OIl Closed above countertrend resistance , confirming move upOIl Closed above countertrend resistance , confirming move up. Probably last move up for this uptrend.
Wticrudeoil
Crude Oil Markets Seems Try to Recover After Initially FallingRecently, the oil market follow the general run of risk sentiment. However, oil markets are still weaker this morning despite the rebound in risk sentiment.
The last main story in oil markets was the news over the weekend of the discovery of new oil reserves by Iran. They were reported to have discovered an oil field containing the equivalent of 53bn barrels of oil. However, it is not clear how much of that is new or commercially viable. The last thing OPEC needs is more oil discoveries given oil’s current level of abundance...
In spite of a large inventory build the net long oil positions on US crude increased last week for the third consecutive week mainly due to the tariff rollback headlines. So without a reaffirmation of progress between the US and China, these new contracts remain susceptible to headline risk and even a long position squeeze.
Technically, on the daily chart the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially fell towards the $56 level underneath before turning around and showing signs of strength. At this point, the market looks very likely to turn around and try to reach towards the $58 level. Breaking through that level of course would be very bullish but will run into a significant amount of trouble near the $60 level. In that area is located 78.6% Fibo retracement level (of the fall from the Sept. high 63.68 to the October low $51.06) at $60.77.
To the downside, there is a significant amount of support near the 200-day EMA which is closer to the $55.40 level. Underneath there, the $54 - 53.70 area be targeted for support as well.
Looking at the overall market though, we are essentially in a massive consolidation area.
WTI Oil: Sell and Buy entries within the Channel Up.Oil hit our last buy target (57.30) and the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 58.982, MACD = 0.300, Highs/Lows = 1.1300) is near its Higher High trend line. As mentioned since October 16th, the Higher Highs of the Channel are symmetrical with the Lower Lows of September's downtrend (see that idea below):
We are expecting a similar price action with a rebound near the 4H MA200 (55.00). Our long Target is 58.50.
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Oil Getting Bearish Bias - Move to 47-48$ likely Currently @ ResThis is continuation of this idea :
We had a slight flush above resistance but then the downtrending line did work perfectly 3 times.
WTI Oil: Long signal on the Higher Low. Golden Cross emerging.Oil has been trading within a 4H Channel Up (RSI = 53.399, MACD = 0.280, Highs/Lows = -0.0057) since the beginning of October. Today the pattern made a Higher Low and naturally the price rebounded above the 4H MA200 (orange line). The expected target is 57.30 which is marginally under the 57.70 Top of the current bullish leg (safer call).
If you remember our last call, the Higher Highs of the Channel are symmetrical with the Lower Lows of Septembers downtrend. See how accurately this pattern traded:
Also keep in mind that 4H is about to form a Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) which is a bullish pattern and last time that happened in September 6th, Oil hit the 63.35 High in 10 days.
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WTI Double top, negative convergence divergence...Looks like we are going back to the 55.50 dollar level at least...
Crude Oil Range Trading Zone.Hi Trader,
Last 2 Days Crude Oil Trading in Chart Mention Zone Only.
Once the Zone is Broken We will see further movement...
WTI Crude Oil: Buy opportunity within a Channel Up.Oil has been trading within a 4H Channel Up (RSI = 46.297, ADX = 36.695) since the October 3rd 51.00 bottom and is currently on its Higher Low zone. This makes it an optimal buy opportunity for the short term. The Highs within the Channel appear to be filling the Lower Lows of the downtrend sequence that led to the 51.00 bottom. Based on this the next Target (Higher High) should be near 55.50 where it will also make contact with the 4H MA200 (orange line).
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XAUUSD (GOLD) SHORTAnalysis team placed short on XAUUSD @1487.50 with 2 targets on 15th October, 2019:
TP1 @1473.24
TP2 @1450
WIT Crude Long Term outlook. With the overall move towards more sustainable energy sources, I would certainly expect the demand for oil to diminish over the next 100 years. However, we don't trade off such macro perspectives. While certainly in a downtrend, Crude has been posting some predicable and identifiable chart patterns. A bounce back to test the downtrend line is certainly a possibility. Additionally, the EIA (The US Energy Information Administration) increased its demand forecast for crude in 2020. Baring some explosive trade war news or some other recessionary spark, I would imagine the price to claw its way back up over the next few months.
Keep and eye on it over the next few months!
