Which way will oil break???Here we are at the crossroads, US crude oil has put in a lower high and lower low on the hourly charts and we could see another move downwards.
This is an interesting trade as we could either see a continuation flag to the upside where we may break major resistance and pile on up to 28. Or we could see a cup and handle reversal pattern and see a retest down to 20-21. As such i'm on the sidelines waiting to see. At time of writing we just saw a breakout fakeout of the flag and so now we could see the cup and handle come into play. Or another go at the flag (5 min moving averages are indicating long trade). In these types of situations its easy to get burnt multiple times trying to trade breakouts. Better to wait until an explosive move comes in which would negate the other potential pattern.
Wticrudeoil
STALLED WEEK FOR THE OIL MARKETAfter the technical correction experienced in the market last Friday, the wrecked oil market had what is considered a flat trading week, forming a consolidation channel within 25- & 21-dollar range, market sentiment remains skeptical with investors in “sit-and-wait” mode weighting the outcomes of events in different fronts before placing their bets.
On one side, the market is waiting for April to validate the ramp-up in production announced by the Saudis that will overflow the market with the black commodity, budgetary cuts in major oil producers’ companies were also announced. And last but not least, the confirmation this week of a possible alliance between the US and Saudis to curb the damaged oil market.
The technical chart does not say much. The market is still under intense bearish pressure, trading within a consolidation channel. Here MACD also confirms a flat trading week. Moving averages reducing their falling angle.
Although not comment on the alliance front, the news was enough to booth the sentiment in the market. Big oil players are already announcing a significant cut in spending, as the oil price remains in the $20 handle. It is a fact that with current oil prices, US oilfields activity will collapse.
Additionally, as the virus continues to destroy demand, Australian refiners viva energy (ax:vea) and Caltex Australia ltd (ax:ctx) said they expect jet fuel demand to shrink by 80% to 90% due to air travel grinding close to a halt and plan to take in less crude.
With price showing enough room to fall further, the price could reach levels previously seen in 1986 or 1998 of around $10 per barrel.
Leaving aside the presumption of the ability to predict the market, technically and fundamentally speaking, the carts are on the table. Let’s stay in the “wait-and-watch” mode until further notice. Happy weekend ahead. See you next Friday.
US OIL double bottom. Big pump up?US crude posted a nice double bottom on the 15 min chart after the expected fakeoutbreakout (see other post). After taking some nice short profits on that trade this was a great long already netting some quick profits with huge momentum as we moved back into the triangle.
I'm holding 30% of position for a move higher. Will look to add again on pullbacks. Daily chart is showing a buy signal
WTI Crude Oil: Sell opportunity on a Head and Shoulders.Oil is trading within the (wider) 24.00 - 20.75 neckline of the 1H Head and Shoulders with 1H neutral (RSI = 47.139, MACD = -0.480, ADX = 27.490). With 4H below the neutral line (RSI = 39.581) we are expecting the neckline to hold and provide at least one more sell opportunity. Our Target is 21.40.
Previous short term trade:
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) | Bearlish scenario The graphs of CRUDE OIL (WTI) and BRENT OIL are very similar. However, I want to show a separate scenario for CRUDE OIL (WTI
Scenario for BRENT is BELOW
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OIL going to Retest 22.05Oil is been rejected from resistance line at $28, now oil will retest the $22,
is a double bottom, so let's see how interact with the support line.
It could be a potential breakout to the downside.
MACD and SRSI pointing down.
Also oil price could be affected by the news, so please be careful and also use SL, especially when you use leverage.
also your risk/reward is higher near the support/resistance lines (key levels)
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THE WOUNDED BEASTOil markets yesterday have experienced what is considered a technical correction, creating much expectation about a further recovery. However, it would be hard to claim that it is objectively true. Still, the market needs to deal with the Covid-19 and the disintegration of the OPEC+ alliance.
The market remains under sellers pressure, where investor and traders are still weighting the immediate impact in the global economy with the spread in different latitudes of the virus, newly affected countries are considering stronger lockdowns, that definitely will create mayhem in the oil demand.
Today's weekly report will have two charts to explain and easily spot the bearish pressure in the weekly reign and the technical correction in the H4 domain. In W1 (weekly charts) Oil has recorded a 69.20% plunge from its January high reaching levels last seen in Feb 2002, next support level from 1998 at 16.24 could be achieved even with economic stimulus announcements and the end of the price war between the Saudis and Russians. It would take time for the oil market to cope with the intense never seen disruption in the demand before finally correcting.
Now in the H4 domain (4 hours charts), the price experienced a recovery of 38% from its lowest level, never seen before, giving some enthusiasm to the market. Some experts said it was due to Trump's proposal on increasing the national oil reserves supporting the American drillers hammered by the plunge in oil prices. However, personal opinion, this was a more technical correction after reaching a critical demand zone of $20 per barrel; bulls were sitting there expecting to fill up their orders, and clearly, it just happens, pushing the price action back to the daily moving averages. Finding resistance close to 50 Fibonacci level price action is still under a clear bearish bias, where the last line of defense for the bears could be the next Fibonacci level at around 61.8. Now, 50 EMA and 200 MA continue in bright free fall. MACD (not displayed in the chart sorry) showed some bullish divergence that confirmed this encountered correction. The market will continue to check on the Bulls' endurance for this short-term correction.
As a last note, this downturn in prices for the oil producer dependent countries could vanish governments revenues by up to 85%, for instance, Venezuela, Ecuador, Iraq, Nigeria, Angola are at particular risk, opening the door for the international financial institution to step in and take extraordinary measures. Iraq's oil minister had pledged the call for an emergency meeting with the OPEC this week when price tested the $26 handle, with no confirmation on that front yet, let's get into the weekend and see what next week will bring to the market.
WTI Oil: Rising Wedge towards 24.40.The bounce on yesterday's 20.00 low has been met with strong buying towards the end of the session, making a bottom sequence and today the price appears to be consolidating. This resembles the Rising Wedge of the previous sharp sell-off sequence on March 9th.
After making Higher Lows, the pattern topped slightly above the first High. With 1H technicals largely mixed (RSI = 41.112, ADX = 21.510, MACD = -0.760), we are expecting this to make Higher Low and bounce towards a 24.40 top.
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OIL WAR, Will it End ?!Descending Channel coming to an end, Price has been respecting the channel twice, approaching for the 3rd touch to validate a Long term Buy Opportunity on OIL, again we wait for the market and its reactions.
Note : We are seeing it in the Monthly Time Frame, you might want to check lower Time Frames Before Jumping to a Trade.
Trade Safe.
USOIL | Death Cross on Weekly ChartPlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
50 and 200 Weekly MAs are close to produce the death crossover. It's a bearish sign and usually a strong confirmation the decline will continue. However on the chart we see the situation where the Death Cross was ignored and price stopped the declining and later started to grow (it happens because losses are already booked and the confirmation comes too late). We might have the same situation now if price will hold the horizontal support zone, otherwise we have a high chance the decline will continue.
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Oil good long term entry. R:R7 50% Solid long term support and bullish divergence on Daily.
This looks like a good long opportunity to me
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USOIL | More DownsidePlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
Price formed a bearish pennant and failed to fill the Gap. The further decline is expected
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advice.