NYSE:WTI P-Modeling Pt 2. Harmonic Strings of The Illusive CajunWelcome Hyperspace Agent.
This is an analysis of WTI OIL.
In order to understand where we are now, you must see the entire time-series of Part One.
Press Play first.. Then View Snapshots In Order
Then scroll to see Time-Series Snapshots In order. This idea is from Sept 2019.
If you skip the step above.. you won't understand... how i progressed to what I am presenting now.
Or if you simply don't care.. That is perfectly ok! No one is forcing you.
But you prob won't get it either way. And if you do...? well.. gold star for youuu. .
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Nothing is placed randomly. The original idea *PART ONE* nailed the targets, but was incorrect on timing. However, once adjusted it can be viewed in Time-Series fashion how the targets were indeed hit quite in an interesting manner. Both Part One and Two are on the same time-frame. The inverted cup and handle was executed. It had a harmonic exit.. so my initial timing was off. This was validated with the snapshots in Part One. But then it deviated after completing the original harmonic goals.. So two propositions began to develop.
Proposition A is in the yellow trend.
Proposition B is in the Red trend.
We inch a tad higher? and Wham..Bam. Slapped down..
Catalyst.. Dropped demand of oil as USA and globe enters Wave Two of Covid-19. or
The idea is we have a second bottom. But a true Bottom. That is outlined in Proposition B. Adam and Eve as they may call it I guess?..
I think we are going to execute Proposition B. Mere Penny's.
However, keep an eye on proposition A and the structure of the chosen fractal vs the actualization of the trending.
It will not be exact... Not always at least. ;)
This is simply an update to see how the rest of the story plays out.
There is def a lot of validity to it. Now let's see if we can refine it further..
Trial and Error.
Failure is a necessary component of success.
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me,
Glitch420
Wticrudeoil
USOIL Golden ShortGood day, snipers. Here in the USOIL, we can see that price is at the Golden Zone, the 61.8 Fib Level and is also a key area of resistance. Price is also in an overall downtrend so, I would be looking for shorts only. We just have to wait for a bearish signal like a candlestick pattern to confirm that the bears have stepped in.
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WTI Oil: Made a Top formation on 4H. Two possible rebound pointsWTI Crude Oil is trading within a Channel Up on the 4H chart (RSI = 36.632, MACD = 0.170, ADX = 31.347). The MACD turned flat and as you see on the chart that has been a signal of a top formation on three previous occasions. In two of them the price dropped a little more than -11% and on the other around -15.50%. The Symmetrical Support zone that held on three occasions since June 16th is 37.50 - 37.00. It is possible to see the price rebound either there or a little earlier on the 4H MA200.
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oas#OAS update proceed with extreme caution, could be a small bounce off the TL if u buy use a tight SL set right below that BTL.
US OIL: Weakness In Bullish MomentumHi Traders,
WTI is showing signs of slowing bullish momentum and will likely make a case for downside in the coming sessions. We are currently looking at a 5 wave ending diagonal, and this structure is a reversal pattern. Don't miss this move and look for short entries only when price confirms.
Regards
Wave Theorist
USOIL 40.10 +0.79 IDEA Good Day Everyone
Here's an idea on USOIL that has been trading in an uptrend inside an ascending channel and saw a good day yesterday seems it could still climb higher to test resistance level 42.50 as the S&P500 future pointed higher after positive chinese manufacturing PMI data, but also looking at a scenario of bears coming into play and pushing oil down as we wait for the canadian GDP data and fundamentals on oil today.
will look for significant moves to the downside unless the channel holds....
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US Oil short to 35 maybe lowerHere we can see an awful two bar reversal pattern on the daily with strong divergence on the MACDH. It seems that no sooner did oil fill the long term gap to 41.5 that it immediately sold off. I've been day trading it short since 41, here we can see the full horrible daily picture now.
Looks like a lot more bearishness to come, even more so perhaps once the 4 and 1 hr moving averages have turned properly negative.
WTI Crude Oil: Bullish on the short-term.WTI is trading within a Channel Up on the 4H chart (RSI = 56.026, MACD = 0.100, ADX = 22.319) having successfully crossed the 4H MA50. This has been typically a bullish extension sign since May 28th. We are bullish aiming at 41.50 - 42.00.
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A ROLLERCOASTER WEEK FOR THE CRUDE OIL MARKETOil prices started this week controlled by the bulls in a positive note, being able to test 41.61$ per barrel recording a fresh high for the month, only to finally drop after the risk sentiment saw a late knockdown in Asia and increase in new cases in the United States of America, as market hefts in an incoming fresh virus update.
However, the WTI benchmark was able to "U" turns yesterday from 37.17$ low and claim back almost 6% of lost ground in the pullback. From a broader look, the market will continue to trade sideways, containing prices by technicalities. From the fundamental point of view, there is no sign of bullishness but the opposite. This week an increase in the inventories reported by EIA, newly infected citizens reported in different states in North America, the second wave in Asia and critical situation in Latin America, will continue to shadow the crude oil demand.
Technical reading in the intraday charts at the H4 realm, price held its grounds right above the golden Fibonacci level 6.18, saved by the critical support zone follow by the confluence of a demand zone and descending trendline, as the last line of defense to avoiding the re-test of the 34$ handle. MACD is still showing some uptrend preference and is about to form a golden cross for bullish confirmation with RSI hovering in nobody's land.
Oil prices edged higher in a volatile session on Thursday, finding some support after declining earlier, attaining support from signs of a minimal improvement in the US economy, but rising cases of COVID-19 in some states capped these gains. The same day the US Department of Commerce said in its advance estimate exports of industrial supplies, which include crude oil and petroleum products, dropped by 11.8 percent month on month in May to US$29.9 billion.
Now in the far east, according to Reuter, China is set to import 0.8-1.3 Mb/d less in August and September than it did in May. Higher oil prices, higher inventories, and worries about the second wave of coronavirus infections discourage purchases from Chinese refiners.
Indisputably, the Coronavirus will continue to damper the world economy, where central banks have unleashed trillions of dollars in stimulus while investors are still waiting for any confirmation from OPEC+ and further plan to cut production beyond July. With a grey horizon for the black commodity, see you all next week.
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WTIStill seeing this massive IH&S forming and crude oil. I am watching WLL & OAS and few others bottoming today and looking ready for another push higher.
But part of me thinks the next push will be a LH on HTFs B4 crude slams down to $20.
Weekly RSI on many stocks r in overbought territory and that will probably be the final shake out.
Hourly RSI up to daily r way oversold, meaning there is a nice bounce coming B4 the weekly RSI resets all indicators.
WTI H4 SHORT PRICE ACTION FORECAST WTI under sellers pressure, breaking trendline and retesting it after consolidation, together with MACD showing diminished bullish momentum, for a bearish bias confirmation.
The order:
Type: sell-limit
S/L: 84 pips - R:R | 1:2 -
T/P: aiming at the key support level by Fib
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Divergence extension part 1. R:R2 15% profitHello everyone,
In updates and comments below this chart I would like to focus on the Divergences extensions
Tip: With longer extension on divergence comes bigger and faster reversal (Work both ways)
I personally would add more on leveraged shorts during breakdown of blue line (uptrend)
as I see Oil finishing W5, filling gap, forming bearish divergence and possibly breaking the uptrend
The minimum price to correct should be the yellow line range (Where the first point of bearish divergence formed)
ChaChain
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Disclaimer:
I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
OIL Bearish Short SellIf price breaks the blue trend line we wait for it to close below 39.00, then we take a sell with 37.48 as first TP and 34.59 final TP.
Bullish Trend on USOILRecently, we have been observing a lot of fundamental events related to oil, such as the urgent meeting of OPEC /+ and the news of a cut of 9.7 million barrels per day. I will not expound the entire chronicle of events since it is very easy to find it on the Internet. In my opinion, oil this year should reach a level of $ 65 per barrel.
The Russians and the Saudis played a great game in a time of chaos, now the time has come to restore balance.
The only negative factor is that due to the epidemic, borders are closed and oil demand is reduced. But in anyways oil should not be sold at the same cost as its own.
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US Oil :Correction likely to complete around 32.50 - 31.25 April 2020 low to the short term high around the 40 handle , Us oil likely to complete its correction around the 50 day exponential moving average around 32.50 or slightly below it . As of now , its testing the 100 day exponential moving average around 35.50 and price likely to consolidate until Thursday as the investors waiting for output from the JMMC/OPEC meetings . World stock indices and crude oil gave up the invincible gain since the crash as investors saw the domination of risk aversion/Powell comments on the last FED meeting.
Major levels to consider are :
35.50 - EMA 100 , breaking this level will let the price to drop further towards the 50 day EMA around 32.50 on the other side if this 35.50 short term supports holds then we can expect another leg up towards the 200 day EMA around 42.50
Urgent! WTI has successfully tested the broken support on D1As we've seen in our previous post, we succeeded to expect what will happen and we successfully had reached our target of 37$.
Please note that our game now is on the daily chart as the price could successfully break the 37$ level which was a very important historical support, and then retested it on the H4 chart by making a bullish channel to touch the point and then to fall down, then it made a double-top formation on the h1 chart and RSI warning us that it's time to short.
But on the D1 chart, why did it break the support then retested it? where it's going to?
If you have a good eye, you'd see a double-bottom formation with a broken neckline on the 28$ level, but we haven't tested this line yet, so we need a confirmation between the area of 28$ - 32$. Yeah, a wide area, but it's because we have some strong resistances on 32.5$ (Fibo 23% of the bullish wave that started from 6.5$ + a historical resistance), 31$ (historical resistance, then 28$ (the neckline resistance). So, those should be our main targets in the long-term.
When to sell on the H4 chart?
As I've just said, it broke the 37$ level then went down to 34.4$, and from that point, it started to make a bullish channel and went to test our broken support. So, we need a H4 candle to close below the down-trend of the bullish channel, and we are about to have this right now, although it may go up a bit to close the gap that was made when the market opened today.
And here we go, we are about to start shorting with so nice opportunity to have nice profits. Our target as I've said are 32.5$ (main target), 31$ (normal target), and 28$ (main target). We should put our stop loss above the right shoulder on 39.1$ and wait for H4 candle to close above it to make sure that it's time to close the 41$ gap.
Don't forget to tell me your opinion and how you see OIL in comments! I'm waiting for you ideas
Chiao!