WTI Crude oil - front expirationTechnical Analysis:
Support level $75 looks like resisting. After the forecasted rebound, seems the market stay cautious with a triangle formation on hourly time frame.
Scenarios:
1. Scenario 1 - Positive continuation till the first target (ABC intraday structure).
Strategy for Scenario 1:
- On consolidation above $77 set the position's Delta to positive, following your investment criteria.
- First target: $78.50
- Strategy on reaching target 1: Set the position's Delta to zero
- Second target: $79.50
- Strategy on reaching target 2: Set the position's Delta to zero
2. Scenario 2 - Negative Acceleration. If the price breaks down below today's low of $76.50, we could see a further decline to around $75 from where restart a rebound. Only a breakdown of 74.91 would indicate a negative acceleration in price.
Strategy for Scenario 2:
- Set the position's Delta to negative, following your investment criteria.
- First target: $75
- Strategy on reaching target 1: Set the position's Delta to zero
- Second target: $72.50
- Strategy on reaching target 2: Set the position's Delta to zero
Summary:
The technical analysis suggests a potential short term technical rebound. We consider a positive rebound strategy if the price hold level $75 and till $79.5/$80 area, where we will consider close wave 4. On the close of wave 4 or a price drops below $74.91 we will consider a short strategy.
Make sure to follow your investment and adjust your position's Delta accordingly to manage your risk.
Investment criteria we highly recommend:
CONSERVATIVE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.20
MODERATE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.30
AGGRESSIVE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.40
Please note that investing in derivatives involves hight risks. We strongly advise against invest in future or options naked (not hedged), and to carefully follow your investment strategy criteria and risk management.
Delta Zero
Technical Analysis team
