WTI before decisionThe short-term downward trend, since the movement high of 8 March, continues to hold the black gold of the global economy in check. As can be seen impressively, US WTI oil has already been clearly rejected from this trend line several times and especially just yesterday at the start of the week. Monday's setback almost took it back to support at USD 57.40. Accordingly, the tension could not be greater. A defence of this level still allows a quick upward reaction to 62.00 USD. If there is further buying interest, a reaction to the level of 66.00 USD is possible, before the round 70.00 USD mark could be put on the agenda again. However, the dominance on the long side should come into play immediately.
If, on the other hand, the support level of USD 57.40 is abandoned, one would have to take into account an extension of the price weakness to the next support level at USD 52.00. A dip below this level would be a serious threat to the price. A dip below this level would be critical for the further course.
Wticrudeoil
Crude Oil - Thoughts for 5 April 20218 hr chart with monthly view
Possible flag forming starting 23 March with last leg under development
50% retrace from 23rd low is 62.5x
Volume profile from March is outside of February which could be indicating a sideways month
April S1 is 55.1x and R1 is 65.8x and could possibly form the trading range for the month
Short term looking for a setup to take price first to S1 and then to R1 toward end of April
4hr Chart with weekly view
Looking at flag on chart with last leg under development
Volume profile for coming week inside last week's indicating a possible breakout week
Pivots compressing week over week with previous week compress 41% and this past week an additional 28%
Looking for fill of flag then larger correction down to April S1 (55.1x). Not sure how fast correct will occur or if this week consolidates more.
Weekly R1 is 62.71 and potential target for top of flag
100 tick renko
DEMA flipped negative signaling more down to come
looking for red brick with long wick high for trigger to buy June Puts
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50 tick renko
Flag developing. looking for completion to find a signal or trigger
Crude oil. LongOil price rises as Suez Canal developments offset by Russia’s crude output curbs.
Buying wti above the triangle for beautiful swing trade.
Entry @ 61.35
Tp 67.50
Sl 59.00
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE FUTURE MAY FALL IN APRILThe chart give you all details of ELLIOT wave count for NYMEX light sweet crude futures.
I noticed that his commodity recovered in 'V' shape from ABYSS(3rd of3of wave5) and erased all its losses to $60
But this recovery has one more test for final wave C5v, I assume that this will finish nextmonth (april)for 0.618 times of c5i at $46
comments are welcome
The chop in WTI continues...The chop in WTI continues as volatility & supply give mixed signals.
Yesterday we highlighted the importance of keeping track of the move in OVX (oil volatility) after the big spike into the close on Wednesday. At the open yesterday, we saw OVX come down sharply but failed to take out the prior low and confirmed the recent upward trending move in volatility is still in place (negative for the underlying asset).
Thus, from a pure volatility point of view the probability if higher for further downside for WTI. However, the issue with the Suez Canal being blocked, and reports out earlier during Asia-Pac that the efforts to unblock the ship might take another week saw some relief for Oil prices.
So, where to from here? The med-term bias remains tilted to the upside, but we've had very violent moves in volatility over the past few sessions which is a warning sign.
For now, the best option is to wait and see how volatility behaves in today's session. If the Suez concerns are enough to keep price elevated and we see OVX taking out recent lows, that could be setting up for a long opportunity.
However, if we see OVX maintain it's upward trending move despite the more constructive price action, it might be best to stay on the side lines in the short-term.
WTI on the verge of a reversal?The rally of black gold in the form of the oil price, especially the WTI grade, peaked at the beginning of the month in the direction of the USD 70.00 mark. The appreciation, which became increasingly pronounced with the breakout at the end of 2020, ended just before this. The support level around USD 59.00 per barrel was fiercely contested these days. However, with yesterday's price weakness, after the impulse recovery from the talk, WTI oil is again at a stalemate. If new lows can be prevented, there could be a rapid upward movement to USD 62.00 and beyond to USD 66.00 as part of the defence of the upward trend line since December. The USD 70.00 mark would be within reach again.
Below USD 57.40, on the other hand, a further downward wave to the next support at USD 52.00 would have to be expected. A dip below this would be critical. Contrary to the actually bullish seasonality, there could then be further declines to 48.00 and 46.00 USD.
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What does yesterday meteoric spike in OVX mean for WTI?We don't know yet. OVX shot up to 64.91 into yesterday's close. It is unclear whether this might be a glitch on CBOE's side, or whether it might be month-end or quarter-end related, but it was a meteoric jump.
To put the size of the move into context, very recently in Septmeber and November when we had similar spike, it came as a result of a 16% and 14% drop in WTI. Compared to yesterday where prices barely moved 2% from the close to the Asia-Pac lows.
The challenges at the Suez Canal might have led to an abnormal increase in implied volatility, but if that os the case it would be a major "over-reaction" on the options side of the market. The other possibility is that the recent drop in prices led to a surge hedging with holders of underlying oil longs potentially buying up downside protection.
Whatever the reason, it's too early to tell how this might affect prices. Usually, this type of move would suggest a push lower in prices, but WTI has remained very calm, for now at least. In the meantime, with the warnings of a potential messy month-end and quarter-end rebalancing for equities and fixed income, we do want to tread carefully here.
WTI OIL Rebound on the 1D MA50Pattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price hit the 1D MA50 (green dotted line) and rebounded while the 4H MACD made a Bullish Cross.
Target: 69.00 (the 2.0 Fib extension) and 72.00 (the 2.5 Fib extension).
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USOIL BUY TILL 77$ BARREL AS I HAD PREDICT IN OUR PREVIOUS ANALYSIS THAT US OIL (CRUDE) IS GOING TO ACHIEVE 60$ WHICH IS SUCCESSFULLY DONE
AND NOW IT HAD BREAK THAT LEVEL AND TRADING 66$ WE ARE PLANING TO BUY OIL AGAIN ONCE IT WILL RETRACE TILL BUYING ZONE AND FROM THIS SUPPORT
WE WILL BUY AGAIN MORE OIL TILL DESIGN OUR NEW LEVELS
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A look at WTI Crude Oil on the daily, last resistance level!Good morning, as you can see from the chart we are coming into the last reistance level for WTI Crude oil at 63.3-63.4 range. From there a clean break above and we open up the 66-76 level for oil. Watch in conjunction both USO and UCO as indicators of the strength of the move.
Crude Oil WTI ending 19-February-2021I believe there are several key areas that were broken this week that will need to be tested before price continues to move up .
The first item is the volume point of control (POC) from January 2020. This link was never test and now price, this week, broke through. A key indicator of future price movement will be if this line becomes support for price. If price falls below and cannot move back above, then future highs may be questionable.
The second item is the volume POC in February 2021 that is currently in progress. This POC is aligned with the Jan 2020 POC and will be of interest to see if this will provide support too with same analysis.
The third item is the February 2021 R2 level which provided support earlier in the month. The February R3 level acted as resistance earlier in the week and now it will be key for R2 to provide support for higher prices.
The last key area of support could be the 20ema. Price may consolidate the first part of the coming week to allow these two to converge.
CRUDE OIL~SHOOTING STAR AS SIGN OF REVERSALHello traders and investors,
Welcome to technical analysis of CRUDE OIL.
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we see shooting star candlestick near major weekly resistance on weekly chart , this can be sign of reversal .
hidden bearish divergence also gives us indication of bears are coming soon.
WTI CRUDE INTRADAY OPPORTUNITYWTI Crude is beginning to show signs of weakness after a 4 months bullrun. We see the possibility of a short term sell off to 57.40 a QP level with potential buyside liquidity. There are two potential areas of entry: 60.00 a QP level and 60.62 a OB level. Both positions targeting 57.50 with an oportunity to take some profit at 58.50.
This does not suffice as a signal or financial advice so please do your due deligence.
Open your favorite energy drink boys: we're bullish with wingsMy crystal ball has again spoken to me: USOIL be pumpin' it. And not just from the ground. Covid is saying a big NO to newer sources of energy. This year we're falling back on the good old black gold. So bring out your Justin boots and go loooong on that sweet USOIL, partner.
💡WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
51.60 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 51.60 on 02/01/2021, so more gains to resistance(s) 63.10, 66.50, 72.55 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 79.
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💡WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
51.60 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 51.60 on 02/01/2021, so more gains to resistance(s) 63.10, 66.50, 72.55 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 79.
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. . . . . Please show your support back,
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. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️
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