Fresh Mind Oil analysis and My Trading Plan The latest analysis was made a little unclear :-) There are three scenarios for the daily and four hour periods. But each of them implies a reduction in oil prices in the near future. I am interested in making money next month, and oil provides such an opportunity.
Wticrudeoil
Can WTI Make the Six-day Winning StreakWTI rose to levels not seen since September 17 yesterday as weekly stockpiles data showed a reduction in reserves. Monthly Crude oil has climbed over 9% in December and is showing upward momentum.
Ultimately, the market looks as if it is trying to close through the resistance barrier that extends to the $62.50 level, so it’s likely that we will continue to see buyers come back in on dips. We don't have interest in shorting that market. But, of course, it could be susceptible to bits of exhaustion.
Overbought conditions of RSI indicator raise worries of a pullback towards psychological $60 level now. In event of a breakout there a fresh decline to 61.8% of the daily Fibonacci retracement at $58.63, can be expected.
Now the pair is struggling around 78,6% Fibo level (there is also the upper line of daily Bollinger Bands) and we're looking for Buy position in that area. Cause sustainable move above it could send the price higher to the September top at $63.33.
What is your positioning on that instrument?
WTI Oil: Short term Buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil is on a short term Channel Up on the 1H chart (RSI = 52.630, MACD = 0.040, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). Those neutral technical indicators suggest that we may be near a buy level and as we see on the chart the price is indeed near the Higher Low trend line.
Additionally we see a double tier Support level provided 1st by the 1H MA50 and 2nd by the MA200. So far we've bounced on the MA50. The RSI also bounced right above the Buy Zone for December. Based on those signals we are expecting a structured rise to a new Higher High at 61.40.
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Selling WTI expecting 4% dropEXPECTING BEARISH WTI
As seen in the screen shots released in the chat and trade alert channel... we see that WTI is currently at the top of its range and at an important resistance level which is the upper trend line, connect that with RSI being at the overbought zone and we have a higher probability of selling over buying.
The pattern we are trading is a CONTRACTION REVERSAL pattern which ususally has high chances of bears taking over.
WTI is Trading Sideway Around 61.8% FiboOil fell from its highest close in almost 3 months after the API inventory reported a build bearish to consciences while uncertainly over the December tariff deferral added to the soft tone. The WTI Crude oil has been trading around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its September-October declines and the price action here will determine the next move direction.
Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve will be in the spotlight today and if policymakers sound positive about economic conditions, crude prices could respond with gains.
The key resistance level to watch on WTI now is $60. However, with OPEC cutting production by another 500,000 barrels and beyond that the extension of the 1.2 million barrels cut, one would think that there is the possibility of a breakout. This will be further exacerbated if the US and China come together with any type of “phase 1 deal.” In this event we could see further upside pressure towards $61, followed by 62.55 - 63 resistance. Otherwise, we expect a lot of sideways action over the next several days.
On the downside, the energy benchmark is expected to find support at $58.50, and a fall through could take it to the next support area of 58.00 - 57.50. There are located 200- day SMA and the middle lice of Bollinger Bands. We're expect the uptrend line bellow to provide a support.
WTI Oil: Buy opportunity on the pull back.Oil made the expected Higher High on the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 56.507, MACD = 0.750, Highs/Lows = 0.1029, as forecasted on the buy call below:
At the moment the 4H RSI has reached the 1-month peak and is consolidating, a sign that normally indicates the start of a pull back within the Channel Up in order to price a Higher Low. If the 4H MA50 breaks (so far held once on Friday), we are expecting a full retrace to the Buy Zone within the Higher Low and MA200. Our Target Zone then will be 59.80 - 60.90.
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WTI Crude OilFundamental :
OPEC and Russia decided to deepen the existing 1.2 million barrels per day cut in output by additional 500,000 barrels per day through the end of March 2020.
Technical :
58.62 become bullish key level, if this level break up, bullish target at 62.11 (September high)
We have support zone at 58.63 to 57.42
Trading plan 1 :
We can buy right now at 58.62
or wait at support 58.08
Stoploss bellow 57.47
target at 62.11
Trading Plan 2 :
Buy long after bullish key level break up above 58.62
Stoploss bellow 58.03
target at 62.11
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WTI OIL Bullish Trading planPattern: 1D Channel Up.
Signal: Bullish as the price broke the 58.80 Symmetrical Resistance, which (excluding the Saudi attack on September 16th) has been holding since July.
Target: 61.00 (1st 1W Resistance) and if the Lower High trend line (red bold) of the Descending Triangle breaks, 63.50 (2nd 1W Resistance).
See how accurate the 1W Descending Triangle has been on my last Support Buy:
WTI Crude Oil Preparing for OPEC MeetingThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday, bouncing from the uptrend line and reaching towards and above the 50-day SMA initially. The crude oil market kick off the week with rally, as an Iraq oil minister suggested that not only would OPEC continue its production cuts, but it would possibly even consider cutting an additional 400,000 barrels a day. The rally ran into a brick wall though as President Trump announced new tariffs in Latin America and threatened new ones on Europe.
At the end of the day Brent crude and WTI gave up their gains to finish almost unchanged. Now WTI crude oil is showing convergence with its hourly 20 SMA and trading below its 50 SMA on the same chart.
Near-term action is weighed by Friday’s massive bearish daily candle, with Friday’s close below 38.2% Fibo support at $55.78 (on last 2 months rise of $50.55 to $58.71) adding to negative near-term tone, which is expected to persist while recovery attempts remain capped by daily high ($58.15).
It is because of this that the $55 level underneath will offer plenty of support, but if it does in fact get broken, the market should goes down towards the $52.50 level (78.6% Fibo).
On the upside, the daily 200 SMA line remain relevant and are additional barriers against upward movement. The first resistance is at 56.50. Next is resistance from the 200-EMA at 57.51.
Overall, we believe that the market is going to continue the overall uptrend and channel for the rest of the week, but it will more than likely be very choppy, and news driven.
WTI Oil: Medium term Buy opportunity.Oil took a hard hit last Friday towards the 54.85 1D Support. Technically this makes a perfect Higher Low on the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 47.115, MACD = 0.310, ADX = 20.203, Highs/Lows = -0.4050). On top of that the 4H RSI is on the lowest level since early August, so we are taking this as a strong medium term buy opportunity. Our Target Zone is 58.00 - 58.70 (region within the 4H gap fill and 1D Resistance).
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WTI Could Test $58 Key ResistanceOil posted its biggest percentage decline in nearly 2 months after reports indicated Russia is unlikely to lower production at the upcoming OPEC meeting. WTI dropped towards its 7-week support trend line, but after that rebounded from $ 55.00 and 200-day SMA on H4 chart.
Earlier on Wednesday, the EIA reported that overall Crude stocks rose 1.4 Mb, about in line with consensus for a 1.5 Mb. However, the market latched on to the fact inventories at Cushing fell 2.3 Mb barrels, the most significant drop in 3 months.
When you look out over the last couple of months, we essentially have been forming an uptrend and bullish channel, and as a result we could very easily go higher. The nearest resistance is near $57.17 at 50% Fibo level on the recent fall from 63.38 to 51.06 (4-hours). A clear break there will extend the rise for testing key resistance $58. It corespondent to the upper border of the current range. In that area the market could see a bit of market memory where sellers could come back in. Conversely, if the price fails to continue under $56.50, it could resume its decline.
Ultimately, we like the idea of buying short-term pullbacks. But we're looking for any type of major breakout in one direction or the other, since the market have found a bit of an equilibrium in the last month.
West Texas Oil - follow channelANALYSIS ON West Texas Oil
Welcome to my analysis
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2HR CHart
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Interesting Point of interest In the West Texas Oil pair.
- Price above 200 day EMA.
- look for buy signals.
- Expecting some minor downward movement.
- Watch 59.00 for take profit.
- MACD showing bullish divergence
Stay Tuned