WTICOUSD is still looking forward to the long.WTICOUSD is still looking forward to the long. Due to a new fractal rule in the exchange rate, we have not entered a long position yet. Namely, the structure of the falling wave of the exchange rate decreases with a "halved ATR". Therefore, the resulting fractal may also have half the amplitude of the previous fractal. Therefore, we are looking forward to long-term entry. In our reading, the main trend is still northward.
Wticrudeoil
WTI Crude Oil: Touched the 1W MA200. Potential Support & ReboundOil has completed three red weeks, making a strong correction since the Iranian crisis. In doing so, the price has just made contact with the 1W MA200 (orange trend line) and since the 1W chart turned neutral (RSI = 45.808, STOCH = 47.665, CCI = -38.1509, MACD = 0.520, ADX = 23.460) we may have a Support and a valid long term buy level.
Notice how the 1W MA200 has been providing Support since mid January 2019, making this a full year of Support for Oil. This is a strong indication that buyers are accumulating periodically here. The same sequence is spotted in 2016/2017 with the 1W MA50 providing this time Support for 1 full year. The pattern is quite similar.
Based on the above we've set a medium term Target at 63.50 and a long term at 69.00.
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USOIL Look Ahead for week starting 1/19/20The future USOIL, symbol CL, is in a Bear Market with price trading above the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 week ema. The long term emas are mostly flat, indicative of an accumulation / distribution zone. Price has closed below the 13 ema at 58.85 on the weekly, so therefore, the Bear Market Rally can be considered over. Last week was a red bodied candle with a long lower wick, which is known as a Hammer. Hammers are bottoming candles that have to be confirmed by the next candle trading higher, preferable a long green candle. Price action tested a long term trend line, but did not close below it. The larger cycle period length Elliott Wave implies a rally above 66.58 to complete this primary b-wave.
The Market is in a Bear Market on the daily, with price below the 13 ema and the 50 ema which are still above both the 200 and 800 emas, but the 200 ema, at 57.81 still below the 800 ema, at 58.36. Price broke below a long-term trend line last week, implying a potential trend change. A likely down side target for this x-wave sell-off are the 200 and 800 emas. We’re still in an downtrend as long as each day closes below the 9 &13 emas at 59.48. We got a couple dojis as part of a morning star pattern last week, implying a potential bottom. With the emas flat and as close together as they are, we are likely to see a lot of trading range activity, stop hunts, and all kinds of other malfeasance until the Real Bottom on this x-wave gets put in. This is the kind of market that chews up trading accounts.
The Market is in a deep correction of a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price below the 30 and 50 emas, which are above the 200 ema, at 59.51, which is above the 800 ema at 57.83. Price would have to close back above the 9 & 13 ema, at 58.53 to consider the correction over. The way this market is trading expect a retest of the lows…
This is my USOIL look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
WTI Crude Oil: Buy opportunity on a Rising Wedge.Oil is currently trading sideways within the 1D MA200 (orange line acting as a Support) at 57.40 and the 1D MA50 (blue line acting as a Resistance) at 58.90. This is basically the price attempting to create a Support Zone following the 65.70 High after the Iranian tensions (1D turning neutral because of this consolidation with RSI = 44.650, MACD = -0.250, ADX = 33.237).
This price action has created a Rising Wedge (displayed by the dashed red lines). A key characteristic is that every time its RSI hits the dashed line shown on the chart it reaches a bottom and gradually starts rising again. Assuming the 1D MA50 breaks, then this scenario (gradual rise on the Wedge's Higher Low line) becomes valid. Our Target remains 66.00 (close to the April 23rd High).
A break below the 57.40 S1 however risks further drop to Support 2 = 55.00 and if that breaks as well then total reversal towards the 1W Support.
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USOIL Look Ahead for week starting 1/12/20The future USOIL, symbol CL, is in a Bear Market Rally with price trading above the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 week ema. The 50 week ema is currently slightly up trending, but by and large the long term emas are mostly flat. This implies an accumulation/distribution zone. Price would have to close below the 13 ema at 58.86 on the weekly for the Rally to be considered over. Last week was an ugly long red candle which formed a dark cloud candle pattern, and marking the top of the intermediate cycle time frame c-wave top of the b-wave. The larger cycle period length Elliott Wave implies a rally above 66.58 to complete this primary b-wave.
The Market is in a correction of a Bear Market Rally on the daily, with price below the 13 ema, but above the 50 ema which is above both the 200 and 800 emas, but the 200 ema, at 57.79 still below the 800 ema, at 58.36. Price is testing a long-term trend line zone and just broke below the 9/13/30 emas this last week and is testing the 50ema. A likely down side target for this x-wave sell-off are the 200 and 800 emas. We’re still in an downtrend as long as each day closes below the 9 &13 emas at 60.70.
The Market is in a correction of a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price below the 9/13/30/50 emas, which are above the 200 ema, at 59.90, which is above the 800 ema at 57.79. Price would have to close back above the 9 & 13 ema, at 59.82 to consider the correction over. The Oil Market is selling off as a result of the succession of US tensions with Iran.
With a likely calm weekend, I’m expecting the oil futures to open in a positive light, but test the lower trend lines and emas, in the early part of the week, then bounce in to the later part of the week to complete wave form patterns. The over-all trend is down on the longer time frames, but there is a feeling that this is the quiet before the storm. Hostilities in the Middle East could unexpectedly show up at any point and cause prices to rocket back up.
This is my USOIL look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
USOIL AnalysisDear Traders,
Due to US-Iran conflict, Crude has been unstable, now that the US is not responding "violent" as expected, the oil could move stable and respect the next support area that could be a nice entry to long/buy with strict stop if it is not respected.
this is my setup for next week:
USOil Buy at 58.40
Stop Loss at 57.50
TP 1 at 61.05
TP2 at 62.20
Good Luck guys and Happy weekend!!
WTI Crude Oil should drop to correctionWTI hit the 63.50 target.
Now from a technical perspective USOIL needs to pullback at least to the 200 EMA level of 59.50. Potential of entering back the channel.
Non-commercial's are holding massive amounts of longs (91%). They should start closing, changing the trend of the WTI Crude Oil.
And of course, all of the above is valid only if fundamentals are matching the direction for this commodity. In order for that to happen we need to see the de-escalation of tensions between Iran and the US. And our view on it is that they will loose tensions in the following weeks.
WTI Crude Oil: Buy the pull back. Potential for $66.00.Oil has hit the 63.90 1W Resistance and is naturally retracing, despite the Middle East geopolitics and lower than expected Crude Oil Inventories today. This is purely a technical reaction upon reaching a long term Resistance level and 1D approaching the sell zone (RSI = 68.142, ADX = 54.212). We are expecting a pull back towards the 60.00 Symmetrical Support or the 1D MA50, which we will buy. Target: 66.00.
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Fresh Mind Oil analysis and My Trading Plan The latest analysis was made a little unclear :-) There are three scenarios for the daily and four hour periods. But each of them implies a reduction in oil prices in the near future. I am interested in making money next month, and oil provides such an opportunity.
Can WTI Make the Six-day Winning StreakWTI rose to levels not seen since September 17 yesterday as weekly stockpiles data showed a reduction in reserves. Monthly Crude oil has climbed over 9% in December and is showing upward momentum.
Ultimately, the market looks as if it is trying to close through the resistance barrier that extends to the $62.50 level, so it’s likely that we will continue to see buyers come back in on dips. We don't have interest in shorting that market. But, of course, it could be susceptible to bits of exhaustion.
Overbought conditions of RSI indicator raise worries of a pullback towards psychological $60 level now. In event of a breakout there a fresh decline to 61.8% of the daily Fibonacci retracement at $58.63, can be expected.
Now the pair is struggling around 78,6% Fibo level (there is also the upper line of daily Bollinger Bands) and we're looking for Buy position in that area. Cause sustainable move above it could send the price higher to the September top at $63.33.
What is your positioning on that instrument?
WTI Oil: Short term Buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil is on a short term Channel Up on the 1H chart (RSI = 52.630, MACD = 0.040, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). Those neutral technical indicators suggest that we may be near a buy level and as we see on the chart the price is indeed near the Higher Low trend line.
Additionally we see a double tier Support level provided 1st by the 1H MA50 and 2nd by the MA200. So far we've bounced on the MA50. The RSI also bounced right above the Buy Zone for December. Based on those signals we are expecting a structured rise to a new Higher High at 61.40.
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Selling WTI expecting 4% dropEXPECTING BEARISH WTI
As seen in the screen shots released in the chat and trade alert channel... we see that WTI is currently at the top of its range and at an important resistance level which is the upper trend line, connect that with RSI being at the overbought zone and we have a higher probability of selling over buying.
The pattern we are trading is a CONTRACTION REVERSAL pattern which ususally has high chances of bears taking over.
WTI is Trading Sideway Around 61.8% FiboOil fell from its highest close in almost 3 months after the API inventory reported a build bearish to consciences while uncertainly over the December tariff deferral added to the soft tone. The WTI Crude oil has been trading around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its September-October declines and the price action here will determine the next move direction.
Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve will be in the spotlight today and if policymakers sound positive about economic conditions, crude prices could respond with gains.
The key resistance level to watch on WTI now is $60. However, with OPEC cutting production by another 500,000 barrels and beyond that the extension of the 1.2 million barrels cut, one would think that there is the possibility of a breakout. This will be further exacerbated if the US and China come together with any type of “phase 1 deal.” In this event we could see further upside pressure towards $61, followed by 62.55 - 63 resistance. Otherwise, we expect a lot of sideways action over the next several days.
On the downside, the energy benchmark is expected to find support at $58.50, and a fall through could take it to the next support area of 58.00 - 57.50. There are located 200- day SMA and the middle lice of Bollinger Bands. We're expect the uptrend line bellow to provide a support.
WTI Oil: Buy opportunity on the pull back.Oil made the expected Higher High on the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 56.507, MACD = 0.750, Highs/Lows = 0.1029, as forecasted on the buy call below:
At the moment the 4H RSI has reached the 1-month peak and is consolidating, a sign that normally indicates the start of a pull back within the Channel Up in order to price a Higher Low. If the 4H MA50 breaks (so far held once on Friday), we are expecting a full retrace to the Buy Zone within the Higher Low and MA200. Our Target Zone then will be 59.80 - 60.90.
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