crude to at least five Asian countries but has turned down two of the buyers' requests for extra barrels....
In other words, the price is expected to keep being volatile but our charts suggest a short position unless it breaches over this crucial new resistance (73,54$).
the FXPROFESSOR
WTI CRUDE RESUMING IT'S UPTREND 07 JulyPrice has been moving within a channel as my H4 chart shows. Both channel extremities have been respected several times already.
The higher time frame confirms a bullish trend in place... these reasons and a tight stop give me all the reasons I need to take a long.
I will be doing that as soon as the Asian trading session settles down in a couple of hours.
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Always use sound money and risk management in all your trades.
OIL- OPEC Deal or No Deal?What a lovely day this is, what a fantastic thing Technical Analysis is.
Yes, we took profit perfectly today on what was a rather easy and predictable trade.
The price dropped minutes later from resistance to support and off from support bouncing back up at the moment.
What is important to understand now is the fundamentals.
Oil price surge triggers new inflation fears as Opec talks break down
The United Arab Emirates refused Saudi Arabia’s demands to increase production, leaving the meeting collapsing with no decision.
Some analysts are now predicting oil will climb to $100 a barrel. Economists said surging oil prices threaten to destabilise the world economy’s fight back from the Covid doldrums. As well as being key to the cost of powering factories, oil and its associated products form a key element in most consumer goods...
Check the idea below and remember who the greatest Bull of ALL TIMES is...(inflation)
WTI before RESISTANCE ZONE!Technical analysis of WTI CRUDE OIL
The US WTI oil price shows a dynamic long-term upward trend. The last relevant follow-up buy signal in the medium term was generated by the listing at the beginning of June with the bullish dissolution of several weeks of sideways consolidation. Most recently, differences within the OPEC + alliance acted as an informational price driver. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could not agree on the specific conditions for an increase in the production quotas in August. Previously, there had been speculation about an upcoming expansion of production by 400,000 barrels per day with a simultaneous extension of the production restrictions until the end of 2022 (currently April 2022). There is now a threat of an expansion of the supply deficit with correspondingly further increases in prices. But some observers do not rule out a complete breakup of the alliance either. That would then mean the elimination of the current production restrictions and a price war, which is likely to put the prices under massive pressure. Market participants are currently interpreting the differences as driving prices. However, the situation is extremely uncertain, as the alliance can get together again at short notice and decide on the planned expansion of production.
Central hurdle ahead
In terms of the chart, the focus is on the long-term significant resistance zone at USD 76.88, which is within shouting distance. There the price had made a cyclical high in October 2018 and had turned into a dramatic bear market. Accordingly, a consolidation at this point would not surprise us. Signals for this remain to be seen, however. We see possible expansion targets in the event of an immediate breakthrough above this hurdle at USD 78.61 and USD 85.20. Looking to the bottom, the listing has closest support areas at $ 74.42 and $ 72.00. A slide below the latter level would, in our view, make a more pronounced correction towards USD 67/68 likely.
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa accepts no liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided. The information provided does not constitute investment advice, purchase recommendations or investment brokerage.
WTI: Swing High?A Rising Wedge within a potential Ascending Channel.
And the same old game of waiting for a Breakout and a Retest?
Current PA is:
1. At an Critical Level of $75.00 (Big, Round Number);
2. At the Apex of the Rising Wedge, and
3. Been capped by the Resistance of the potential Ascending Channel.
The coming Candlestick Pattern next week will helps to decide the direction.
Nevertheless, I am Bearish Bias about Oil because of the appearance of a Northern Doji right at the apex of the Wedge. However, take note that it is a Friday Candle before the US Holiday.
I am of the opinion that if ever an Evening Doji Star is developed, it could possibly send the Oil down to well below the $72 areas.
Disclaimer: “Trade at your Own Risk”
WTI bulls welcoming July
Bulls took control before the opening of the London session, taking the American benchmark to fresh grounds testing the $74.52 level. ON WEDNESDAY, the US energy market reported a drawdown of 6.7MM in their inventories, signaling a potential upward momentum.
However, in the long run, we may potentially see a market correction after two months of a clear bullish market.
The Delta COVID variant might bring some concern to the market and the still unheard details from the OPEC+ on how to inject their spare capacity into the market.
In the short-term, the price may challenges recent highs, despite the virus variant and Cartel supply. Although technically speaking, if bulls fail to conquer the $80 mark, we could expect some correction towards the previous supply level in confluence with the ascending trendline around the $66 handle. Let's see what the energy market brings in July.
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WTI OIL Channel Up rejection shows strong pull-back nextPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the price got rejected on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up. This will be confirmed once the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross.
Target: The 4H MA200 initially (red trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in extension where yuo can shift to a buy.
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WTI OIL overbought stillPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy once the price breaks below the 1D MA50 again (blue trend-line).
Target: 76.00 (closer to the top of the inner Channel).
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WTI Oil An interesting fractalWhat do you think of this fractal on the 1W time-frame? The price action since mid 2020 resembles that from early 2017 to mid-late 2018. During that time, WTI started off a Channel Down (blue), then as it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) it rose aggressive and after it broke above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) as well, it entered a a 9 month Channel Up (green) that eventually led to the October - December 2018 collapse. During that Channel Up, a 1W Golden Cross got formed.
Since mid 2020, the price seems to be following the 2017/2018 sequence. We are currently inside the (green) Channel Up. Even the RSI and MACD are printing similar sequences. Will another 1W Golden Cross emerge that will lead the Channel Up to a blow-off top? What do you think?
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WTI Oil : 73.75-76 level possible short term target ?Seems like a clear upside break out with a short term support near 67 handle ( previous resistance) + SSI is around 30% on an average
Trend : Bullish
Signal : Buy @ 68.50 (weekly pivot) , Buy limits above 64.25 - 66.00 (Supports)
Strategy : Split positions
Target : 73.75 - 76 Handle
Stop Loss : Manual close / Parallel position below 64
WTI visited high grounds
The American oil benchmark was able to visit higher grounds, testing the 69.37 handle, a level that hasn't been seen in 2 years.
However, sellers have shown some control in the daily candles forming a bearish pin bar right after the visit. Let's pay attention to EIA inventory report in about 3 hrs.
In case of a correction, the handle about 66.30 shows some strong resistance with 382 Fib and ascending trendline in confluence.
WTI Oil : Upside break out is possible targeting 72-74 Handle As of now trading around 67 area with speculative sentiment index around 20% hence an upside break out is highly possible targeting the 72+ levels coming weeks . However, considering the trade on the last day of month + price around the range top , You can try putting sell limit orders 100-150 pips above the 67 top although success rate will probably very low as the HERD is in mass selling mode.
Trend : Up
Pattern : Possible upside break out
Signal : Buy Dips
Target : 72-74 handle
Trade to try : Sell limit @ 68-68.50
Stop Loss : 69
Target : 63-64
Accuracy : Less than 50%
WTI Oil : Stop Hunt /HH to 67.80 -68.20 handle possibleAfter the stop hunt /HL around 61.65 ,Price returned to the old daily range 63.50-67 indicating it will continue to trade inside the range or an upside break out since the SSI is around 25% and every dip is bought strongly .
Trend : Range
Signal : Sell Limit 67.80-68.20
Stop Loss : 68.75
Target : 65-63.75