WTI OIL had the biggest weekly rise since May 31 2020!WTI Crude Oil posted last week the strongest 1W candle (+10.30%) since May 31 2020 (+11.44%). What can this possibly mean for future prices? Alone nothing. But as you see, last week's bounce came after a 1W RSI touch on the 43.50 Support which has been holding since May 2020 as well. That makes the bullish case stronger but based on the September - October 2020 fractal (right before the U.S. elections) we may see one last pull-back before a new rally. As seen on the chart, that pull-back may find Support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as this holds, the trend will remain bullish, so for a swing trader, the best course of action would be to scale with a buy now and if the price pulls back, add another closer to the 1W MA50.
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Wticrudeoil
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar was little changed on Wednesday as oil prices slowed after a big two-day advance, US Treasury yields move higher, and investors awaited clues on the tapering of economic support by the Federal Reserve at this week’s Jackson Hole symposium.
Commenting on their outlook and approach to trading USD, Lombard Odier Group noted that “there’s been skittishness over growth and sector rotations, which has boosted the dollar because of its safe-haven status.
In the short term, we’re still going to be trading in ranges, with upside bias. Dollar underperformance after Jackson Hole could be a buying opportunity ahead of the release of US data next week, including the non-farm payrolls report for August… Potential positive surprises from the NFP in particular could out QE (quantitative easing) taper back among the main FX market drivers and support the USD.”
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsHigh-Beta – AUD, CAD and NZD benefited from rising commodity prices on Tuesday, as markets set aside concerns about the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant. The notable outperformer in the commodities complex was oil prices, with WTI approaching $68 per barrel, up almost $2.50/+3% on the day.
Indeed, following today’s strong performance in WTI, TD Securities noted that: “With the impact on demand fueling chatter that OPEC+’s next monthly output hike could be delayed, and China’s “Zero-Covid” strategy appearing to have quickly contained the outbreak, crude oil could once again have a solid footing to challenge the $70s.”
WTI OIL Golden Cross 1W. One last top before major correction?Last week the Golden Cross (when the MA50 crosses over the MA200) on the 1W time-frame for WTI Oil went unnoticed. Last time we had a 1W Golden Cross was way back in April 2018. This raises an interesting fractal comparison.
As you see the price action when the Golden Cross happens is within a Channel Up both now then in 2018. Interestingly enough, when the Channel Up pattern started on both occasions, the RSI started printing Lower Highs, meaning it was on a Bearish Divergence. In 2018 that ultimately led to a blow-off top. Both sequences hit the $77.00 as their Highs. Does that fractal comparison indicate that WTI has one last dead-cat bounce to make before a major correction? What do you think?
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WTI pressured by Delta variants breakoutAs forecasted, the sellers' pressure continues to control the energy market. After the H&S reversal pattern, the market consolidates while shaping a bearish continuation flag that dropped the WTI price towards a major ascending trendline.
Bulls are struggling to keep the price above the $67 handle. Complicated task as headlines about China mobility restrictions tied up to the Delta variant and OPEC+ increased supply for this months remains to hover the market.
Failing to hold the fortress at $67 may bring prices to July levels and re-test the 65 handle.
WTICOUSD may start to rise by 10%.WTICOUSD may start to rise by 10%. WTI appears to be building a wider accumulation range. Apparently, the accumulation band is dominated by fractal theory rather than the usual regularities of accumulation bands. Therefore, I assume that the "accumulation fractal" shown in the figure is replicated. At present, I expect a rise again. Its target price : 74.52 usd
WTI OIL needs to break this Lower Highs trend-linePattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks or if the MACD forms a Bullish Cross.
Target: 80.00 (below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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WTI-Öl: Correction meets supportTechnical analysis of WTI Crudeoil - viewed in the D1 chart
The US WTI oil price had reached the long-term resistance zone at USD 76.88 on July 6, where the price had reached a cyclical high in October 2018 and turned into a dramatic bear market. The consolidation that started at this point came as little surprise and ultimately resulted in a more pronounced downward correction. In terms of information, the OPEC + alliance's agreement to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day from August onwards was a burden.
First correction goal achieved
The correction target we expected at USD 67/68 has already been worked through with the price slide on Monday. In this horizontal support zone, in which the rising 100-day line is currently also having a supportive effect, the black gold is currently trying to stabilize. We can envision a rebound towards $ 70.79 / $ 72.20. The seasonality provides a tailwind into September. The corrective downtrend would only be called into question above the downtrend line at currently USD 74.25.
Plan for corrective expansion after recovery!
As long as this trend line remains intact, we favor further falling prices. This scenario would be confirmed with a sustained slide below the USD 65.00 mark. The medium-term correction target we expect in this case is USD 57.00-58.00 with an important intermediate stage at USD 61.58.
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa does not accept any liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided. The information provided does not constitute investment advice, purchase recommendations or investment brokerage.
WTI bears overtake the psychological support at $71
In the real of the daily candles, the market closed last Friday with a Doji bar just above the psychological support at $71. The long-awaited OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where their members agreed on gradually adding supply to the market, brought skepticism to the energy sector.
Appealing projections about the global demand getting back to the pre-pandemic level of around 100 MMbdp in 2022 weren't enough bulls to regain control. Uncertainties have overtaken the market once again.
The American benchmark has erased 14% of gains from the previous high on July the 6th from $76.95 testing today the 65.88 level.
The latest news about the new virus strain has brought the most profound concern to the market where potential lockdown protocols could affect the oil demand. The risk-off mode could likely continue to full steam until this Wednesday with the US crude supply report.
Technically speaking, the price has reached a strong level, a previous supply zone below the 0.618 Fibonacci level, breaking the ascending trendline. The RSI is close to diving into an oversold area and forming a hidden bullish divergence.
As always, please remember to trade what you see, not what you think.
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price (a) reached the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up, (b) entered the Ichimoku Cloud and (c) the RSI hit its 1 year Support line.
Target: 77.80 (the previous Higher High).
Previous WTI OIL signal:
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CRUDE OIL - 73,54 Is Now ResistanceOur updated chart on WTI CRUDE OIL shows that the corerctyion is probably incomplete and the oirce under it's previous support/ now Resistance at 73.54
According to Reuters , Crude futures slipped on Monday as concerns over slowing global growth outweighed the prospect of tightening supply after talks among key producers to raise output in coming months stalled.
In the meantime, U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row as oil prices recently rose to their highest since Oct. 2018, prompting some drillers to return to the well pad. Clearly the intention of the US is to control prices, with CPI tomorrow going to be crucial data for what happens next with the US dollar.
On the other hand, last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, failed to reach an agreement to increase output from August while Saudi Arabia , the world's top crude oil exporter, will supply full contractual volumes of August-loading crude to at least five Asian countries but has turned down two of the buyers' requests for extra barrels....
In other words, the price is expected to keep being volatile but our charts suggest a short position unless it breaches over this crucial new resistance (73,54$).
the FXPROFESSOR
WTI CRUDE RESUMING IT'S UPTREND 07 JulyPrice has been moving within a channel as my H4 chart shows. Both channel extremities have been respected several times already.
The higher time frame confirms a bullish trend in place... these reasons and a tight stop give me all the reasons I need to take a long.
I will be doing that as soon as the Asian trading session settles down in a couple of hours.
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Always use sound money and risk management in all your trades.
OIL- OPEC Deal or No Deal?What a lovely day this is, what a fantastic thing Technical Analysis is.
Yes, we took profit perfectly today on what was a rather easy and predictable trade.
The price dropped minutes later from resistance to support and off from support bouncing back up at the moment.
What is important to understand now is the fundamentals.
Oil price surge triggers new inflation fears as Opec talks break down
The United Arab Emirates refused Saudi Arabia’s demands to increase production, leaving the meeting collapsing with no decision.
Some analysts are now predicting oil will climb to $100 a barrel. Economists said surging oil prices threaten to destabilise the world economy’s fight back from the Covid doldrums. As well as being key to the cost of powering factories, oil and its associated products form a key element in most consumer goods...
Check the idea below and remember who the greatest Bull of ALL TIMES is...(inflation)
WTI before RESISTANCE ZONE!Technical analysis of WTI CRUDE OIL
The US WTI oil price shows a dynamic long-term upward trend. The last relevant follow-up buy signal in the medium term was generated by the listing at the beginning of June with the bullish dissolution of several weeks of sideways consolidation. Most recently, differences within the OPEC + alliance acted as an informational price driver. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could not agree on the specific conditions for an increase in the production quotas in August. Previously, there had been speculation about an upcoming expansion of production by 400,000 barrels per day with a simultaneous extension of the production restrictions until the end of 2022 (currently April 2022). There is now a threat of an expansion of the supply deficit with correspondingly further increases in prices. But some observers do not rule out a complete breakup of the alliance either. That would then mean the elimination of the current production restrictions and a price war, which is likely to put the prices under massive pressure. Market participants are currently interpreting the differences as driving prices. However, the situation is extremely uncertain, as the alliance can get together again at short notice and decide on the planned expansion of production.
Central hurdle ahead
In terms of the chart, the focus is on the long-term significant resistance zone at USD 76.88, which is within shouting distance. There the price had made a cyclical high in October 2018 and had turned into a dramatic bear market. Accordingly, a consolidation at this point would not surprise us. Signals for this remain to be seen, however. We see possible expansion targets in the event of an immediate breakthrough above this hurdle at USD 78.61 and USD 85.20. Looking to the bottom, the listing has closest support areas at $ 74.42 and $ 72.00. A slide below the latter level would, in our view, make a more pronounced correction towards USD 67/68 likely.
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa accepts no liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided. The information provided does not constitute investment advice, purchase recommendations or investment brokerage.
WTI: Swing High?A Rising Wedge within a potential Ascending Channel.
And the same old game of waiting for a Breakout and a Retest?
Current PA is:
1. At an Critical Level of $75.00 (Big, Round Number);
2. At the Apex of the Rising Wedge, and
3. Been capped by the Resistance of the potential Ascending Channel.
The coming Candlestick Pattern next week will helps to decide the direction.
Nevertheless, I am Bearish Bias about Oil because of the appearance of a Northern Doji right at the apex of the Wedge. However, take note that it is a Friday Candle before the US Holiday.
I am of the opinion that if ever an Evening Doji Star is developed, it could possibly send the Oil down to well below the $72 areas.
Disclaimer: “Trade at your Own Risk”